Sorry it has nothing to do with the BOC event although there is a potential for the event to line up.
My rational:
My observations of data points is that any individual release doesn't change central bank policy and only serves as a sentiment driver. Inflation data globally has been soft although picking up. out of the last 65 q/q CPI stamps for AU, 52% of them have had higher expectations than the release and 91% have missed (including above and below expectations). Out of the last 44 trimmed q/q CPI 40% of them had higher expectations than the release and 75% have missed(including above and below) - I am a bit of a nutcase when it comes to details like this, it helps me solidify my judgement. With a great deal of the data points coming out of line with expectations to me is a property of an imperfect estimation methodology so there is a great deal of margin of error.
Looking at the AU CPI data q/q, previous stamp was 0.2 and today it is 0.6 which is positive. Trimmed CPI has been bouncing between 0.4 and 0.5 since July 2016 so it is range bound but more importantly not getting any worse.
China is a critical piece of AU's economy and they have been ticking up in various areas of the economy so their demand for raw materials is growing and this is confirmed by the most recent BOA policy statements and the price of ore like copper and coal. All this to me puts the BOA on hold with a slightly hawkish tone.
Moving onto Canada, exports have been weakening, Inflation weakening, business confidence is worse than earlier in the year, inventories picking up while retail sales worsening, building permits and starts worsening, worsening trade balance, foreign investment worsening. There also seems to be market chatter to the tune of BOC potentially hiking too soon and now going into a hold pattern until data improves. I don't expect a hike today and I will be looking for anything negative in the minutes that were not present in the last statement.
So in summary I see greater risks to the downside for CAD than I do AUD and looking to capture a reassertion of AUD fundamentals and a softening of the current CPI sentiment. I am hoping the BOC minutes will be the catalyst and my order is set for a breakout of this range so if it doesn't trigger then its not in issue.