Best Thread Potential setups

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That makes it interesting.. becasue a late sell off in equities - especially after a rally is never a good sign. What happens next is the Asian markets get spooked overnight, resulting in a further lower open on the FTSE.

So calling a short on Bund might be early days yet.

Anyway.. I'm not deleting my Bund short order @ 124.90
 
trader_dante said:
Mate, did you take either of my two calls this morning? If you did...I've got a stop on the S&P500 at 751.2 now instead.
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Hi,
I didn't take those ones because I was on my lunch break in work when I read your suggestions and I don't like to trade at all in my work time. I can only place my trades in the morning or evening (thats why the daily setups are good for me, or if it just so happens that an opportunity arises on the hourly pins during these times). However this evening I traded the DOW and anticipated a bounce off the 7400 level about 20:30 GMT. Had a short mental stop just above this level but as you know it plummeted to below 7300 in the space of half hour. I got out before 21:00 because I wasn't sure whether it would automatically roll me over or something, and I could have lost it all (mainly due to my unfamiliarity with the platform!) I traded this with the Shorts and Longs account so made profit of +116. Considering I only put £50 into the account i'm happy with this return. I think it probably would be best to transfer this to the account I am using with lower prices per point and attempt to grow it from there now - even though its tempting to try for another big trade before the deal from S&L runs out. I feel detatched from this last trade anyway so won't be doing anything on a high anytime soon. What do you think?
Noodles
 
trader_dante said:
Grim, 125.97 - 126.05 is a HUGE resistance on the Bund.

I have a rather large short position at the moment and sold some more today.

Well done for holding. Shorting below the pin (I sold at 125.37) wasn't the best entry (see Wasps and FW's post)...a better entry would have been a limit at the levels of 125.55 or 125.90s - ahead of the big resistance.

The reason I didn't do this was I really feel we are near a top and just didn't know if it was going to get up there.

Still, we are both in for now and this could develop into a killer trade.

My target is 121.50 initially.
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Cheers Tom,
I got in at .65 with IG after I noticed the daily pin. Stop at 126.06, so it came to within inches of busting me out!!

Fouled up the gbpyen trade tho. Got in, made some pips and then lost them by trying to be smart and picking a bottom too early - result of pips handed back to Mr Market for being a Richard Head.

Just gbp dumping, as usdyen was not selling off so I thought it would be a short correction. Wrong! I have a rule that once I'm out of a trade I never re-enter it becasue I always hand the pips back - just like I did today. Why are we so wretched to ourselves? Bloody monkey addicted to random rewards as Mark Douglas said. I'm re-reading it for a second time as I guess it didn't quite sink in first time round. Wish me luck!
Grim
 
Two ways:

I notice that on the upper trendlines, it usually breaks the resistance by a couple of hundred points. Spikes, then reverses. I'm not sure this is going to be the same as the support.

It could just break out; cable has a tendency to fall very fast - who knows maybe 19th Jan all over again.
 

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KillPhil08 said:
Two ways:

I notice that on the upper trendlines, it usually breaks the resistance by a couple of hundred points. Spikes, then reverses. I'm not sure this is going to be the same as the support.

It could just break out; cable has a tendency to fall very fast - who knows maybe 19th Jan all over again.
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Hi Killphill, I think that might be a bearish outside bar on the cable, I'm new to these, but if it is, the gist is a downwards break, probably after some retracement.
Yesterdays; was a bearish inside baron the cable and that one worked pretty well.. ...made me think I ought to swot up on these inside/outside formations.

GBPCHF looks good for a break one way or another soon too.
 

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I have no idea what a 1 min topping formation is but if I get good confirmation the uptrend has finished I will short crude :) Probably why I have never gotten away with tight stops on crude either.
I don't really mind if I miss the exact top just hoping to hitch a ride some of the way down.
Will need the indices to tank again to help us down.
Nicola


si1503 said:
Anyone else here looking to short the current oil rally?

I make this wave 3, I am looking for wave 5 to reach either the 45 mark (61.8 of the month swing high-low and S/R from ealier on in the year) or 46 which will take it to a descending daily trend line and daily EMA50. It is most likely I will just start shorting from above 45 upon 1-min topping formations. Tight stop. Target mid 30's.

Please keep in mind I am very bearish on oil, this trade is not for everyone.
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elitejets said:
I have no idea what a 1 min topping formation is but if I get good confirmation the uptrend has finished I will short crude :) Probably why I have never gotten away with tight stops on crude either.
I don't really mind if I miss the exact top just hoping to hitch a ride some of the way down.
Will need the indices to tank again to help us down.
Nicola
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Yeah. Totally dependant on bearish sentiment holding and equities on the slide, if not we can short the bund instead :cheesy:
 
elitejets said:
I have no idea what a 1 min topping formation is but if I get good confirmation the uptrend has finished I will short crude :) Probably why I have never gotten away with tight stops on crude either.
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No reason to short crude. On the contrary, classic formation, classic breakout and classic retest. And to make things even more beautiful, the W on the 30-min later got repeated on the 5-min after the breakout of 38... I left out the 1-min, only for die-hards :)

No reason not to set a tight stop. Multiple entries possible, just take your pick.

See charts. The line of least resistance is clearly upwards, with 48 potential resistance.
 

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Crude has been more bullish than expected, it has not tried to sell off at all yet, which tells me it is going higher in the short run. I was looking for some sort of sell off overnight/this morning, and then to test the 45's and descending trend, then even another sell and a re-test of the high, but it could now rally back into the range of the past month. I will still look to go short at some point but will wait a bit longer. A lot depends on what way equities go, when things seem like they can't get any worse often they don't, and you get some relief, a couple of higher lows in some of the equity markets, so perhaps we are at that moment.
 
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