DJ World 05-06 Cocoa Stocks Down By 106,000 Tons - Fortis
7:01 AM, January 16, 2006
LONDON (Dow Jones)--World cocoa stocks for 2005-06 (October-September) are
now forecast to be down by 106,000 metric tons on the year at 1.484 million
tons, analyst Jonathan Parkman said in the Fortis Commodity Derivatives
Research January cocoa market outlook, released Monday.
This is trimmed back by 8,000 tons from the analyst's December estimate,
which showed a 114,000-ton fall in stocks.
Parkman now forecasts 2005-06 world cocoa output at 3.349 million tons, up
32,000 tons from his December estimate. The bulk of this rise stems from an
upward revision in the Ivory Coast mid-crop by 25,000 tons to 275,000 tons.
Parkman's 2005-06 forecast for the Ivory Coast main-crop was left unchanged
at 1.080 million tons, not including 70,000 tons that arrived at export ports
ahead of the 2005-06 marketing season.
"The only significant revision that we have made to our seasonal forecast for
production concerns mid-crop production in Ivory Coast which has benefited from
benign weather conditions," said the report.
Partially offsetting the rise in output, Parkman's figures also showed an
upward revision in world 2005-06 cocoa grinding of 24,000 tons to 3.422 million
tons.
While the report cited adequate world cocoa stock levels for the near-term,
it added a further decrease in supplies could be seen in the long-term due to
strong consumption levels and a lack of capacity to expand production.
"The long-term rate of cocoa consumption growth is showing no signs of
slowing," said the report. Meanwhile the world's largest cocoa producer, the
Ivory Coast, is "struggling to expand production" due to political uncertainty
and low farm prices.
-By Lisa Kallal, Dow Jones Newswires; (4420) 7842 9415;
[email protected]
) is on a good upswing. This is backed up by today's release of 2005 Eurpoean cocoa grindings, which are UP 5.3% from 2004 (at 1.16m).
