My trading journal - plus wave counting bits (old Trumps surprise visit to N.Korea)

[cantagril]

Have you considered that posting your analysis in a thread entitled "Trump's surprise visit to Korea" affects the number of readers. Perhaps you could change it to something a tad more apposite; then we'd know what to look out for

 

[ssam]

Have you considered that posting your analysis in a thread entitled "Trump's surprise visit to Korea" affects the number of readers. Perhaps you could change it to something a tad more apposite; then we'd know what to look out for

Ageed - done as suggested, should probably ask someone to move this to the trading journal thread.

Any ideas who to ask?

 

[cantagril]

Ageed - done as suggested, should probably ask someone to move this to the trading journal thread.

Any ideas who to ask?

Sharky or one of the mods

 

[ssam]

Ands its Sunday again folks - the chart analysis commences.

GBPJPY nice structure for a pending developing - a 5 wave motion down on the 4hr in calling for an ABC correction.
You can see I have a pending buy set on the break of the purple trendlines on RSI and chart on the 4hr.
I am expecting this to respect the downward trend line in purple on the chart but feel this would make a nice 2:1R trade.

On the daily, a nice break of the purple trendline and RSI might make a nice little trade.. but only short term, the bearish trend continues here.

 

[malaguti]

And I am returned fresh from the Amalfi coast and full of fresh pizza, caprese panino and gelato.

Not Italian by any chance Sam?

 

[ssam]

And I am returned fresh from the Amalfi coast and full of fresh pizza, caprese panino and gelato.

Not Italian by any chance Sam?

Unfortunately not, just a simple minded Englishman that likes the Italian food and Mediterranean way of life.

 

[ssam]

Got my arse kicked by the trade posted on Sunday - running my stop waayyy to tight. Had I dropped this below the purple support line I would have still been in the trade and secured 50 pips.

We win some we lose some. It all helps toward refining the strategy.

 

[ssam]

Ands its Sunday again folks - the chart analysis commences.

GBPJPY nice structure for a pending developing - a 5 wave motion down on the 4hr in calling for an ABC correction.
You can see I have a pending buy set on the break of the purple trendlines on RSI and chart on the 4hr.
I am expecting this to respect the downward trend line in purple on the chart but feel this would make a nice 2:1R trade.

On the daily, a nice break of the purple trendline and RSI might make a nice little trade.. but only short term, the bearish trend continues here.View attachment 266017View attachment 266018

Here is a chart update... the ABC wave call from the 5 at the bottom came to light... there be magic in these wave counting, Fibo

.


Chart below, nothing changed!

 

[fibo_trader]

Here is a chart update... the ABC wave call from the 5 at the bottom came to light... there be magic in these wave counting, FiboView attachment 266371.


Chart below, nothing changed!

Good Man, astounding progress. You're becoming a very impressive fellow, Sam. Your trendiness are superb, S/R magnificent. your wave counting is sheer poetry. That I had even a wee little bit to do with it makes a happy fella.

Like you said, nothing has really changed in GBPJPY as the trend tends to continue and we just sit on our hands. I'm reluctant to try to be too smart and fck it up by messing with it. So just one look and that's it. Far from the trendline on daily so to hell with it. Yours is a 4H mine is a daily so note the difference if any.

I have not shown a wavecount for this leg as somethin in there is bothering me.

 

[fibo_trader]

Sam, the rally from the bottom on 4H looks corrective (a 3-wave type) which means it will be fully retraced sooner or later

 

[ssam]

Thanks Fibo - you have planted seed for any chance of chart time has been well and truly halted by poor rural WiFi! But still I have TA books to read.

You planted the seed Fibo, I just need to run with it now and spend the time putting it to practice. Which is proving difficult tucked away in a small rural farm in Brittany. I have my note book with me and am blessed with some time to get some forum nuggets down on paper.

I am still far from having a solid trading plan and process to identify sound, higher probability trades but this will come in time. I have also managed to increase my capitalisation this month with some disposable cash at the end of the month, so we are one step closer to being on the path to full capitalisation.

Noted on your comment R.E the corrective wave type and will continue to monitor this move through to completion.

 

[fibo_trader]

Sam, the rally from the bottom on 4H looks corrective (a 3-wave type) which means it will be fully retraced sooner or later

OK, so 3-wave rally up finished. Now its doing a downwave - will it be a 3 or a 5? The divergence being built up on Macd might offer a clue. There could be a C-wave rally aborning that could go for the trendline to kiss it or blast it. If so, its length will be minimum 61.8%. I would not be too shcoked if the rally if any heads to the 200-day. Just my 2 cents. The overall SHORT continues unabated however.

 

[fibo_trader]

OK, so 3-wave rally up finished. Now its doing a downwave - will it be a 3 or a 5? The divergence being built up on Macd might offer a clue. There could be a C-wave rally aborning that could go for the trendline to kiss it or blast it. If so, its length will be minimum 61.8%. I would not be too shcoked if the rally if any heads to the 200-day. Just my 2 cents. The overall SHORT continues unabated however.


View attachment 267021

Slam Dunk! Downwave mentioned is a 3-wave as is obvious, so rally is the C-wave I suspected. Comments on Divergence were top of the line. Obviously with the trendline breakout the SHORT is terminated. FLAT now Note the Fibo level shown in prev. chart is also the one that generated the blast off

 

[fibo_trader]

Coming up busy non-trading stuff so can't monitor doodly, so updates will be rare.

 

[fibo_trader]

you got a twofer ............. here's your other pal, GBPUSD.

Nailed him too. You had questions or doubts about Macd - see the divergence response unit? Stellar. Never underestimate the creme de la creme indicator. Trendline busted too

 

[ssam]

Coming up busy non-trading stuff so can't monitor doodly, so updates will be rare.

Merci Fibo - I have plenty to read on the beast drive back to Blighty which commenced yesterday. Only when the Mrs’s is driving tho...

 

[ssam]

you got a twofer ............. here's your other pal, GBPUSD.

Nailed him too. You had questions or doubts about Macd - see the divergence response unit? Stellar. Never underestimate the creme de la creme indicator. Trendline busted too


View attachment 267197

Happy Sunday Fibo et al.

GBPJPY for the week;

1 hour looks like 5 wave up complete, awaiting ABC down - MACD + RSI convergence, I am expecting price to head to the 130.00 point - based on .618 / 200 EMA / break of previous support, I expect this to be retested.

4 hour - A B C to complete the intermediate wave 1 down to the support of 130.00 would look to get involved here with on completion of wave 1 down to the .618.

Thoughts welcome!
1Hr

4hr

 

[fibo_trader]

Happy Sunday Fibo et al.

GBPJPY for the week;

1 hour looks like 5 wave up complete, awaiting ABC down - MACD + RSI convergence, I am expecting price to head to the 130.00 point - based on .618 / 200 EMA / break of previous support, I expect this to be retested.

4 hour - A B C to complete the intermediate wave 1 down to the support of 130.00 would look to get involved here with on completion of wave 1 down to the .618.

Thoughts welcome!
1Hr
View attachment 267276



4hr
View attachment 267275

El magnifico Domingo para El Duke de London

Will have a look later this evening, so hang in there.

 

[ssam]

El magnifico Domingo para El Duke de London

Will have a look later this evening, so hang in there.

Thanks, no where near perfect, but got to get the screen time in.

GBPUSD before the London open in 45 minutes.

1 hour - 5 wave up complete ABC down now underway, maybe potential for a deep retracement on the C wave down to 200EMA.
I dont think the B wave is valid, as B wave does not breaches the high from wave A down? Feel some bear attraction may be given by 200 EMA and more BR*X*T uncertainty this week.

4 Hour - again ABC down, but it looks like we are still in wave A down, given no significant high looks to have been made from B wave up. Price above 200 EMA, may come down for a little kiss - or much more.

Either wave, MADC, RSI and Price action and Shortterm fundamentals are bearish for me. Trade is on paper only. Sell to 1.2200 level

 

[fibo_trader]

Happy Sunday Fibo et al.

GBPJPY for the week;

1 hour looks like 5 wave up complete, awaiting ABC down - MACD + RSI convergence, I am expecting price to head to the 130.00 point - based on .618 / 200 EMA / break of previous support, I expect this to be retested.

4 hour - A B C to complete the intermediate wave 1 down to the support of 130.00 would look to get involved here with on completion of wave 1 down to the .618.

Thoughts welcome!
1Hr
View attachment 267276



4hr
View attachment 267275

Charts look good. In 4H ..... RSI, why are the trendlines topside?

For the rally your ABC proj grid should have a 161.8% around 133.

See charts that follow