Best Thread Potential setups

[foredog]

Ok, cool, just thought you were saying not to use stops. Trying to make a point before you blew you're money.

 

[KillPhil08]

exit when it breaks trend .

 

[trader_dante]

exit when it breaks trend .

On a 5m TF?

Does it mean anything that it dips below that trend line?

I wouldn't close until it takes out a major pivot on the hourly.

 

[KillPhil08]

I guess, we'll see if it works. I find with eurgbp its one direction massive congestion then the next day another move.

Completely missed your post earlier. Wish i had seen it.

 

[Technically Fundamental]

I think I'll snap up euros when it drops?

Do you think that they'll let the euro =1gbp? or will the market decide?

 

[Joey25]

Aaron, this shoot-from-the-hip style might work in Wall Street, but us mere mortals have to put some hard graft in.

Have you gone through the various trading threads such as Dante's one or the Phil Newton one?

Friendly advice - please don't take offence

 

[omni]

Joey,
Aaron is on demo, so no panic.
He should keep on demo til he has done 3months in profit.

 

[omni]

Ps. Trader_Dante.... thanks for filling everyone in on your stop strategy. I will wonder back into the mist now.

 

[Technically Fundamental]

I menat I'd short the euro.

S'not from the hip. I just doubt that the euro will ever be "allowed" to reach 1gbp as long as Gordon has a drop of blood in his body so theres a limit. The "UK" financial services have announced the worst of their losses and I speculate that the pound will not continue depreciating as sharply as it has done and will soon start to curve off a lá exponensheeal. Looking at the weekly chart patterns as Dante said it looks as though the market doesnt like the euro being that strong and it keeps correcting itself. Finally I think think once the media report that the china has not met expected growth, "buy america" actually kicks and steals a bit of cash from teh rest of the world (on paper of course), the next euro unemployment figures are revealed, the motor companies throw out their quarterly's and finally the UK raise the interest rate from f -all the euro will drop.

Thats my amatuer macroeconomic trading strategy for this paticular trade lol.


Lets see if my crystal ball works.

 

[Technically Fundamental]

I plan on doing so Omni. I kept a month in profit so far.

I dont account my first account because it was a $1m which was ********. Too much volume. Was still in profit though.

Im going home.

Also I've never seen Wall Street lol.

 

[neil]

Pivots

I have tried a lot of different exits and the most profitable is trailing your stop above or below the candle that closes above or below the next pivot in the direction you took the trade.

This strategy serves two very good purposes:

1. It stops you getting out a target and then seeing the market continue on in the direction you anticipated

2. It allows you to stay in whilst the market is behaving correctly. E.g. breaking a level, coming back and retesting it before moving higher.

Don't pre-empt your exit either. Always exit when your stop is hit.

Stops on pins and inside bars are incredibly simple. They go the other side of the candle!

TD

How do you work out your pivots ?

 

[grimweasel]

Right - I'm short USDYEN at 9880 - wkly pin (ish), plus a small h4 pin. 1hr chart looks weak. MACD divergance on 1hr TF with PA. Risky, against trend but the RR is good with a tight stop. Newbs; (of which I still consider myself one) don't follow me in on this one - make up your own mind with your own analysis. Looks like a 1-2-3 on the H4 chart short.

 

[technicTrader]

Hi all,

I'm new to this forum, but I've been trading for a while. I saw the recent post by GrimWeasel. Watch this level and this pair. Looks to be forming a head and shoulders on the 4hr and 8hr time scale. Right now we are working on completing the right shoulder. I'm looking for a test of short term resistance at 99.2 or there about before I get short on this one.

Keep and eye on it, but be careful on this pattern. Its not the greatest head and shoulders I've seen, especially since the neckline support was broken on the last push down, and so too has the resistance created by the left shoulder. These don't negate the h & s pattern, but they should monitored and noted.

C.

 

[portomar]

I menat I'd short the euro.

S'not from the hip. I just doubt that the euro will ever be "allowed" to reach 1gbp as long as Gordon has a drop of blood in his body so theres a limit. The "UK" financial services have announced the worst of their losses and I speculate that the pound will not continue depreciating as sharply as it has done and will soon start to curve off a lá exponensheeal. Looking at the weekly chart patterns as Dante said it looks as though the market doesnt like the euro being that strong and it keeps correcting itself. Finally I think think once the media report that the china has not met expected growth, "buy america" actually kicks and steals a bit of cash from teh rest of the world (on paper of course), the next euro unemployment figures are revealed, the motor companies throw out their quarterly's and finally the UK raise the interest rate from f -all the euro will drop.

Thats my amatuer macroeconomic trading strategy for this paticular trade lol.


Lets see if my crystal ball works.

hey aaron, im more of a lurker on this forum nowadays as im travelling the world and have about 71 euro in my SB account! but ive followed TDs teachings for quite a while. at the risk of spouting crap, the potential setups forum is more about tech PA setups than macroeconomic market calls. one thing TD has said before is that PA setups can often seem to 'predict' announcements of big news. what im getting at is that PA is more important than gordon brown (who doesnt have any say over the money supply anyway! ) at least in this thread

my own 2c is that there is no FIXED level at which a pair will not meet. find me someone who would have predicted the euro reaching parity with the dollar and keep going back in 2001/2002?? also the kind of developments you talk about above are nowhere near happening in the near fture, BOE aren't going to start raising rates ANY time soon consideing they're actually gone to the stage of printing and inflating the currency. hardly a potential setup so.

sorry to take up more valuable setups space the rest of you guys!

 

[omni]

if you are watching usdcad, wait for 12850. might see a good entry around here for another go at 13000

 

[trader_dante]

Usd/nok

Not a pair I trade but I have been watching it ever since Omni mentioned it months back...check this thing out.

Whether you trade exotics or not, it's always a good idea to see how patterns like this play out so I would check USD/NOK from time to time...you will find that by watching you absorb a lot subconsciously.

How many attempts does it make to take out the top resistance?
How many fakes does it make before it really goes through?
Does it come back and retest and how long before it does so?
Does it hit its "target" of a measured move of the pattern?

And so on and so forth.

 

[Technically Fundamental]

@ portomar

In your attemps to make me look foolish you completely side-steps the reason for my posting. We both know I was discussing something and not posting a set up so go and flex your knowledge on someone else. Anyway lets see what happens in the next few months. Oh and remember banks (who are not passing on the rate cut) create more money than the mint and so they have more impact on inflation if I'm not mistaken. The pound will recover along with the UK banking subsidiaries. Lets just hope they get enough perks off GB to leave some of the profitable activity in the UK books despite PLC UberTax. Anyway I'm back to learning.

Sorry for jamming up the thread.


"find me someone who would have predicted the euro reaching parity with the dollar and keep going back in 2001/2002" Whoever did 9/11

 

[ian_c]

HI. I'm fairly new here. Great thread, learnt a fair amount already, thanks for posting.

Is that a flag forming on GBP 1H? I'd be tempted to go short if it breaks 3770.

 

[glyder]

@ portomar

In your attemps to make me look foolish ..................

Aaronmalins, I don' think portomar was trying to make you look foolish. He has a point. Trading set ups are mostly about PA/ TA not fundamentals & as TD writes under every post... there is no floor or ceiling to price.
You can totally understand all the fundamentals and still very often be caught out by the market. It happens to economists all the time. And its a rare economist who can also trade the markets.

 

[Technically Fundamental]

I understand mate but that message seems snotty to me. I couldnt shake the feeling he was being a tw@ is all.

I understand it's all in the market but I also think that certain people/groups can influence the market for their benefit by buying/selling and since I'm not trading live I come here to learn to read the charts better and gain a deeper understanding of what it all means. If I do eventually get a trading job then my curiosity will die and I'll just work but I enjoy seeing how it alls fits together. It's a hobby really.

Listen I'm gonna stop clogging up the thread now before everyone wants to kill me