Natural Gas a chance?

[pmmkm]

Is anybody out there who has experience in trading the NG Future?

I added this asset some month ago and try to collect links, informations and every source about this.

Actual I´m long in the June and July contract, June is tomorrow the last trading day, the upmove started on the 8th has come down again, unfortunately!

Some recommendations (f.e. Credit Suisse) are about 8$ as fair value.

The COT Report shows a extremely situation, commercials are strongly short, large traders and small traders are long. Could mean that a upmove is following sometimes!

Ok, however the question is "when"!

 

[Hook Shot]

I think your interest in NG is timely. I think the market is going up over coming weeks........ but I'm just waiting until this consolidation sorts itself out........! New lows are okay by me.

 

[pmmkm]

I think your interest in NG is timely. I think the market is going up over coming weeks........ but I'm just waiting until this consolidation sorts itself out........! New lows are okay by me.

at the moment price is climbing to the High from last week, we will see!

the difficult question is the expiry of the futures, if you change to early price will fall stronger after expiration, as last time, if to late it could be in a climbing phase that the spread climbs and you miss most of the movement!

however, of course it mostly depands on the risk management if you win or loose money!

I expect sometimes, may be not in the august contract, a big move with 2 or 3 may be 5 dollar, up to a price about 10 Dollar.

The fundamentals are very positiv, nowhere any risks any hurricans, inventories increase every date, this shouldn´t been forever.

 

[Hook Shot]

Sep Gas flying but we've been fooled before as you say.

Risk management is IMPORTANT but not critical right now as I'm looking for the big wave - when market starts to "worry" about declining inventories and storm risk. We're not there yet but you're right it must come sometime. I'll just wait..........like I did for Sugar and OJ when they were in same situation a long time ago.

I'm still trying to find out what T Boone Pickens thinks of Gas these days - he's one of the big players.

Hookie

 

[pmmkm]

I'm still trying to find out what T Boone Pickens thinks of Gas these days - he's one of the big players.

Hookie

Ok, very interesting, never heard about him, have seen, after google the name, that he is what you sayed, manages a 1 billion dollar energy hedgefund, earned more money with investing in oil and gas in a shorter period then in all years before as in the active business, but how to find out whats his intentions?

 

[Directional]

T Boone Pickens was top of the Trader Monthly trader profit league tables for 2005 earning an estimated $1BN in trading profits for the year from energies. He's the daddy of energy trading currently, though whether through skill or luck - who knows? Getting long far dated crude contracts and holding them is a no brainer if you've got deep enough pockets.

 

[TWI]

There are still historical high storage levels of NG which is reflected in the price action since the last mild US winter.
Nice double bottom on charts probably pulling in some technical buyers, not sure how far this will extend as expect commercial sellers to emerge in increasing numbers scale up but on the flip side there is bound to be a good rally at some point between now and the middle of winter.

 

[Hook Shot]

Life in the Nat Gas thread - yea!

Just heard Boone Pickens on Cnbc - no mention of Gas but he sees $100 oil - for sure within 12m. For comments on Nat Gas www.msnbc.msn.com/id/13230645

Safe to say he's not as upbeat on Nat Gas.

Arbitrageur - skill/luck ? not sure but as an oilman from Texas he's probably very well connected.......

H

 

[TWI]

Nat Gas trades a completely different set of fundamentals to oil. It has been driven down by lack of demand last winter leaving much larger than normal NG stocks throughout this summer. The most interesting development in this market has been the cot report showing a net long position in NG for the first time since it broke down. Technically it looks as though there could be a developing support. I have got long and out a couple of times this month. Currently flat, to my cost.

 

[Hook Shot]

I go with that 100% twalker - I was going to try to ride this wave - triple digit moves are kinda tempting - but I resisted. I felt I was too late for the first thrust..........and previous rallies have evaporated after around a week or 1500pts so I left it. I was feeling like a wimp until it got rejected just short of 1500pts today.

Fingers crossed we can form a higher bottom - slowly.

H

 

[macbonzo]

There has certainly been quite a lot of short - covering on this. I was long on the Aug contract a week last Monday at 6.16. It fell all the way back to 5.52 and has rallied up to 7.30 today. I think that a couple of weeks of low inventories (we had a 7bcf draw today) plus the thought of another hurricane season has put a bottom in this one.

I am currently out the market but looking to get long again around 6.20.

I think the main thing about trading NG is to be very disciplined and closely define your stops.

 

[TWI]

I have been rather frustrated with this NG move, that aggressive pullback on the 25th kep me out and I have missed all but the very beginning of this upleg. Seems following the COT report and just sitting on it would have been best plan..."shoulda, woulda,coulda...didn't". Not at all sure where to go from here but feel that it is better to wait for corrections to get long rather than buy breaks, fundamentals are still not making a good story for any sustained upside yet but I now favour long side and have placed ideas of NG shorts in the bin until we get into the winter.

 

[macbonzo]

I'm out the market at the moment on this one. The phrase "don't try this at home kids springs to mind". Clearly NG can be very volatile but to jump from a low of 5.52 to 8.30ish in a few trading sessions is quite scary. Anyone knew that moving into the hurricane season would likely have meant that NG would bottom out and move up, but as high as this? Personally, I waiting until the storage figures come out on thursday to decide what I want to do with this one.

 

[pmmkm]

What a move, unbelievable, I was long and closed the august contract on 6,75 with profit, but was scared to switch immediately in the september contract, if I hold on my strategy I would have 100´more on my account, f....! But I don´t know If I caught the top.

By the way we touched exactly the 200 Day Line, price stops shortly before!

Does anybody know why this happens like this?

 

[TWI]

Spec driven hype in thin market, we are now in August, it is holiday season, this month has a habit of being difficult.

 

[jimbo57]

the moves have taken one big player out:

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--One of the biggest New York hedge funds trading natural gas futures, MotherRock LP, is shutting down after suffering big losses in the natural gas market in June and July.

New York-based MotherRock, which at its peak in May managed about $430 million in assets, was formed in early 2005 by former New York Mercantile Exchange President J. Robert "Bo" Collins...
MotherRock had "significant losses" in July, though a final tally wasn't yet available, Collins said in the letter. He said the fund would inform investors of the hit it has taken in the next two days.

 

[pmmkm]

Well understandable, they expected GAS price not much lower then 6 USD, and with the low about 5,30 they are bankrupt, cool what a gambling . Think what they would think with seeing the hike the last days, uihhh.

Expect now a pull back about 61,8 Fibonacci Retracement, it is about 6,71, what do you think is the Fibo Tool reliable for the GAS market??

 

[Hook Shot]

Well we are getting the SLOW pullback I wanted and deep too so the long side risk is becoming acceptable - Good call pmmkm. Problem is the spike high looks BULLETPROOF so it will probably take a SHOCK to break it. Still waiting........

H.

 

[just21]

Now Natural gas is on globex they are discussing it over at http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1237861#post1237861

 

[TWI]

It has had some good upside the past few sessions. i am still holding long in X6 which has i think gaine from the short rolls into Z6. Gotta be out today but if the winter turns cold this could get some good upside action.