Best Thread Potential setups

[rawrschach]

S&P just broke a weekly level from the beginning of the bul market. Looking for a bounce.

http://img.skitch.com/20081009-bwg6b9aw8iwbdef7nehm5y8842.jpg

 

[trader_dante]

S&P just broke a weekly level from the beginning of the bul market. Looking for a bounce.

http://img.skitch.com/20081009-bwg6b9aw8iwbdef7nehm5y8842.jpg

If it has BROKEN it, why are you looking for a bounce?

Good spot though - I was looking at that same level but on the FTSE and talking about it with one of our FTSE traders. My advice to her (a scalper thats wants to position) is to scalp on the short side and try and run any long positions as bounces could be violent.

But then I am sure there are many people that would turn that theory on its head and advise to scalp from the long side and run shorts...all doom and gloom scenario.

But I'm a contrarian. Always have been.

Probably always will be.

 

[KillPhil08]

ascending wedge on EURUSD 240m

Bouncing off lower trend line currently.

Edit: There she blows...

 

[rawrschach]

If it has BROKEN it, why are you looking for a bounce?

I actually took it short, I expected it to turn around quickly at the time like the FTSE break of 4400 earlier today.

Good point though, I've developed a habit of going against precedent the last few days.

 

[trader_dante]

In my opinion, positioning yourself for a longer term move in the equities is hard at the moment which is why I have hardly been trading them - or any other market for that matter.

Going long is hard as when the market trend continues it cuts through levels like they don't exist...But then going short is equally hard when the market is prone to sharp bounces. I think that right now this is a scalpers market.

 

[rollsafe]

DOW Daily Pin Forming, wait for the close tonight.

Trigger to go Short is 11120
Stop is 11391

If you get Stopped out its 271 points
If thats 1 or 2% of your account size then you can go short if you like the setup.
What the worse that can happen? You lose 1 or 2% of your account !!

If it keeps going down near or past 10468 then...hold on to your shorts...

Anyone still short this ??
Next levelis 5000:-0

 

[pelzar]

Hourly pinbar on gold?

 

[dirtyrottenscoundrel]

Long GBPUSD???

Hi all,

Please allow me to introduce myself, Im a man of wealth and taste, Ive been around for a long, long year - lurking & laying my account to waste :whistling

[unfortunately, only my lame addition to the above has been true...until]

I managed to finally complete the saga that is 'Making Money Trading', thanks so much to all who contributed, particularly T_D, the contents have been a massive aid to my trading. As you may notice, this is my first post (popped my cherry) and I'm keen to know your collective thoughts on the daily pin forming on GBPUSD [chart 1].

The pin has bounced off a long term S/R pivot dating back to arguably May 1987 with many retests and reactions to this zone IM(largely uneducated)O [see chart 2], it also has confluence finding support at the 61.8 Fib level dating back from the December 2001 low to the November 2007 high [see chart 3].

I notice the close is currently a wee bit below yesterdays low, which is admittedly unhelpful, but perhaps not fatal.

Am I on the right track here guys and gals? Anyone else considering this one?

Thanks for any help and advice.

Mark

 

[bnaimy]

I wanted to start this thread as a place to examine the high probability reversal or continuation points in different markets so that traders can look for confirmation in the price action.

I firmly believe that by being patient and waiting for the market to come to you and then only entering the market at these pivots a trader will put the odds significantly in their favour.

Here is one that I have been watching closely for several days now.

Hi Trader dante, i tottaly agree with you that waiting for the marked coming to you, thats the core idea of my trading. And when you are patience and waiting for the marked to come to you the rewareds are usualy alot higher.

THanks for for sharing your way of thinking, i think alot of new traders need to think this way.

With kind regards
Bashir Naimy

 

[grimweasel]

Hi all,

Please allow me to introduce myself, Im a man of wealth and taste, Ive been around for a long, long year - lurking & laying my account to waste :whistling

[unfortunately, only my lame addition to the above has been true...until]

I managed to finally complete the saga that is 'Making Money Trading', thanks so much to all who contributed, particularly T_D, the contents have been a massive aid to my trading. As you may notice, this is my first post (popped my cherry) and I'm keen to know your collective thoughts on the daily pin forming on GBPUSD [chart 1].

The pin has bounced off a long term S/R pivot dating back to arguably May 1987 with many retests and reactions to this zone IM(largely uneducated)O [see chart 2], it also has confluence finding support at the 61.8 Fib level dating back from the December 2001 low to the November 2007 high [see chart 3].

I notice the close is currently a wee bit below yesterdays low, which is admittedly unhelpful, but perhaps not fatal.

Am I on the right track here guys and gals? Anyone else considering this one?

Thanks for any help and advice.

Mark

Reckon she'll test 1.40 to the $. Who'd want to own the £ right now? 40% or so of GDP derived from Service Sector (Financials etc). In the words of George Bush:
"This sucka's gonna go down!"
Grim

 

[dirtyrottenscoundrel]

Thoughts on analysis

Reckon she'll test 1.40 to the $. Who'd want to own the £ right now? 40% or so of GDP derived from Service Sector (Financials etc). In the words of George Bush:
"This sucka's gonna go down!"
Grim

Thanks for your response and insight grimweasel. Fundamentals wise, I would tend to agree but it's such a pretty pin...

Can anyone comment upon my analysis of the set up. Given I am by all accounts a little wet behind the ears, it would be reassuring to know whether I am at least understanding the system (price action and supporting factors) and reading the charts correctly, as opposed to backwards or something... http://www.trade2win.com/boards/531812-post2058.html

Many thanks again to all.

Mark

 

[options]

Thanks for your response and insight grimweasel. Fundamentals wise, I would tend to agree but it's such a pretty pin...

Can anyone comment upon my analysis of the set up. Given I am by all accounts a little wet behind the ears, it would be reassuring to know whether I am at least understanding the system (price action and supporting factors) and reading the charts correctly, as opposed to backwards or something... http://www.trade2win.com/boards/531812-post2058.html

Many thanks again to all.

Mark

I would offer that you are getting a handle on it, and the assessment of your chart is solid and the support points valid. However, going by your chart from the link. It isn't a pin bar!
It can't be a pin bar until the next bar has formed or nearly formed. Patience is needed. You can't put all that work in and then anticipate and jump the gun.

At the moment all you have is a testing probe to find out what is down there. Are there more buyers than sellers, or is it the other way around, More sellers than buyers. The forming of the next bar will give you another piece of the jigsaw.

 

[dirtyrottenscoundrel]

Long on GBPUSD daily pin

I would offer that you are getting a handle on it, and the assessment of your chart is solid and the support points valid. However, going by your chart from the link. It isn't a pin bar!
It can't be a pin bar until the next bar has formed or nearly formed. Patience is needed. You can't put all that work in and then anticipate and jump the gun.

At the moment all you have is a testing probe to find out what is down there. Are there more buyers than sellers, or is it the other way around, More sellers than buyers. The forming of the next bar will give you another piece of the jigsaw.

Thanks for your kind words Options. It's good to know that I've managed to absorb something from 255 pages of reading - and what a cracking read it was!

I appreciate your point re: not jumping the gun. My take on it would be to go long on the breach of the high of the daily pin of 10/10/08 @1.7178 with a stop a tad over 400 points below (at the end of the nose of the pin) @1.6775.

Actually, that sounds scary, but clearly the price did not want to be there...

It's a fire sale - anyone care to pick a bottom?

 

[options]

Thanks for your kind words Options. It's good to know that I've managed to absorb something from 255 pages of reading - and what a cracking read it was!

I appreciate your point re: not jumping the gun. My take on it would be to go long on the breach of the high of the daily pin of 10/10/08 @1.7178 with a stop a tad over 400 points below (at the end of the nose of the pin) @1.6775.

Actually, that sounds scary, but clearly the price did not want to be there...

It's a fire sale - anyone care to pick a bottom?

with a stop a tad over 400 points below

Now that actually scares the hell out of me!

 

[Ljr]

However, going by your chart from the link. It isn't a pin bar!
It can't be a pin bar until the next bar has formed or nearly formed. Patience is needed. You can't put all that work in and then anticipate and jump the gun.

Options I'm afraid I have to diasgree with you here. According to how Trander_Dante has show his way of trading Pin Bars that is a really good looking Pin Bar and one could place orders now for the break of the high. Nowhere has TD said that the bar after the Pin Bar has to be formed or start to form. If the trader is happy with how the pin bar looks and has enough other confluence then the trade can be taken ( on the break ).

I do agree that a 400 pip stop is a lot and seeing other Daily Pins fail recently I would also be cautious and possibly look to the lower TFs for a low risk entry.

Would be interested to hear what you look for in the next bar that would make you happy to take this trade. I have heard others say they wait for the 3rd bar to form but this isn't the way TD has described his way of trading.

 

[palacekid]

Dear Traders,

I am looking at the SPY and VIX charts during the weekend.
At the level near 800 is where we will hit a double bottom. This signals a reversal back to the top.
The first previous bottom is at late 2002. It has been 6 years.

Please also note that VIX is at all time high (for the last 20 years). This signals all traders to start buying US stocks.

Good Luck in your trading!!

Regards,
PalaceKid

 

[trader_dante]

Just to clarify: as soon as the pin has formed and the next bar begins to print, I place my orders. So, in a way you do need to see the second bar begin to form before you can place your order BUT in no way does what the second bar look like affect my entry other than getting me in or invalidating the setup in which case I pull the order out. I'm personally not trading this Cable daily pin. I think a stop of 400 pips is a lot for this setup. If you "shop around you can probably get a better bargain" By that, I mean, if you look at the 1hr or 4hr you might get a tighter entry or even just let it go and try and buy it a little later if something good develops on the daily TF. There is no need to rush into things just because a setup presents itself. Capital is king in these times at the moment

 

[MrGecko]

One thing I would be a little cautious over is the size of the pin in relation to the candles around it... it's off a pretty good level , but look at the size of the bars leading up to it... I would be cautions about taking the contrarian view in a market that has so viciously driven south

Caveat emptor IMO... these are far from normal market conditions.

Agree with LJR that you could move down timeframes to give yourself more R:R, though I dont have a problem with the 400 pip stop in and of itself.

 

[dirtyrottenscoundrel]

I think I'll keep an eye on the lower TFs then with this one. The rate of Cable's decline is staggering and given, in this game, my metaphorical voice has not yet dropped, I think a conservative approach might be l'ordre du jour.

'Capital is king in these times' - never a truer word said!

Thank you all for the analysis. 7 related posts in a day, I love this site!

Mark

 

[options]

Options I'm afraid I have to diasgree with you here. According to how Trander_Dante has show his way of trading Pin Bars that is a really good looking Pin Bar and one could place orders now for the break of the high. Nowhere has TD said that the bar after the Pin Bar has to be formed or start to form. If the trader is happy with how the pin bar looks and has enough other confluence then the trade can be taken ( on the break ).

I do agree that a 400 pip stop is a lot and seeing other Daily Pins fail recently I would also be cautious and possibly look to the lower TFs for a low risk entry.

Would be interested to hear what you look for in the next bar that would make you happy to take this trade. I have heard others say they wait for the 3rd bar to form but this isn't the way TD has described his way of trading.

Options I'm afraid I have to diasgree with you here. According to how Trander_Dante has show his way of trading Pin Bars that is a really good looking Pin Bar and one could place orders now for the break of the high. Nowhere has TD said that the bar after the Pin Bar has to be formed or start to form. If the trader is happy with how the pin bar looks and has enough other confluence then the trade can be taken ( on the break ).

Of course. That is how TD trades them and placing orders where you say will do no harm if it carries on down as they will not get filled. But it can't be a pin bar or pinnochio bar until after the 3rd bar is formed going by text book definition. (I'll try and find a link in a minute). What you say about look and feel and confluence is true.

Would be interested to hear what you look for in the next bar that would make you happy to take this trade. I have heard others say they wait for the 3rd bar to form but this isn't the way TD has described his way of trading.[/quote]

As part of my last paragraph. I would be looking for the second ear to form and show that there is additional support for the expected up move. Certainly under present conditions, I would almost certainly wait for the market to tip its' hand. Though not neccesarilly wait for the 3rd bar to form properly. TD places his orders and either gets filled if it goes the way he expects or pulls the orders and no harm done. As I say I wait for the lady to tip her hand. I'm a scaredy cat when trading. Also note I use a lot smaller timeframes Then an hour for a lot of my stuff. So I also use tighter stops and would probably place a stop just under the 'ears', With due consideration given to the fact that everybody is placing stops under that level. So I would add on a few.
Given these present cnditions I do want to be as close to certain as possible that I am going to get something out of the trade.