No brainer trade journal

MajorDutch said:
not in my book, Gold is screaming for a breakout high here if price confirms above $1767. there is clear open space above to $1800 & $1900.
Click to expand...

over 1770 now.
I made 50 pips in the meantime (bit risky, I know, but I play very low stakes).
 
ordinaryguy76 said:
over 1770 now.
I made 50 pips in the meantime (bit risky, I know, but I play very low stakes).
Click to expand...

well done. is it just me or is the daily gold chart screaming for a move up. the fundamentals are just so good. when the next load of big QE is announced Gold could go to the moon.:LOL:
 
I never said I thought it was going down, just that I thought that the trade using that system was gone (out at B/E) and wondered why you'd veered off the system to try and get back in it late. I believe it went below original entry price a couple times and once showing around a 100 point loss let alone trying to get in late at a higher price. Not my cup of tea and all my own personal opinion of course. It's irrelevant where price goes when you're not in a trade.

I agree it would have been nice to still be in it though(y)
 
sell stop order 1.4368 SL 1.4475 1st lot TP 1.4290 2nd lot move stop b/e discretionary TP.

See daily/weekly chart GBPCHF

The pin form isn't perfect, nose could be longer and body could be further down but some epic confluence:

1. Right off 1.45 round number
2. 365 sma
3. previous weekly support becomes resistance.
4. previous daily resistance forming double top.
5. huge MacD divergence

other risks - possible swiss bank intervention.

Gunna play this one slightly differently in that I am going to place SL at left eye and trade 2 lots. 1st lot will take full profit at first trouble area (1.4290). 2nd lot will move stop to b/e at first trouble area and will look for runner with discretionary exit.

good night vienna.
 

Attachments

  • gbpchf daily.gif
    gbpchf daily.gif
    20.8 KB · Views: 139
  • gbpchf weekly.gif
    gbpchf weekly.gif
    18.2 KB · Views: 141
MajorDutch said:
yeah that's my take on it Mazdaq I concur. James16 does say he puts b.e's in the winning column. I have heard other traders say this is 8ollox as some risk is taken at outset even if closed b/e. My take on it is how you class your b/e's has to fit with the context of your trading plan. So if you trading plan aims for occasional very large winners and occasional small losers with a bunch of break evens then personally I count b/e' s as winners as they are per plan. I have found to my cost in the past that trading is often about what you don't lose as much as about what you win. If you cant accept b/e's and small losers accounts can get damaged.
Click to expand...

It's the wrong thing to do. Are you trading technically or not? Decide. Break even is meaningless unless it's a technical point. It's comforting sure, but it's exactly the wrong thing to do.

Bottom of the pin on a daily bar is a long way, but the options for stop placement aren't there or breakeven. Why not take partial profit, and then move your stop to a technical point (below a swing low on a relevant timeframe) so that you would end up breakeven or thereabouts if its hit. It's madness to move it to breakeven (I've committed this madness too many times to not know that!).
 
Shakone said:
It's the wrong thing to do. Are you trading technically or not? Decide. Break even is meaningless unless it's a technical point. It's comforting sure, but it's exactly the wrong thing to do.

Bottom of the pin on a daily bar is a long way, but the options for stop placement aren't there or breakeven. Why not take partial profit, and then move your stop to a technical point (below a swing low on a relevant timeframe) so that you would end up breakeven or thereabouts if its hit. It's madness to move it to breakeven (I've committed this madness too many times to not know that!).
Click to expand...

yes I am a technical trader however I will use any fundamentals to add in extra confluence. as you can see with this latest GBPCHF trade I am trading 2 lots. 1st will take full profit at first trouble area, second will move stop to break even and see if we can get a runner. I figured this is how I will trade for the moment and keep an eye on the stats as I go along. So I think I have already adopted what you are suggesting. When I move stops to b/e I normally move them to +1 pip so if price comes back (which is often) I get +1 pip +/- slippage.

:eek:
 
MajorDutch said:
yes I am a technical trader however I will use any fundamentals to add in extra confluence. as you can see with this latest GBPCHF trade I am trading 2 lots. 1st will take full profit at first trouble area, second will move stop to break even and see if we can get a runner. I figured this is how I will trade for the moment and keep an eye on the stats as I go along. So I think I have already adopted what you are suggesting. When I move stops to b/e I normally move them to +1 pip so if price comes back (which is often) I get +1 pip +/- slippage.

:eek:
Click to expand...

Not sure if you understood Shakone's point (maybe you have, but can't hurt). What he's saying is that putting your stop at b/e BECAUSE it's the b/e point, is a bad idea, UNLESS it ALSO just happens to be a level.

You've adoped half with partial profits, but what he meant (I think), is that if you take half off at 1:1, you now have the "free trade" (lmao), that certain people like to badger on about (aka worst case your total profit for the trade is 0), and you still get your stop in a sensible place (where it was to start with), or move your stop to another technical point, but your entry is most likely not a good place for it.
 
Hotch said:
Not sure if you understood Shakone's point (maybe you have, but can't hurt). What he's saying is that putting your stop at b/e BECAUSE it's the b/e point, is a bad idea, UNLESS it ALSO just happens to be a level.

You've adoped half with partial profits, but what he meant (I think), is that if you take half off at 1:1, you now have the "free trade" (lmao), that certain people like to badger on about (aka worst case your total profit for the trade is 0), and you still get your stop in a sensible place (where it was to start with), or move your stop to another technical point, but your entry is most likely not a good place for it.
Click to expand...

thanks for the input, yes I agree with you placing a tactical stop has got to be better than placing a stop at b/e, after all what is special about the entry point to make it a good stop choice. I get ya. how do you trade hotch? have you found a way to profitability yet? I am going ok on the Daily's / H4's and working hard on the lower t/f's to get to profitability with my scalping. At the moment I am trading chump change on the Daily's/H4s and demo scalping cable for a couple of hours on the London open (I have lost money scalping hence staying on demo until I crack it).
 
Last edited:
I'm mainly a systems guy, I'll trade discretionary (m15 +, S/R, buy dips, sell rallies, nothing special), but only for entertainment really. Generally I go through:

First principles -> Hypothesis -> Back testing -> Forward testing -> Live

I have wondered about posting some thoughts on mechanical trading, but I fear that there is little interest when I'm not willing to divulge decent edges.

I would suggest sticking to the higher time frames, not because they're more profitable, but that it's more profitable for the effort required. You seem to be approaching it from the direction of successful traders so can't knock it really.

Lastly, think about things, don't blindly accept opinion, many people will pass their opinions off as facts, it never hurts to double check.
 
Hotch said:
I'm mainly a systems guy, I'll trade discretionary (m15 +, S/R, buy dips, sell rallies, nothing special), but only for entertainment really. Generally I go through:

First principles -> Hypothesis -> Back testing -> Forward testing -> Live

I have wondered about posting some thoughts on mechanical trading, but I fear that there is little interest when I'm not willing to divulge decent edges.

I would suggest sticking to the higher time frames, not because they're more profitable, but that it's more profitable for the effort required. You seem to be approaching it from the direction of successful traders so can't knock it really.

Lastly, think about things, don't blindly accept opinion, many people will pass their opinions off as facts, it never hurts to double check.
Click to expand...

sounds good dude. I get you on the blindly accepting opinion even if you trust the person telling you something i pays to think it through and make sure you 'get it'. I wish you continued success.
 
MajorDutch said:
Hey. if you are talking about the daily bar on GBPAUD then it is an easy pass for me. The bar is very neutral i.e. the body is in near the middle of the bar. not high prob at all imo.
Click to expand...

Still no high prob ? Getting closer to my entry point for sell.
 
ordinaryguy76 said:
Still no high prob ? Getting closer to my entry point for sell.
Click to expand...

Hi Ordguy

no still not for me. I am not saying the trade wont work out. Essentially what you have here is an iffy neutral bar, if it works it will feed your confirmation bias and damage you, if it doesn't work you will kick yourself as you 'broker your rules' I have been through this loop so many times. I hope you are not trading real money by the way, if you must trade real money at least go for micro lots. if that bar does break (which it probably will) look where price is going to go, right onto that previous support area. be careful out there.... no need to lose a cent while you are learning.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

MajorDutch
no brainer trade?
Replies
5
Views
3K
Yuppie13
Y
stockerr
Is buying a company which will be acquired by another company a no brainer?
Replies
10
Views
2K
Resolve
Resolve
MajorDutch
Is this a no brainer trade?
2 3
Replies
58
Views
10K
MajorDutch
MajorDutch
neil
No Brainer Trading ?
Replies
5
Views
2K
neil
neil
FXSCALPER2
are binaries a con?
Replies
11
Views
4K
zagreb
Z
Top