"Overtrading" - one of many fallacies based on FURU logic

[tomorton]

You will never know that unfortunately, or when you know it will be too late.

If you don't know whether a given strategy is consistently profitable, you must think it is randomly profitable - no basis to be trading it anyway.

 

[dbphoenix]

You will never know that unfortunately, or when you know it will be too late.

All one has to do is put it together and test it before he gambles away his money.

 

[Lúidín]

All one has to do is put it together and test it before he gambles away his money.

rubbish..testing textbook crap is a waste of time..trading is 99.99% mental conditioning..and the rest is the easy bit

anyone who says otherwise is talking out their a.r.s.e...and those who try to peddle their "stuff" will of course keep on humming the same old tune:whistling

fools are born every minute..seems like they all end up on this site:cheesy:

 

[itspossible]

rubbish..testing textbook crap is a waste of time..trading is 99.99% mental conditioning..and the rest is the easy bit

anyone who says otherwise is talking out their a.r.s.e...and those who try to peddle their "stuff" will of course keep on humming the same old tune:whistling

fools are born every minute..seems like they all end up on this site:cheesy:

 

[IFeelFree]

rubbish..testing textbook crap is a waste of time..trading is 99.99% mental conditioning..and the rest is the easy bit

Forecasting market prices is easy? Good luck with that...

 

[Lúidín]

Forecasting market prices is easy? Good luck with that...

it all depends on what you are trying to achieve..and how long you want to give it

daytrading offers better control..swing trading offers greater reward..both have their own risk/ reward profiles

it is entirely up to the individual..text book rubbish is of limited value..why do you think so many rehash the same old stuff to sell to gullible people..cause they want you to make money..lol

no risk..no reward..plain and simple..if you don't understand risk and start playing around in the markets..there is no doubt what so ever that you will lose..might not be today..next week..or even for a few years..but..you will lose..guaranteed

 

[Lúidín]

Many traders have habit of over trading but some times it does not work with market. Instead of over trading, choose one perfect trade to get a good small profit is better.

good post..hope you are not trading FX?

 

[rexlord]

Many traders have habit of over trading but some times it does not work with market. Instead of over trading, choose one perfect trade to get a good small profit is better.

This doesn't exist. There is no such thing as "one perfect trade".
Even if your strategy produces 80%+ win rate, mathematically the next trade you take has a 50% chance of being a loser.

 

[rexlord]

I agree that overtrading as in having so many positions open at the same time that it violates you risk management - is bad. That's a good point.


Backtesting has its time and place. It is very helpful to see what an edge is.
But I agree that any over complicated technical analysis is laughable.
The vast majority of technical analysis out there is analyzing randomness when market is in a random walk.

Forecasting market prices doesn't have to be complicated. In fact the more complicated you get, the more datamining you are doing.

 

[dermotobrien]

I agree with the overtrading theory. I bet this applies to 80% of the traders that lose their investment. I personally trade on the 9-5 theory. I'll start at 9, find my picks, then make sure that any trades that have been opened (no more than 2) will be closed by 5.

I stick to this and have found success. It also allows you to 'switch off' in the evenings and control the stress that comes with trading.

 

[timsk]

. . .anyone who says otherwise is talking out their a.r.s.e...and those who try to peddle their "stuff" will of course keep on humming the same old tune:whistling

fools are born every minute..seems like they all end up on this site:cheesy:

. . . said the Coach / Trainer!

Lúidín - if you can't post without insulting other members - please refrain from posting at all. If you disagree with dbp - or any other member for that matter - rather than hurling insults, first outline why their comments lack merit and then outline why the approach you advocate is better. That way, everyone benefits.

Tim.

 

[hhiusa]

. . . said the Coach / Trainer!

Lúidín - if you can't post without insulting other members - please refrain from posting at all. If you disagree with dbp - or any other member for that matter - rather than hurling insults, first outline why their comments lack merit and then outline why the approach you advocate is better. That way, everyone benefits.

Tim.

Thank the Lord. :innocent:

 

[Lúidín]

. . . said the Coach / Trainer!

Lúidín - if you can't post without insulting other members - please refrain from posting at all. If you disagree with dbp - or any other member for that matter - rather than hurling insults, first outline why their comments lack merit and then outline why the approach you advocate is better. That way, everyone benefits.

Tim.

hi tim..i only insult people who insult me first..an eye for an eye

in relation to comments by db..a lot of newbies are gullible..which is expected as they have no experience..and they fail to do some research into what people say they can do to help others

for example..there is a post on another site..where a well respected full time trader..has stated that he was contacted by a person who lost a lot of money after listening to db and his take on what is required to be done in order to make money trading

if you think this is not relative..then you are 100% wrong..and db can of course defend himself..which he should do..as he is continually trying to sell info to people here..it is obvious in nearly every post he makes

people need to be very careful to whom they listen to when it comes to risking their hard earned money..if my memory serves me correct..mr charts had the same issue on this site some years ago..someone who paid him over 1k sterling for "training", lost a good bit of money trading - do you remember that or were you here then?

 

[Lúidín]

in relation to me being a coach/trainer..well..as every second member ob t2w is one..i said i might as well become one..the only difference with me..is that i will never charge any person money. as i have no need to..i make enough from my trading

hell..even one fellow here stated that " you don't have to trade to show people how to do it"..what do you think of that statement tim..would you give him some of your hard earned money for him to "show you" how to trade

 

[Lúidín]

Thank the Lord. :innocent:

says the yank who tried to do his journal on ET..and he was laughed out of the place by his own:cheesy:

plus he wont post his % return..as it is not his money..and his trading is like another trading 10 to 50 shares..but as usual..most can not see this..as they have no experience:whistling

 

[timsk]

Hi Lúidín,
I was in two minds whether or not to reply to your comments as, for the most part, it's old ground covered in depth many times in the past. However, perhaps you weren't around then, so for your benefit . . .

hi tim..i only insult people who insult me first..an eye for an eye

A better approach in my view is to offer the other cheek. Besides which, I've read through the thread and, as far as I can see, dbp hasn't even commented on your posts - let alone insulted you.

in relation to comments by db..a lot of newbies are gullible..which is expected as they have no experience..and they fail to do some research into what people say they can do to help others

for example..there is a post on another site..where a well respected full time trader..has stated that he was contacted by a person who lost a lot of money after listening to db and his take on what is required to be done in order to make money trading

Of the millions of posts on T2W and elsewhere, there's any amount of utter tosh that newbies can pay attention to if they choose and, in consequence, may end up losing money. If someone, somewhere, claims to have lost money following dbp's advice, that's most likely because they've not followed it correctly. I don't agree with everything he says and have had 'run ins' with him in the past. That said, I recognize fully that his contribution to this forum and others is easily in the top 1% of premium quality trading content. Given that absolutely everything he ever says is prefixed with the cast iron instruction that every trader must devise, test and paper trade their methodology until they're satisfied it's profitable, it's then very, very hard to see how anyone can lose money taking their lead from him.

if you think this is not relative..then you are 100% wrong..and db can of course defend himself..which he should do..as he is continually trying to sell info to people here..it is obvious in nearly every post he makes

I'm not aware of him trying to sell anything to T2W members. Yes, of course I know abut his book, I bought the first edition some years ago. However, he rarely mentions it and, when he does, it's usually in response to questions about it. Besides which, one must distinguish between vendors selling courses of dubious quality for thousands of $$$s and a (very good) e-book costing a mere $30.00 or so. That said, if you have evidence of him trying to sell anything to anyone, please use the red flag 'Report Post' facility to bring it to the attention of the Mods who will follow it up and take appropriate action.

people need to be very careful to whom they listen to when it comes to risking their hard earned money..if my memory serves me correct..mr charts had the same issue on this site some years ago..someone who paid him over 1k sterling for "training", lost a good bit of money trading - do you remember that or were you here then?

Members do indeed need to be careful who they listen to when risking their own money. I'm in full agreement about that. However, if they are going to listen to anyone, both dbp and Mr. Charts would be in the 10 ten posters on T2W I'd say are well worth paying attention to. Of course, that's just my personal $0.02p worth - it's not the 'official' T2W view.

Regarding people losing money trading U.S. stocks following training from Mr. Charts - I've heard it all before. And, given that I've paid for tuition from him on two occasions and I've traded U.S. equities, I'm well qualified to say that I'm 100% certain that the problem with those who lose money lies with them and not with Mr. Charts. I include myself in that.

in relation to me being a coach/trainer..well..as every second member ob t2w is one..i said i might as well become one..the only difference with me..is that i will never charge any person money. as i have no need to..i make enough from my trading

Well, that's commendable. If you're not charging money, I suggest you remove the Coach/Trainer icon from your profile, as this is specifically for members who do charge for their services.

hell..even one fellow here stated that " you don't have to trade to show people how to do it"..what do you think of that statement tim..would you give him some of your hard earned money for him to "show you" how to trade

I don't have a particular issue with it, although personally I wouldn't pay for tuition from someone who doesn't - or can't - trade themselves. I haven't kicked a football in over thirty years, but I reckon I could teach someone the off-side rule just as well as Ronaldo.
Tim.

 

[rexlord]

I agree with the overtrading theory. I bet this applies to 80% of the traders that lose their investment. I personally trade on the 9-5 theory. I'll start at 9, find my picks, then make sure that any trades that have been opened (no more than 2) will be closed by 5.

I stick to this and have found success. It also allows you to 'switch off' in the evenings and control the stress that comes with trading.

But if you are profitable, why limit yourself to only 2 trades?
If you are making money on 2 trades per day, why not do 10 trades of the same type per day and multiply your profitability 5X?

And if someone is not profitable, they can do 1 trade per day for a year, or 250 trades in one week - they will still blow through their money. Doesn't really matter if it happens over a long or a short period of time. :cheesy:

 

[NVP]

Look at it this way guys.........if you have a bad system then at least overtrading puts you out of your misery faster......

N

 

[Lúidín]

Hi Lúidín,
I was in two minds whether or not to reply to your comments as, for the most part, it's old ground covered in depth many times in the past. However, perhaps you weren't around then, so for your benefit . . .
A better approach in my view is to offer the other cheek. Besides which, I've read through the thread and, as far as I can see, dbp hasn't even commented on your posts - let alone insulted you.


Of the millions of posts on T2W and elsewhere, there's any amount of utter tosh that newbies can pay attention to if they choose and, in consequence, may end up losing money. If someone, somewhere, claims to have lost money following dbp's advice, that's most likely because they've not followed it correctly. I don't agree with everything he says and have had 'run ins' with him in the past. That said, I recognize fully that his contribution to this forum and others is easily in the top 1% of premium quality trading content. Given that absolutely everything he ever says is prefixed with the cast iron instruction that every trader must devise, test and paper trade their methodology until they're satisfied it's profitable, it's then very, very hard to see how anyone can lose money taking their lead from him.


I'm not aware of him trying to sell anything to T2W members. Yes, of course I know abut his book, I bought the first edition some years ago. However, he rarely mentions it and, when he does, it's usually in response to questions about it. Besides which, one must distinguish between vendors selling courses of dubious quality for thousands of $$$s and a (very good) e-book costing a mere $30.00 or so. That said, if you have evidence of him trying to sell anything to anyone, please use the red flag 'Report Post' facility to bring it to the attention of the Mods who will follow it up and take appropriate action.


Members do indeed need to be careful who they listen to when risking their own money. I'm in full agreement about that. However, if they are going to listen to anyone, both dbp and Mr. Charts would be in the 10 ten posters on T2W I'd say are well worth paying attention to. Of course, that's just my personal $0.02p worth - it's not the 'official' T2W view.

Regarding people losing money trading U.S. stocks following training from Mr. Charts - I've heard it all before. And, given that I've paid for tuition from him on two occasions and I've traded U.S. equities, I'm well qualified to say that I'm 100% certain that the problem with those who lose money lies with them and not with Mr. Charts. I include myself in that.

Well, that's commendable. If you're not charging money, I suggest you remove the Coach/Trainer icon from your profile, as this is specifically for members who do charge for their services.

I don't have a particular issue with it, although personally I wouldn't pay for tuition from someone who doesn't - or can't - trade themselves. I haven't kicked a football in over thirty years, but I reckon I could teach someone the off-side rule just as well as Ronaldo.
Tim.

ok..i have changed my mind..i now charge $1k per hour for my services..should anyone want to be shown how to make money trading..but..be warned..if you lose all of your money when you try it realtime..after 1 year of papertrading..it will not be my fault..as you are not me..and can never be me..no matter how hard you try..as we have different brains in different heads

tim..did you make any money with what mr charts showed you..or is it too hard when you actually try it in realtime?

 

[timsk]

Hi Lúidín,

ok..i have changed my mind..i now charge $1k per hour for my services..should anyone want to be shown how to make money trading..but..be warned..if you lose all of your money when you try it realtime..after 1 year of papertrading..it will not be my fault..as you are not me..and can never be me..no matter how hard you try..as we have different brains in different heads

Seriously, this is absolutely fine and sums up the situation very well. Anyone who pays for coaching / training would do well to to take your comments on board. If I was interested in learning how you trade, I wouldn't be put off by this in the slightest.

tim..did you make any money with what mr charts showed you..or is it too hard when you actually try it in realtime?

Understanding concepts is one thing; putting them into practice is quite another. I had no difficulty with the former, but struggled with the latter. My problem entirely; it had nothing to do with Mr. Charts' teaching ability or methodology, both of which are excellent in my view. I don't wish to blow my own trumpet, but of the skills I have in life, high on the (short) list is an ability to be honest with myself and not to try and blame others for my shortcomings (which are many). Based on my years here on T2W, my distinct impression is that this is quite a rare trait among traders, particularly among those who seek training from others.
Tim.