Potential impeachment but definitely rocky road ahead
How would you trade that? If he got impeached would a vice president take over or is there another election? If democrats got in I could see some sort of slide in the dollar but I am not sure why it would have much effect if his number 2 got in for example as they would have similar views / policies. That said hopefully the number 2 wouldn't be so retarded to create trade wars over dying industries.
There will likely be volatility both ways with the potential for the easing of their stance on trade wars, nafta, and sanctions supporting the $. I will focus on the initial reaction but will then focus on the Fed to see if they alter policy as a result. If they hold off until certainty then there will be significant $ selling so it will be a case of monitoring sentiment closely with filters on news feeds to catch it.
For now however its a case of wait and see where this goes and what the democrats do. They will need more evidence against Trump before this becomes viable. Any chat about impeachment will trigger risk off but would need to be backed by a catalyst that gives it credibility
do you trade any other instruments other than spread bet? (at least I assume you spread bet). How does one trade volatility through spread betting? I know you can go delta neutral in options then scalp gamma and wait for a big move but I don't know how one would trade in spreadbetting.
Update on new account
It is up 8.9% since moving from A.X.I.Trader and now i am wondering when to begin my version of Kelly position sizing with my 1 year review of progress now only 1.5 months away. This is a key time that could ultimately make or break me depending on how well i keep misjudgement at bay due to the psychological effects of success and the elephant in the room being the money factor. I have been trading peanuts at 10 pence per pip and i am unsure how sizing up is going to affect my performance or metal well-being. I must admit i am apprehensive about this and part of me wants to go another year to be absolutely sure but i am 40 years old and time isn't really on my side if i want to make this viable on a full-time basis. I know others here like me continue to consult professionally and trade on the side but I want to be totally free from doing this because IT is a young persons game and it is getting harder to keep up. I have had to learn so much over the last 20 years and probably have done several degrees worth of material in that time. The average IT book is between 300 and 500 pages and studying them year in - year out is becoming a chore and i am rapidly losing interest. I find myself reading more financial related material these days and it is getting harder to pickup IT books.
I guess i have to man up and step up to the plate and face my destiny. It will either lead to me being free from having to work or become a side project and potential retirement account. No idea if i have what it takes to do this full-time but i need to find out. So for the next 1.5 months i will be deep diving into any material that can help prep me psychologically.
It is up 8.9% since moving from A.X.I.Trader and now i am wondering when to begin my version of Kelly position sizing with my 1 year review of progress now only 1.5 months away. This is a key time that could ultimately make or break me depending on how well i keep misjudgement at bay due to the psychological effects of success and the elephant in the room being the money factor. I have been trading peanuts at 10 pence per pip and i am unsure how sizing up is going to affect my performance or metal well-being. I must admit i am apprehensive about this and part of me wants to go another year to be absolutely sure but i am 40 years old and time isn't really on my side if i want to make this viable on a full-time basis. I know others here like me continue to consult professionally and trade on the side but I want to be totally free from doing this because IT is a young persons game and it is getting harder to keep up. I have had to learn so much over the last 20 years and probably have done several degrees worth of material in that time. The average IT book is between 300 and 500 pages and studying them year in - year out is becoming a chore and i am rapidly losing interest. I find myself reading more financial related material these days and it is getting harder to pickup IT books.
I guess i have to man up and step up to the plate and face my destiny. It will either lead to me being free from having to work or become a side project and potential retirement account. No idea if i have what it takes to do this full-time but i need to find out. So for the next 1.5 months i will be deep diving into any material that can help prep me psychologically.
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I am currently trading CFDs
Nowler
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Personally I'm excited to see how you work this out!
Ive been reading your stuff for a while now and you've got some solid understanding of the dynamics at play and I doubt anyone would dispute that you can handle yourself in the markets well.
The sizing up will be interesting
I'm eager to see how you manage the increase, and more importantly, manage your psychology.
Im not putting pressure on you i hope. You're a smart guy with ample awareness. Sizing up incrementally should take the choppyness out of the water. Just think about things in terms of percentages, not monetary value.
PS: Pass me on any of the material you find useful
Pwetty pwease
Ive been reading your stuff for a while now and you've got some solid understanding of the dynamics at play and I doubt anyone would dispute that you can handle yourself in the markets well.
The sizing up will be interesting
I'm eager to see how you manage the increase, and more importantly, manage your psychology.
Im not putting pressure on you i hope. You're a smart guy with ample awareness. Sizing up incrementally should take the choppyness out of the water. Just think about things in terms of percentages, not monetary value.
PS: Pass me on any of the material you find useful
Pwetty pwease
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Can I ask why you trade CFD's over spreadbet? You seem very profitable so you have to pay taxes on that which you would not do with a CFD? I may just be super naive but is it only worth trading CFD's if you are learning / unprofitable. (You may well say you are learning but based on your successes I would say that you are past the point of which I am defining learning - thats not to say that trading and life isnt a constant education in which you need to run just to stay still)
To be honest I haven't thought much about the tax implications yet. The spread betting industry has carried a bad name over the years based on what I have read about it at least. Having the broker become the market and effectively take the other side of the trade concerns me. I know some guys here do it professionally so there is a pimple of hope that I too could move in that direction. My method of trading is getting into an event that is being priced into the market which comes with high Volatility. I don't know how the spread betters trading engine works so I am concerned about my ability to be able to react in time and without requotes or unacceptable slippage. I guess I won't know until I try. I would rather pay tax and have consistency with execution if my concerns are realised.
My success to date I am taking with a healthy serving of salt. I know my strategy can work in any market condition but my concern is me and specifically an unknown area of trading I am working towards. I don't know how I would handle factors I have yet to experience and money is one of them especially being the bread winner with a wife and 6 year old as well as a mortgage to service.
Whatever my concern I am going to find out where it leads. Taking the risk is worth it I believe. Worst case scenario I end up blowing out. Middle case scenario I end up with a pension fund. Best case scenario I handle all the unknown factors in my stride and release myself from bosses forever (except the wife of course).
Well pull up a seat and grab some popcorn. It's either going to be legendary or a tear jerker.Personally I'm excited to see how you work this out!
Ive been reading your stuff for a while now and you've got some solid understanding of the dynamics at play and I doubt anyone would dispute that you can handle yourself in the markets well.
The sizing up will be interesting
I'm eager to see how you manage the increase, and more importantly, manage your psychology.
Im not putting pressure on you i hope. You're a smart guy with ample awareness. Sizing up incrementally should take the choppyness out of the water. Just think about things in terms of percentages, not monetary value.
PS: Pass me on any of the material you find useful
Pwetty pwease
Going to begin with Mark Douglas and work from there. If I find anything that seems viable will share it here. Of course I'll never know if it's bull5h!t until I apply it. Either way I am going to face this challenge head on with a crash helmet and nutsack protector.
Fed minutes preview.
If the fed upgrade their forecast we should see the $ supported. I am not really interested in going long $ at these levels and unless they add more hikes than previously forecast I will be sitting on my hands. If however unlikely they cast a more dovish tone I will be selling $ but have yet to look at pairing it with a stronger counterpart. I have been fairly busy at work today and with light news leading into fed minutes coupled with my profit from this morning, I wasn't in hunt mode for sentiment opportunities. Scanning the headlines nothing stands out so may very well be a dud especially with this being a major vacation month in the industry.
If the fed upgrade their forecast we should see the $ supported. I am not really interested in going long $ at these levels and unless they add more hikes than previously forecast I will be sitting on my hands. If however unlikely they cast a more dovish tone I will be selling $ but have yet to look at pairing it with a stronger counterpart. I have been fairly busy at work today and with light news leading into fed minutes coupled with my profit from this morning, I wasn't in hunt mode for sentiment opportunities. Scanning the headlines nothing stands out so may very well be a dud especially with this being a major vacation month in the industry.
Yeah it's a 70% reduction to accommodate leverage changes. I wrote the formula in the previous page of this thread. You should have heard about this in your market wizards book as I think at least 1 of the people being interviewed used it and its backed by stats. I think if you have a rubbish trading strategy then it can easily go t!ts upSounds like a plan!
Though, when I hear Kelly criterion or Martingale, my butt clenches so tight you would get a visa card through my cheeks.
You did say "your version" of Kelly though. So I'll loosen it up a little