Wed was good day ... but mostly because of the the downdraft in Tokyo... when it falls it falls none of this p****** about!
Last week, I reckoned the N225 would give us a 1000pt range for Jan and still do ...so far less than 600.
Which probably means new highs or new swing lows - teehee.
We've had 3 down days in this counter trend ....... and thanks to volatility we have been able to make money shorting either in US session or just prior to the market open as prices lose their nerve. It's been a good game but is it about to change ?
Sadly, can't answer that one .... but I can say that I still prefer the downside ...... which really means I want the market to rise nearer the 17379 swing highs (I've abandoned the 17600 for now) or a failed rally early in tokyo sesh which tests the downside....sub 16900 ideally.
What would I prefer ? Ideally a trend day up into the close so I can get some sleep - I'm absolutely whacked but by staying awake I've managed to get 07 off to a flyer... and I'm well ahead of my target.
What's the scope for Thursday.. ?
At a GUESS
Max Bull - test f 17379 highs which would make for a short before the end of the week - unlikely.
Likely Bull - test of the Wed highs around 17200 or slightly less....
Max Bear - 16500/50 - optimistic , assuming no "really bad" news coming out of left field
Lilkely Bear - test of the 16750 swing lows of late 06
I 'm hoping for a decent bounce ..... so this japanese-bear can take a break .... but I fear another feeble bounce which fizzles - meaning I may be tempted to stay awake again.
It's not about being greedy (imo) its just that Winning can become addictive...
Go on lads/lasses PLEASE push the Nikkei up a few hundred on thursday ..just for old time's sake!