Post your Losing Strategies Here!

However saying what I say above - a strategy of shorting in a bull market and going long in a bear market would probably do it. As they say a market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. So even decent MM would not save you.
 
zupcon said:
OK, lets try to firm up the rules:

Bunny's developed a bit of a following trading EURUSD, I have no objection to sticking with that, although if you'd rather a bit more volatility thats fine by me.

I have no objection whatsoever if you'd like to pass up selected entries, if you wish to impose the additional constraint of taking every set up thats fine, but I certainly would not expect you to take trades that dont meet with your criteria

Im fine with discretionary exits, although this of course means that verification by EA wont be possible, which pretty much invalidates the whole challenge for those who are critisising the "system" rather than the trader, but I'll play along How do you suggest we monitor your entries and exits, I assume posting in a forum is going to be problematic ?

Lets take a look at the stats at the end of the week and decide if the sample population is sufficient to draw a meaningful conclusion.
Click to expand...

I don't want any wishy washy entries because then you'll use that against me in the future.

I want YOU to pick the currency so I can't be accused of CHERRY PICKING the currency.

The rules ARE firm:

1) We use the first 3 numbers that were posted by people since I asked as the PRICE ENDING NUMBERS.

2) We use an H1 chart to determine the candle color and trade direction. Close above open is GREEN CANDLE, close below open is RED CANDLE.

3) If the candle is GREEN and price moves UP to one of the prices ending in the random number then we go long. If the candle is RED and price moves DOWN to one of the prices ending in the random number then we go short. NO long entries on RED candles and NO short entries on GREEN candles.

4) We take the FIRST TRADE in each direction each hour. This means the maximum number of trades per hour is 2. One long and one short. We do NOT pass up or cherry pick trades.

5) If a line is never touched, then NO TRADE.

6) 5 Pips or more is considered a winning trade.

7) We will STOP LOSS at 20 pips OR if the candle changes color AND hits a price ending in one of the random numbers. For example if we are long at x.xx25 and the price never reaches x.xx30 and the H1 candle turns red and hits x.xx09 (assuming 09 is another random number) then we will stop out and reverse (assuming this is the first time x.xx09 was hit this hour).

8) We will trade the EURUSD unless this is NOT your favorite currency.

Let me know if the rules need more clarification or explanation.
 
Back to Strategies: Opening Range Breakout.

You spend your time and money finding out why.
 
TheRumpledOne said:
I don't want any wishy washy entries because then you'll use that against me in the future.
Click to expand...

I'm genuinely interested in watching this play out, if this exercise help's others understand the method I'm quite happy to be proved wrong, (although the lack of a mechnical exit proves the point others have been making)

TheRumpledOne said:
I want YOU to pick the currency so I can't be accused of CHERRY PICKING the currency.
Click to expand...

OK EURUSD

TheRumpledOne said:
The rules ARE firm:

1) We use the first 3 numbers that were posted by people since I asked as the PRICE ENDING NUMBERS. OK

2) We use an H1 chart to determine the candle color and trade direction. Close above open is GREEN CANDLE, close below open is RED CANDLE. OK

3) If the candle is GREEN and price moves UP to one of the prices ending in the random number then we go long. If the candle is RED and price moves DOWN to one of the prices ending in the random number then we go short. NO long entries on RED candles and NO short entries on GREEN candles. OK

4) We take the FIRST TRADE in each direction each hour. This means the maximum number of trades per hour is 2. One long and one short. We do NOT pass up or cherry pick trades. OK

5) If a line is never touched, then NO TRADE. OK, Although there are bound to be slight discrepencies between data feeds, but it'll all average out, if you say a line was touched, thats fine by me

6) 5 Pips or more is considered a winning trade. Any positive outcome is a winning trade, I assume you will call exits in real time (although you have yet to specify the method by which you will be calling these trades)

7) We will STOP LOSS at 20 pips OR if the candle changes color AND hits a price ending in one of the random numbers. For example if we are long at x.xx25 and the price never reaches x.xx30 and the H1 candle turns red and hits x.xx09 (assuming 09 is another random number) then we will stop out and reverse (assuming this is the first time x.xx09 was hit this hour). OK, no problem

8) We will trade the EURUSD unless this is NOT your favorite currency. EURUSD is fine

Let me know if the rules need more clarification or explanation.
Click to expand...

We just need to clarify how you'll be calling your exits in order that they can be independantly verified
 
I agree on the exits as they are so easy to call in hindsight and are just as important as the entry. As this is a scalping system then the best exit I can offer is some sort of fast moving average cross on the 1 or 5 min chart as we are basically playing a short term trend.

If we finalise the exits then an EA ( which I will hopefully build tomorrow, although it may end up taking a few days as I'm not as free this week as I thought) could be used to verify the results.


Edit: If we stick with discretionary exit then we could use optimisation to show the effect of differing exit strategies and their effect?
 
rsua75.gif


Template and indicator attached so all can follow along.

I will NOT be posting trades. This takes ME out of the equation.

All can SEE what the trades are. The indicator has an alert ( input switch ) to tell you when and how to enter the trade.

NOTE: FOUND/FIXED BUG IN INDICATOR
 

Attachments

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Last edited:
zupcon said:
I'm genuinely interested in watching this play out, if this exercise help's others understand the method I'm quite happy to be proved wrong, (although the lack of a mechnical exit proves the point others have been making)



OK EURUSD



We just need to clarify how you'll be calling your exits in order that they can be independantly verified
Click to expand...

I said 5 or more pips is considered a win. I'll settle for 5 pips for the purpose of the challenge.
 
UKtradergirl said:
Has your EA turned evil? :devilish:
Are your moving averages conspiring against you?
Is your stop loss always in the wrong place at the wrong time?

I'd love to hear from any of you who have very badly losing strategies, particularly if they have been 'proved' to be awful through real live trading. Please share your strategies here... long term, short term, scalping, whatever.

If you have never had an unsuccessful system (i don't believe you), then think of one and post it here.

I'll start off with one:

The '1 pip per day strategy'. All you need is one pip per day to make a fortune. Place a trade, any trade, any time. As soon as it is 1 pip in profit close it. No stop loss necessary. 100% success rate as no losing trade ever gets closed.

--
Click to expand...

Difficult to judge if a strategy is a losing or winning one for small number of trades .

Lets say we go to casino to lose our money ,,
let say you have £10K and you bet on red or black,, it is quite possible to turn the £10K into 80K in 3 spins of the roulette table even if you tried to lose the capital but it is guaranteed the £10K will shrink to zero after 300 spins.
Winning and losing strategies only have meaningful concept in long term and not in short term at all..

This is why you should look at a trade's P/L after 12 month and not 12 trades.

I know for fact that many traders have winning strategies but they bin it only because their first 5 trade was a loss.

Grey1
 
Grey1 said:
Difficult to judge if a strategy is a losing or winning one for small number of trades .

Lets say we go to casino to lose our money ,,
let say you have £10K and you bet on red or black,, it is quite possible to turn the £10K into 80K in 3 spins of the roulette table even if you tried to lose the capital but it is guaranteed the £10K will shrink to zero after 300 spins.
Winning and losing strategies only have meaningful concept in long term and not in short term at all..

This is why you should look at a trade's P/L after 12 month and not 12 trades.

I know for fact that many traders have winning strategies but they bin it only because their first 5 trade was a loss.

Grey1
Click to expand...


It is actually extremely hard to lose money without taking into account commissions. :D Ironic eh?

A very good post, Grey- and how very true- it is extremely difficult to stick with a strategy that you know how has edge when you have a number of consecutive losses. Therein lies a dilemma- is it that the strategy is not working in present market conditions, or is it that you are just experiencing normal fluctuations/losing streak?
 
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