oil trading style

[Chartsky]

guys take it from me unless you have DEEP pockets and are willing to LOSE all your money stay clear from Oil futures. it swings 600 points in a day, at £1pp thats £600 A DAY. I have personally lost £10k in 3 months trying all sorts of strategies to beat it. I couldn't. its too volatile. you could be 200 pips in profit to see it swing to a 200 point loss in minutes. then you panic and think it will come back, next day you are 500 pips in the red. a fast way to lose money and blow your account.

the margin requirements are also horrendous. £450 for Nymex at £1pp. a couple of trades and you are taling SERIOUS exposure. you could lose your house chasing this

advfntrader, sorry you lost 10k in 3 mos. but it can be done. I daytrade CL every day on NYMEX and, on average, have only 1 losing day in every 10. On those days, Hedge Funds are over-active, traders are panicking, and price is whipping hysterically. Otherwise, the way I see it, moves are almost telegraphed and trends pay off well. It is fast-moving and NOT for newbies though.

 

[anandsancheti]

i have a simple MA system and i dont trade intraday, more of a positional trader, my system makes more money on currency but the beta of crude makes my system good enough to make decent money.

 

[advfntrader]

I'd be interested to hear more about your system

 

[Rossini]

Oil is certainly going to rise higher and higher, take long positions on crude oil futures is the trading strategy.

1) Growth in Emerging Economies --> Rising Oil Consumption --> Higher oil price

2) OPEC --> Government depend on oil income --> Cartel restricts supply --> Higher Oil price

3) Geopolitical Issues --> Cause disruption / thread of oil production --> Lower global spare capacity --> Higher Oil price

4) Peak Oil Theory --> Declining Oil production --> Less Supply --> Higher oil price

I believe oil price is going maintain its uptrend in the mid-term. I'm predicting oil price to reach $250 in 2 years' time.

I can think of arguments for oil going up from here (about 116) and down from here. However I do think it will go down thats in the short term. In the medium term it is defo going up 250 possibly? In the long term it is going down and down further- in 20 years it wont be needed.

Having said all that if you compare oil price with $ strenth, it is apparent that it is roughly the same as when it was $70.

 

[anandsancheti]

well the thing is arguments are arguments either in favor or against a move, but the reality is arguments dont change prices rather prices change arguments.

from the world going defunct in OIL due to demand, price change is making people talk about demand destruction.

SO i wont get into arguments, it doesnt matter who you are all that makes the vital difference is PRICE PRICE & PRICE.

Dollar strength is to continue as pound is looking weak, after a break down below 1.85. the target for that is 1.76. thus as dollar continues to strengthen it only leads to more weakening of crude.
i expect crude to take support @$105.

 

[tar]

I think Crude Oil will selloff maybe 30% after a big rally

It sold off more than 30%

 

[anandsancheti]

sure it did and also fall below 100 all the way to 90, and this move back up is only going to lead to more liquidation, longer term i think we can see 65 on crude!!!!!! easily

 

[baboon1978]

@advfntrader:

Hi everyone. This is my first post (no more lurking for me!).

I switched from FX (apart from swing trading on dailies) to Futures.

IMHO, you can't trade succesfully on Futures using conventional TFs. I trade crude oil on a 750-945 RANGE BAR chart. With this you can see all the moves of the market, it moves extremely smoothly, and the countertrends are often good for 15-35 ticks. Not only that but the Elliot Waves are super easy to count.

I spent good money on good indicators, and I spend a couple of hundred bucks each month on MultiCharts and IQFeed Data. But man, it gives you the edge in your trading...

I'm surprised I don't read more about Range Bars on this site, if you are measuring your charts on TIME, I'm not surprised your taking a beating!

By all means check the trend direction on a 15/30m chart when you logon to your terminal but that is for reference only, with good indicators and correct range bar settings to smooth the price action, it's pretty difficult not to make a killing every day.

 

[Chartsky]

Maybe I am not understanding you, or maybe you mis-wrote . . . but a 750-945 Range bar in Crude Oil would be bars $750.00 ($7.50) to $945.00 ($9.45) big and you won't have enough of them to even make a 10-bar chart with unless it goes back 6-months to a year.

What am I missing?

I agree smaller sized bars were very tradable 2 Summers ago but stopped when the Hedge Funds flooded the market starting January 2008. Normal volatility now takes-out reasonable stops more than 50% of the time.

Chartsky

@advfntrader:

Hi everyone. This is my first post (no more lurking for me!).

I switched from FX (apart from swing trading on dailies) to Futures.

IMHO, you can't trade succesfully on Futures using conventional TFs. I trade crude oil on a 750-945 RANGE BAR chart. With this you can see all the moves of the market, it moves extremely smoothly, and the countertrends are often good for 15-35 ticks. Not only that but the Elliot Waves are super easy to count.

I spent good money on good indicators, and I spend a couple of hundred bucks each month on MultiCharts and IQFeed Data. But man, it gives you the edge in your trading...

I'm surprised I don't read more about Range Bars on this site, if you are measuring your charts on TIME, I'm not surprised your taking a beating!

By all means check the trend direction on a 15/30m chart when you logon to your terminal but that is for reference only, with good indicators and correct range bar settings to smooth the price action, it's pretty difficult not to make a killing every day.