Monthly Thread: November 2003

Good Morning all,

took the profits on both trades at current prices:

EUR close @1.1922 (+32 pips)

Swissy @1.3030 (+47 pips)

Good Day and Good Trading,

Rezo
 
That is it for now, holding all positions over the weekend.

Nice weekend to all!
 
Hi all,

selling short term trade on USDCHF @current 1.3144 for 60 pip profit and 40 stop
 
Hi Rezo

I have been following your trades a few months and have read your money management rules etc as you may recall from previous posts.

I have a question if I may: Why do your latest trades have a r:r ratio of less than 2:1?. You rules say that this is the minimum r:r you would consider.

Please don't take the question the wrong way- I'm just curious to know if you have changed your methodolgy/ reasons why etc.

Thanks

Darren
 
Hello Darren,

Sorry for not posting an explanation here on that issue. I have explained it on moneytec, but still got same questions. If I may, I will just quote my reply to same Q:

I don't use to move stops intraday, and that is what is needed in order to take couple pips of each move. In addition, many times, very good trades, which eventually run for the 200-300 pips defined targets get stoped out on breakeven after being up 50-60 pips (after I move to b/e, trades are closed without giving second entry signal and continuing the way to target) so not talking about moving stops intraday to protect 20-30 pips which may with greater possibility close the possibly good trades. In my case, one trade running for target is worth 3-5 losing trades, therefore I don't use to risk reachable target for intraday 20-30 pips. If my system was to provide signals more often, I would do that.
But believe me, I am after those "given back pips" for long time now (even before starting posting here) - it is really a shame to give up on those breakeven trades. Statistically, I have over 35% closed at breakeven, and it means those trades were AT LEAST 30 pips in my favor (this is the least after which I move stop to b/e - sometimes position may move as much as 50-80 pips before I move to b/e).
In order to take advantage of those pips and/or combine shorter term trades with the longer term positional-swing trading style of mine, I needed to do some home work, go through my trading...and more - not a little work. Originally my plan was: This has to be an additional intraday system for shorter term trades IN ADDITION to longer term trades. And I mentioned about it many times here on this forum that I am after such intraday system. Once I even had a thread of "testing intraday system", but it didn't work as good as expected.
I was in no hurry for that one, and was checking many things lately. I have came up with something and on history+real time testing it looks quiet good.
Unfortunately (?) I have not came up with intraday system...All in all it is same signal as my usual trades. BUT: for example if I have a long entry on eurusd, I will take 2 positions instead of originally one. One will be for the longer term bigger target, and the second one would be with fixed 30:50 ratio in order to take advantage of those breakeven situations( 30 pip stop and 50 pip target).
Have gone through all my actual history of trades and tested it live since August now. Based on the real time test (for last +3 month - Aug till now), it would give me around additional +11.6%. It matches the expectations of the breakeven trades I have. Statistically I have in avg 14-15 trades a month:
avg 5-6 of those trades are closed at breakeven,
4-5 trades are loosing and
5-6 are winning.
More than half of trades closed at breakeven are going more than 30 pips in my favor and potentially reach the 50 pip target before reversing back. So it would add me in avg 3 winning trades for 50 pip target (50 pips on euro with 1:4 leveraging = 2%), but if original longer term trades were stopped, these shorter were stopped, and if longer term trades went for target, these 50 pip target would be hit as well.
So, if we take this shorter term trading as a separate, it would be:
2-3 breakeven trades
8-9 winning trades,
4-5 loosing trades

Pretty nice result.

On euro, yen and cable it is 30:50 (stop:target), on swissy it is 40:60. It is almost 1.2% risk and 2% reward on each such trade.
Trading only the 4 majors, Stop moved to breakeven after 25 pips move, and second (last time) stop moved to lock 10 pips after 40 pips move.
With such results we should expect a +10% a month (!), but unfortunately reality is not always so sweet. It is always different. On trading in real live market conditions, this system still gave a pretty great results :
AUG: +8%
SEP: -1.2%
OCT: +2.4%
NOV: +2.4% till now.

So I repeat that this in no new intraday system - it is just a shorter version of my original system in order to take advantage of the positions which get stopped out at breakeven after being in positive territory. I am planning to use it in addition to my positions. But I don't wish to get exposed to additional risk, and therefore the plan is:
If I have an entry on 2 currency pairs, I will be entering 2 longer term positions and 2 additional positions with 30:50 r:r. Compared to before, I have been taking up to 3 trades at the same time with avg of 70 pips stop. Now I would be taking 2 longer term trades with avg 70 pips stop and 2 additional trades with fixed 30 pips stop, ie 1.2% risk each - risk with this approach is even lower. The 2 trades together are with lower risk than avg single trade before (70 pip/trade before and 2*30=60 pips risk for 2 shorter term trades).

Anyways, this is something I would like to add as an improvement of my current trading style. We all should evolve - any sector of our life: any industry, science, society... bcos there is no end to becoming better, or at least trying to. I think this is going to be a good addition. I have tested it, and think it is very worthwhile and this is a change after which I was for long time now; but I took my time to find the best possible way to profit from those breakeven trades. I will have to consult with my clients before applying this to managed accounts. Once again, it is not a new system - same trading signals, but tighter stops and targets. This will increase the number of trades, but will give good opportunity to take advantage of those trades that go to positive direction for less than target.

Ok, long post - lots of not needed details. hope anyone but me understands what I am talking about here

Anyways, I hope this answers the dilemma Jim; its just that I am not taking any quick new decision on changing/modifying my trading. It may occur to be VERY expensive ). Its better to look at those pips go from time to time rather than doing something that "seems" to be right. I think enough said. I wanted to keep this test till the end of this month at least before telling about it, but after seeing this question once again (I was asked this one previously as well several times), I decided to give it out.

If you have any additional questions, dont hesitate to ask me,

Regards,

Rezo
 
Happy Thanksgiving Day everyone!

If someone still would like to take a little trade before celebrating, my reco is to sell USDCHF at current 1.3110 with 40 stop and 60 tgt; move to breakeven after 25 pips in favor and lock 10 pips after 40 pips in favor.

Have a good time!
 
and if you are still around :D, here's another reco - for euro:

buy at current 1.1899 with 30 stop and 50 tgt; stop to b/e after 25 and lock 10 after 40 :)

see you all tomorrow!
 
Hello again Rezo and thanks for your previous (comprehensive) reply. That explains everything clearly thanks.

As it happens, I am also looking at how I can improve profits/ reduce risk by either splitting trades/ running closer stops etc.

Up until now my system has meant that trades are either stopped out, break even, or hit target- nothing in between.

Although I've only been trading the system for 4 months now successfully (now 41% up on starting capital over this period), I have noticed a number of trades which were close to hitting target but then reversed and ended up being break even trades and one or two losing trades which could have been break even.

I am currently looking back over these trades to see what type of trailing stop method would have helped me achieve a better result/ reduce risk without affecting other successful trades.

I am just about there and will probably be introducing some "tweeks" to my own rules shortly.

Regards

Darren
 
Good morning everyone,

moving those stops to entry levels on both!

Darren,

I think it is worth trying to find something. What about same as I did - just open 2 units instead of one you did before, just that half position will be closed on tighter stop and profit taken on smaler target?

all the best!
 
Lets take some profits on one of the trades: closing the euro long at current 1.1921 for +22 pips
Move the stop on swissy to 1.3100 to lock 10 pips and let it run for 10 pips or the target.

cheers
 
I made a call here on swissy (Nov.18), to short at 1.3251, after which the stop was moved to breakeven. I dont know how many of you are still holding it, but I got a question on what happened on that trade. Well, I personally closed for some profit and then reentered after the spike back in the begining of this week. But since as a reco on this website, there were no changes made since stop moved to breakeven, I say for those who are still holding it - book profits now at current 1.2950. It may go lower, but it is an end of the month and end of the week, so it is not bad to book 301 pips! (+9.3%). Not bad for a single trade.

Good Luck!
 
Ok, I closed most of my positions, booked some nice profits, including the swissy trade.
USD may weaken even more, but I will get some of it if it does.
Detailed performance results for this month will be published on the website and will be up in the begining of next week.
Not a bad month - I would say even better than average.
Hope you all as well had a profitable day, week and month.

This thread is closed, I will open a new one for December.

See you all next week (month :))

Best regards,

Rezo Shmertz
 
hi rezo i am new to your thread, please could you advise me of the webstie you were referring to.

cheers
anmolway
 
hi all, i am presently just position trading currency movements, but i am looking to day trading - sb companies have wide spreads - how else can one deal with curriecncies

thanks
 
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