One Trade a Week

[isatrader]

Hi isa,

Change of tune this week.

I'll see if this run up has anything left in it, so my trade will be;

Limit LONG DAX

Entry; 7260,
Stop; 7140
Target: 7400

Why? So many attempts at the 7200 area and resilience in other markets. Doesn't 'feel' right to me, but going short is getting me nowhere.

Me going long is obviously the black swan event that the global markets are waiting for in order to collapse to zero!! ;-)

Thanks Slip, lets hope not eh! Here's your targets for the DAX:

ATR Targets

Daily ATR(200) = 91.89 (1.27%)
Weekly ATR(52) = 242.90 (3.35%)

-1x ATR: 7168.11
1x ATR: 7351.89
1.5x ATR: 7397.84
2x ATR: 7443.78

Good luck

 

[wigtrade]

Don't do it Slip!!! Trust your instincts! :cheesy:

Right here's my offering for this week:

PFC.L (Petrofac) - SELL

Short 1480
Stop 1560
Target 1300

Although PFC has been riding the wave for 2 years, I'm seeing signs of weakness.
LL LH following first break out of this channel (to the south side no less) sets up an intriguing looking quasimodo pattern perhaps :idea:

I'm waiting for the markets to fall off. I'm not willing it to happen as am long in two positions elsewhere (MKS and TSCO) however this type of setup is the sort which will profit if it does happen.

Good luck all
cheers
Wig

 

[isatrader]

PFC.L (Petrofac) - SELL
Short 1480
Stop 1560
Target 1300

Thanks Wig, here's your targets

ATR Targets

Daily ATR(200) = 36.23 (2.45%)
Weekly ATR(52) = 90.96 (6.15%)

-1x ATR: 1516.23
1x ATR: 1443.77
1.5x ATR: 1425.66
2x ATR: 1407.54

Good luck

 

[isatrader]

Ok, it's time for my usual reminder. Anyone that wants to join in this week, make sure you get your pick in by 12pm BST tonight as that's when this weeks game begins.

 

[isatrader]

Week 12 Trades and Spreadsheet

I've got a heavy work week this week, so I'm posting the trades list a little early tonight. Any late entries can be added on in the morning.

It's just the regulars this week and I believe this is the first week we haven't had a forex trade. We do however have 3 stock picks, 1 index and 1 commodity this week. Below is this weeks picks:

Week 12 Picks

isatrader
Heritage Oil (LSE:HOIL)
Direction: Long
Warehoused order: Manual entry during the week, will reassess if it breaks below 255 support
Stop: 254.4 (provisional)
Target: 305.7 (provisional)

Pat494
Talk Talk (LSE:TALK)
Direction: Short
Market order: Will be filled at the open on Monday
Stop: 150
Target: 130

TradeTheEasyWay
Crude Oil (CL June Contract)
Direction: Long
Limit order: 109.6
Stop: 106.3
Target: 114.9

SlipperyC
DAX Index (DBI DAX)
Direction: Long
Limit order: 7260
Stop: 7140
Target: 7400

wigtrade
Petrofac (LSEFC)
Direction: Short
Limit order: 1480
Stop: 1560
Target: 1300

Good luck everyone, and as always let me know if you need any changes to stops or targets.

Below is the trades spreadsheet with your initial targets.

 

[SlipperyC]

Enter.

decided this is a better entry point. Stop to 7040 please.

 

[SlipperyC]

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

It is truly, almost laughable - my DAX timing right now should be some sort of inverse indicator!!

I go long ... and the DAX drops about 70 pts from the open!!

Thank feck I still had a short open from last week in my s/b account (small, £1/pt, 7185, guaranteed stop over the weekend).

 

[isatrader]

enter

 

[isatrader]

Enter.

decided this is a better entry point. Stop to 7040 please.

Hi Slip, your entry time was 7.38am so I have an entry price of 7171.3 for the DAX. Here's your trade details:

Trade Details:
DAX Index (DBI DAX)
Direction: Long
Entry: 7171.3
Stop: 7040
Target: 7400

Percentage Risk: 1.87% (-1.43% ATR Adjusted)
Target Gain: 3.19% (2.49% ATR Adjusted)

Risk Ratio: 1.71

Daily ATR(200): 91.89 (1.28%)
Weekly ATR(52): 242.90 (3.39%)

ATR Targets
-1x ATR: 7079.41
1x ATR: 7263.19
1.5x ATR: 7309.14
2x ATR: 7355.08

Good Luck

 

[isatrader]

enter

My entry time was 8.57am, so my entry price for HOIL.L was 261.9

Trade Details:
Heritage Oil (LSE:HOIL)
Direction: Long
Entry: 261.9
Stop: 249.9
Target: 297.6

Percentage Risk: 4.80% (-0.84% ATR Adjusted)
Target Gain: 13.63% (2.50% ATR Adjusted)

Risk Ratio: 2.84

Daily ATR(200): 14.28 (5.45%)
Weekly ATR(52): 37.99 (14.51%)

ATR Targets
-1x ATR: 247.62
1x ATR: 276.18
1.5x ATR: 283.32
2x ATR: 290.46

 

[isatrader]

Pat494 your market order for Talktalk was filled at the open price of 141.7. Here are the trade details:

Trade Details:
Talk Talk (LSE:TALK)
Direction: Short
Entry: 141.7
Stop: 150
Target: 130

Percentage Risk: 5.86% (-2.03% ATR Adjusted)
Target Gain: 9.00% (3.30% ATR Adjusted)

Risk Ratio: 1.54

Daily ATR(200): 3.86 (2.72%)
Weekly ATR(52): 9.33 (6.58%)

ATR Targets
-1x ATR: 145.56
1x ATR: 137.84
1.5x ATR: 135.91
2x ATR: 133.98

Good Luck

 

[isatrader]

Mike it looks like your limit order was filled overnight from the CME June oil chart. So here are your full trade details:

Trade Details:
Crude Oil (CL June Contract)
Direction: Long
Entry: 109.6
Stop: 106.3
Target: 114.9

Percentage Risk: 3.10% (-1.43% ATR Adjusted)
Target Gain: 4.84% (2.29% ATR Adjusted)

Risk Ratio: 1.56

Daily ATR(200): 2.312 (2.11%)
Weekly ATR(52): 5.3742 (4.90%)

ATR Targets
-1x ATR: 107.29
1x ATR: 111.91
1.5x ATR: 113.07
2x ATR: 114.22

Good luck

 

[SlipperyC]

Incidentally isa, I get an entry price of around 7168 at 7.38am.

Were you looking at the forum time or real time??

 

[dmt257]

Got sidetracked this weekend so forgot to get my trade in. Until next week then

 

[isatrader]

Incidentally isa, I get an entry price of around 7168 at 7.38am.

Were you looking at the forum time or real time??

Apologies Slip, I just realised I used the June futures charts instead of the rolling. The price on the rolling at 7.38am was 7171.3

Are you happy to use that one as is close to yours and I'll use the same for the exit?

Here's a screen shot

 

[isatrader]

Got sidetracked this weekend so forgot to get my trade in. Until next week then

No worries dmt, is easy to forget.

 

[SlipperyC]

Yep, that price is fine.

Cheers isa.

 

[isatrader]

I was a little too eager to get in this morning as I need to focus on my work today so I didn't follow my entry rules :whistling. If I had this would have been my entry point here. See attached 30 minute chart.

I think the other problem is that I raised my percentage risk today in my account from 0.5% per trade to 2% per trade for these one trade a week picks. But I think I need to start getting used to a larger monetary position size if I'm ever going to do this seriously. I'm trying my best to ignore the money side of it and just trade the ATR percentages like normal. But it's four times my normal position size so I'm definitely a little bit more cautious and I know I shouldn't be, but I think once I trade at this size for a little while and get comfortable with it then I'll look to push it up again by investing more capital in the account as I don't want the position size to get any larger than 2% of the account and ideally want to bring the percentage lower again.

 

[SlipperyC]

a.l.m.o.s.t. l.a.u.g.h.a.b.l.e.

 

[isatrader]

a.l.m.o.s.t. l.a.u.g.h.a.b.l.e.

Hi Slip, I see you've noticed that the S&P downgrade on the US outlook from stable to negative has stopped you out of the DAX. Not really much you could do about that :-0

Here's your closing details:

Closing Trade

DAX Index (DBI DAX)
Direction: Long
Entry: 7171.3
Exit: 7040

Percentage Loss: -1.83%
ATR Adjusted Percentage Gain: -1.43%

Trade Grade: F