No brainer trade journal

[MajorDutch]

Hi

Following the success of my last no brainer trade. I am now on the look out for the next one. I will begin the search on Monday and post up when there is some action, could be days even weeks. The trades are likely to be in the vain of James16. daily pin bar entry fine tuned for a minimum of 3:1 RR. I might find something cheeky on the H4. This trading method requires large amounts of patience and waiting for the correct opportunity. Once the opportunity presents itself entries are normally taken off a retrace on the 5 minute chart. This is where a lot of waiting can occur, waiting for the break then retrace.

here is the link to my 1st no brainer tarde.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/general-trading-chat/136714-no-brainer-trade.html

have a great weekend

 

[brewski1984]

Will you be taking other trades in between or just waiting for the "no-brainers"?

 

[MajorDutch]

Will you be taking other trades in between or just waiting for the "no-brainers"?

yeah I will be. I am taking 3 trades per day maximum. but I will only be posting up the A++ no brainer trades for fear of public ridicule! I will take some A- and B's on my own account though. All the trades I take will be on 4H bars or above, I have tried long and hard to trade on small t/f's for 3 years but it just wasn't working out for me. The only success I have had is on the longer t/f's. I hope someday to be able to make it down to the H1 and 15m bars.

by the way I am defining a no brainer trade as a set up which would c. 90% hit 1st target with a minimum of 1:1 RR. I normally gun for higher RR but this involves a large number of break evens and a few small losers with a few big winners so I will try and post up some 1:1R trades first them some fine tuned trades where the R:R can be very high but there will be a lot of scratches so it's not great reading

 

[new_trader]

yeah I will be. I am taking 3 trades per day maximum. but I will only be posting up the A++ no brainer trades for fear of public ridicule! I will take some A- and B's on my own account though. All the trades I take will be on 4H bars or above, I have tried long and hard to trade on small t/f's for 3 years but it just wasn't working out for me. The only success I have had is on the longer t/f's. I hope someday to be able to make it down to the H1 and 15m bars.

by the way I am defining a no brainer trade as a set up which would c. 90% hit 1st target with a minimum of 1:1 RR. I normally gun for higher RR but this involves a large number of break evens and a few small losers with a few big winners so I will try and post up some 1:1R trades first them some fine tuned trades where the R:R can be very high but there will be a lot of scratches so it's not great reading

It took me many years and cost me lots of money to learn that I should only take the A++ no brainer trades. There is nothing to be gained by risking your money on opportunities that are of lower quality. You probably feel the need to make some trades in order to justify the hours you sit at your trading desk. But IMO you should save the money you would have risked on the lower quality opportunities and spend it on the A++ ones. You will be richer and happier. The idea is to make money, it is not to find a 'system' that keeps you busy.

 

[brewski1984]

The above post is basically where I was heading next.

 

[MajorDutch]

ok tarders I get what you are saying. In the last month I only managed to find 2 A++ trades, so they are quite rare for me to find. Maybe they will become more abundant as I drop time frames.

why am I taking A-, B trades? well these are not bad trades they might just be lacking the extra piece of confluence. The passage of time may prove you correct however for the moment I like to think of things as a casino. If you are the owner of a casino you get your punters in, they play, roulette, craps, blackjack & fruit machines. You have the edge on all these games. If I set the fruit machines to 82% pay out then if a punter comes in and drops £1000 I am loving it. I know my edge is best here, craps next best, roulette next best then blackjack the smallest edge. All the edges are good but there is a limit to the amount of cash I get punters to drop on the fruit machines but if a punter wants to play high stakes roulette @ 5% house edge then he can play all day as far as I am concerned.

 

[Doomberg]

Sounds good, i'll keep an eye out for it - i don't have time to do my normal day trading at the moment, will these be longer term trades? It's something i'm trying to improve on at the moment while i can't day trade, how long will you typically hold a position for?

 

[MajorDutch]

Sounds good, i'll keep an eye out for it - i don't have time to do my normal day trading at the moment, will these be longer term trades? It's something i'm trying to improve on at the moment while i can't day trade, how long will you typically hold a position for?

will probably hold for between 4 hours and 1 week. you got me worried now dont want to be responsible for people winning / losing money.

 

[brewski1984]

ok tarders I get what you are saying. In the last month I only managed to find 2 A++ trades, so they are quite rare for me to find. Maybe they will become more abundant as I drop time frames.

why am I taking A-, B trades? well these are not bad trades they might just be lacking the extra piece of confluence. The passage of time may prove you correct however for the moment I like to think of things as a casino. If you are the owner of a casino you get your punters in, they play, roulette, craps, blackjack & fruit machines. You have the edge on all these games. If I set the fruit machines to 82% pay out then if a punter comes in and drops £1000 I am loving it. I know my edge is best here, craps next best, roulette next best then blackjack the smallest edge. All the edges are good but there is a limit to the amount of cash I get punters to drop on the fruit machines but if a punter wants to play high stakes roulette @ 5% house edge then he can play all day as far as I am concerned.

I understand what you're trying to say in that you want to exploit an edge as much as possible even if it's a smaller edge at times but seriously, read new_trader's post again. I never had a single winning month until I stopped taking the lower quality trades and 2 A++ no brainer trades a month could make you a rich man at the end of a year.

 

[MajorDutch]

no A++ trade on my radar, nothing I like.

New Trader/Brewski - Thanks for your advice on only taking A++ trades you have caused me to think about the subject a lot. As you can see I am capable of making convincing arguments to counter but you got me thinking. I also found some good advice on the James16 thread. I now know I should only be trading A++ set ups anything else is just futile.

If I am trading daily bars the next t/f down is 4H. For starters 4H bars appear different on different price feeds, so do daily bars for that matter. Daily bars tend to differ only slightly but 4H bars can vary widely, one feed can show a perfect pin bar another nothing. Some good points were made on the James16 thread.

1. Give someone a $500 account to trade 5 min bars and they will likely blow the account. If you give the same person a $100,000 account to trade 5 min bars the chances of success are higher. - I agree with this, if you know you could lose $2000 on one trade you are going to make sure you don't overtrade that you only take A++ set ups. To do otherwise would be reckless.
2. trading the daily's gives you more time to make an informed trade, reduces stress and gives you time to build confidence. The bars are more reliable as they contain more information.

One disadvantage of trading daily bars is that on the majority of feeds they close @11pm London time so it does mean analysis needs to be done around this time of day. The markets are normally quiet then so there is no need to rush the analysis of the daily bar closes. A lot of analysis can be done prior to the close, the actual look of the bar is only one factor in taking a trade most of the other analysis can be done throughout the day.

 

[MajorDutch]

heads up looking at a potential long on CHFTRY (swiss turkish lira) 10 pip spread on smart live markets or whatever they are called now.

 

[MajorDutch]

here is the daily chart, daily bar closes in 15 minutes on my feed. I will only take this trade if price breaks the top of the daily bar on the next bar, just the way I tarde.

The bar here is a double bar low higher close - yet to be confirmed by the actual close. The confluence here is:

* 4th touch of the support below solid Support
* off the 150 ema
* off the 2.0000 big round number

The last 2 daily bars actually form a 2 day pin bar.

CHFTRY is an exotic pair, IG for example dont quote it, I keep my smart live markets account open as they have a great range of exotic pairs and as long as the spread is 10 pips or less I am fine with it given that I am normally shooting for 100s.

 

[MajorDutch]

buy stop order to open @ 2.0417 SL 1.9900 TP 2.0800

first minor trouble area is 2.0566 so I will be moving my SL to break even when price hits 2.0550, again just the way I trade, break evens for me go in the win column as when you hit a runner you clean up.

imo this is a very high probability trade - if it goes wrong you wont see me again lol :clap:

 

[MajorDutch]

trade hasn't triggered. will keep order open until 5pm.

 

[MajorDutch]

order deleted. aint going anywhere into the weekend now. by my own rules if the trade doesn't trigger on the next bar I don't trade it so this trade is now off the table. no trades for me this week - needed the patience of saint. An A++ trade is right around the corner.

 

[ordinaryguy76]

hiya, looking forward to more trades !
Need to learn somewhere and this forum is not so "lively" as expected.
By the way, shouldn't your "no brainer trade journal" be in trade journals, not general chat ?

 

[MajorDutch]

hiya, looking forward to more trades !
Need to learn somewhere and this forum is not so "lively" as expected.
By the way, shouldn't your "no brainer trade journal" be in trade journals, not general chat ?

I would recommend that you go to the James 16 website (google it), go the the FREE guest material and utilise all of the free webinars.

 

[MajorDutch]

looking at a potential long off the 4H pin bar on AUDCAD, 4H bars look different depending on feed.

 

[MajorDutch]

would need a bullish close on the bar to take it. See pic attached.

confluence

off 1.05 round number
previous weekly resistance becomes support first time back to 1.05
ascending H4 trend line

first trouble area (orange dotted line) is close so I would be looking to move stop to break even around 1.0568. It's a long way off but a weekly breakout could lead to price breaking out to the monthly highs of 1.1.

 

[MajorDutch]

buy stop order entered @ 1.0550 SL 1.0495 (55 pips) target set to 1.0990 (target +440 pips) will be moving SL to break even as soon as 20 pips up.