Best Thread Potential setups

[grimweasel]

It used to make me over the top furious but when I realised it happened just as often in my favour, it didnt bother me so much.

Even if you start putting your stops a few pips higher/lower to try and avoid it, its still going to happen!

What I do is I think of the stop as a bet saying 'I bet abc market isnt going to touch that stop', as soon as it touches the stop - end of bet. I was wrong and its 100% irrelevant what happens next (ie: market reversing after 1 pip) because its not going to affect me in any way

Sounds like you had a unlucky Monday morning Grim, hope its not pissed you off too much

Cheers 1pipped.
A good lesson in leaving orders in the market and gap plays. Forex gaps are not that common (as compared to shares) so I guess I just 'forgot' and was punished! I had orders in on the Fri daily pins. The charts I guess could not predict the decision making process for the US Government (or could they??), so I'm not going to beat myself up, just learn from it. Every days a school day, as they say!Grim

 

[PaulKing]

Cable - hourly pin

Any one else see this on EURUSD? (please ignore the post title, its not cable, although cable does have a similar pin on the hourly)
Given the excitement today I am not sure if its with or counter trend. Still see what happens as I have taken it with a stop just below the nose!



I have gone for 1:1, as I don't usually look at lower than 4 hour tf

 

[grimweasel]

Paul,
I have placed and order in above the pin at 17650. Stop at base 17550.
On a seperate issue, IG are reporting problems with the LSE feed this morning and the fact trading was suspended also for a period? Anyone else hear anything?
Grim

 

[trader_dante]

Any one else see this?

Given the excitement today I am not sure if its with or counter trend. Still see what happens as I have taken it with a stop just below the nose!

View attachment 39676

I have gone for 1:1, as I don't usually look at lower than 4 hour tf

There are quite a few hourly pins. I nearly got in this cable one but of all of them I prefer the NZD/USD hourly.

 

[jonj]

e/u pin retracement to 38.2 fib level. good time to look for a few pips???

 

[eltrot1979]

Hey TD, I was wondering what your thoughts were on wheat? I was eying a long off of the 4 hr pin from Friday, but it seems the market gapped up and has come down again during electronic trading. Last time I looked the pin hadn't been invalidated, but this mornings activity has left me not so confident in the pin any more and i'll proabaly wait for some further PA. I had a nice short down from the rather large 4 hour pin at the last swing high a couple of weeks ago and was hoping to ride it back up, but who knows, maybe it will break though this strong support and fall further - hopefully PA will show us the way!

 

[options]

Excellent pin on eur/usd.

The fake afterwards is almost believable.

 

[rawrschach]

Yea I'm in on that too.

 

[PaulKing]

There are quite a few hourly pins. I nearly got in this cable one but of all of them I prefer the NZD/USD hourly.

Now that sorts the men from the boys. You chose to go with the one that went one way from triggering, is now +25 (having seen +40 or 1:1 achieved). I on the other hand am bouncing around breakeven, having ridden the retracement bus to -40 (having seen +10 once or twice)

That's experience in action. Well done TD!

 

[trader_dante]

Now that sorts the men from the boys. You chose to go with the one that went one way from triggering, is now +25 (having seen +40 or 1:1 achieved). I on the other hand am bouncing around breakeven, having ridden the retracement bus to -40 (having seen +10 once or twice)

That's experience in action. Well done TD!

Hey Paul,

I personally didn't like the Euro pin as of all the gaps I am watching, the Euro was the only one that not only filled it but made new lows (taking out the low of Fridays session).

This indicated a lot of weakness to me. With a little time (and discretion) you get to see which pins are caused by a pause in the fall i.e. a natural and expected retracement and which ones are actually buyers positioning at a level.

NZD/USD outperformed like you said and was good for a quick 1:1 but even this is turning down now...

I've currently got an order to sell Dollar:Yen at 108.13 targetting 107.85 and then 107.75 (three quarters and the full gap -5 ticks respectively). R:R is not the best but I think it is a fairly high probability trade.

There is a similar play on the S&P which has much further to fall to fill the gap and correlates with a short Dollar:Yen position although of the two I would still hit the Dollar as the highs of the hourly consolidation are off a more clearly defined resistance level than those of the S&P.

 

[grimweasel]

GBPCAD,
Pin formed on S level at 18700, retraced to level with pin low, inside bar next then broke to the upside. (1hr chart). Next R level at 18960 on 4hr. I'm long on the break of the pin high at 1100.
Grim

 

[jev]

Hi trader_dante

Hey Paul,

I first joined this forum back in April when I stumbled across various threads where you were teaching your theory on chart analyis dating back to early last year....I have come back to this forum to look for those threads but not sure where they were...can you help me find them.

I have been trading various markets for a year now with various degrees of success and failure. I was hoping to fine tune my charting analysis by finishing reading your threads.

Are you still following those methods or are they now defunct in todays more volatile markets?

 

[omni]

Hey trader_dante,
Why do you target 3/4 of the gap?

 

[trader_dante]

Hey trader_dante,
Why do you target 3/4 of the gap?

Incase it does exactly what it's doing now, which is fill it by three quarters and then bounce.

 

[omni]

Incase it does exactly what it's doing now, which is fill it by three quarters and then bounce.

Cheers, i never knew it filled 3/4 on average.

 

[trader_dante]

Cheers, i never knew it filled 3/4 on average.

Neither did I, I'm just playing a defensive game right now.

Can't let Parkinsons down, now, can we?

Just scratched two trades on it after seeing them up 27 ticks and 24 ticks respectively.

Think I might leave it now. I hate the Yen, it has a habit of squeezing and making you very uncomfortable.

 

[trader_dante]

If this hits my target now, that's it, I'm retiring!

 

[grimweasel]

I stopped out my Cable long on the opposite pin that formed and recycled the trade to GBPCAD.
Grim
Fair play to IG too. They reinstated my Euro/GBP short from last night as I called them up. They checked with other feed providers and agreed my stop was not hit and filled me back into the trade at the stop price (8097). Good show really,
Grim

 

[omni]

Hey Grim,
I have found IG to be a pretty fair lot too. Glad to hear someone else got similar treatment.

 

[lewtz]

I don't get how anyone is willing to take pins against the dollar right now. There has not been any slow down in it's rallying. If I were you guys, I would at least wait for a break + pull back before entering that stuff. Just my opinion of course!