mark120169
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I have just finished reading through this thread in whole and have no problems understanding how the system works. This has been fully explained, both for entry and exits. So a big congratulations to Pocrel for an excellent thread.
However apart from the few win / loss ratio posts posted by DDI over 100 and 150 trades position sizing per trade has not been made clear and results are always reported in pips which are mostly meaningless if they can't be equated back to % or risk per trade.
You could make +100 pips @ 1% risk and lose -40 pips @ 3% risk, have +60 pips for the day / week but be at a £££ 2% loss in "cash in bank terms".
I have pulled two replies on this posted and they seem to contridict each other, they are below.
So can i ask for some more clarification on this please?
Are you saying if a FTSE trade needs a 10 pip stop , with say 25 pip target to the next pivot and you risk 1% , if you get stopped out you lose 1%, but if you win you win 2.5%.
So then say a WTI oil trade with that needs a 50 pip stop but has a 150 pip pivot target you also risk 1% too? So if it gets stopped out @ -50 you lose 1% but if it wins you win 3%.
Is this what you are saying in the second statement made recently?
Or, as is often mentioned on some trades "only a small 8 pip loss" etc, which can't be true if 8 pips = 1%, 2% or 3%!
So are you saying you have a fixed value say the usual 30 pips = 2% of bank.
So therefore a Forex trade with a 15 pip stop and 30 pip target to next pivot yopu are risking 1% to gain 2%.
But with say Gold you need a 45 pip stop and have a 68 pip target to the next pivot (over the minimum 1:1) you are risking 3% on that trade to win 4.5% ?
Don't mean to sound "off" for a first post on this thread but i'm just trying to understand what you and others do Porcel. Becasue as we know pips don't always equal prizes in cash terms.
Thanks
M
However apart from the few win / loss ratio posts posted by DDI over 100 and 150 trades position sizing per trade has not been made clear and results are always reported in pips which are mostly meaningless if they can't be equated back to % or risk per trade.
You could make +100 pips @ 1% risk and lose -40 pips @ 3% risk, have +60 pips for the day / week but be at a £££ 2% loss in "cash in bank terms".
I have pulled two replies on this posted and they seem to contridict each other, they are below.
So can i ask for some more clarification on this please?
Are you saying if a FTSE trade needs a 10 pip stop , with say 25 pip target to the next pivot and you risk 1% , if you get stopped out you lose 1%, but if you win you win 2.5%.
So then say a WTI oil trade with that needs a 50 pip stop but has a 150 pip pivot target you also risk 1% too? So if it gets stopped out @ -50 you lose 1% but if it wins you win 3%.
Is this what you are saying in the second statement made recently?
Or, as is often mentioned on some trades "only a small 8 pip loss" etc, which can't be true if 8 pips = 1%, 2% or 3%!
So are you saying you have a fixed value say the usual 30 pips = 2% of bank.
So therefore a Forex trade with a 15 pip stop and 30 pip target to next pivot yopu are risking 1% to gain 2%.
But with say Gold you need a 45 pip stop and have a 68 pip target to the next pivot (over the minimum 1:1) you are risking 3% on that trade to win 4.5% ?
Don't mean to sound "off" for a first post on this thread but i'm just trying to understand what you and others do Porcel. Becasue as we know pips don't always equal prizes in cash terms.
Thanks
M
pocrel
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hi mark and cheers for the question
it not the easiest to answer but i will try,
an example i will use is if i have a 10 grand account
i will only risk 1.5% per trade s0 150 pounds at risk per trade
now if i win a trade (+250) then i will add the win to my capital so my next trade will be 1.5 % of 10250 = 153.57
now if i lose then i deducted 150 so my next trade position size will be 147.75
and so on and so on
as for say the ftse example you gave above a win would have worked like this
1.5% risk so if it lost -10 point that would be -150
if it won its 15 pounds a point, half off at 1 to1 = +75 second half off t pivot =+187.50
so total profit for trade +262.50
or a gain of 2.6%
no if you can get a small pin you position size is going to be much larger so the longer the pin the smaller your position size the further everything has to travel to get a profit
as an example if wti produces a larger pin of 150 points then you would need to to put on a half position size to get out of the trade in the way i do
but if you decide to wait for a retrace of a large pin then you can get more cash on with out risking anymore than you had to before 1.5%
not sure if that answers your questions, also i use pips as its easier show, also i have added a win/ loss trades count
but for me to work out the percentage for every trade for here then i would never get a trade on i think
mark120169
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Ok I understand the trading of % of bank, that is normal, and you elect to adjust position size after ever trade outcome win or loss. I personally only do this adjustment weekly, so some week's i'm trading a bigger % if the weeks starts witrh a few losses and other weeks i'm trading with a lower % of bank if the week starts with a few wins.
That is Money Management and everyone should do what they are comfortable with.
But the other part of you answer really raises my eyebrows. You really risk 1-2% on say only an 8 or 10 pip stop if the pin par / candle is very short?
I know the RRR would be very good but in most markets, and Forex and Oil especially (which I trade using AutofocuxFX system) a price movement of only 8-10 pips, even against a reversale pin bar is nothing!
Do these not get stopped out a lot ? This explains now why you seem to exit a fair few trades for 5 pips to 15 pips when maybe the target was 30-40 pips as 10 pips could = 1% !!
FTSE I could see maybe as we only use a standard 16 pip stop on out Affx trades for that so a 10 pip stop is not so scary.
But I have to say a 10 pip stop on say Cable off a pin bar reversal signal risking 1% or 2% would scare the crap out of me.
Maybe it's because I trade Cable daily on an AM breakout system where we use 30 pips @ 2% risk and many many days we go -15 to -20 pips before ending in profit or hitting TP.
I have even more respect for you trading this system using the MM. But this also means you could have say 5% + risk exposure daily if you have 4 or more trades on the go at once?
Anyway thanks for the explanation. Do you keep any record of the number of this systems trades at say 15 pips and under stops and their win ratio? I suspect they are fairly rare and have a lower rate than those around 30-45 pips.
I will have so time to play with this once the school summer Holidays arrive so may have a play @ 1/2% risk per trade to see how it performs. Just couldn't bring myself to put 1% - 2% risk on a very small stop just yet.
M
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mark120169
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Can I also ask about this. I understand scaling and use it a lot in my trading, and looking at DDI's win ratio figures it makes good sense with this system as oftem the 1 to 1 level is reached 65-75% of the time (on Oil and Forex anyway).
However you state you leave the second 1/2 of the trade to reach either TP or SL giving you a free trade, either win or b/e, but.............. why not move the s/l on the second 1/2 of the trade to b/e so @ 1 to 1 level you have either a small win or big win outcome with no loss?
Therfore only trades that fail to reach 1 to 1 will lose?
Having not traded this or monitored it or really ever worked woth pivots (I normally look and camarilla levels and S&R levels) is it the case that the patteren is often reaches 1 to 1 level, retraces to close to s/l ( heads back to the starting pivot and just beyond) then reverses again to reach the target pivot?
Bacause if the usual pattern is travels from 1 pivot to next pivot with some small retrace innetween but either reaches that target pivot or fails before 70% of the way the heads back and through the stop it would make much more sense to have exited the second part of the trade @ b/e ?
M
pocrel
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you are right mike it is scary but you tend to get these small pins really only on index such as ftse and cac, little bit more on dax s and p and dow trades, the average as you say is bout 15 to 25 on currencies and the average on gold 30 to 40, and oil could be anything but 50 is ususally a good number
as for exact returns on the size of the pins i dont keep records of this but you will be stopped out more often of small pin of course
as for having 5% on the go at anyone time i would never let this happen as i would not be able to think with that many trades going i am usually only ever in 2 trades max at anyone time
the dax today was a good example of a small pin and i risked 1.5% a loss unfortunatly but if it had one then i would be up alot today already even after the oil loss too
good luck with the system
patrick
pocrel
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Unluck geoff, been a difficult day but alot of trades around
gold should have been a nice win today, but alot of conflicting signals i am finding
i have finished the day a little down over the pin bar strategy but an old releable came to the rescue in the end today 😀
anyway i finished for the day
trades 2
2 losses
- 41 full points
back in the morning
mark120169
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Hi Patrick, I have heard of loads of Fx brokers but never heard of UWC , I assume it's this bunch? Just thought I would check before installing their Demo MT4.
I already have FXDD and FX Pro both on MT4 Demo for NY close time charts and have SLM live I place most of my trades with, but agree, SLM price feeds often differ from the other MT4 brokers.
www.uwcfx.com
Anyay if this is them I will try the auto pivots and then install it on FXDD and FX Pro Demo too to compare the levels it denerates compared to UWC.
Thanks
M
pocrel
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pocrel
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