foroom lluzers
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Is 'not back-testing' one of the 40?![]()
Back testing without psychology is one of them , backtesting for historical conditions gives you a false edge , it dissapears when markets change , yet the marketing men of back testing software and services will continue with their holy grail and vendors will continue with theirs.
Your question may be very intelligent.If you back testing gives you information to place real money bets , on historical set ups , why would it work ?Every set up of t/a has 3 outcomes ,they fail or nothing happens or it works 33% chance of success .
Most professors who teach in business schools feel that most technical analysis rules are historic , and are aids for gamblers.Gamblers need a reason to bet , and technical anylysis gives gamblers the reason.
A recent study by finance professors at Massey University in New Zealand examined more than 5,000 technical trading rules to see if they added value. The authors found "no evidence that the profits to the technical trading rules we consider are greater than those that might be expected due to random data variation."
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/is-technical-analysis-a-waste-of-time/
Most of you will give opinions of why t/a works , you can not provide any evidence or studies because technical anylysis can not be tested , it does not always work , all context can not be applied in testing , emotional trading failures due to t/a failure can't be tested , stress and it's negative influences of t/a can't be back tested.WTF. F O S .
Give me 50 opinion posts without evidence ,and start up 10 other threads positive about t/a , that t/a works.(VENDORS ONLY SELL COURSES OF SNAKE OIL)
95 % losers in trading probably use t/a to place bets.
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