Best Thread Potential setups

[candles]

lets see.

 

[Joey25]

EURGBP Daily

Similar to the MrGecko one earlier, except the fib retracement is drawn from the 5th March swing low.

The key for me is that the the support today has been found at the first test of the late Jan /early Feb breakout level of 0.9083

If today ends pretty similarly to where we are right now, I would choose to play it with a Buy Limit order retrace of the Pin at about 0.9130 (the level from 10th March which today has auctioned through).

First resistance anticipated at 0.9230 (day-before-yesterday's low).

 

[haircut]

Hi Guys any thoughts on this Daily pin bar forming on oil.
Its on a 38.2 and 61.8 fib lines and near a line of support and trend line I have drawn
supported by the daily 50ema
What do we think??

Wish I had took this one need to have the courage of my convictions

 

[Black Swan]

Wish I had took this one need to have the courage of my convictions

in Baz Luhrmann 'sunscreen' voice repeat these six words when in that mindset;

"what's the worst that could happen?"
YouTube - Everybody's Free to Wear Sunscreen! (ORIGINAL VERSION)

 

[Joey25]

USDCHF Daily

Looks like it could be my favourite pattern developing in USDCHF.

Provided it closes back within range:

Inside bar, followed by a downside rejection of the "holding candle", with support found at a previous region of balance.

The principle is that the bears have been caught offside, adding momentum to the upside breakout of the range, if it occurs.

 

[trader_dante]

Tomorrow I will be looking for opportunities to buy EUR/GBP (due to the daily pin shown in earlier posts by others) and sell the Bund after the massive rejection off of the 124.70 resistance (again).

These are the only two plays I will be concerned with tomorrow.

 

[trader_dante]

Guys, I know this is a potential setups thread but just wanted to say that a good exercise for people is to mark their entries and exits on a chart and then follow the progress of that market after they come out. (obviously this is easier for me when I only do about 2 trades per week lol)

Follow the progress of the market until it comes back to your original stop loss. Then calculate how much percentage of the move you actually made.

This will teach you one VERY important thing:

It will teach you that it is not the frequency with which you trade which makes you the money, it is how well you manage the trade.

I've used my last trade for March as an example. I chose not to follow my normal exit strategy with this one...big mistake.

Entry on break higher of IB that is marked with the arrow. Stop loss was the yellow line (never hit). Exit was marked by the right price marker.

As you can see, at the time I thought I had nailed it pretty well as for the next 12 hours, price was lower than where I actually came out. So it looks like I came out near the top of the swing.

All well and good.

However, now you can see that I took 51 pips out of a 448 pip move.

Or a mere 11.38% of the entire move which is still in play.

And when you read this in light of my earlier post you will see that I only made 188.5 pips OVER 10 TRADES in an entire month.

So, staying with this ONE TRADE would have well over doubled my entire monthly income.

Obviously, a good trader shouldn't get in the habit of saying "if only" because hindsight is 20/20 and at the time we act according to probabilities and experience.

However, one should always be striving to improve their game and this exercise puts a lot of things in perspective.

 

[neil]

Td

Guys, I know this is a potential setups thread but just wanted to say that a good exercise for people is to mark their entries and exits on a chart and then follow the progress of that market after they come out. (obviously this is easier for me when I only do about 2 trades per week lol)

Follow the progress of the market until it comes back to your original stop loss. Then calculate how much percentage of the move you actually made.

This will teach you one VERY important thing:

It will teach you that it is not the frequency with which you trade which makes you the money, it is how well you manage the trade.

I've used my last trade for March as an example. I chose not to follow my normal exit strategy with this one...big mistake.

Entry on break higher of IB that is marked with the arrow. Stop loss was the yellow line (never hit). Exit was marked by the right price marker.

As you can see, at the time I thought I had nailed it pretty well as for the next 12 hours, price was lower than where I actually came out. So it looks like I came out near the top of the swing.

All well and good.

However, now you can see that I took 51 pips out of a 448 pip move.

Or a mere 11.38% of the entire move which is still in play.

And when you read this in light of my earlier post you will see that I only made 188.5 pips OVER 10 TRADES in an entire month.

So, staying with this ONE TRADE would have well over doubled my entire monthly income.

Obviously, a good trader shouldn't get in the habit of saying "if only" because hindsight is 20/20 and at the time we act according to probabilities and experience.

However, one should always be striving to improve their game and this exercise puts a lot of things in perspective.

Seems a reasonable exit. However, people like me who have a small stable of currencies/Indecis would simply need to keep checking the charts. The overnight gbp trade would have evaded attention but a check in the morning would have detected another move up away from your stop. Since you trade for a living maybe you scan a large number of products searching for set ups?

 

[tradedays]

I'm living this at the moment, long in GBPUSD since 31/03, on the daily and 4hr i wouldn't consider exit. But, it has found some res on the hourly, and been stuck for a long while. Now I know I shouldn't be looking at the H1 charts when trading a daily setup but I am well up and its been my biggest ever trade to date which has revitalised my confidence in this business (self taught and made all the mistakes). My gut instinct tells me its fuelling for the next leg up but i'm tempted to exit now and log a good trade...it could be a great trade though...It should be a mechanical thing, but as you said earlier "be prepared to go from a 293 pip win to a 30 pip loss" I guess as it continues to print higher highs and lows on the daily and 4hr I'll tough it out and use the same rules that got me into the trade. Its so easy to cut a profit short.

Guys, I know this is a potential setups thread but just wanted to say that a good exercise for people is to mark their entries and exits on a chart and then follow the progress of that market after they come out. (obviously this is easier for me when I only do about 2 trades per week lol)

Follow the progress of the market until it comes back to your original stop loss. Then calculate how much percentage of the move you actually made.

This will teach you one VERY important thing:

It will teach you that it is not the frequency with which you trade which makes you the money, it is how well you manage the trade.

I've used my last trade for March as an example. I chose not to follow my normal exit strategy with this one...big mistake.

Entry on break higher of IB that is marked with the arrow. Stop loss was the yellow line (never hit). Exit was marked by the right price marker.

As you can see, at the time I thought I had nailed it pretty well as for the next 12 hours, price was lower than where I actually came out. So it looks like I came out near the top of the swing.

All well and good.

However, now you can see that I took 51 pips out of a 448 pip move.

Or a mere 11.38% of the entire move which is still in play.

And when you read this in light of my earlier post you will see that I only made 188.5 pips OVER 10 TRADES in an entire month.

So, staying with this ONE TRADE would have well over doubled my entire monthly income.

Obviously, a good trader shouldn't get in the habit of saying "if only" because hindsight is 20/20 and at the time we act according to probabilities and experience.

However, one should always be striving to improve their game and this exercise puts a lot of things in perspective.

 

[trader_dante]

I'm living this at the moment, long in GBPUSD since 31/03, on the daily and 4hr i wouldn't consider exit. But, it has found some res on the hourly, and been stuck for a long while. Now I know I shouldn't be looking at the H1 charts when trading a daily setup but I am well up and its been my biggest ever trade to date which has revitalised my confidence in this business (self taught and made all the mistakes). My gut instinct tells me its fuelling for the next leg up but i'm tempted to exit now and log a good trade...it could be a great trade though...It should be a mechanical thing, but as you said earlier "be prepared to go from a 293 pip win to a 30 pip loss" I guess as it continues to print higher highs and lows on the daily and 4hr I'll tough it out and use the same rules that got me into the trade. Its so easy to cut a profit short.

I would move my stop to 1.4448 (the low of todays candle) as this closed above an s/r pivot on my chart. This locks in 148 pips of the 430 it has so far returned...

One thing I would say is that gaining confidence is an important part of trading successfully. You need to always believe in yourself 100%.

If banking your biggest ever win to date will help you to gain that confidence then, take your profit and paper trade the rest of it - but MAKE SURE YOU DO - to see what the outcome was.

The danger is that it reverses at some point and stops you out and you realise you've given 50% of your profits back and you feel fed up and disheartened...

It takes time to understand a strategy and gain confidence in it. That is why a lot of people flit from one to the other after 2 or 3 trades. It's a slow learning curve...

But as I said...maybe the best thing to do would be to take your profit and then watch what happens next. This is, by a lot of standards, a big winner and has handsomely paid for the risk taken in trading it.

Then your next trade, you may be less emotional on....

Just my 2 cents...of course don't blame me if it goes parabolic after you get out lol

-Tom

 

[webinvester]

What to do?

I would move my stop to 1.4448 (the low of todays candle) as this closed above an s/r pivot on my chart. This locks in 148 pips of the 430 it has so far returned...

One thing I would say is that gaining confidence is an important part of trading successfully. You need to always believe in yourself 100%.

If banking your biggest ever win to date will help you to gain that confidence then, take your profit and paper trade the rest of it - but MAKE SURE YOU DO - to see what the outcome was.

The danger is that it reverses at some point and stops you out and you realise you've given 50% of your profits back and you feel fed up and disheartened...

-Tom

I am sure this has been mentioned before many times.

As Tom says, if you can gain more in confidence and trust in your trading by taking the trade, why not take 50% as well as move the stop.

This would give you a good return and comfort feeling and then in addition, if it continues you're still in the trade, if it pulls back to your stop you still keep some more profit.

webinvester

 

[tradedays]

Cheers Tom, straight advice again.

Confidence and emotions in check, cant really see a strong reason to sell quite yet. 148 pips will be a very nice trade. so lets see what this baby has got under the bonnet!

Cheers Chris

I would move my stop to 1.4448 (the low of todays candle) as this closed above an s/r pivot on my chart. This locks in 148 pips of the 430 it has so far returned...

 

[MrGecko]

Or a mere 11.38% of the entire move which is still in play.

You know TD, I'm not so sure I'm with you on this.

Watching what happens to a market you have just left, sure - if you are trading regularly, it's pretty hard not to do. But to compare what you did take from what could have been taken, IMO, has a limited upside and runs big risks.

I mean - taking just 11.8% of a move is enough to dishearten anyone. If I think in that way, then I don't really accept that I should be getting less than 70%+ of the moves from the trades that I take (70% is arbitrary.. I chose it because that is a 1st at degree level). Taking 70% of the maximum available, IMO, is reaching for the stars. You might make one or two trades where you get in at the very bottom and out at the very top, but they are the exception.

I think anyone who adopts this philosophy are going to find two things happen to their trading: Firstly, they are going to beat themselves up about not making 70% on each and every trade, and that will certainly knock them out of "the zone"; secondly, as a consequence, they are going to swing for the fences at each and every trade... which is kind of hard when you don't know how far the fence actually is.

Let your winners run - absolutely - they have to pay for the losers + costs! But don't let them run away either, your PnL has no room for romance.

I prefer to think of my trades as little skirmishes in a war of attrition... random outcomes. That I took 11.8% doesnt matter to me at all... what does matter to me is that my edge is genuine, and I trade it like Iceman. With probabilities on my side, the PnL will take care of itself.

"That's him - Iceman. It's the way he flies, ice cold, no mistakes. He wears you down, you get bored, frustrated, do something stupid and he's got ya."

Goose, Top Gun

 

[2Tall]

Hi everyone,
first time posting here, so I'd first like to thank everyone for some invaluable information, especially trader_dante. After many days of researching your price action system, I spent some time last year demoing it, and was rather surprised with the immediate success I was having. Moved to live trading a few months ago, and while I wasn't quite as successful as demoing (there really is a big difference when using real money), but still have made good pips. Have only traded daily's as I have very little time at work to stay on top of 1H trades.

So trader_dante, thanks again for the time and effort you have put into this and your previous thread.

Anyway, just wondering if someone has had some good trades on GBPCAD. Looking at a nice daily pin on my chart at an S/R with fib confluence. The risk is just a little bit higher than what I have taken so far on daily's, but not overly averse to risking about 236 pips.
Looking back along the chart, there quite a few good looking pins that would have been very profitable, of course that is with hindsight.

 

[supremegizmo]

the canadian economy is highly correlated with US .. canada runs a huge surplus with US

US jobs sector losses will affect canada aswell. on top ofit besidefrom oil industry in canada .. automobile (GM, chrysler, ford ) if i am not wrong employ lots of people

negative non farms directly affect US correlated economies like canada and mexico so its canadian dollar and mexican peso negative. watch both of them crap (and i mean really quick compared to euro)

so if non farms are extremely bad .. equities crap, crude oil craps out on demand concerns and canadian dollar will follow them so u go long usd/cad ...

in my own words "if the technicals and fundamentals are setup for a trade close your eyes and freaking pull the trigger"
best of luck

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
mark my words as the US data comes out positive everytime.. loonie gonna drop a big
figure .. awaiting non farms .. ihave got a setup for symetrical triangle breakout
long cad/chf... theme - swissy sweakness due to continued SNB fx verba, intervention
loonie strentgh due to data/ equity and commo strenght


for now loonie has formed lower high on daily and if it breaks the swing low around 1.22 area i doubt its gonna respect the trendline .. ( criteria continued equity and commo strenghth)

lower high marked as down arrow .... swing low marked as cross:clap:

 

[KillPhil08]

Two Tall >This I'm still short at 18388.


Edit: Two tall. You don't have to risk 200pips if you go to the lower timeframes. Right, there's a pinbar - sorted - you know the direction. Now go onto a lower timeframe and trade a breakout or a good bounce from resistance. You can easily risk 10-20pips from a decent level inside the daily bar, you just need patience for the entry.

2nd edit: My opinion, I want this pair to stay below 18300 and to break 18200. Both are key imo.

3rd edit: Entry is everything on this pair too, I had a spread of around 12-15 while putting on my trades today...

 

[2Tall]

Two Tall >This I'm still short at 18388.


Edit: Two tall. You don't have to risk 200pips if you go to the lower timeframes. Right, there's a pinbar - sorted - you know the direction. Now go onto a lower timeframe and trade a breakout or a good bounce from resistance. You can easily risk 10-20pips from a decent level inside the daily bar, you just need patience for the entry.

2nd edit: My opinion, I want this pair to stay below 18300 and to break 18200. Both are key imo.

3rd edit: Entry is everything on this pair too, I had a spread of around 12-15 while putting on my trades today...

Thanks KillPhill, problem is that I am not guaranteed to be able to check the lower TFs at work (Damn meetings ) I'll take a look anyway, and maybe demo this one as I don't want to break my money management rules on maximum risk.

Edit: Yeah, spread is quite large for me too at 10 pips. Quite a bit to give away...

 

[KillPhil08]

yay fpr eurgbp and cable, anyone else in woop

 

[trader_dante]

If you open a DMA account and trade the futures you can trade things like GBP/JPY and GBP/CAD with a 2 pip spread...

 

[supremegizmo]

Pounds Looks Vulnerable At 1.48

CHART OF THE DAY

PREVIOUS NECKLINE OF H&S BROKEN TESTED YESTERDAY ALONG WITH A DAILY DOUBLE TOP IN PLACE IF 1.48IS NOT BROKEN TODAY ....:whistling