My trading journal - plus wave counting bits (old Trumps surprise visit to N.Korea)

[fibo_trader]

GBPJPY 1H

Play with the subtleties showing on the 1H timeframe to gain further short-term insight. I notice that RSI has a slightly lower low but otherwise momentum is still strong as per Macd. RSI trendline is still intact on 1H. But still, the Fibo target was hit. So should be respected and honored? Give it some thought. Play around with it.

 

[fibo_trader]

Magnifique, thank you for taking the time to review each time frame. Noted on your 4hr - I am curious to see whether the TL or the 423.6% is respected first. So your fibo grid is projected from the wave 1 of the significant low. So 0-100% Fibo on wave 1 and extended which shows price structure breaking and retesting the 161.8% and 261.8%.

The termination of wave 2 (where the golden yellow bottom TL starts) looks to be valid as not breaking low of wave 1 start.
Will the 423.6% become the termination of wave 5, with A wave correction starting from the zone.

Which gets respected first? good question. Even a spike up to hit the line and then drop is accepted normal behavior. But the key takeaway is the huge gains already. The last few centavos of the play might not be worth the Law of diminishing Returns. Who knows?

Your last question: it could, but we will know by letting trading get underway this coming week and observe before the overlap wtf is going on. Right now just enjoy the spoils in a nice bear cave. New headaches will come in soon enough and kick our asses.

Go for a drive in the mountains, deserted roads big scenery - alone - let the mind wander = best medicine for the trader

 

[ssam]

GBPJPY 1H

Play with the subtleties showing on the 1H timeframe to gain further short-term insight. I notice that RSI has a slightly lower low but otherwise momentum is still strong as per Macd. RSI trendline is still intact on 1H. But still, the Fibo target was hit. So should be respected and honored? Give it some thought. Play around with it.


View attachment 268522

Which gets respected first? good question. Even a spike up to hit the line and then drop is accepted normal behavior. But the key takeaway is the huge gains already. The last few centavos of the play might not be worth the Law of diminishing Returns. Who knows?

Your last question: it could, but we will know by letting trading get underway this coming week and observe before the overlap wtf is going on. Right now just enjoy the spoils in a nice bear cave. New headaches will come in soon enough and kick our asses.

Go for a drive in the mountains, deserted roads big scenery - alone - let the mind wander = best medicine for the trader

Oh mate - the scenery in that video looks amazing. Pair that with the Porsche and that the sh*t dreams are made of.
But yes, lets hide and watch what the week has in store. In the UK we are getting daily adverts to prepare for Brexit ... 'less than 15 days to go, make sure you're prepared' - parliament sat for the first time in 40years yesterday, so will see what comes from that!

All these nuggets head to the notebook of dreams. But the 1hr time frame is the one I missed, so will see if I can get this one if and some GBPUSD analysis later, I have a roast lamb in the slow cooker - without living up to the Sunday roast stereo type.

Are you EURUSD hunting this week? Do you have any positions open?

 

[fibo_trader]

Donate at least ?% of profits to Trader333. He has the right to make a profit too. I'm IN. Why? Imagine having to read our sh*t day in and day out.

 

[fibo_trader]

Oh mate - the scenery in that video looks amazing. Pair that with the Porsche and that the sh*t dreams are made of.
But yes, lets hide and watch what the week has in store. In the UK we are getting daily adverts to prepare for Brexit ... 'less than 15 days to go, make sure you're prepared' - parliament sat for the first time in 40years yesterday, so will see what comes from that!

All these nuggets head to the notebook of dreams. But the 1hr time frame is the one I missed, so will see if I can get this one if and some GBPUSD analysis later, I have a roast lamb in the slow cooker - without living up to the Sunday roast stereo type.

Are you EURUSD hunting this week? Do you have any positions open?

Thanks for the Brexit alert. EurUsd is a perennial hunt, I'm always in, one way or another even during sideways stuff when profits go low, I don't mind because the Euro commands soooooooo much respect in Fibo's book - the waves are so clear and clean, the fibos are magic, trendlines are as perfect as can be. It forms a continued education base. See my recent post on the US dollar Index hitting FIBO target 423.6% - (note: since Euro is 57.6% of the Index it pays dividends to study both side by side, they go together)

 

[fibo_trader]

Regarding op trades on dollar gbp or dollar vs others keep in mind that US Dollar Index has arrived at Fibo's resistance target on October 1 after a long runup since Feb 16, 2018. Will it blast thru' or reverse? Follow it on 1H. The resistance is a significant one. OP said dollar index would go up for weeks and it sure as heck it, but now I'm seeing something I don't like ............... an Ending Diagonal Triangle which as we wavers know should consist of abc for each internal wave. This setup sure is following that pattern.

But what if the triangle is a leading diagonal implying the first wave of a new series right at Fibonacci resistance? That could be a blast-off north bound that would scare the daylights out of everyone.

So there are 2 possibilities. Yeah yeah yeah, I know, what a crock, what a cop out saying its going either north or south, hahahaha. But that's where I am at. It really could go either way. I don't know.

Caution for pair traders

SLAM DUNK!!! on reading the US dollar Index's dangerous intersection and using the 1H to determine which is the likely route it would take.

See US Dollar Index 1H chart below since I mentioned it in the strategy to watch it for clues. Boy did he deliver the clues. See the 3-wave upwave after the first drop on 1H? That my dear chaps is signature corrective which means the trend is down on 1H until further notice. Then notice how the trendlines on 1H broke and the 200-ema also broke and RSI tendline also broke and the lower lows on Macd, no divergence ..............

just another day at the office for Fibo

By the way I'm Sure Sam has noticed that Fibo's backslapping self congratulating is merely to irritate the humongous old timer tight asses that inhabit this site. Their seething rage is my pleasure.

 

[ssam]

Thank you Fibo - this forum is a great resource for the timestamp. I will GBP USD is next on my list, but below is my week, day and 4hr on the GBPJPY for the trading week ahead. I have established my entry and exit and TP, my trade is set as follows;

SELL

MOST IMPORTANT STOP LOSS LEVEL - Stop loss set at 137.919. A level last tested at 28th June and a snip above the month high. The risk on this trade is a 1.4/1 risk to reward.

ENTRY - 136.950 pending set roughly 15 pips below friday close. This is to ensure I don't get busted in the yazoo should price carry on north on market open and my ANALysis is wrong!

I am looking to catch the short down to a level of previous support and 76.4% fibo level, which is support across daily and 4hr.
I think after such a profitable move, psychology tells me... maybe some profit taking and a retest of this previous support level. So why is my TP not slap bang on the fibo level, this is because I want to be sure I catch a large majority of the move, and not get whipsawed out of the position.

TAKE PROFIT - 135.594 should this move play out it might yield 136 pips... this profit target has been selected as it is a historic key level of support and recently turned resistance, which I expect to be a break and retest.


WEEKLY - 50 EMA in purple and 200 in Blue. the 50 as been broken and not retested. Also acts as a strong support and resistance. Price below both 200 and 50 = bearish stance in my rules.

View attachment 268514

DAILY - the FX pro full screen mode isn't great. But stay with me, the Fibo grid in purple shows the 76.4% as a key previous support level, which was busted through on Friday, so I fancy a retest of this level down to green spot. RSI topping out? Notice RSI ratios. See what happen at this level on 15th September.. we are slightly above this now, so I believe It to be cooling off with profit taking.


View attachment 268515


4HOUR - Click on this one and see the levels and trend lines. notice how the exhaustive move came on the touch of the 2 trend lines in yellow. Fibo grid removed on this so we can see price action. My take profit is set at the green spot - the red exhaustive red candle and also a few long wicks, price pushed but not closed in strong position. again, notice RSI is very strong but notice this is unfound heights in last couple of months. We do have a 50x200 ema cross, which is a strong buy signal - but I think the strong support levels held and the RSI for me is a stronger?... learning maybe.

View attachment 268516

This is for my education, not investment advice!

Take profit just triggered on this - nice 136 pips. Not bad if you were playing for £10 a pip! Not me tho.

This is all in the name of edumaction. Now let’s see just how accurate my TP level was.

I should have closed half at the TP and let profits run!!

Sat at my desk, on my phone ... if I was able to better monitor trades - I would have stayed short until a close above the decending TL as shown in purple.

 

[ssam]

Donate at least ?% of profits to Trader333. He has the right to make a profit too. I'm IN. Why? Imagine having to read our sh*t day in and day out.

Granted ready our Sh*te and rambling on a daily basis is worthy of donations to the masses.

However, I strongly believe amongst the tripe and squaller there are diamonds in the rough, diamonds aplenty.

 

[fibo_trader]

Granted ready our Sh*te and rambling on a daily basis is worthy of donations to the masses.

However, I strongly believe amongst the tripe and squaller there are diamonds in the rough, diamonds aplenty.

Regarding diamonds in the ruff, just you wait till you see the trading records of the ones who have been pouring advice for years and years. They are diamonds for sure ROFLMAO all made like the software in Thailand and sell for under $2. The higher quality diamonds that were to be found at forums have long since become extinct with the perpetual rise to political correctness and therefore banning. Bring all the banned guys back, take off their shackles, let 'em slap deadbeats around and boom, the value of this place skyrockets.

At forums in my experience the cops never know how to shoot a guy. They always shoot in the wrong place because they know zip about killing and its ramifications when you don't know where/how to shoot

As in movie, Once upon a time in the west, Charles Bronson goes back to see why his buddy fell off his horse. He fell off because the pain got so excruciating but he did not die and had to suffer in agony instead. Bronson looked and saw he was shot in the kidney. So finally his buddy says to him, "hey Harmonica, when they do you in, pray its someone who knows where to shoot!"

 

[fibo_trader]

Which particular real diamond is especially missing here?

The one that is labeled, "this diamond not only plays, it can shoot too!"

@ 1:59

 

[fibo_trader]

Granted ready our Sh*te and rambling on a daily basis is worthy of donations to the masses.

However, I strongly believe amongst the tripe and squaller there are diamonds in the rough, diamonds aplenty.

If you want to see a recent diamond go here but ignore my answers - its not about me, its about the op. His question deserves considerable thought and expertise and is initself a Phd project. I've been on it for some time now, progress is reasonable but no jackpot has been hit.

That question by op is a real diamond

Leading indicator for DOW

HI, I trade by creating excel models that predict directions and needed SL in DOW. The models try to predict the direction of DOW the following day etc. I know some say this can't be done, those people do not need to read any further ;-). I've tried finding a good leading indicator, my attempts...

www.trade2win.com

 

[fibo_trader]

Granted ready our Sh*te and rambling on a daily basis is worthy of donations to the masses.

Dig this: spend 5 days reading the forum for 6 hours per day.

After you kill yourself and are in spirit form, you might never ever want to go to a forum again. Forums = outhouse to the nth that never ever gets cleaned because the cleaners are all shot on sight or within a few weeks or months.

This is why I came up with the solution of trading records - in under 10 seconds of entry into a forum, a newbie or oldie would know who the real stars are in one glance. The outhouse stays clean thenceforward

 

[fibo_trader]

Dig this: spend 5 days reading the forum for 6 hours per day.

After you kill yourself and are in spirit form, you might never ever want to go to a forum again. Forums = outhouse to the nth that never ever gets cleaned because the cleaners are all shot on sight or within a few weeks or months.

This is why I came up with the solution of trading records - in under 10 seconds of entry into a forum, a newbie or oldie would know who the real stars are in one glance. The outhouse stays clean thenceforward

The custodians of these giant outhouses are what we call moderators. But they are much more than that. They are volunteers = salt of the earth. They are usually treated worse than the defecation in the outhouses. After considerable service they are let go sooner or later without a thought and dig this, they are given permission to get a new username and post as a regular poster.

Proof? In spades ............. ET hammered them all including Ivanovich, T_Gregg, Morganist and others. All gone, all forgotten. But not forgotten by Fibo.

 

[ssam]

Thank you Fibo - this forum is a great resource for the timestamp. I will GBP USD is next on my list, but below is my week, day and 4hr on the GBPJPY for the trading week ahead. I have established my entry and exit and TP, my trade is set as follows;

SELL

MOST IMPORTANT STOP LOSS LEVEL - Stop loss set at 137.919. A level last tested at 28th June and a snip above the month high. The risk on this trade is a 1.4/1 risk to reward.

ENTRY - 136.950 pending set roughly 15 pips below friday close. This is to ensure I don't get busted in the yazoo should price carry on north on market open and my ANALysis is wrong!

I am looking to catch the short down to a level of previous support and 76.4% fibo level, which is support across daily and 4hr.
I think after such a profitable move, psychology tells me... maybe some profit taking and a retest of this previous support level. So why is my TP not slap bang on the fibo level, this is because I want to be sure I catch a large majority of the move, and not get whipsawed out of the position.

TAKE PROFIT - 135.594 should this move play out it might yield 136 pips... this profit target has been selected as it is a historic key level of support and recently turned resistance, which I expect to be a break and retest.


WEEKLY - 50 EMA in purple and 200 in Blue. the 50 as been broken and not retested. Also acts as a strong support and resistance. Price below both 200 and 50 = bearish stance in my rules.

View attachment 268514

DAILY - the FX pro full screen mode isn't great. But stay with me, the Fibo grid in purple shows the 76.4% as a key previous support level, which was busted through on Friday, so I fancy a retest of this level down to green spot. RSI topping out? Notice RSI ratios. See what happen at this level on 15th September.. we are slightly above this now, so I believe It to be cooling off with profit taking.


View attachment 268515


4HOUR - Click on this one and see the levels and trend lines. notice how the exhaustive move came on the touch of the 2 trend lines in yellow. Fibo grid removed on this so we can see price action. My take profit is set at the green spot - the red exhaustive red candle and also a few long wicks, price pushed but not closed in strong position. again, notice RSI is very strong but notice this is unfound heights in last couple of months. We do have a 50x200 ema cross, which is a strong buy signal - but I think the strong support levels held and the RSI for me is a stronger?... learning maybe.

View attachment 268516

This is for my education, not investment advice!

Nothing changed from the 4hr chart time stamped above - but an almost pip perfect kiss on my support/resistance zone yesterday, which I am rather pleased with.

The take away from this is the strong support and resistance 'rules' which this pair follow.

Back to the office job - one trade closer to not having to do it anymore.

 

[fibo_trader]

GBPJPY 1H

Play with the subtleties showing on the 1H timeframe to gain further short-term insight. I notice that RSI has a slightly lower low but otherwise momentum is still strong as per Macd. RSI trendline is still intact on 1H. But still, the Fibo target was hit. So should be respected and honored? Give it some thought. Play around with it.


View attachment 268522

Even my best friends, even my best friends, they don't know
That my job is turning Lead into Gold


GBPJPY 1H: see the yellow channel lines above in quote from last weeek? See the Fibonacci 423.6% hit and correction (mild)? Now seee the rally today as it hits the channel top. Then see Macd sligh divergence but especially on histogram the smaller bars. Then see how Fibo's magnificent RSI trenline nicely contained the correction and then gave a bounce.

Yippie kai yeh, then count the internal subwaves up on 4H for simplicity - 1H might confuse you, pick either, the higher timeframe is always easier to see wave count, bla bla. See the 5 waves.

Take profit = exit short-term trade at 138.76

Retreat to BEAR CAVE and enjoy the spoils of War.

 

[ssam]

Even my best friends, even my best friends, they don't know
That my job is turning Lead into Gold


GBPJPY 1H: see the yellow channel lines above in quote from last weeek? See the Fibonacci 423.6% hit and correction (mild)? Now seee the rally today as it hits the channel top. Then see Macd sligh divergence but especially on histogram the smaller bars. Then see how Fibo's magnificent RSI trenline nicely contained the correction and then gave a bounce.

Yippie kai yeh, then count the internal subwaves up on 4H for simplicity - 1H might confuse you, pick either, the higher timeframe is always easier to see wave count, bla bla. See the 5 waves.

Take profit = exit short-term trade at 138.76

Retreat to BEAR CAVE and enjoy the spoils of War.


View attachment 268641

Belissimo belissimo! This is pure and unadulterated. Probably slightly too drinker than a skunk than I should be for a Tuesday night.

Dear Fibo_trader, have you dabbled in GBPJPY much? The waves seems to be playing in a rhythm akin to that of GOD SAVE THE QUEEN.

 

[fibo_trader]

Belissimo belissimo! This is pure and unadulterated. Probably slightly too drinker than a skunk than I should be for a Tuesday night.

Dear Fibo_trader, have you dabbled in GBPJPY much? The waves seems to be playing in a rhythm akin to that of GOD SAVE THE QUEEN.

Hahahahahahaha you're the man, Duke. Have youforgotten that it was YOU and only YOU who turned me on to GBPJPY.

I bow to you, Sir for this gift. Yes, shockingly nice that its waves are so stellar

Its a great pair now permanently included in my instruments to trade

Thanks to YOU

 

[fibo_trader]

Duke, keep eye on the RSI which you brought up ............................. monthly RSI on GBPJPY. If she blows thru' that trendline it could be huge rally. See the price trendlines too for reference and the spectacular FIBO grid hits.


Behold my friend and teacher a while back in my infancy as a trader. His name is Charles Bassetti, Professor of Finance, Golden Gate University, California. Author of the TA bible, Technical analysis of stock trends
You could attend his graduate course in stock market - the only university I believe that offers such. No Elliottwave, no Fibos, he laffs at Fibo's Fibo grids and shakes his head in disbelief that Fibo is sooooooo stubborn

 

[fibo_trader]

Sorry Duke, forgot the chart for GBPJPY monthly - see the close to happening RSI breakout?

 

[fibo_trader]

GBPJPY weekly RSI breakout