Grey_Eminence
Newbie
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One year ago I started trading publicly, then I had an ambitious plan, which was to trade systematically and have a 100% positive result so that there were no losing trades. Surprisingly, I managed to do this within 2 months, I made 139 trades and all of them were profitable. This was not a random result and not luck as it might seem, it was made possible thanks to the decision-making system.
Every day I set myself a plan to earn 2% profit, and more often than not, I over-fulfilled it by trading only 1-2 hours after the market opened.
However, I did not manage to stay at the top for a long time, and I allowed a deep drawdown of about 40%, losing most of the profit. It lasted about a month, after which I managed to return the profit, but I lost interest in the project and put it on pause to collect my thoughts.
All this time I was thinking about what caused the losing period and what to do next. In my opinion, there are two reasons, firstly, it is impossible to always act accurately in the market, even if your trading system is very good and your experience tells you the right answers, there is still room for error. Secondly, emotions are the dark side of the personality, a wild beast living under the guise of logic and order, ready to take power over you at the most unexpected moment, when you feel very good, he will turn your head and make you believe in a miracle, but when you feel bad he will terrify you and destroy all your plans.
After realizing the nature of the market and my own, after a while, I decided to continue even though my reputation as a break-even trader was ruined. But it removed my obligation to have 100% winning trades, and I began to calmly accept losses as long as they are of an acceptable size.
Now I use two systems, short-term and medium-term. If you're wondering how it works, here's what I do:
1. Technical analysis.
2. Fundamental analysis.
3. Trading system signals.
4. Position management.
I want to say hello to everyone who claims that technical analysis does not work and that it is useless. What do you mean it doesn't work? The analysis is the breaking down of complex things into simpler parts. How can a mechanism, disassembled into parts, work at all? If your doctor does a blood test, it will allow him to make a diagnosis, but it will not allow him to predict your life. The thing is that medical analyzes are done in the same way according to the same rules, and everyone does technical analysis the way they want, so the results are different for everyone. But analysis is a necessary element of knowledge, it answers the question of what was and what is happening now. Technical analysis is the analysis of actions taken in the past, but this does not guarantee their repetition in the future. It is enough for me to determine the levels of support and resistance, reference points for building trend channels, and calculate the potential for movements. I also use indicators of vertical and horizontal volume, cumulative delta, footprint, relative strength index, and moving averages.
Fundamental analysis is considered a more reliable method for predicting long-term market developments, but this is just one more piece of the puzzle. In the economy, everything is connected to everything, so it is important to see the big picture to timely identify contradictions in statistics and respond to changes. I pay attention to economic news releases and market reactions and track the Fed's balance sheet, interest rate, fear level, and many other statistics.
After analyzing, I conclude whether the bulls or bears have an advantage at the moment, or the situation is uncertain. Based on this, I start looking for signals in the right direction. My system is pattern type, it allows you to find highly probable repeating elements. Indicators are not used to receive a signal, because indicators are only an interpretation and projection of the three main elements: price, volume, and time. Indicators lag or lead, so their signals are not a reliable basis for decision-making. I use candlestick patterns to receive signals, and I use indicators only as filters, this allows me to increase the probability of profitability of signals.
Suppose you have made an analysis, received a signal, and opened a position, but what to do next? Where to put a stop and take profit? How long to hold the position? These questions can be answered by backtesting and experience. You must create a rule not to act impulsively, and to pre-calculate the goals and time to hold the position.
Today, my strategy has brought 110% profit in one year, and I'm not going to stop there. I have 19 years of experience in stock trading and financial market analytics, for me all of the above actions are familiar work, which I like. But if someone tells you that making money on the exchange is easy, then look at the statistics, 95% of traders lose their money in the long run. How to get into these coveted 5% of profitable traders? There are only two options, it is to learn from successful traders or use their services.
Every day I set myself a plan to earn 2% profit, and more often than not, I over-fulfilled it by trading only 1-2 hours after the market opened.
However, I did not manage to stay at the top for a long time, and I allowed a deep drawdown of about 40%, losing most of the profit. It lasted about a month, after which I managed to return the profit, but I lost interest in the project and put it on pause to collect my thoughts.
All this time I was thinking about what caused the losing period and what to do next. In my opinion, there are two reasons, firstly, it is impossible to always act accurately in the market, even if your trading system is very good and your experience tells you the right answers, there is still room for error. Secondly, emotions are the dark side of the personality, a wild beast living under the guise of logic and order, ready to take power over you at the most unexpected moment, when you feel very good, he will turn your head and make you believe in a miracle, but when you feel bad he will terrify you and destroy all your plans.
After realizing the nature of the market and my own, after a while, I decided to continue even though my reputation as a break-even trader was ruined. But it removed my obligation to have 100% winning trades, and I began to calmly accept losses as long as they are of an acceptable size.
Now I use two systems, short-term and medium-term. If you're wondering how it works, here's what I do:
1. Technical analysis.
2. Fundamental analysis.
3. Trading system signals.
4. Position management.
I want to say hello to everyone who claims that technical analysis does not work and that it is useless. What do you mean it doesn't work? The analysis is the breaking down of complex things into simpler parts. How can a mechanism, disassembled into parts, work at all? If your doctor does a blood test, it will allow him to make a diagnosis, but it will not allow him to predict your life. The thing is that medical analyzes are done in the same way according to the same rules, and everyone does technical analysis the way they want, so the results are different for everyone. But analysis is a necessary element of knowledge, it answers the question of what was and what is happening now. Technical analysis is the analysis of actions taken in the past, but this does not guarantee their repetition in the future. It is enough for me to determine the levels of support and resistance, reference points for building trend channels, and calculate the potential for movements. I also use indicators of vertical and horizontal volume, cumulative delta, footprint, relative strength index, and moving averages.
Fundamental analysis is considered a more reliable method for predicting long-term market developments, but this is just one more piece of the puzzle. In the economy, everything is connected to everything, so it is important to see the big picture to timely identify contradictions in statistics and respond to changes. I pay attention to economic news releases and market reactions and track the Fed's balance sheet, interest rate, fear level, and many other statistics.
After analyzing, I conclude whether the bulls or bears have an advantage at the moment, or the situation is uncertain. Based on this, I start looking for signals in the right direction. My system is pattern type, it allows you to find highly probable repeating elements. Indicators are not used to receive a signal, because indicators are only an interpretation and projection of the three main elements: price, volume, and time. Indicators lag or lead, so their signals are not a reliable basis for decision-making. I use candlestick patterns to receive signals, and I use indicators only as filters, this allows me to increase the probability of profitability of signals.
Suppose you have made an analysis, received a signal, and opened a position, but what to do next? Where to put a stop and take profit? How long to hold the position? These questions can be answered by backtesting and experience. You must create a rule not to act impulsively, and to pre-calculate the goals and time to hold the position.
Today, my strategy has brought 110% profit in one year, and I'm not going to stop there. I have 19 years of experience in stock trading and financial market analytics, for me all of the above actions are familiar work, which I like. But if someone tells you that making money on the exchange is easy, then look at the statistics, 95% of traders lose their money in the long run. How to get into these coveted 5% of profitable traders? There are only two options, it is to learn from successful traders or use their services.
