Focus: GBPUSD
Hello Everyone.
Well, last weeks' buying of EURUSD (after a break of a triangle) didn't fulfill expectations that it may start the renewed move north and we are still in a range with current top seen at 1.2450/60 area as silent_fish correctly told us, followed by the 1.2500/50 area as the next important level for confirmations that we are really starting to move somewhere.
Nevertheless, as I mentioned last week, some other major currencies should and are already starting to show some interesting developments. As we all probably know, the USDJPY has made quiet an impressive move by selling off the 112 zone down to mid 106s, and if we indeed see the resuming of USD weakening, we may soon see this pair breaking the 105 year lows with 100.00 seen as an initial serious psychological level.
However, the moment I would like to concentrate on GBPUSD, but first I would like to mentions that USD weakening may indeed be on its way to resume after the short term rebound based on what we see starting on majors. And despite the range on EURUSD and USDCHF, there are little but still some signs of USD going down and tis sentiment starting to come back on market, not mentioning the fall of USD against JPY and Cable (which I will talk about a bit later).
If we look at the 4 hour Euro chart, we already see that despite the range, we are already seeing lower lows after each and every selling and if we look at it, it is following the minor (for now) trend line which is in red on the chart.
This may end up with beginning of a stronger and more confident move north. But still, its early to talk about it, and once we see it, we may start talking about buying. Lets first allow the market show us some presence of serious sentiment.
Hello Everyone.
Well, last weeks' buying of EURUSD (after a break of a triangle) didn't fulfill expectations that it may start the renewed move north and we are still in a range with current top seen at 1.2450/60 area as silent_fish correctly told us, followed by the 1.2500/50 area as the next important level for confirmations that we are really starting to move somewhere.
Nevertheless, as I mentioned last week, some other major currencies should and are already starting to show some interesting developments. As we all probably know, the USDJPY has made quiet an impressive move by selling off the 112 zone down to mid 106s, and if we indeed see the resuming of USD weakening, we may soon see this pair breaking the 105 year lows with 100.00 seen as an initial serious psychological level.
However, the moment I would like to concentrate on GBPUSD, but first I would like to mentions that USD weakening may indeed be on its way to resume after the short term rebound based on what we see starting on majors. And despite the range on EURUSD and USDCHF, there are little but still some signs of USD going down and tis sentiment starting to come back on market, not mentioning the fall of USD against JPY and Cable (which I will talk about a bit later).
If we look at the 4 hour Euro chart, we already see that despite the range, we are already seeing lower lows after each and every selling and if we look at it, it is following the minor (for now) trend line which is in red on the chart.
This may end up with beginning of a stronger and more confident move north. But still, its early to talk about it, and once we see it, we may start talking about buying. Lets first allow the market show us some presence of serious sentiment.
Attachments
GBPUSD 240 min chart
On the 4 hour chart we see that the line which was supporting the move down was lately broken and now its moving north with more confidence than Euro is, but the 1.8500 - 1.8600 line is the one we should watch closely (which is a strong resistance - see next post with daily chart).
On the 4 hour chart we see that the line which was supporting the move down was lately broken and now its moving north with more confidence than Euro is, but the 1.8500 - 1.8600 line is the one we should watch closely (which is a strong resistance - see next post with daily chart).
Attachments
GBPUSD, Daily
If we look at the daily chart, we see the 1.85-1.86 resistance area even better and coming from early this year. Also there is a chance to see the reaction on possible head&shoulders pattern...
Why focus on GBPUSD? because it looks very promising, and if it manages to overcome the barrier, buying GBPUSD for retest of 1.9000 may be an option soon.
Strategy: At the moment it is still early (at least for me) to start buying, but I will look at how this week goes and the behavior around the 1.85-1.86 area in order to decide whether or not to start buying. It may still be a good sign if we close this week above 1.8550. Will see how it does this week.
To sum up, this week we wait. There is also a possibility that I will trade USDJPY down, but I am still watching it. This pair has moved with most confidence for now, but I am still watching it. I will try to post if I take any action.
For now that is it.
Good Trading, best luck,
Rezo Shmertz
If we look at the daily chart, we see the 1.85-1.86 resistance area even better and coming from early this year. Also there is a chance to see the reaction on possible head&shoulders pattern...
Why focus on GBPUSD? because it looks very promising, and if it manages to overcome the barrier, buying GBPUSD for retest of 1.9000 may be an option soon.
Strategy: At the moment it is still early (at least for me) to start buying, but I will look at how this week goes and the behavior around the 1.85-1.86 area in order to decide whether or not to start buying. It may still be a good sign if we close this week above 1.8550. Will see how it does this week.
To sum up, this week we wait. There is also a possibility that I will trade USDJPY down, but I am still watching it. This pair has moved with most confidence for now, but I am still watching it. I will try to post if I take any action.
For now that is it.
Good Trading, best luck,
Rezo Shmertz
Attachments
Newtron Bomb
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Hi rezo
Turned out to be a nice move on euro after all
Locked some profits in and see if i get my 1.18 (wishe list target lol :lol) first target of 1.20
Have a good day, hope you got your entry
Best wishes
NB
Turned out to be a nice move on euro after all
Locked some profits in and see if i get my 1.18 (wishe list target lol :lol) first target of 1.20
Have a good day, hope you got your entry
Best wishes
NB
Hi nb,
Glad you managed not only to enter, but already lock some profits. Probably I will Join you later - maybe as soon as early tmorrow. Lets hope we get a nice ride to 1.1850 at least.
What about cable and its usual temper... 500 pips in t days
Good Day to you mate
cheers
Glad you managed not only to enter, but already lock some profits. Probably I will Join you later - maybe as soon as early tmorrow. Lets hope we get a nice ride to 1.1850 at least.
What about cable and its usual temper... 500 pips in t days
Good Day to you mate
cheers
Went short on gbp/usd last night (around midnight) and picked up a nice 200 points by mid am.
Also went short on eur/usd this am @1.2100 but it seems to be showing strong resilience at this level for some reason. I expected it to follow gbp down but it's staying put for now. Will give the position some more time yet I think.
Also went short on eur/usd this am @1.2100 but it seems to be showing strong resilience at this level for some reason. I expected it to follow gbp down but it's staying put for now. Will give the position some more time yet I think.
Stopped out of short eur/usd for -77 points, off setting some of the profits from my gbp/usd short.
Still, a nice profit overall. Onwards and upwards!
May try another short on either of these pairs depending how it sets up, probably overnight now, looking for entry early tommorrow am.
Still, a nice profit overall. Onwards and upwards!
May try another short on either of these pairs depending how it sets up, probably overnight now, looking for entry early tommorrow am.
Move stop loss to entry level; price has been as low as 1.2113.
Seems like we have (?) a possible support line on daily charts, break of which may accelerate the downside movement, thus triggering 1.1960/70 as first level, followed by 1.1850/70.
I have switched my target for this trade to longer term and set t/p at 1.1870.
See you tomorrow,
Rezo
Seems like we have (?) a possible support line on daily charts, break of which may accelerate the downside movement, thus triggering 1.1960/70 as first level, followed by 1.1850/70.
I have switched my target for this trade to longer term and set t/p at 1.1870.
See you tomorrow,
Rezo
Attachments
Hello Everyone.
Well, euro retested the levels below 1.21 - the line I pointed to in the last chart seems to have some effect and in addition market remembers well the bounce of the 1.2050/60 area in the begining of this month. Memory is still fresh and that area is a support at the moment, which in case of a break may trigger 1.1960/70, followed by 1.1850/70.
Yesterdays short position was closed over the asian session for zero result, and even though we see quiet a nice rebound (euro is currently trading at 1.2175 after retesting yestersay high 1.22+), I will attempt to short Euro once again.
Dont know exactly whether or not will I be entering both short term small 50 pips target and for longer term target or only 50 pips tgt, but it most certianly looks like I may reenter this one. I will post.
Good Luck!
Well, euro retested the levels below 1.21 - the line I pointed to in the last chart seems to have some effect and in addition market remembers well the bounce of the 1.2050/60 area in the begining of this month. Memory is still fresh and that area is a support at the moment, which in case of a break may trigger 1.1960/70, followed by 1.1850/70.
Yesterdays short position was closed over the asian session for zero result, and even though we see quiet a nice rebound (euro is currently trading at 1.2175 after retesting yestersay high 1.22+), I will attempt to short Euro once again.
Dont know exactly whether or not will I be entering both short term small 50 pips target and for longer term target or only 50 pips tgt, but it most certianly looks like I may reenter this one. I will post.
Good Luck!
longer term hmmm, how long will you consider long term... come next friday we are likely to get bad non farm data from the US which can alter things somewhat, so in the near term a short may be recommended, but lets see how long this will last
happy trades
Jim
happy trades
Jim
