Friday we went 1-1 in the nba for -.03 units. The cleveland under was an easy win but we couldnt overcome a 69 point first quarter in the washington game.
Today....2 nba plays, 1 previously posted ncaafb play and tomorrows nfl play.
Good luck
7:29am
6-Jan-07 5:05pm
6-Jan-07 Basketball
New Orleans Hornets (+8.5) -110
We had 1 play yesterday..and it won for +1 unit. Houston won outright as a bit dog in the nba.
Today a much bigger slate of games but only 1 nba play I can see.
We hit the 350 bet mark with a new high in units won...+50 and we are now at +14.28% return. This is far exceeding my expectations for uncovering inefficiencies in the lines.
Thurs there were no plays. With pinnacle down I am going to post everything at -110. I am expecting this to cost anywhere from 1 to 2 percent in return . Its unfortunate and I am looking into a sports book with similar spreads as pinnacle right now and will know Monday.
Friday was a 1-1 day for -.10 units. Boston really never threatened to cover but seattle won the game outright as a dog in overtime.
Today 2 more plays in the nba. I have looked over the nfl and cannot come up with any solid plays that I can see. So I am passing on the nfl this weekend.
Oh....I have done some research on other books...and it appears that cascade has -105 betting lines. Does anyone have any positive or negative experience with them? They are the only b+ or better rated book that I can see that has -105 lines.
Good Luck
Boston +14(btw...I hate this bet🙂 But..its a play)
Memphis +10
We had no plays on Sunday.....today there is a full slate of nba and nhl games... again I see nothing in the nhl. We started the season with plays every day in the nhl with a nice return on investment...but the lines have become very solid...so expect only 1 or 2 plays a week in the nhl.
In the nba today...3 plays
Milw +5.5 -110
Memphis +9.5 -110
Golden state under 209.5 -110
Monday was a good day. We had 3 plays...the 2 nba sides split...with milw winning outright as a big dog and Memphis unable to cover. Our total goldenstate under was a winner. So a +.90 unit day.
Tues we lost 1 unit...with the islanders losing in the nhl 5-2.
Today nothing in the nhl...but 3 plays in the nba.
Things are settling down now and I suspect we will only have around 50-60 plays a month as opposed to around 100 when ncaafb and nfl is in full swing. But Baseball is just a few months away and things should pick up then.
wedn we had an 0-3 day🙁 For -3.30 units. All games were close until the 4 th quarter but none of the 3 teams could hang on and cover.
Also I had the rather unpleasant experience of someone messaging me on yahoo complaining. He was rather insulting. So....let me say a few things before I post the plays.
1. This method I am using has been applied only over 364 bets. This is not conclusive to the long run profitablility of this method. Its encouraging but in no way a guarantee making money.
2. If you lose money betting these plays if you need to blame someone for your loss the only one you have to blame is yourself. You elected to make these bets.
3. If you dont have a good money management strategy in place you in all probability will lose all your money because of variance.
4. So far the biggest drop has been around 5 units. That is consistent with a method that has a 13 percent return...So this is also encouraging....but..... at some point I would expect a 15 to 20 unit drawdown.....if you are betting an amount that this would cause you a problem....you are betting too much.
and finally 5. There are very few people that are equipped financially and psychologically to handle the ups and downs of gambling on a daily basis. If your not a professional every instinct you have will attempt and probably will sabotage your success. Human nature runs completely contrary to being a successful professional gambler.
If this discourages you from following these plays then I have accomplished what I have intended to accomplish. For those of you that understand all of the above...good luck!
RickJ
Only 1 play today in the nba that I can see...also looks like no plays again in the nfl this weekend. Also I am now on betcascade..so my plays are all -105. If your laying -110 you can expect about 2 percent less return.
Brutal!...after a 10-0 start to the month we are now on a 0-6 run. 2 tough loses last night in the nba both by less then a bucket. Nothing easy about this gambling🙂
Sat we broke our 0-6 run. Our nhl play lost but Boston +11 went into overtime and they covered. And new orleans won outright as a dog. So a +1 unit day.
To keep things in perspective its been a wild month...starting out with a 10-0 run and just finishing a 0-6 run. but for jan we are at 38 bets ...+7.42 units with a 19.53%return!
Today 1 play in the nba and 1 play in the nfl.
nba
Miami +6 -105
nfl
New england +3.5 -110
As to the new england line ... all but one offshore book that i can see has -3 and odds from -120 to -135. So if you want New England +3.5 you have to buy the hook....I suspect you will have to lay around -120. Or you can take +3 and get anywhere from +105 to +115. Here in vegas most books have -3.5 -110. In any event If you cant find +3.5 at a reasonable price I would wait until game time to play since the money is coming in on indy.
Sunday we tied the nba game and lost by a half on new england. Both were tough games. miami was at the line twice in the last min and only made 2 of 4 free throws despite their best free throw shooter was at the line...95% and had hit 22 in a row! Then with about 2 seconds left down by 3....Miami fouled giving the other team a 3 pt play for a tie. New England...was ahead 21 -3 at the half....ahead the whole game except the last minute. Oh well another tough day..and -1.10 units.
Tues we were 0-2 for a -2.10 unit day. we lost the total by a half point..and seattle by 2.
This is clearly the biggest drawdown since I started this method. If you are exercising good
money management you should be fine. If not....this should be a lesson. No matter what methodology you are going to have drawdowns. We are only at 7 to 8 unit drawdown now...and I suspect somewhere along the line we will get at least a 15 unit drawdown...whether this is it only time will tell.
Also.....the only other concern I have is the nba sides. We are only +3.57 units on 112 plays....that is only an 3.19 percent return...I would suggest lowering your unit bet until we get back over a 5 to 7 percent return in the nba sides...also I am going to tighten a bit my parameters on nba sides.
So...today....looks like only 1 clear play in the nba this morning...
Wedn we lost -105 units on the under on golden state. We were never in jeopardy of winning this bet.
Our high point so far has been +51.63 units and that was on jan 16th. So in 9 days we are on a 10.7 unit downswing. This is called variance or perhaps reversion to the mean🙂 The only question is where is the mean on this method..only time will tell.
Again good money management will keep you in the game....if you dont have it you really dont have a chance.
Friday we were +.95 units. We split on the sides.... milw hung in there and covered but phil couldnt despite the line dropping to phil even. Detroit under though was an easy winner.
When you get a big line move as in phil its best to lay off the game. The nba lines are pretty tight this time of the season...so usually cant fade more then .5 to 1 pt off these plays.
Today nothing in the nhl I can see...but 4 plays in the nba.
Lines as of 6.57 am pst
phil +4.5 -105
no +5 -105
Denver under 210 -105
Golden st under 211.5 -105
