Best Thread Potential setups

[Paul71]

Hey Paul, I'm kind of tired of the whole argument to be honest. I've heard it regurgitated countless times by new_trader et al.

The best traders I have seen use tight stops and they know when to scalp and when to run a position. But these are the higher echelon of traders. For most of us (and this goes for even very successful traders that make a lot of money) tight stops and proficient entries mean they exit quicker.

Why is it when somone can get an entry with a 1 tick stop that they don't seem to be able to run a profit? Perhaps because with a 1 tick stop, 5 ticks profit is a R:R of 5:1 which is excellent.

And yet that still doesn't impress me. Because I am in this to catch the big moves - that is my personality and that is my style of trading.

I couldn't give a flying f*ck if someone uses a super tight, proficient entry into the Bund with a stop of 1 tick at a double bottom, then takes 5 ticks and three months later we are 14 full points higher. I don't respect that. That's just me.

But I always found that those that use larger stops are inclined to take the larger moves. Not only because they need too, to make it work but because they are used to the market ebbing and flowing so they can hold their position longer.

Think about it, a person that uses a stop of 1 tor 2 ticks likes to NAIL their entry. As a result, they usually don't have the mental faculties to see a market go up 100 ticks and then retrace 40 before going up another 100. They would rather job it. They would like to get the 100. Then sell for 40. Then buy for the next 100. But ultimately they end up with lots of small gains rather than the position trader that takes the whole move.

I don't know how much sense this makes but it is something that I have found time and time again. The proficient traders, for the most part, can't seem to run things. Of course, THEORETICALLY they have the best advantage. A tight stop with unlimited gains. But this is THEORETICAL. It rarely works out like this in real life.

The traders that aren't as proficient, (like me, I am sure many would argue) can run things for the bigger moves because each tick doesn't "matter" - only the bigger picture.

Agreed.

I think people get so embezzled in the stop arguement that they forget trading is about making money, i believe limiting losses is secondary to this.

 

[advfntrader]

I blew my free VDM account also (£200) . kept shorting FTSE yesterday and the rest was history...

 

[SuMe]

lol

 

[Joey25]

gbpusd

A very well-defined trend channel has developed in cable.

Should encounter good resistance at the untested lows, marked by the yellow lines.

 

[omni]

I was bearish gbpjpy yesterday, today i see opportunities presenting themselves in gbpchf. Oops sorry, it's breaking out as i write. Anyway, i was giong to say, sell gbpchf. Maybe others are already watching.

 

[grimweasel]

Omni!
Good to see you back and nailing the posts! I guess all that lurking and no posting must have been torture?!

Where did you get your info on the usdchf? Was the buying/selling volume from the ladder?

I'm back at work now with nil access to MT4 so only daily / 4hr trades for me now :-(
Mind you, stops overtrading and that way I should catch the big moves. Always knew I was better as a 'swinger' .

Tom, the stuff you were saying about having ball$ is ‘diamond’. I've read all the books on trading psychology and they all say one of the biggest trading errors is manifested thru peoples' inability to fully accept risk; they let fear get the better of them.

It's taken me a long time to learn this. If you trade pins (at significant SR etc) then you have made a decision to enter on the break of the pin h/l. You are proved wrong at the opposite end of that pin entry. Until then, let it ride and stop looking for reasons to get out of a trade. Why put all that work and patience into letting a good entry come your way only to pi$$ it away in the first 20-30 ticks of the move?

By doing this you are maximising your profits. Sure, some will go £90-120 into profit and come back and take out your stop. That's trading and there are NO certainties in this game. Every moment is unique; you are just stacking the odds in your favour of a pattern repeating its self. If your egde gives you a signal to trade you must take every trade, to stack the casino odds in your favour. There are NO guarantees it will work every time as its like saying this trade is the same as any other trade. It would be like trying to match the clouds in the sky to those of yesterday!!

Many systems are profitable, such as pins, 3 Ducks, the EASY trading system etc. What makes them unprofitable is the human mind and our inability to TRULY accept risk. It's the in-trade management that makes you a successful trader and it's taken me a few lost grand to realise that below 4hr TF is not profitable for my 'mind-style'.

If you find that the lower TFs produce angst and dent your equity curve, do yourself a BIG favour and only trade daily’s. Stop trying to squeeze every tick out of every small market move. Only check the position at the end of the day. No sneaking into the charts to check the 1hr Tfs etc - stick with the TF you entered on -this, in my view is so important. It's hard - but as I've learnt, sometimes it’s better to know less about the market to make money.

Find a system, only trade that system and only enter / exit using its rules and don't read about any other indicators, entry methods etc until you are fully profitable in that system. Sounds easy but how many of us actually, rigidly stick to our entry/exit rules?? Not many I guess.

Discretionary trading is for people who are trying to shift the blame for their losses from themselves, to the market - it's a way of blocking the pain. Only the ultra-best traders should be discretionary, every one else should have a system - otherwise how will you evaluate your performance to see what’s working and what isn’t???

Fully accepting the risk of your system and its rules will give you a fighting chance of staying alive - and ensure that if you foul it up YOU take the responsibility; not the market.

Moving stops to BE is a classic sign of a trader who is engaged in a risky business thinking that they are embracing risk when in fact they are trading with emotions - mainly FEAR!

I’ve still a lot to learn too – but I firmly believe that until you can crack the higher TFs you will not have the emotional maturity to deal with the lower TFs – that’s why the SBs offer the TFs as they know it like printing money. This is not aimed at the seasoned guys (Omin, TD, Joey, Paul etc) more advise for those who are struggling – happy trading!!

 

[Joey25]

I'm trying to get a weekly breakout on AUDUSD.

It looks like it's got through the supply line, but the top of the (horizontal) channel is proving tough to beat.

Targetting the next pivot level.

 

[trader_dante]

This time when you move your stop you are up 198 pips.

Your stop will take you out at 146 pips up.

This is the way to do it.

As you will see, EUR/GBP pulled back a little overnight and then nailed it up again today.

Note how the stop strategy I outlined in my previous posts KEEPS you in this with ease and you are now up 322 pips.

All stop movements are shown on the image below including todays stop movements.

Pay particular attention to how the 3rd stop movement allows the market some pullback overnight.

Also note how the 4th stop placement allows the market to break the level and then retest from above.

It doesn't get any easier than this.

Next stop movement will come at the end of this hour if we close above the level. If it doesn't we stay where we are at point 4.

 

[trader_dante]

Places to hit the Bunds from the short side:

124.20
124.63-72
125.00

(If you play the level straight without waiting for hourly PA you shouldn't need a stop wider than 10-15 ticks and sometimes as little as 8 ticks. However, this is not for everyone)

If we go lower, look to get in under 123.60.

My newsletter: Futex - Futex Proprietary Investment and Trading House. Trading, Trader, Futures, online trading, currency trading, stock market trading, bond trading, Futures trading, Trading careers, trading courses, Commodity trading, Forex, day trader, equity tr

(a shameless plug...)

 

[trader_dante]

Forget picking a bottom in equities...anyone with true balls of steel might be trying to pick the bottom of the Natural Gas market.

 

[patw]

As you will see, EUR/GBP pulled back a little overnight and then nailed it up again today.

Note how the stop strategy I outlined in my previous posts KEEPS you in this with ease and you are now up 322 pips.

All stop movements are shown on the image below including todays stop movements.

Pay particular attention to how the 3rd stop movement allows the market some pullback overnight.

Also note how the 4th stop placement allows the market to break the level and then retest from above.

It doesn't get any easier than this.

Next stop movement will come at the end of this hour if we close above the level. If it doesn't we stay where we are at point 4.

dante

do you plot moving averages on your charts or just trade price action for the h1 t/f??

 

[trader_dante]

dante

do you plot moving averages on your charts or just trade price action for the h1 t/f??

Sometimes, when I am in a playful mood and I don't mind losing some money, I like to put moving averages on my chart.

All other times, I use just price on the hourly and daily TF.

 

[patw]

Sometimes, when I am in a playful mood and I don't mind losing some money, I like to put moving averages on my chart.

All other times, I use just price on the hourly and daily TF.

dante,are you a pro trader?

I am looking at a 40dma and 20dma system that states to buy/sell when price closes over/under the 40ma and then close the trade when price closes under the 20ma 200ma shows the main trend up/down (vince stanizones course) am i wasting mytime with this system dante??

 

[trader_dante]

dante,are you a pro trader?

It depends what you define as "pro".

When I personally think of the word "pro" I think of someone that has reached the top of their game. In that case, I am not a pro.

But if you mean "pro" as in short for professional and you classify professional as someone that trades for a living and derives an income which they live off of, from trading, then yes, I am.

I am looking at a 40dma and 20dma system that states to buy/sell when price closes over/under the 40ma and then close the trade when price closes under the 20ma 200ma shows the main trend up/down (vince stanizones course) am i wasting mytime with this system dante??

I would have to say, emphatically, yes.

But don't take my word for it.

Demo it and find out.

 

[patw]

It depends what you define as "pro".

When I personally think of the word "pro" I think of someone that has reached the top of their game. In that case, I am not a pro.

But if you mean "pro" as in short for professional and you classify professional as someone that trades for a living and derives an income which they live off of, from trading, then yes, I am.



I would have to say, emphatically, yes.

But don't take my word for it.

Demo it and find out.

Thanks for your comments dante

 

[trader_dante]

patw, mate, there are many systems and it is not for me to say what works and what doesn't. We are all trying to carve out a niche in this market - some people trade with the trend. Some againt. Some scalp. Some swing. Some position. Some use moving average crossovers. Some use CCI. Others use candlestick patterns. Some trade breakouts. Some fade breakouts. Some use charts. Others use the order book. Some spread. Some trade outright. And so on and so forth. But what you must remember is that price is pure. Price is the sum result of every participant in that market at that time. Everything else - moving averages, indicators, is all just a summary of what has happened in the past.

But something you must realise is that whatever system you use, there is a game being played here by the professionals. And the aim of that game is to make money. And the professionals play the game well by using the novices to provide them with liquidity. Clever traders are buying to get other buyers when really they want to be selling and will sell as soon as people buy. There are bluffs and double bluffs at every turn. There are computers in the game too, to help people cover their tracks or try to take out other players. But as I said, there is a big game.

Price is your only clue on a day by day basis and even that is fraught with misinformation.

Trade wise at all times.

 

[glyder]

dante,are you a pro trader?

I am looking at a 40dma and 20dma system that states to buy/sell when price closes over/under the 40ma and then close the trade when price closes under the 20ma 200ma shows the main trend up/down (vince stanizones course) am i wasting mytime with this system dante??

patw, if I may reply, from my recent experience. I tried similar systems to that which you describe, after I had read what felt like every trading book under the sun and a few TA books too. These systems can work to some extent, but they probably aren't going to get you to any version of comfortably consistent trading. Comfortably perhaps being the key word there.

If you want, you can look at a thread I started about my 'simple trading system' (I've now discarded it so don;t look to hard) Sometimes it worked, and I had profitable periods with it, it felt good to at least have a measure of organisation to my trading, which is an important step, but really cos the moving averages lag the market they won't give the best entry and certainly not best exits. They act as a kind of crutch, which at first seems to help but eventually slows you down. I found that the entries were not consistent. MA crossovers (bollingers, stochastics and whatever else) are also independent of important support and resistance lines so are not reliable in areas of congestion and change of trend..
Worst of all, I found it so boring sitting watching for a couple of lines to cross over. If you look at that thread everyone who responded to me said I'd progress to charts without indicators. They were right,at first it was daunting,but it has happened pretty quickly.
I'm still very much on a learning curve myself, (much of what I have to learn now is related to discipline and patience, psychology in other words.), but I see charts with totally different eyes to six months, or even three months ago, and way way different to when I first ever looked at them long ago ( I have worked with some excellent technical analysts, and one thing is for sure - good TA ability is different to good trading ability)
I think you are probably at a stage that has to be experienced by most people wanting to trade,indicators may have their place at tmes, but what you learn now will probably be assimilated with much more if you perseve.

Hope you didn't mind me adding my 2pennothsworth, all the best to you.

 

[grimweasel]

Well said Rik - I'd have repped but wasn't allowed!

I think some indicator based systems can help to keep people in the market and earning cash as opposed to being shaken out at every down bar etc. I'd only use pure charts (no indicators etc) once I'd demo'd an account for at least 4 profitable months.

Like TD said, everyone is out to get you - there are breaks, false breaks, false selling, hidden orders etc the list is endless. You need to be consistent in your trading criterion to maintain that winning edge - that's all! Don't beat yourself up if one trade doesn't work - every trade is completely different to the last one. The market can't have the same participants making the same decisions at the same time every day. As Mark Douglas said; "you don't need to know what is going to happen next to make money' -at first I couldn't get my head around this but now I think I know what he means -

The market is so unique at every time period, that it would be impossible to try and KNOW what will happen next. When your strategy (pins etc) doesn't work (on a single trade etc) and you get emotionally hurt, that pain will cause you emotional distress that may cause you to doubt your egde and try and blame the market. The market doesn't owe/know anything - it's data representing price action with no live being, other than the millions of humans making desicions on buying or selling at that time in the hope they'll be able to buy/sell at a more favourable price in the future!

I'll stop waffling now...

 

[patw]

patw, mate, there are many systems and it is not for me to say what works and what doesn't. We are all trying to carve out a niche in this market - some people trade with the trend. Some againt. Some scalp. Some swing. Some position. Some use moving average crossovers. Some use CCI. Others use candlestick patterns. Some trade breakouts. Some fade breakouts. Some use charts. Others use the order book. Some spread. Some trade outright. And so on and so forth. But what you must remember is that price is pure. Price is the sum result of every participant in that market at that time. Everything else - moving averages, indicators, is all just a summary of what has happened in the past.

But something you must realise is that whatever system you use, there is a game being played here by the professionals. And the aim of that game is to make money. And the professionals play the game well by using the novices to provide them with liquidity. Clever trades are buying to get other buyers when really they want to be selling and will sell as soon as people buy. There are bluffs and double bluffs at every turn. There are computers in the game too, to help people cover their tracks or try to take out other players. But as I said, there is a big game.

Price is your only clue on a day by day basis and even that is fraught with misinformation.

Trade wise at all times.

so you trade with charts with no indicators ma,s rsi,boll/bands macd what so ever?? is this more like daytrading(1h t/f)? and if you have a fulltime job can this type of trading be used on the daily t/f instead or does 1Hr t/f pin bars lower your risk??

Guys thanks for the replys

 

[patw]

patw, if I may reply, from my recent experience. I tried similar systems to that which you describe, after I had read what felt like every trading book under the sun and a few TA books too. These systems can work to some extent, but they probably aren't going to get you to any version of comfortably consistent trading. Comfortably perhaps being the key word there.

If you want, you can look at a thread I started about my 'simple trading system' (I've now discarded it so don;t look to hard) Sometimes it worked, and I had profitable periods with it, it felt good to at least have a measure of organisation to my trading, which is an important step, but really cos the moving averages lag the market they won't give the best entry and certainly not best exits. They act as a kind of crutch, which at first seems to help but eventually slows you down. I found that the entries were not consistent. MA crossovers (bollingers, stochastics and whatever else) are also independent of important support and resistance lines so are not reliable in areas of congestion and change of trend..
Worst of all, I found it so boring sitting watching for a couple of lines to cross over. If you look at that thread everyone who responded to me said I'd progress to charts without indicators. They were right,at first it was daunting,but it has happened pretty quickly.
I'm still very much on a learning curve myself, (much of what I have to learn now is related to discipline and patience, psychology in other words.), but I see charts with totally different eyes to six months, or even three months ago, and way way different to when I first ever looked at them long ago ( I have worked with some excellent technical analysts, and one thing is for sure - good TA ability is different to good trading ability)
I think you are probably at a stage that has to be experienced by most people wanting to trade,indicators may have their place at tmes, but what you learn now will probably be assimilated with much more if you perseve.

Hope you didn't mind me adding my 2pennothsworth, all the best to you.

thanks for the comment rikrok

how can i learn to trade without indicators is there a tread by any of the experenced traders relating to this method? ie dante or the like??

thanks