Mr Cat learns to trade

[robicat]

Thanks ... i follow binarys and use them to price my decisions sometimes. Spreads are better cause you can control risk return. A binary is really a bet against a market. Spreads seem to me more open to getting systemic edges.

My experiment is to see if i can trade 1000. What I am doing is playing tight on risk, and grabbing good odds on breaks and turns. I expect to lose 3 deals to one win. The shorter i keep losses the easier it is to grab 3-1 odds. Playing the game of inches gives you a supply of freerolls and small wins, and hopefully a supply of small profits that can be put into a deal that is of a more medium term nature. Longer term the idea i am having is to let some of the positions evolve into interday positions, thats not this drill though which is more about learning to let go of deals.

The key is killing deals that lose the edge (momentum) early, and taking profit at a rate that is more than 3-1 above yr average loss, and being selective enough to hit 1 in 4 deals.

Anyhow its a plan...

Closed Out deal +45

-4, +12, +45 = 5.3%

 

[robicat]

Oh well so much for my Euro Rally theory.

 

[robicat]

Eval.

11/08 - 4 trades +15, +35, -4, -10 (score 0,+ 5.6%)
12/08 - 5 trades +53, -18, -19, -3, 0 (score 0, +1.3%)
13/08 - 3 trades -4, +12, +45 (score 0, +5.3%)

Week 12 trades - Loss 7 for 58, Win 5 for 170. Ave Loss 8.28 Ave Win 34

W/L = .71 (Target .33) AveP/AveL 4.1 (Target 3.33) PL 112/1000

Weekly score - +1 (11.2%)

 

[robicat]

Good result - particularly as I was playing against the trend backing EURO v USD.

I suspect I can take a few more deals on. The trick is to find patterns in the charts that fit the money management pattern i am playing.

 

[robicat]

Arrggg.... system failure.... pc that is. Funny I was thinking that i needed to get the pc platform solid - and way more monitor .... the next day..... boof no computer.

So had to buy a new one..... presently i am being microsoft vista'd (ouch) but will be starting trading again now with wonderful massive graphs to look at.

Im interested in someone telling me briefly if IG Markets and the like who do CFDs are "spread betters"....

and what the difference is....

I think once i am on top of this new PC I will be ready for anything ie backtesting software. Anyone have any suggestions? Also I'm interested on peoples thoughts about subscribing to a paper trading platform. At present im sort of camping on IG's turf looking at their charts, and using there deal ticket to "make beleive:" click through the deal, then recording it here.

I'm certainly a waste of bandwidth to them so i expect them to turf me off at some stage.

The other option I have is to keep demo-ing different platforms which is messy.

Anyhows thinking out loud here though if anyone has random thoughts or advice on these topics feel free.

Now im gonna go look at some graphs on my 22 inch monitor.

 

[robicat]

Had a -7 earlier.

Into FTSE +1 in at 5466 - stop at 5450 risk 16.

Stop out to 46 risk 20

Sold at 62 - loss -4

-7, -4,

 

[robicat]

I think the plan is is to make 3x my average loss, counting 0s as loses. The plan can be used to make freerolls, which lowers the ave, increases the deals by decreasing the required targets.

The system self regulates towards lowering risk. Tho say if you went -15, -16 ... one is tempted to put another 1-2% deal in. In this case one would need a clear upside of at least 45 pts. A rule that tightens things at this end may be good. Losing the next couple of deals at -2, -3, takes the heat off, as profit targets drop to around 25-30. What I like about it is that it actually gives taking a little hit a bright side - so yr less likely to go -15, -16.... you may go -15, -2, -3, -6 +27.
Locking in little freerolls and profits is good value as well as they serve as free hits systemically.

Anyhow interesting to map the motivational force field Kurt Lewin Style. The system tightens and becomes more selective. ie -16, -2 (early out on a play looking for 32), -6 (looking for 27) etc....,
though the reward for playing tight on risk is more deals, or at least deals that are easier to get out of with some statistically meaningful profit. Once again the effects of 0s (count as losses) and small profits have will need to be thought about.

 

[robicat]

If i hadn't unwound it, this last onwe would have become a 11 pt freeroll or a free roll +5.

Decision (a)-7, -4 (Risk 20) pretty fair decision given i had come back from -16 and had vowed to get out if given a reprieve.

if id guessed right....(b) -7, 0 or (c) -7, +5 or a bigger figure if the bet gets lucky.

so the next deal is shaped (a) Risk 6, target 18 (b) Risk 4 target 12 (c) Risk 7, target 21

 

[robicat]

I'm off to bed.

 

[robicat]

Nkay

Back to it tommorrow. Trailing MicroFX platform.... as it can play at 10c a pip.

This opens up the shape of the deal - though i will stick to the risk/profit targets outlined above.

 

[robicat]

Nkay - trailing FX Micro - being able to play at 10c a pip opens the possibilities up.

traded two days - $36 down.

Working on entry system based on SMA, candlesticks. Working on qualifying the market for a deal through 60 min charts - then finding triggers on 1 min chart.

Exploring stop limits within the 1% money management system outlined.

 

[robicat]

Nkay back uinto the fray.

Got a sell setup on cable. Working on 10c a pip at 400 leverage.

The plan is to get a trigger then set a 1% risk bet. If this profits i will take one of two strategies -

1- generate small freeroll or small locked in profits.

2 - add to the position - expanding risk up to 2% if the trend looks strong.

3- basic plan is for wining trades to recoup 4x the average of last three losses.

3.1 Zero yrades count as losses.

4. Initial then add to the trade. Contract size of builds =progressive 1, 2, 3. Initial risk = average of last three losses.

5. Sell most profitable open contract if sell signal emerges. Clear position if clear signal emerges.

 

[robicat]

Trade 1 -1 Sept

Cable

Sell 6 a 339 stop 707 Risk 22.00 = 2.2% (Note miscalculated and bought outside policy - plan - bring risk in)

Change stop to 339 - Freeroll - $11.34 profit on deal.

(plan let deal generate profit then in invest this in risk to 1% of capital + some profit. Id like to lock in a small profit at this point as well - wait and see)

(1 min the market is volitile... expect to lose some of these free rolls - profit on deal is 3.00 this far after a retracement)

stop filled loss 0

 

[robicat]

0

GBP/USD 6 S 1.80296 1.80319 1.80497

Risk 1.2%

 

[robicat]

Stop filled.

0, -12 (Ave6)

Next trade targets 1.8% profit.

 

[robicat]

Eur/Yen qualified for short trade.
Eur/Aud qualified for long trade
AUD/YEN qualified for short trade
GBP/AUD q short

AUD/JPY 4 S 92.435 92.510 92.600
Risk .66

 

[robicat]

Deal is down $4. decision hold

Build trigger AUD/JPY 1 S 92.508 92.601

 

[robicat]

Close trigger buy 1 at 575 loss .62 (within trade)

-4 contracts

AUD/JPY 1 S 92.508 92.600

AUD/JPY 2 S 92.389 92.602

Summary

AUD/JPY -7 92.428 Stop x600 Risk 1.19% profit .42%

Build down trigger03 AUD/JPY 1 S 92.475 92.455 2 0.18

AUD/JPY -6

AUD/JPY 3 S 92.255 92.601 -
AUD/JPY 2 S 92.337 92.598
AUD/JPY 3 S 92.134 92.597

Summary
-15 92.311 Stop 92.600 Risk 4.5% less 2.6% Profit = 1.9% Capital risk

(Decision do I bring stop in?)








-5 contracts

 

[robicat]

Aud/jpy 3 S 91.991 92.605
Aud/jpy 3 S 91.991 92.605

 

[robicat]

AUD/JPY 92.201 Stop 92.600 -20 57.19 57.19 Risk = 2.7%