trader_dante
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Then they don't know what they're talking about because it's there and it's called Wall Street Rolling Daily.
Potential setups 2
- Thread starter N Rothschild
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Then they don't know what they're talking about because it's there and it's called Wall Street Rolling Daily.
glyder
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GBP CHF Trade
And it really flew.....Up over 400 points on the day
Is the swiss central bank is getting a real beating? Will it fight back??
And it really flew.....Up over 400 points on the day
Is the swiss central bank is getting a real beating? Will it fight back??
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trader_dante
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Pretty critical area for GBP/USD.
I got 92 pips out of the hourly setup at 6am GMT (reverse h&s and pin at s/r pivot) but daily is harder to gauge the next move at the moment.
Daily wise for the bulls we're getting a lot of long tails at horizontal support which coincides with 5 touches of that ascending TL. And you're with the short to medium term trend now after the basing pattern in early '09.
For the bears we have a pretty massive resistance around 1.66 - 1.6675 (also a s/r pivot - look back to Oct '08) plus you're with the longer term trend down.
Alot of people still ask me about these pivots. If it goes through a strong one, isn't that bullish/bearish and shouldn't I just get in?
No, is the simple answer to that. Watch what price does.
I wouldn't look to play a hard breakout here, personally. Last time I saw this exact same setup (albeit on the monthly TF), we pulled a massive headfake, took out the topside of the range and then collapsed.
Safest play on this TF for me would be to take out 1.6675, retest it from above, reject it sharply or base there and then play it long for 1.72, which incidentally is going to be massive. I wouldn't be playing the short side of the market yet on this TF.
I got 92 pips out of the hourly setup at 6am GMT (reverse h&s and pin at s/r pivot) but daily is harder to gauge the next move at the moment.
Daily wise for the bulls we're getting a lot of long tails at horizontal support which coincides with 5 touches of that ascending TL. And you're with the short to medium term trend now after the basing pattern in early '09.
For the bears we have a pretty massive resistance around 1.66 - 1.6675 (also a s/r pivot - look back to Oct '08) plus you're with the longer term trend down.
Alot of people still ask me about these pivots. If it goes through a strong one, isn't that bullish/bearish and shouldn't I just get in?
No, is the simple answer to that. Watch what price does.
I wouldn't look to play a hard breakout here, personally. Last time I saw this exact same setup (albeit on the monthly TF), we pulled a massive headfake, took out the topside of the range and then collapsed.
Safest play on this TF for me would be to take out 1.6675, retest it from above, reject it sharply or base there and then play it long for 1.72, which incidentally is going to be massive. I wouldn't be playing the short side of the market yet on this TF.
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GammaJammer
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And it really flew.....Up over 400 points on the day
Is the swiss central bank is getting a real beating? Will it fight back??
Well there were decent bids again 1.5295/05 area earlier this morning but they seem to have gone for now. Trading a touch softer. Don't rule out fireworks later though. Just the sort of move that could kill a few people this afternoon, aalthough the nearer we get to month / quarter / half year end the more sqwawking there will be if they mess up peoples' revals in the afternoon.
GammaJammer
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Absolutely spot on imho.
trader_dante
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Technically Fundamental
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I read something the other day saying the ECB wants to protect chf from greater falls against the euro. That should follow through across the board no?
GammaJammer
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Try 'SNB' and 'Gains' and you're closer Aaron...
trader_dante
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First off you've got your post totally the wrong way around. It's not the ECB it's the Swiss National Bank (SNB). Secondly they want to stop the Swiss Franc gaining not falling.
Thirdly, stop reading and start watching price lol.
From what I've observed, traders love testing central bank rhetoric. If you watch the markets after the intial reaction you will see this happen time and time again. If the SNB says its going to let the CHF depreciate, you can bet your bottom dollar that most of the time, as soon as the parabolic move up is out of the way, it's going to make its merry way back down, drifting lower, getting as many c*nts in as possible who think its a great bargain since they are being backed by a bank.
As per my last post, you can see that I might be about to become one of said c*nts but rest assured its nothing to do with the SNB or anything I've read.
Technically Fundamental
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Yeh I must have crossed wires with something I read on ransqwaurk.
Dont you consider anything but PA in your trading TD? News and/or fundamentals must factor in to some extent :-S
Dont you consider anything but PA in your trading TD? News and/or fundamentals must factor in to some extent :-S
trader_dante
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I don't follow the news at all anymore. The only time I bother to look is if its something that everyone is really waiting for. E.g. A quant easing announcement, a rate decision, non farms...all other fundamentals and news takes a back seat for me.
If you think the fundamentals suggest the Dollar is going to collapse and that the UK economy is improving - Where is your stop going? Where is your target going? Where are you getting in?
GammaJammer
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Aaron remember eurchf lower = swissy APPRECIATING as 1.5275 means one euro will buy 1.5275 swiss francs. If we go back to 1.50, Euro will buy less swiss francs, therefore euro weaker. Ergo swissy stronger.
And in terms of ECB, they could have potentially aided the SNB (who intervened certainly in both their own name and through the BIS for sure). Plus a lot of people including the BoE have been talking the dollar up lately, so the past couple of days have smelled a touch like co-ordinated intervention (this maybe was what your sqwawk service was talking about?)
And in terms of ECB, they could have potentially aided the SNB (who intervened certainly in both their own name and through the BIS for sure). Plus a lot of people including the BoE have been talking the dollar up lately, so the past couple of days have smelled a touch like co-ordinated intervention (this maybe was what your sqwawk service was talking about?)
bbmac
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gbpusd
Just adding to that excellent Trader_Dante gbpusd analysis above, the 4hr chart shows the channel that has developed with support /channel bottom zone being tested 6 times from the original test of previous resistance as it became support. The resistance zone above and channel top has been tested twice now.
To the upside above the current 4hr channel top zone, that previous monthly swing lo zone on 2nd screenshot has the potential to see support become resistance (sbr) and there are a number of 50% fibs of the falls from 1162, 0395, 0157 to 3505, in that vicinity too.
To the downside the main potential support zone is shown on that 4hr chart (channel bottom potential support zone) with some ascending trend lines coming through on the 1hr upwards. Above that 4hr potential support zone There is further potential support visible on the 1hr t/f in respect of previous near term imbalances of supply/demand (potential rbs) and demand/supply (potential support) as well as fibs of the moves up from 6230 and 6371 in particular. Trend remains up on 1hr chart as price backs away from a 1.618% fib extension and minor previous 1hr sw lo zone on that t/f, around 6530/35-current intraday hi.
As Tom intimates above one of these channel extremes is gonna give..sometime !
Just adding to that excellent Trader_Dante gbpusd analysis above, the 4hr chart shows the channel that has developed with support /channel bottom zone being tested 6 times from the original test of previous resistance as it became support. The resistance zone above and channel top has been tested twice now.
To the upside above the current 4hr channel top zone, that previous monthly swing lo zone on 2nd screenshot has the potential to see support become resistance (sbr) and there are a number of 50% fibs of the falls from 1162, 0395, 0157 to 3505, in that vicinity too.
To the downside the main potential support zone is shown on that 4hr chart (channel bottom potential support zone) with some ascending trend lines coming through on the 1hr upwards. Above that 4hr potential support zone There is further potential support visible on the 1hr t/f in respect of previous near term imbalances of supply/demand (potential rbs) and demand/supply (potential support) as well as fibs of the moves up from 6230 and 6371 in particular. Trend remains up on 1hr chart as price backs away from a 1.618% fib extension and minor previous 1hr sw lo zone on that t/f, around 6530/35-current intraday hi.
As Tom intimates above one of these channel extremes is gonna give..sometime !
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Don't change your name, be proud of being called Aaron. It's you all over, Aaron the PA trader. It's got a certain 'ring' to it mate.
GammaJammer
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"Action is his middle name"
(actually, scratch that, he's an accountant. Probably Gerald....)
(actually, scratch that, he's an accountant. Probably Gerald....)
"Action is his middle name"
(actually, scratch that, he's an accountant. Probably Gerald....)
Aaron 'action' Mullets,...PA trading,...and loving it!
firewalker99
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