Dips,
Maybe for longer-term trading you should be looking at the fundamentals - mainly political. I'm sure you must be pretty well clued up on this given your location.
Some time ago, an OPEC member (possibly Saudi) rejected a call from the US to increase production and ease demand. The member noted that perhaps the US's increasing crude inventory could be a contibutory factor to any shortage (and the last figures showed a further increase).
Grant.
