Lodian1019
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People Lie
So havinh a 1:1 r/r
Risking 1% per trade on it
And having an average of 55%
is not possible?
10 trades per days
200 trades per months
110 win
90 lost
+20 u
20 x 1000$ = 20 000$?
So you guys are telling me that the good traders cannot have a 55% win rate?
Risking 1% per trade on it
And having an average of 55%
is not possible?
10 trades per days
200 trades per months
110 win
90 lost
+20 u
20 x 1000$ = 20 000$?
So you guys are telling me that the good traders cannot have a 55% win rate?
Pazienza
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I have a higher hit rate than that. But hit rate is to a large extent just another meaningless figure without knowing the full picture.
Pazienza
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You left out costs
.No, it's fine, it was just a general point really. People spend a lot of time thinking about things like strike rate, r:r and so on. These are nice, but they're not something to obsess over.
But yes, you only need a small positive position to do very well in the long run.
wackypete2
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:clap::clap:
Haha, I''m pissing myself over that one!
- "Here's some advice. I don't know what it means but it sure sounds good"
Sorry, Lodian, I know it's not exactly what you meant, but I had a good laugh
LMAO!
meanreversion
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Look at it a different way. Your tidy little calculations result in 20% a month profit, only betting 1%. Why not bet 2%, and make 40% a month? Or better still, bet 5% a month (that's not that much!) and double your money every single month.
Can you see how your worked example is a little irrelevant? And if you can't, then work out in your own mind precisely what strategy or method allows you to trade 200 times a month with a 55% win rate (net of commission and bid/ask).. if you can trade like this consistently then sure, you'll become wealthy very quickly.
Ok you look smart even if you post don't show it very well.
First we all know we have liquidity issues someday I don't think I can scalp or daytrade with 10 000$ swing without big slippage so the OMG I WILL BE RICH argument is a llittle bit pointless.
Second I don't say I do it or know someone who do it I'm asking if the professional here think it's something possible. Your answer is clearly no so I want to ask you first, are you a succesful trader and if yes what is realistic gain on a 100 000$ accound for a month 0.1%? 1%? 5%?
Pazienza
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20% per month is perfectly realistic, but you would need a lot of skill and experience.
meanreversion
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I look smart even if my post doesn't show it? What does that mean?
I've seen posts like yours hundreds of times on t2w; I'm convinced there's a cognitive bias for the line of argument, call it the "law of small numbers" if you will. Surely a 55% win rate can't be hard (only 5% more than random!), then betting only 1% (such a tiny amount) will yield 20% a month, provided you get 200 signals of course.
Then when I rephrase the original calculation to show that 100% a month isn't difficult (I've done this before, by the way), the response is "well, liquidity issues blah blah". FX turnover is $4 trillion a day, do you think anyone cares about your puny $100k? .. i.e. liquidity is NOT an issue until your capital is in the tens or even hundreds of millions.
So you need to THINK a little more, and I would suggest "Trade your way to financial freedom" by Van Tharp, an excellent book irrespective of trading experience.
Finally, am I successful? Yes, I was up last year but I don't care to reveal by what percentage. My account is larger than the number you've given, and I would never even aim to target 20% a month, because I am not prepared to tolerate significant drawdown (>30%).
Is 20% a month possible on a 6 figure account? Not consistently. To even consider aiming for >100% a year you need to withstand potentially devastating drawdown (50%+). And here's another bias for you - people always overestimate their capacity for drawdown.
I don't agree with this, if your win rate is a least 55% and you only risk 1% on each trade yea its possible to have a drawdown of 50%+ but its highly improbable. But I agree that if I had over 1 million I don't want drawdowns over 20%.
I'm happy that you replied to my post thats the kind of answers and opinions I want thank you. But I got another question for you, by reading what you've said you think it's not possible to have a edge on futures or forex on shorterm timeframe and do over 200 trades a month with 55%?
Pazienza
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200 trades a month would be impossible to me. I cannot conceive of finding 200 trades a month that met my criteria.
DashRiprock
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hi pavlec
it says on your forst post in this blog that you are still a newbie so if you look on my blog i am writing about how learner traders can learn to trade
but when you talk about returns like this you are putting the carrage before the horse. like everyone else says its more about drawdowns and risk but even before then without a robust method and mind then you can forget about returns forever.
sorry but cest la vie
it says on your forst post in this blog that you are still a newbie so if you look on my blog i am writing about how learner traders can learn to trade
but when you talk about returns like this you are putting the carrage before the horse. like everyone else says its more about drawdowns and risk but even before then without a robust method and mind then you can forget about returns forever.
sorry but cest la vie
meanreversion
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You're as sharp as a banana.
Do you think it's possible to have an edge in order to make 100% a month? You only need to risk 5% per trade, and liquidity won't be an issue until you're at $100mio of equity.
Hilarymannah
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Like your sig' meanie,.......I'll hold the gun if you please (should be fun)
BTW: You don't have to worry,. you wont see it coming, some call me the "mechanic",..and not because of my trading methodology!
http://www.themechanicmovie.co.uk/
BTW: You don't have to worry,. you wont see it coming, some call me the "mechanic",..and not because of my trading methodology!
http://www.themechanicmovie.co.uk/
DashRiprock
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meanreversion
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didn't he say something like "shoot me if i go near a f---ing boat again" live on air? that was amusing .
steve redgrave, total legend.
steve redgrave, total legend.
It difficult if you are trading only 1 instrument per day, e.g forex (GBP/USD). If you trade more than 1 instrument, it is no longer 1% per day. It is 1% x number trades.
If you focus only on FOREX, it is also difficult as most FOREX instruments mostly move in one direction and behaves very unstable.
If you have a platform that allows you to trade all markets - futures, forex, etc, with a good trading strategy it is possible to trade 1% in several places in one day.
Aiming to make a return everyday, is the easiest way to wipe out your money as this may not be possible every day. But if you know the art of draw-down, you will make good return at the one of the month.
Here is a recipe I use in the last 7 months averaging +1000 pips per month or +20% return per month on 100,000
I spread 14% into 7 markets or 2% in 7 places, not everyday, sometimes not even every week, and you will need to learn what is called draw-down.
With 159% return after 7 months, I can actually spread 2% in 14 places with ease, but at the right time. Put less money on FOREX, Eur/usd Gold/usd, Silver/usd, this combination can spring lots of suprises at the moment and they will tie down your number of trades you want to spread per day/per month. Best in this year ftse 100 and DAX.
You can check this demonstration here.
http://www.marketchaos.co.za/daniel-feeds.htm
Honestly I was watching ES and I really thought that with a 8/8 ticks you can do an average of +1 units per day. Am I naive?