One Trade a Week

[Pat494]

ITV
Market
TP 73.5
SL 78
short

reason
Have a look at the figures below. Itv produces sub standard programmes so its not surprising.

date............................2010........2009.......2008.......2007
Operating Income or Loss 128,000 161,000 278,000 317,000

Income from Continuing Operations
Total Other Income/Expenses Net - - - -
Earnings Before Interest And Taxes 128,000 161,000 278,000 317,000
Interest Expense (104,000) (114,000) (57,000) (39,000)
Income Before Tax - - - -
Income Tax Expense (69,000) (178,000) 50,000 66,000
Minority Interest (3,000) (2,000) (1,000) (3,000)

Net Income From Continuing Ops 91,000 (2,556,000) 137,000 219,000

Going downhill imho

 

[isatrader]

ITV
Market
TP 73.5
SL 78
short

Thanks Pat, here's your initial targets based on Fridays close of 75.6 for ITV.L:

ATR Targets

Daily ATR(200) = 2.18 (2.88%)
Weekly ATR(52) = 4.91 (6.49%)

-1x ATR: 77.78
1x ATR: 73.42
1.5x ATR: 72.33
2x ATR: 71.24

Good luck

 

[isatrader]

Week 15 Pick - Palladium

Palladium (June Contract)

Sector: Metals

Order Type: Warehoused

Direction: Short

Warehoused Entry: Will manually enter during the week.

Initial Stop loss: 75.6
Initial Target: 55

ATR (200 Day): 1.7 (2.34%)
ATR (52 Week): 4.58 (6.32%)

ATR Targets: - Based on estimate entry point of 72.5
-1x ATR: 74.20
1x ATR: 70.80
1.5x ATR: 69.95
2x ATR: 69.10

Entry Reason
I've been looking at the weekly charts mostly this week and I've become more and more bearish on the general market and I think a medium term top could be in as there were various blow off moves in different areas of the market especially the dollar. So I've been looking for potential shorts this weekend and have been using Weinstein's stage analysis to look for good candidates moving into a stage 4 decline. One that stood out to me was Palladium as since the Japan crisis it has been forming a stage 3 top pattern and not participating in the metals blow off top. This is partly due to the fact that it has stealthily outperformed Silver over the last 2 years with a massive 365% gain, but it doesn't get any attention in the press, and also because Silver is nearly always the last to move in a metals bull run.

This seems like a hugely one sided trade at the moment as since the launch of the US based ETF PALL in January 2010 it has basically gone straight up. So I think there's a good possibility for a big decline in this at least back to the breakout point at 55 IMO. So I'm going to try a ride this one all through a stage 4 decline and for the purposes of this thread capture a good move down this week after a possible initial bounce early in the week.

Attached is my charts

 

[Canto1922]

Interesting choice Isa - I've been holding palladium ETF for a while now and have similar feelings about it & wondering whether to bail out this week. Probably leave it a day or so and see where markets are headed - may be up after all the worries last week.

My choice this week:

CW.
Market
TP 55
SL 46
Long

Potential buyers out there.

 

[isatrader]

Interesting choice Isa - I've been holding palladium ETF for a while now and have similar feelings about it & wondering whether to bail out this week. Probably leave it a day or so and see where markets are headed - may be up after all the worries last week.

My choice this week:

CW.
Market
TP 55
SL 46
Long

Potential buyers out there.

Thanks Canto. I think there's arguments that could be made for both long and short on Palladium at the moment as it had a small bounce at support on Friday. So it could even be a great buying point if Silver and Gold manage a strong bounce this week as it would be pulled up with them. But on my P&F charts it needs to break above 80 again to be back in a bull phase. So it's a difficult decision for you as it could go either way here. Do you use a stop loss?

Anyway back to your pick. Here's the targets for CW.L based on Fridays close of 49.74

ATR Targets

Daily ATR(200) = 2.25 (4.52%)
Weekly ATR(52) = 6.13 (12.32%)

-1x ATR: 47.49
1x ATR: 51.99
1.5x ATR: 53.12
2x ATR: 54.24

Good luck

 

[CityTrader90]

USD/CAD
Short
Enter 0.9664
SL - 0.9720
Target - 0.9370

 

[isatrader]

USD/CAD
Short
Enter 0.9664
SL - 0.9720
Target - 0.9370

Thank you CT, here's the targets for USDCAD

ATR Targets

Daily ATR(200) = 0.0069 (0.71%)
Weekly ATR(52) = 0.0223 (2.31%)

-1x ATR: 0.9733
1x ATR: 0.9595
1.5x ATR: 0.9561
2x ATR: 0.9526

Good luck

 

[isatrader]

Ok, it's time for my usual reminder for anyone that wants to join in this week. Get you pick in by midnight (BST) tonight. Rules of how to submit a pick can be found in the first post or just look back through the last few pages and you'll get the idea.

 

[Canto1922]

Isa, I do use a stop loss on most of my holdings but not on Palladium ETF. Maybe I should..

Seeing rather to much about Greek debt bailout worries in the media for my liking - turbulent week ahead maybe!

 

[isatrader]

Isa, I do use a stop loss on most of my holdings but not on Palladium ETF. Maybe I should..

The problem I've found with commodity ETFs is that they are priced in dollars so it makes a stop loss harder to place as you have to adjust for currency fluctuations. Also the other issue is that because palladium is thinly traded that the market makers can dramatically widen the spread sometimes. On the nickel etf I recently sold it could get as wide as 40% on occasions and if you look back to 2008 the palladium etf did the same. They all seem better recently but I still personally would find it hard to use a stop on those products because of these shady practices.

 

[wigtrade]

Hi guys this week's pick

DLN (Derwent London) - SELL
Warehoused short


Weekly looks to be topping out at 1800 approaching apex of ascending wedge with bearish indicator divergence.

Will look to enter on break below 1745 or retest of 1800 might provide better opportunity

Good luck all:clover:
Wig

 

[isatrader]

Hi guys this week's pick

DLN (Derwent London) - SELL
Warehoused short


Weekly looks to be topping out at 1800 approaching apex of ascending wedge with bearish indicator divergence.

Will look to enter on break below 1745 or retest of 1800 might provide better opportunity

Good luck all:clover:
Wig

Thanks wig, here's the initial targets based on Fridays close of 1768 for DLN.L

ATR Targets

Daily ATR(200) = 33.15 (1.88%)
Weekly ATR(52) = 76.63 (4.33%)

-1x ATR: 1801.15
1x ATR: 1734.85
1.5x ATR: 1718.28
2x ATR: 1701.70

Good luck

 

[isatrader]

Week 15 Trades

Another week is underway. So attached is the spreadsheet summary with everyone's picks and initial targets.

Let me know if anyone needs any changes or if I've made any errors

Cheers

 

[isatrader]

Mike your limit order for silver was filled at 35.28

Trade Details:
Silver (July Contract)
Direction: Long
Entry: 35.28
Stop: 32.9
Target: 38.9

Percentage Risk: 7.23% (-2.33% ATR Adjusted)
Target Gain: 10.26% (3.55% ATR Adjusted)

Risk Ratio: 1.42

Daily ATR(200): 1.0206 (2.89%)
Weekly ATR(52): 2.1881 (6.20%)

ATR Targets
-1x ATR: 34.26
1x ATR: 36.30
1.5x ATR: 36.81
2x ATR: 37.32

Good luck

 

[wigtrade]

DLN Short
ENTER

 

[isatrader]

DLN Short
ENTER

Hi wig, your entry time on the thread was 8.06am, so the closing price on the one minute bar for DLN.L was 1722. Here's the full trade details:

Trade Details:
Derwent London (LSE DLN)
Direction: Short
Entry: 35.28
Stop: TBC
Target: TBC

Daily ATR(200): 33.15 (1.93%)
Weekly ATR(52): 76.63 (4.45%)

ATR Targets
-1x ATR: 1755.15
1x ATR: 1688.85
1.5x ATR: 1672.28
2x ATR: 1655.70

Good luck

 

[isatrader]

Morning Canto, your market order for Cable & Wireless was filled at the open at 49.48

Here's the full trade details:

Trade Details:
Cable & Wireless (LSE:CW.)
Direction: Long
Entry: 49.48
Stop: 46
Target: 55

Percentage Risk: 7.57% (-1.55% ATR Adjusted)
Target Gain: 11.16% (2.45% ATR Adjusted)

Risk Ratio: 1.47

Daily ATR(200): 2.25 (4.55%)
Weekly ATR(52): 6.13 (12.39%)

ATR Targets
-1x ATR: 47.23
1x ATR: 51.73
1.5x ATR: 52.855
2x ATR: 53.98

Good luck

 

[isatrader]

Morning Pat, your market order for ITV was filled at the open price of 75.15

Here's the full trade details:

Trade Details:
ITV (LSE:ITV)
Direction: Short
Entry: 75.15
Stop: 78
Target: 73.5

Percentage Risk: 3.79% (-1.26% ATR Adjusted)
Target Gain: 2.24% (0.77% ATR Adjusted)

Risk Ratio: 0.59

Daily ATR(200): 2.18 (2.90%)
Weekly ATR(52): 4.91 (6.53%)

ATR Targets
-1x ATR: 77.33
1x ATR: 72.97
1.5x ATR: 71.88
2x ATR: 70.79

Good luck

 

[SlipperyC]

enter

 

[isatrader]

enter

Morning Slip. I have your entry time as 10:36am, so the closing price was 7428.54 for the DAX. Here's the full entry details:

Trade Details:
Dax Index (DBI DAX)
Direction: Long
Entry: 7428.54
Stop: 7320
Target: 7600

Percentage Risk: 1.48% (-1.18% ATR Adjusted)
Target Gain: 2.31% (1.87% ATR Adjusted)

Risk Ratio: 1.56

Daily ATR(200): 91.89 (1.24%)
Weekly ATR(52): 240.51 (3.24%)

ATR Targets
-1x ATR: 7336.65
1x ATR: 7520.43
1.5x ATR: 7566.38
2x ATR: 7612.32

Good luck