May 06 Cocoa

twalker said:
Looks like a break-out here. Lets hope it follows through, there was some scale up commercial selling in London this morning but there was also good fund support against it. It is nasty to hope that Ivory Coast devolves into total anarchy but currently it would be rather helpful.
Click to expand...

As someone whose parents are African, I always feel kinda guilty that Im hoping for unrest (the kidnapping of the Shell workers in Nigeria is a good case in point given that Im long Crude). The situation in Ivory Coast is extremely complex and I cant see an end to it soon. Not convinced it will have a long term detrimental effect on cocoa production though.
 
Zuke -

The situation in Ivory Coast is extremely complex and I cant see an end to it soon. Not convinced it will have a long term detrimental effect on cocoa production though.
Click to expand...


Long-term, maybe not, but short-term the arrivals from the bush could be well down - few growers will deliver in this climate.

..and the unrest IS spreading to the other towns and cities, including those in the Cocoa-producing regions:

Protests, pullout rock Ivory Coast peace process

http://za.today.reuters.com/news/Ne...IDST_0_OZATP-IVORYCOAST-PROTESTS-20060117.XML
 
I am in London rather than NYBOT
Bad news is certainly good news.
 
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Let's take a look at London Cocoa - for those trading it (twalker, et al)

The Monthly Chart shows a classic long-term bottom formation - this thing really only has one was to go, LONG-TERM, in my opinion. You can see where it could very well go...


The New York chart is a little different, in that the basing has occured at a higher level, and has been somewhat choppier/more volatile.

Either way, if the Ivory Coast is heading for all-out war, as in 2002, that could very well be the spark which ignites a second long-term rally like we saw in 2001-2003.
 

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Juast saw headline on Reuters that civilians have been killed in clashes between UN troops and anti-UN protestors. Market moves accordingly.
 
Ivory Coast Cocoa Shippers Pessimistic As Crisis Deepens[/U

DJ Ivory Coast Cocoa Shippers Pessimistic As Crisis Deepens
8:29 AM, January 18, 2006

ABIDJAN (Dow Jones)--Cocoa exporters in Ivory Coast said they were
pessimistic about the short-term future of the world's top cocoa grower, which
has been paralyzed by angry mobs since Monday.

"It's not looking very good," said one exporter, talking from his Abidjan
home.

"All depends on how the U.N. and Unicorn are going to respond," he said,
adding he had no immediate plans to leave the country.

Unicorn is the code name for the 4,000-strong French military presence in
Ivory Coast, who act as a rapid intervention force to back up the 7,000 U.N.
peacekeepers.

The ruling FPI party and militant youth movements close to it have been
protesting against what FPI leader Pascal Affi N'guessan called "the
recolonization" of the country, spearheaded by the U.N. and France.

Exporters fear a repetition of events in November 2004, when mobs attacked
foreign, mainly French, homes and businesses and 8,000 expatriates were
evacuated.

"I can't help thinking of the worst case scenario. That is that hundreds
storm and loot my home," said an exporter based in the southwestern port of San
Pedro.

Another exporter said he was worried the U.N. and French troops would be
unable to contain mobs throughout the city.

A person close to U.S.-owned ADM said its Ivory Coast staff had been
evacuated already to Abidjan. France's Bollore earlier this week evacuated its
French employees to Lome, Togo.

SAGA, the leading French-owned transit and handling company at the ports,
said it was talking to parent company Bollore about evacuating expatriates.



-By Vincent t'Sas; Dow Jones Newswires; +225 22416436;
vincent.t'[email protected]
 
NY looks ready to accelerate out of the recent uptrend channel.

The breakout of the downtrend line tagets 1775 (as drawn)
 

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Sounds as if those boys have stopped shooting at each other. Our man in Ivory Coast said it is much quieter today but he has heard some gunshots. Nothing on the scale of previous days yet.
Quite a pullback with oproducer selling on Liffe open but probably worth hanging in there for now, just gonna be a bumpy ride.
 
Ryan Jones Options Course -Futuresource.com

Hi Guys,
Sorry to throw this one in here. Does anyone know of this fellow and if his course is worth buying? He has a track record in buying/selling options with a 90% plus success rate. He is recommending trades in Cotton, Orange juice and the like at the moment and seems to know when an option is a good price etc.

I lost money years ago trading options with Redmayne Bentley and gave up. I still lose money spread betting so am about to give up. Any views would be welcome. Thanks!
 
I read a good book by him on money management once but otherwise no comment.
OJ was a great sell, I piled in yesterday tanking the open got shorts on at 119.25. Daily has textbook Head and shoulders targetting 105-110 OJH6.
NY cocoa this afternoon could get hairy, it is such a nasty sticky product.
 
Reuters is reporting things getting back to normal and our guy in Ivory coast said that road blocks are being cleared so it looks to be getting back to normal. I guess this sell off is the rmoval of the war premium. Will have to wait and see where European produces come in to buy. Better be sure to have some sort fo stop in place as this market can be pretty nasty when specs panic.
 
I hear that on dip there was good support in London this mornign and from commercials. Actually w are being recommended by a large trading house to buy into these dips...
 
Cocoa collapses..again...

Trendline broken, massive range down.

Perceptions of peace in Ivory Coast? Or just the realisation of what many knew all along..ie that Cocoa production would be unaffected.

Flat. For now. ;)
 

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zuke said:
As someone whose parents are African, I always feel kinda guilty that Im hoping for unrest (the kidnapping of the Shell workers in Nigeria is a good case in point given that Im long Crude). The situation in Ivory Coast is extremely complex and I cant see an end to it soon. Not convinced it will have a long term detrimental effect on cocoa production though.
Click to expand...

As I said earlier Dave..there was never any danger to long term production. There are too many geopolitical factors to stop this happening. Furthermore, France & Nigeria would never allow full scale civil war to break out in Ivory Coast. I havent looked at the technicals yet..
 
I was taken out of London at 880 licking wounds. Cocoa is not the beast we hoped. Still...Coffee is looking like it is getting ready to break up again and what about that Sugar!!!!
 
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