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starspacer
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To clarify: I refer to all the 'edge' factors which go towards measuring and accurately appraising market conditions, rather than specific minute to minute price movements. I should have been clearer but had a rather sumptuous feast awaiting (8 ounce wild boar with brioche toast and a glass of De Sanglia 1989 vintage).dc2000 said:
As for the FTSE, my market is more the commodities & you will note from previous posts that anyone who has followed my path & forecasts would be immensely wealthy by now.
I shall now savour a glass of Cheval Blanc. I do recommend.
A Dashing Blade
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starspacer said:
Er, one call on Natural Gas (no idea, I'm not in the office atm) and two calls predicting the Dow would crash from what I can see? Clearly that second bottle of De Sanglia 1989 was off.
starspacer
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You clearly haven't interpreted my posts correctly. The NatGas was closed out at a substantial profit (I posted the exact timings and trades including when exited). If you read my comments on the Dow and interpret them correctly and in context,I was predicting that the exact opposite would occur. I predicted a surge then a crash. We are still in the mid stages of the surge and I have benefited enormously from that (although my holdings have mostly been in gold & precious metals over the past few years).A Dashing Blade said:Er, one call on Natural Gas (no idea, I'm not in the office atm) and two calls predicting the Dow would crash from what I can see? Clearly that second bottle of De Sanglia 1989 was off.
You conveniently didn't mention that on that same thread, I made a bold prediction about the price of gold, which, of course came to pass.
I will now enjoy a 2nd glass and toast continued success.
SOCRATES
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Precisely, exactly. Everything is known in advance. I have a dinner guest you would all die to meet and that Bully and chums admire greatly but have made a brief excuse just to pop in to see what is going on here.....Tomorrow when all the divinations are made and the number crunch is complete I will be able to give you a clearer idea of what I will do next. But now I have to return for the coffee and mints.starspacer said:
starspacer
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This is the exact transcript of my post #528 (posted on 11th Feb 2006).A Dashing Blade said:Er, one call on Natural Gas (no idea, I'm not in the office atm) and two calls predicting the Dow would crash from what I can see? Clearly that second bottle of De Sanglia 1989 was off.
Subsequent to my post the Dow did go through 11k, then on the 13th June 06, slumped to 10,706. All exactly as predicted in advance by myself.
I don't need to elaborate on what happened to energy last year (surged). Nat Gas intra-day trades were posted for all to see, all profitable.
Finally, the price of gold was $549 as at the date of posting and of course surged to $725 on the 12th May 06. That's a 32% rise.
See post http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showpost.php?p=233975&postcount=7 for the NatGas prediction which netted me over 11%for that week. I could go on. Quite frankly, off hand, I can't remember what my last losing trade was.
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CYOF
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starspacer said:You clearly haven't interpreted my posts correctly. The NatGas was closed out at a substantial profit (I posted the exact timings and trades including when exited). If you read my comments on the Dow and interpret them correctly and in context,I was predicting that the exact opposite would occur. I predicted a surge then a crash. We are still in the mid stages of the surge and I have benefited enormously from that (although my holdings have mostly been in gold & precious metals over the past few years).
You conveniently didn't mention that on that same thread, I made a bold prediction about the price of gold, which, of course came to pass.
I will now enjoy a 2nd glass and toast continued success.
You are wasting your time my good friend.
Like Socrates, your abilities are there for all to see, but you will always have the few that do not like to see others better equipped than they, with the sword of truth, and so, all they can resort to is ridicule and insults for to try and disguise their blatant ignorance.
I congratulate Socrates, and yourself starspacer, on your personal victories, and some day the court will come to a Realisation of who speaks the truth, and who are the ones that continually try and twist the minds of the Populous.
It is many a Meletus we have amongst us
Slainte,
bluetipex
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A little contrarian parhaps...
A very popular thread, which has perhaps deviated a little from the original theme.
I have only dabbled in options a few years back, so am by no means an expert. There are many here who I'm sure are far more knowledgeable, so what I'm about to say may be completely wrong! I'm sure I'll be corrected very swiftly if that is the case!
It has been said that the Writer has the edge over the Buyer, and I believe this to be true from simply looking at the 3 to 1 ratio of successful end results of writing over buying. However, I, like a few others, submit that this has not been proven by the exercise completed. Simple logic is all that is required to conclude this. In addition, the "edge" has never been adequately defined. It is up to the subjective opinion of the reader to define this for themselves. Therefore, the stated aim of this thread has NOT been accomplished.
In my humble opinion, a simplistic view of a successful trader is one who is skilled in predicting TIMING and DIRECTION. If one can master this then you will be successful.
What Socrates has proven, in my humble opinion, is that he has mastered this very, very, very difficult task. (I have assumed that the trades were actually placed by him, etc. I believe he deserves the benefit of the doubt).
To emphasise my point even more clearly, I'd like you to consider the following scenario:
Suppose another contributer to T2W, let's say his nick is "PYTHAGORUS", decided to prove that Option BUYERS have the edge over Option WRITERS by successfully completing 20 option trades, buying FTSE Call options over the past 3-4 weeks. He posted his trades live, and could be seen on the web etc. These 20 trades are all profitable. How many of you would then agree that PYTHAGORUS has proven his hypothesis? I would not. I would say that PYTHAGORUS is an excellent trader, and has mastered market TIMING and DIRECTION. He would deserve, in my opinion, equal respect and admiration as Socrates.
If PYTHAGORUS and SOCRATES sit opposite each other, each drinking a glass of their favourite tipple, each arguing that their case has been proven, who would win the argument? Surely they would go round and round and round in circles?
The above scenario illustrates why I believe the stated aim of this thread has not been proven. A DIFFERENT exercise would have to be carried out to PROVE this aim, after having DEFINED all the parameters involved, especially "EDGE".
Would one of you option experts please correct me if my grasp of options has been exposed for the inadequacy that is highly likely? Please show me the flaw in my logic.
(I also wonder how quickly someone will create the nick "PYTHAGORUS" and start posting live trades!!!!)
A very popular thread, which has perhaps deviated a little from the original theme.
I have only dabbled in options a few years back, so am by no means an expert. There are many here who I'm sure are far more knowledgeable, so what I'm about to say may be completely wrong! I'm sure I'll be corrected very swiftly if that is the case!
It has been said that the Writer has the edge over the Buyer, and I believe this to be true from simply looking at the 3 to 1 ratio of successful end results of writing over buying. However, I, like a few others, submit that this has not been proven by the exercise completed. Simple logic is all that is required to conclude this. In addition, the "edge" has never been adequately defined. It is up to the subjective opinion of the reader to define this for themselves. Therefore, the stated aim of this thread has NOT been accomplished.
In my humble opinion, a simplistic view of a successful trader is one who is skilled in predicting TIMING and DIRECTION. If one can master this then you will be successful.
What Socrates has proven, in my humble opinion, is that he has mastered this very, very, very difficult task. (I have assumed that the trades were actually placed by him, etc. I believe he deserves the benefit of the doubt).
To emphasise my point even more clearly, I'd like you to consider the following scenario:
Suppose another contributer to T2W, let's say his nick is "PYTHAGORUS", decided to prove that Option BUYERS have the edge over Option WRITERS by successfully completing 20 option trades, buying FTSE Call options over the past 3-4 weeks. He posted his trades live, and could be seen on the web etc. These 20 trades are all profitable. How many of you would then agree that PYTHAGORUS has proven his hypothesis? I would not. I would say that PYTHAGORUS is an excellent trader, and has mastered market TIMING and DIRECTION. He would deserve, in my opinion, equal respect and admiration as Socrates.
If PYTHAGORUS and SOCRATES sit opposite each other, each drinking a glass of their favourite tipple, each arguing that their case has been proven, who would win the argument? Surely they would go round and round and round in circles?
The above scenario illustrates why I believe the stated aim of this thread has not been proven. A DIFFERENT exercise would have to be carried out to PROVE this aim, after having DEFINED all the parameters involved, especially "EDGE".
Would one of you option experts please correct me if my grasp of options has been exposed for the inadequacy that is highly likely? Please show me the flaw in my logic.
(I also wonder how quickly someone will create the nick "PYTHAGORUS" and start posting live trades!!!!)
counter_violent
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CYOF
You have stated time after time that you know nothing.......
I absolutely agree....
actually I will go further.....
less than nothing
are you happy now ?
You have stated time after time that you know nothing.......
I absolutely agree....
actually I will go further.....
less than nothing
are you happy now ?
SOCRATES
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I have just come in as my dinner guests have just left.counter_violent said:
I must comment it is very pleasing to read your post.
There is a vast difference between knowing a lot and revealing very little and knowing very little and revealing a lot.
Those who post here and know very little reveal a great deal, but not only about the fact they know very little, but also because they in post in persistent contradiction. This pleases me enormously I will have you know.
Everything is known in advance, but there again you need to have the special goggles to be able to percieve properly.....no goggles....no proper perception......:cheesy:
bluetipex said:
Mmm, 126 pages.
Your excellent post gives me an opportunity to repeat myself, again. Socrates edge is based on his location of the Black Swan and his rolled up newspaper. That is, in fact, the only argument I have against his strategy and, if it was not for that, I would be writing away like Agatha Christie on skates. The fact that the loss could mean everything is inhibiting to me, though. As I heard once "I've been eating regular meals a long time, it's getting to be a habit".
What you failed to explain was why you left option trading? Probably, for the same reason as I. I found that buying calls, even though I got the direction right, was unlucrative because of time decay. When I found out where to avoid as much decay as possible ,I found the options were unattractive.
The comparison of writing against buying is not made on an even playing field and the former is, deceptively, attractive. Socrates, probably, thought that he ate Black Swan for dinner last night. Black Swan's dad is around the corner, now.
Split
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Think of a balanced six sided dice, numbered 1 thru 6. What are the odds of throwing a number 3 ? or throwing a number 5 ? 6/1 I here you say, or 16.7% I here you say too.starspacer said:
So far so good.
Now, imagine that the same dice will pay out the value of whatever number is thrown. For example, throw a 3 get paid £ 3, throw a 5 get paid £ 5 and so on.
What is the fair value of the number 1 as a bet ?
Is it £ 0.08
Is it £ 0.16
Is it £ 0.50
Is it £ 0.75
What is the fair value of the number 4 as a bet ?
Is it £ 0.32
Is it £ 0.64
Is it £ 1.00
Is it £ 2.00
What is the fair value of the number 2 AND number 6 as a combined bet (think of it as a strangle)
Is it £ 1.00
Is it £ 1.33
Is it £ 1.99
Is it £ 2.10
There is no need to reply with your answer. But I post it up really to say that anybody that cannot answer the above very basic probability question cannot possibly understand how options work and how options are priced and therefore should not be trading options, at least not unless they are prepared to lose their shirt, and then some.
starspacer
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A little allegory might help to illuminate the ideas submitted in this thread, as clearly, many don’t (or are unable to) grasp true Socratic thinking.
There is a world called Tulipsia. This world is quite small and consists of one large country called Herdia and one small island called Socratai.
The 2 places are very different. Over 95% of the world live in Herdia. It is a very unpleasant place. Full of people viciously competing amongst themselves to out do each other, but in a way that appears that they are actually helping one another. It is rather like Dante’s hell. A place where people have cut down all the trees to build identikit homes. Mass factory produced food is injected with hormones to feed the ever expanding population. A dense smog hangs permanently over the country, which effects the ability of the people to clearly think. Rather like a smog on the brain. The Thought Police, who control Herdia add mind-numbing chemicals to this smog so that they can keep the population suitably in check.
For the people in Herdia, although life is grim, they daren’t make the long and gruelling journey to Socratai. They are told by their Thought Police that the Socrataiins are deranged thinkers and cannibals who enjoy nothing better than dining on the sweet delicacy of Herdian flesh. That said, there is quite a thriving trade between the 2 countries. Herdia exports smog filters, which are needed by Socrataiins to keep their island from becoming polluted from the dense clouds that drift across from Herdia. In exchange, Socrataiins write options, which are always in great demand.
Unfortunately, Herdia runs a substantial trade deficit with Socratai. The Socrataiins, being of generous nature regularly write off this debt.
The Socrataiins are a very small group of people who have undertaken the extraordinarily difficult journey from Herdia. Once they found this paradise island, they determined that it must remain so & not become destroyed by greed, avarice and poor thinking. They built magnificent cultural buildings, the like of which had never been seen before. These buildings blended perfectly with the scenery and were of extraordinary aesthetic beauty.
Although the Socrataiins are less than 5% of the world population, they earn 95% of the wealth. Now the Socrataiins have the genius necessary to take 100%, but they realize that this would create enormous jealousy and that they would be eventually invaded by the Herdians. They gather together regularly for collective meetings of thought and permit Herdia to continue to believe that Socratai is an island of deluded lunatics and narcissists, a truly unpleasant place. They also, now & again write an option which loses a modest amount so that the Herdians can continue to feed themselves.
Socrataiins enjoy an Elysian life, but one they are determined to keep. Even now, they are building a truly astounding defence shield, which one day, will be needed to boomerang away the enormous influx of Herdians, who are, even now, beginning to gather at the gates.
There is a world called Tulipsia. This world is quite small and consists of one large country called Herdia and one small island called Socratai.
The 2 places are very different. Over 95% of the world live in Herdia. It is a very unpleasant place. Full of people viciously competing amongst themselves to out do each other, but in a way that appears that they are actually helping one another. It is rather like Dante’s hell. A place where people have cut down all the trees to build identikit homes. Mass factory produced food is injected with hormones to feed the ever expanding population. A dense smog hangs permanently over the country, which effects the ability of the people to clearly think. Rather like a smog on the brain. The Thought Police, who control Herdia add mind-numbing chemicals to this smog so that they can keep the population suitably in check.
For the people in Herdia, although life is grim, they daren’t make the long and gruelling journey to Socratai. They are told by their Thought Police that the Socrataiins are deranged thinkers and cannibals who enjoy nothing better than dining on the sweet delicacy of Herdian flesh. That said, there is quite a thriving trade between the 2 countries. Herdia exports smog filters, which are needed by Socrataiins to keep their island from becoming polluted from the dense clouds that drift across from Herdia. In exchange, Socrataiins write options, which are always in great demand.
Unfortunately, Herdia runs a substantial trade deficit with Socratai. The Socrataiins, being of generous nature regularly write off this debt.
The Socrataiins are a very small group of people who have undertaken the extraordinarily difficult journey from Herdia. Once they found this paradise island, they determined that it must remain so & not become destroyed by greed, avarice and poor thinking. They built magnificent cultural buildings, the like of which had never been seen before. These buildings blended perfectly with the scenery and were of extraordinary aesthetic beauty.
Although the Socrataiins are less than 5% of the world population, they earn 95% of the wealth. Now the Socrataiins have the genius necessary to take 100%, but they realize that this would create enormous jealousy and that they would be eventually invaded by the Herdians. They gather together regularly for collective meetings of thought and permit Herdia to continue to believe that Socratai is an island of deluded lunatics and narcissists, a truly unpleasant place. They also, now & again write an option which loses a modest amount so that the Herdians can continue to feed themselves.
Socrataiins enjoy an Elysian life, but one they are determined to keep. Even now, they are building a truly astounding defence shield, which one day, will be needed to boomerang away the enormous influx of Herdians, who are, even now, beginning to gather at the gates.
dc2000
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starspacer said:A little allegory might help to illuminate the ideas submitted in this thread, as clearly, many don’t (or are unable to) grasp true Socratic thinking.
There is a world called Tulipsia. This world is quite small and consists of one large country called Herdia and one small island called Socratai.
The 2 places are very different. Over 95% of the world live in Herdia. It is a very unpleasant place. Full of people viciously competing amongst themselves to out do each other, but in a way that appears that they are actually helping one another. It is rather like Dante’s hell. A place where people have cut down all the trees to build identikit homes. Mass factory produced food is injected with hormones to feed the ever expanding population. A dense smog hangs permanently over the country, which effects the ability of the people to clearly think. Rather like a smog on the brain. The Thought Police, who control Herdia add mind-numbing chemicals to this smog so that they can keep the population suitably in check.
For the people in Herdia, although life is grim, they daren’t make the long and gruelling journey to Socratai. They are told by their Thought Police that the Socrataiins are deranged thinkers and cannibals who enjoy nothing better than dining on the sweet delicacy of Herdian flesh. That said, there is quite a thriving trade between the 2 countries. Herdia exports smog filters, which are needed by Socrataiins to keep their island from becoming polluted from the dense clouds that drift across from Herdia. In exchange, Socrataiins write options, which are always in great demand.
Unfortunately, Herdia runs a substantial trade deficit with Socratai. The Socrataiins, being of generous nature regularly write off this debt.
The Socrataiins are a very small group of people who have undertaken the extraordinarily difficult journey from Herdia. Once they found this paradise island, they determined that it must remain so & not become destroyed by greed, avarice and poor thinking. They built magnificent cultural buildings, the like of which had never been seen before. These buildings blended perfectly with the scenery and were of extraordinary aesthetic beauty.
Although the Socrataiins are less than 5% of the world population, they earn 95% of the wealth. Now the Socrataiins have the genius necessary to take 100%, but they realize that this would create enormous jealousy and that they would be eventually invaded by the Herdians. They gather together regularly for collective meetings of thought and permit Herdia to continue to believe that Socratai is an island of deluded lunatics and narcissists, a truly unpleasant place. They also, now & again write an option which loses a modest amount so that the Herdians can continue to feed themselves.
Socrataiins enjoy an Elysian life, but one they are determined to keep. Even now, they are building a truly astounding defence shield, which one day, will be needed to boomerang away the enormous influx of Herdians, who are, even now, beginning to gather at the gates.
Class pure class
But answer me this my friend what makes you believe that Soc is wealthy ?
How do you know Soc is not a Herdian purporting to be a Socrataiin?
Do you know why scams work soooo well? because it is easy to sell a dream people want to believe in! wake up smell the coffee
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