Market Summary and Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

[MahiFX]

The Daily Score - 15 May 2014

Market Summary and Technical Analysis

A weaker Cable was the main feature of trading in the majors yesterday as it continued its recent slide from its 2014 highs near 1.7000 set last week to trade down to 1.6753. The B.O.E.’s quarterly Inflation Report failed to affirm the expectations of many who were anticipating the Bank would signal a greater readiness to tighten policy from the current record-low 0.5% Bank Rate which has been in place since March 2009. The JPY firmed to highs of 101.66 against the dollar (101.85 currently) as expectations diminish that the BOJ will imminently introduce fresh monetary stimulus. The Aussie rally continued in early trading before peaking at .9410, the retracement has so far held .9360. Market focus today will center on Fed chair Janet Yellen’s address to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. The final reading of Euro-zone inflation for April and U.S inflation numbers also for April are likely to be the highlights on the data calendar.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: APRIL EURO-ZONE INFLATION AWAITED TODAY

Pivot: 1.37146, R1 1.37311, R2 1.37478, R3 1.3781, S1 1.36979, S2 1.36814, S3 1.36482 (All pivost are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Minor/Medium 1.3670/75, 1.3640/45, Minor 1.3620/25.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.3740/45, Minor 1.3775/90 zone, 1.3805/10.

View: We favour waiting for a bounce to sell, 1.3740 and 1.3770, small positions initially, wide stops above 1.3810 make the trade tough, targeting 1.3670 and 1.3640.

Technical Comment: The dailies have held their ground although are still weak (the Stochs are o/sold), the 4H's are firming (and include a bullish Macd/signal line cross), the 1H's are mainly improving (Stochs aside).

GBP/USD Intraday: THE CABLE WEAKENS ON A DOVISH BOE INFLATION ASSESSMENT

Pivot: 1.67987, R1 1.68432, R2 1.6919, R3 1.70393, S1 1.67229, S2 1.66784, S3 1.65581.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 1.6740/45, Very Minor 1.6715/20, 1.6680/85.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium 1.6815/25, Very Minor 1.6835/45.

View: The Cable is friendless at the moment and more downside looks likely. We prefer to trade elsewhere, aggressive sellers could target 1.6780/85, 1.6810/15 for more conservative players.

Technical Comment: The dailies have continued to deteriorate (the Stochs are o/sold), the 4H's are heavy (the Stochs and RSI are hovering in the o/sold bound), the 1H's are moving higher.

USD/JPY Intraday: THE JPY FIRMS TO LOWS BELOW 101.70 AGAINST THE USD

Pivot: 101.965, R1 102.207, S2 102.528, S3 103.092, S1 101.644, S2 101.401, S3 100.838.

Support Levels: Very Minor 101.65/70, Minor 101.40/45, Major 101.20/30.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 102.00/10, Minor 102.35/40, Very Minor 102.50/55, Medium 102.65/80 zone

View: The Usd/jpy slide wasn't surprising but its tougher to call today. 101.45-102.05 looks most likely, but better selling interest will reside at 102.30/40.

Technical Comment: The dailies are easing although lack momentum, the 4H's are mixed, the 1H's are firming (the DMI aside, the ADX is low)

AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE FAILS TO HOLD ABOVE 94 CENTS

Pivot: .93809, R1 .94072, R2 .94354, R3 .94899, S1 .93527, S2 .93264, S3 .92719.

Support Levels: Minor .9345/50, Medium .9315/30 zone, Minor .9295/00.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor .9410/15, Minor .9420/25, Medium .9460/65.

View: The Aussie couldn't hold above 94c as expected, we see more trading between .9345 and .9410 as being most likely, we favour shorts overall for .9330 and .9315, stops above .9430

Technical Comment: The dailies are mainly tracking sideways (although the Stochs are easing), the 4H's are heavy (although the ADX reading is low), the 1H's are mixed.

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[MahiFX]

The Daily Score - 19 May 2014

Market Summary and Technical Analysis

Muted movements in the majors on Friday in a very quiet session that saw the Euro trade down to 1.3685 (highs 1.3727), the Cable rally continued to 1.6840 whilst the Aussie traded .9335-.9375. Property headlines dominated the news, Chinese property data showed further evidence of a deflating bubble. The number of cities reporting rising prices declined to 44/70 from 56/70 in March with 8 of the 70 reporting price falls, double the March number. The BOE Governor Mark Carney also identifies surging house prices as the biggest risk to the U.K. economy, hinting at a macro-prudential response. U.S. data releases on Friday were mixed, April housing starts were notably stronger than expectations (13.2% MoM vs. 3.6% exp.) whilst the University of Michigan Confidence survey disappointed (81.8 vs. 84.5 exp.)

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: EURO DIRECTION-LESS IN FRIDAY/MONDAY TRADE

Pivot: 1.37021, R1 1.37187, R2 1.37436, R3 1.37851, S1 1.36772, S2 1.36606, S3 1.36191 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 1.3680/85, Medium/Major 1.3640/45, Minor 1.3620/25.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium 1.3740/45, 1.3775/90 zone, 1.3805/10.

View: The Euro looks likely to drift today with the market lacking inspiration 1.3680/1.3740.

Technical Comment: The dailies are mixed (DI- is above DI+ and the ADX is rising/high), the 4H's are edging higher, the 1H's are strong (the Stochs are o/bght).

GBP/USD Intraday: CARNEY WARNS OF RISK POSED BY SURGING U.K. HOUSE PRICES.

Pivot: 1.68124, R1 1.68421, R2 1.68705, R3 1.69266, S1 1.6784, S2 1.67543, S3 1.66962.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 1.6800/05, 1.6775/80, Minor/Medium 1.6715/30 zone.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.6835/45, 1.6875/85, 1.6900/05.

View: We prefer to leave the Cable in favour of the Aussie and Usd/jpy, it looks a bit firmer today but the dull Asian session gives little away. 1.6780/1.6880 looks likely pre tommorrows data.

Technical Comment: The dailies are led by firm Stochs and an RSI edging higher but are mixed overall, the 4H's are mainly firm (the stochs are easing from the o/bght zone), the 1H's are tracking sideways.

USD/JPY Intraday: USD/JPY LIFELESS ON FRIDAY

Pivot: 101.515, R1 101.666, R2 101.826, R3 102.137, S1 101.355, S2 101.204, S3 100.893.

Support Levels: Major/Critical 101.20/30, Medium 100.70/80, Minor/Medium 100.55/65.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 101.65/70, Very Minor 102.00/10, Minor 102.35/40, Very Minor 102.50/55.

View: The Usd/jpy has been particularly dull. The 101.20/30 area looks pivotal . Will look to sell short at 101.15, reverse stop above 101.75. On the topside we look to sell small at 101.65/70, waiting till 102.05/10 and 102.30 to add larger, stops above 102.40.

Technical Comment: The dailies are soft (the Stochs most so, the ADX is low indicating low momentum), the 4H's are edging higher, the 1H's are firm.

AUD/USD Intraday: RANGE TRADERS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE

Pivot: .93569, R1 .93789, R2 .9393, R3 .94291, S1 .93428, S2 .93208, S3 .92847.

Support Levels: Medium/Major .9315/30 zone, Minor .9295/00.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor .9375/80, Very Minor .9390/95, Minor .9410/15, .9420/25.

View: Unchanged from Friday, The Aussie looks soft but lacks momentum to extend lower. We will look to sell at .9370/75 (small) for a return to .9330/35, adding larger at .9390,.9405/10, stops above .9430.

Technical Comment: The dailies are soggy and include a recent Macd/signal cross sell alert, the 4H's are mixed/tracking sideways, the 1H's are uninspiring.

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[MahiFX]

The Daily Score - 21 May 2014

Market Summary by Simon Coulter of MahiFX

The Aud/usd was again the feature currency of the majors yesterday continuing its rapid decline that had started in Asia where model and momentum stop sellers were seen on the break of .9320. The Aussie has traded down to .9217 in Asian trade (from ~.9300) as the market absorbed the combined news of potential S&P downgrades, lower iron ore prices (-7.5% in May so far) and comments from the assistant RBA governor who suggested that AUD supportive capital flows have mostly concluded. The JPY firmed again to highs of 101.14 against the dollar having earlier weakened to 101.60 yesterday. The BOJ kept their interest rates unchanged at 0.1% as expected during the Asian session. The Cable rallied to a high of 1.6864 on a stronger than expected April core CPI release (2.0% YoY, vs. 1.8% exp). Market focus today will center on the BOE and FOMC minutes, U.K. retail sales data also features.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: THE EURO CONTINUES TO SEEK FRESH DIRECTION

Pivot: 1.36978, R1 1.37176, R2 1.37339, R3 1.3770, S1 1.36815, S2 1.36617, S3 1.36256 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Very Minor 1.3675/85, Medium/Major 1. 3640/45, Minor 1.3620/25.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium 1.3735/45, 1.3775/90 zone, 1.3805/10.

View: The Euro needs to clear 1.3740 and 1.3675 for fresh direction, another rangy day looks likely and we aren't prepared to call the break direction.

Technical Comment: Like yesterday the dailies are still mixed, the 4H's are firming (esp. the stochs), the 1H's are mainly edging up (stochs aside)

GBP/USD Intraday: CABLE LARGELY UNCHANGED DESPITE HIGHER CPI OUT-TURN

Pivot: 1.68359, R1 1.68692, R2 1.68996, R3 1.69634, S1 1.68054, S2 1.67721, S3 1.67081.

Support Levels: Very Minor 1.6800/05, 1.6775/80, Minor/Medium 1.6715/30 zone.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.6875/85, 1.6900/05.

View: More action within the 1.6800/1.6870 range looks most likely today and like the Euro it is not easy to call the next move.

Technical Comment: The dailies are still improving moderately, the 4H's are reasonably firm (the Stochs and RSI are mainly flat), the 1H's are easing (Stochs aside).

USD/JPY Intraday: NO CHANGE FROM BOJ

Pivot: 101.373, R1 101.555, R2 101.782, R3 102.191, S1 101.146, S2 100.964, S3 100.555.

Support Levels: Minor 101.00/10, Medium 100.70/80, Minor/Medium 100.55/65.

Resistance Levels: Minor 101.65/70, 102.00/10, 102.35/40, Very Minor 102.50/55.

View: The Usd/jpy looks heavy on all counts but buyers ahead of 101.00 are making the slide very slow going. With talk of barrier interest at 101.00 sellers may wish to wait for a break of here. On the topside we expect selling interest in the 101.45/60 zone to cap. Watch for BOJ commentary.

Technical Comment: The dailies are universally soft (the ADX is rising), the 4H's are also soft, the 1H's complete the negative Usd/jpy outlook.

AUD/USD Intraday: AUSSIE SLIDE CONTINUES ON RBA MINUTES/LOWER IRON ORE PX'S

Pivot: .92734, R1 .93053, R2 .93676, R3 .94618, S1 .92111, S2 .91792, S3 .9085.

Support Levels: Minor .9215/25, .9200/05, Very Minor .9165/70.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor .9250/55, .9280/85, Minor .9295/05, Minor/Medium .9315/30 zone.

View: The Aussie has had a terrible last 24 hours. We are not fussed in chasing it here as many short term tech's are o/sold, we think it is capable of a bounce to .9260 and perhaps .9280. On the downside .9200/10 should see good demand on the day. Short side favoured.

Technical Comment: The dailies are heavy (the Stochs are entering the o/sold bound), the 4H's are heavy (both the RSI and Stochs are in the o/sold bound, the ADX is high), the 1H's are starting to improve.

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[MahiFX]

The Daily Score - 02 June 2014

Market Summary by MahiFX

The Aussie dollar was the big mover in Asian trade as it reversed much of last weeks gains on the back of disappointing April Building Approvals data which showed a 5.6% drop over the month (vs. +2% exp.) and 1.1% over the year (exp. +12.3%), Q1 inventories fell 1.7% (-0.4% exp). Sharp falls in consumer confidence since the hard-hitting budget helped contribute to falls in house prices in Australia’s capital cities for the first time in 12 months according to the Rismark home value index (-1.9% in May). The Aussie has slumped to .9262 lows from .9317 so far. The Euro and Pound both firmed marginally against the USD on Friday (Euro highs 1.3650, Cable 1.6777), whilst the USD firmed against he JPY to highs around 102.08 in Asian trade today. Markit Manufacturing PMI data will feature today in the U.K., U.S. and Europe, the RBA interest rate decision will feature in Asian trade tomorrow where no change to the 2.5% cash rate is expected.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: PMI DATA AWAITED, 1.3650 HAS CAPPED SO FAR

Pivot: 1.36273, R1 1.36565, R2 1.3679, R3 1.37307, S1 1.36048, S2 1.35756, S3 1.35239 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Minor 1.3580/90, Minor/Medium 1.3560/65, 1.3545/50.

Resistance Levels: Minor 1.3645/50, Minor/Medium 1.3670/75.

View: The daily tech's are improving a touch, longs could lever off 1.3580/90 although we would prefer to trade elsewhere, we would be surprised to see 1.3670/75 cleared today, shorts preferred overall.

Technical Comment: The daily tech's are beginning to imrpove (led by the Stochs, the ADX is starting to decline, -DI also), the 4H's are easing (the MACD aside), the 1H's are mixed.

GBP/USD Intraday: 1.6780 CAPS THE CABLE BOUNCE FOR THE TIME BEING

Pivot: 1.67481, R1 1.67825, R2 1.68114, R3 1.68747, S1 1.67192, S2 1.66848, S3 1.66215.

Support Levels: Very Minor 1.6730/40, 1.6690/95, Minor 1.6680/85, Very Minor 1.6655/65 (61.8% Fib retrace. of 1.6457-1.6996, old supp./res.).

Resistance Levels: Minor 1.6780/85, Very Minor 1.6800/05, Minor 1.6815/20.

View: The Cable has been rejected off 1.6780, if short (near there) we would cover small near here, stops on the remainder above 1.6820 for 1.6695, downside momentum is waning so we don't expect too much for now.

Technical Comment: The dailies remain soft (although the RSI/Stochs have ticked higher), the 4H's are easing (MACD aside), the 1H's are heavy.

USD/JPY Intraday: JPY SOFTER IN ASIAN TRADE

Pivot: 101.68, R1 101.879, R2 102.043, R3 102.406, S1 101.516, S2 101.317, S3 100.954

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 101.80/90, 101.65/70, Very Minor 101.40/50, 101.30/35.

Resistance Levels: Minor 102.10/15, Minor/Medium 102.35/40, Medium 102.65/80 zone.

View: The Usd/jpy has been firm but we would be surprised if this rally could extend beyond 102.40, we will move short stops to above there. Late shorts could lever of this level.

Technical Comment: The dailies have turned higher from Friday, the 4H's are firming (the Stochs are o/bght), the 1H's are beginning to ease from o/bght lvls.

AUD/USD Intraday: AUSSIE SLUMPS ON WEAK BUILDING APPROVALS DATA

Pivot: .93084, R1 .93284, R2 .93488, R3 .93892, S1 .9288, S2 .9268, S3 .92276

Support Levels: Very Minor .9245/50, .9230/35, Medium/Major .9200/10.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor .9285/90, Medium .9320/30, Very Minor .9345/50.

View: The Aussie has had a poor session, the momentum is currently lower but we would be surprised to see sub. 9230 today (.9245/50 most likely), rallies should see selling at .9285/90. .9200/10 is major support.

Technical Comment: The dailies have turned lower (the MACD is still flat), the 4H's point to a heavy tone, the 1H's are heavy (although the Stochs are o/sold).

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[MahiFX]

The Daily Score - 04 June 2014

Market Summary

Predictable trading ranges in most of the majors. The Euro continued to hold the 1.3585 level after Euro-zone inflation rose just 0.5% YoY in May, this came as little surprise after Mondays weak German inflation print. Thursday’s ECB policy meeting is firmly in focus as the market waits for which additional credit easing measures will be introduced. The Euro rally has again failed ahead of 1.3650. U.S. factory orders beat expectations rising 0.7% in April (0.5% exp.), the March number was also revised 0.4 ppts higher. The Cable rallied to the 1.6780 level again but has reverted to 1.6725 in Asian trade. The Usd/jpy has continued to rally peaking at 102.80 so far. The Aussie had a boost on firmer than expected 2014Q1 GDP data, which was led by mining and construction gains (+1.1% QoQ vs. 1.0% exp.) rallying above yesterdays .9287 highs to .9297 before retreating to .9265 currently

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: ECB THE FOCUS FROM HERE

Pivot: 1.36209, R1 1.36546, R2 1.36817, R3 1.37425, S1 1.35938, S2 1.35601, S3 1.34993 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Medium 1.3580/90, Minor/Medium 1.3560/65, 1. 3545/50.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium 1.3645/50, 1.3670/75.

View: The Euro has respected ranges over the last 24 hours, we have a similar view to yesterday and continue to think the Euro will be largely contained within the range pre the ECB.

Technical Comment: The dailies continue to drift higher from a soft base, the 4H's are easing (MACD aside), the 1H's are heavy (rising ADX).

GBP/USD Intraday: SERVICES PMI DATA IN FOCUS TODAY

Pivot: 1.67539, R1 1.67771, R2 1.68053, R3 1.68566,S1 1.67258, S2 1.67026, S3 1.66513.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 1.6715/20, Very Minor 1.6690/95, Minor 1.6680/85, Very Minor 1.6655/65 (61.8% Fib retrace. of 1.6457-1.6996, old supp./res.).

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium 1.6780/85, Very Minor 1.6800/05, Minor 1.6815/20.

View: Like the Euro the Cable has conformed to the recent range although looks soft. Whilst we see 1.6660 as the target the trade makes little sense when stops need to be above 1.6785 and support at 1.6690 would need to break also.

Technical Comment: The dailies continue to ebb lower (Stochs aside), the 4H's point to a weak outlook (watch for a Macd/signal line cross sell alert), the 1H's are heavy.

USD/JPY Intraday: THE USD RALLY FAILS TO PAUSE, 102.80 HIGHS SO FAR

Pivot: 102.444, R1 102.616, R2 102.725, R3 103.006, S1 102.335, S2 102.163, S3 101.882.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 102.25/30, 101.80/90, 101.65/70, Very Minor 101.40/50,

Resistance Levels: Medium 102.75/80, Extremely Minor 102.85/90, Very Minor 103.00/05.

View: Whilst the Usd/jpy looks strong it has often disappointed up here. Buyers may want to wait for a retracement to 102.25/35 rather than chasing here. A break of 103.00/05 brings 103.40 into view.

Technical Comment: The dailies are strong (the ADX is rising, the stochs are o/bght), the 4H's are strong (both the RSI and Stochs are o/bght), the 1H's complete the strong tech outlook.

AUD/USD Intraday: GDP SPIKE SHORT LIVED

Pivot: .92609, R1 .9292, R2 .93183, R3 .93757, S1 .92346, S2 .92035, S3 .91461.

Support Levels: Minor .9230/35, Medium/Major .9200/10.

Resistance Levels:Minor .9285/90, Medium .9320/30.

View: The Aussie looks happy rattling around in ranges. We see .9230/45 forming a base, .9295/.9315 forming a top, stops below .9200 and above .9330.

Technical Comment: The dailies are mixed, the 4H's are lifting a touch (lack momentum), the 1H's are mainly flat (the Stochs are easing).

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[MahiFX]

The Daily Score - 05 June 2014

Market Summary

Range trading mode was again the theme yesterday ahead of todays’ key ECB monetary policy meeting. Possible credit easing measures which the ECB may adopt today to help redress low Euro-zone inflation include amongst others, non-sterilization of SMP holdings, fresh broad-based asset purchases, cuts to the refi-rate (currently 0.25%) and the deposit rate (currently 0%), an extension to the existing long-term refinancing operations (LTRO) and/or a new LRTO that incentivizes banks to lend to SMEs. The Euro currently trades at 1.3600 from 1.3640 highs yesterday. The Usd/jpy was unable to top yesterdays ~102.80 Asian session highs and trades at 102.55 currently. The Cable traded 1.6698-1.6768, the market expects no policy change from the BOE meeting today. The Aussie consolidated in a .9258-.9289 range since our last report. Focus post the ECB will turn to Friday’s key U.S. NF Payrolls report where forecasts center on a gain of ~200,000 jobs.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: ITS ALL ABOUT THE ECB TODAY FOR THE EURO

Pivot: 1.36116, R1 1.36265, R2 1.3654, R3 1.36965, S1 1.3584, S2 1.35691, S3 1.35267 (All pivots are daily 5pm NY).

Support Levels: Medium 1.3580/90, Minor/Medium 1.3560/65, 1.3545/50.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium 1.3645/50, 1.3670/75.

View: Will stay out with the ECB, 1.3580/85, and 1.3650 are key but the market could easily break in one or both directions over the announcement.

Technical Comment: The dailies are similar to yesterday (drifting), the 4H's are soft, the 1H's are edging higher.

GBP/USD Intraday: BOE UNLIKELY TO SURPRISE

Pivot: 1.67349, R1 1.67709, R2 1.68049, R3 1.68749, S1 1.67009, S2 1.66649, S3 1.65949.

Support Levels: Minor/Medium 1.6690/95, Minor 1.6680/85, Very Minor 1.6655/65 (61.8% Fib retrace. of 1.6457-1.6996, old supp./res.).

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium 1.6780/85, Very Minor 1.6800/05, Minor 1.6815/20.

View: The Cable is still very much locked between 1.6690 and 1.6780/85, the price action looks mildly positive but realistically the Euro and Eur/gbp flows will dictate today. Watch BOE also.

Technical Comment: The dailies have improved a touch (particularly the stochs), the 4H's are mixed, the 1H's are strong.

USD/JPY Intraday: THE USD/JPY EASES IN ASIAN TRADE

Pivot: 102,661, R1 102.883, R2 103.017, R3 103.373, S1 102.527, S2 102.305, S3 101.949.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 102.40/45, 102.25/30, 102.15/20, 101.80/90, 101.65/70, Very Minor 101.40/50,

Resistance Levels: Medium 102.75/80, Extremely Minor 102.85/90, Very Minor 103.00/05.

View: Caution near 102.80 was warranted, we favour shorts now with stops above 102.85 though would like to see yesterdays lows break properly (102.43), 102.15/20 is the first target, 101.85/95 next.

Technical Comment: The dailies are still firm (but haven't gained since yest, the Stochs are still o/bght), the 4H's are deteriorating, the 1H's are heavy.

AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE CONSOLIDATES BELOW YESTERDAYS GDP HIGHS.

Pivot: .92764, R1 .9300, R2 .93232, R3 .9370, S1 .92532, S2 .92296, S3 .91828.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor .9255/60, .9240/45, Minor .9230/35, Medium/Major .9200/10.

Resistance Levels: Minor .9285/90, Medium .9320/30.

View: This move looks likely to press on to .9315/20 again, .9255/60 should see buying interest on the day.

Technical Comment: The dailies are largely flat with low momentum, the 4H's are similar (the Stochs/RSI are edging up), the 1H's are strong.

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[MahiFX]

The Daily Score - 09 June 2014

Market Summary

Some reasonable movement in the majors on Friday despite the May U.S. NF Payrolls coming in around expectations at +217,000, the unemployment rate remained at 6.3% (6.4 % exp). Equities continued their rally on the news and the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell below 11 for its lowest close since 2007. The Euro traded between 1.3620 and 1.3677, the Cable 1.6780 and 1.6845, and the Aussie .9319-.9358. The JPY has slid off Friday’s highs against the USD (102.11) to be trading around 102.55 (102.65 lows) as the Japanese current account surplus in April fell to 187B JPY compared to the 288B JPY forecast. In the fiscal year ended March, the excess shrank to its lowest on record. The Japanese economy grew at an annualized 6.7% in the 3 months to March, the fastest pace since Q3 2011.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: THE EURO WHIPS AROUND 1.3650 AFTER THE NFP

Pivot: 1.3647, R1 1.3673, R2 1.37031, R3 1.37592, S1 1.36169, S2 1.35909, S3 1.35348. (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Minor 1.3620/25, 1.3580/85.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium 1.3670/80, Very Minor 1.3700/05, Minor 1.3730/40.

View: We are thinking Fridays ranges ahould be in play again today, 1.3620.1.3670-80, no real bias on direction.

Technical Comment: The dailies are little changed from Friday (Mixed, Stochs are the firmest), the 4H's are flat, the 1H's are flat (the Stochs and DI+ are ticking up).

GBP/USD Intraday: THE CABLE CONTAINED POST THE NFP

Pivot: 1.68096, R1 1.6838, R2 1.68745, R3 1.69395, S1 1.67731, S2 1.67446, S3 1.66797.

Support Levels: Minor 1.6780/85, Extremely Minor 1.6760/65.

Resistance Levels: Minor 1.6850/60, 1.6880/85.

View: We are looking for a quiet session with 1.6780 (1.6760 max.)/1.6850 again wrapping it up. Small up bias here, stops under 1.6720 (under 1.6690 best).

Technical Comment: The dailies are firm although the ADX is low suggesting little momentum, the 4H's are beginning to ease lower, the 1H's are mainly flat.

USD/JPY Intraday: THE JPY WEAKENS ON REDUCED SAFE HAVEN DEMAND/DATA

Pivot: 102.40, R1 102.681, R2 102.894, R3 103.388, S1 102.187, S2 101.906, S3 101.412.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 102.40/45, Very Minor 102.10/15, Extremely Minor 101.80/90, 101.65/70, Very Minor 101.40/50.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 102.65/70, Medium 102.75/85, Extremely Minor 102.85/90, Very Minor 103.00/05.

View: The Jpy met our first target but not the second on Friday. We continue to like 102.75/85 to cap but now favour buying dips targeting 102.30/35, stops under 101.80, tight <102.00.

Technical Comment: The dailies are reasonably firm although the Stochs have eased, the 4H's are drifting sideways with low momemtum, the 1H's are taking on a soft tone.

AUD/USD Intraday: AUSSIE FIRMS AS RISK SENTIMENT STAYS POSITIVE AFTER NFP

Pivot: .93368, R1 .93543, R2 .9376, R3 .94152, S1 .93151, S2 .92976, S3 .92584.

Support Levels: Very Minor .9310/20, Extremely Minor .9300/05, Minor .9285/90.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor .9355/60, Minor/Medium .9375/90 zone, Minor .9395/00, .9405/10.

View: We will look to remain small short and add near 70 with stops above .9400, for a return to .9330, and .9320.

Technical Comment: The dailies are moderately firm, the 4H's are also firming , the 1H's are firm (the Stochs are entering o/bght levels).

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[MahiFX]

The Daily Score - 10 June 2014

Market Summary

A subdued days’ trading yesterday in the majors as the data calendar was largely empty. The Euro had the best moves where if was seen weakening of highs around 1.3670 to 1.3582 lows. The Sentix survey of Eurozone investor confidence unexpectedly declined to 8.5 (13.3 expected), thin markets exacerbated the down-leg. The Aussie weakened off ~.9363 highs to .9338 whilst the Cable weakened in tandem with the Euro from its early highs around 1.6832, support at 1.6780 has continued to contain the down-move. U.K. Industrial Production data will feature today, the NIESR May U.K. GDP estimate will also be released.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: RESISTANCE ABOVE 1.3670 CONTINUES TO CAP

Pivot: 1.36152, R1 1.36477, R2 1.37014, R3 1.37876, S1 1.35615, S2 1.3529, S3 1.34428 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Minor 1.3580/85, Extremely Minor 1.3560/65, 1.3545/50, 1.3520/25, Minor 1.3500/05

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.3620/25, Medium 1.3670/80, Very Minor 1.3700/05.

View: The Euro looks heavy, we are looking for 1.3620 to contain rallies but the real res. is near 1.3670, whilst 1.3575/80 holds range trading could ensue.

Technical Comment: The dailies continue to have a weak tone (the ADX is high), the 4H's are also heavy (the ADX is increasing), the 1H's are soft.

GBP/USD Intraday: THE CABLE EASES FROM HIGHS ABOVE 1.6830 IN LINE WITH THE EURO

Pivot: 1.68066, R1 1.68293, R2 1.68551, R3 1.69036, S1 1.67808, S2 1.67581, S3 1.67096.

Support Levels: Minor 1.6780/85, Extremely Minor 1.6760/65, Minor 1.6720/30.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.6830/35, Minor/Medium 1.6850/60, Minor 1.6880/85.

View: The Cable may make a break on todays data but the odds still seem to favour containment within 1.6760/1.6850. No real bias here.

Technical Comment: The dailies are edging higher (the ADX is still very low), the 4H's are turning higher, the 1H's are strong (the Stochs are o/bght).

SD/JPY Intraday: USD/JPY UNCHANGED IN QUIET TRADE

Pivot: 102.519, R1 102.66, R2 102.792, R3 103.065, S1 102.387, S2 102.246, S3 101.973.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 102.30/35, Very Minor 102.10/15, Extremely Minor 101.80/90, 101.65/70, Very Minor 101.40/50.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 102.65/70, Medium 102.75/85, Extremely Minor 102.85/90, Very Minor 103.00/05.

View: The Usd/jpy has taken on a heavy tone, rallies looked to be capped in the 102.65/80 zone, whilst the downside should see 102.10 hold, we expect the next 48 hours to be contained within.

Technical Comment: The dailies are mainly drifting lower but lack momentum (the ADX is also sliding), the 4H's point to downside pressure, the 1H's are heavy.

AUD/USD Intraday: AUSSIE TRACKS SIDEWAYS IN QUIET TRADE, OFFERS ABOVE .9360 CAP.

Pivot: .93514, R1 .93683, R2 .93804, R3 .94094, S1 .93393, S2 .93224, S3 .92934.

Support Levels: Very Minor .9330/35, .9310/20, Extremely Minor .9300/05, Minor .9285/90.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor .9360/65, Minor/Medium .9375/90 zone, Minor .9395/00, .9405/10.

View: We continue to think rallies will struggle to top the .9365/80 zone, stops above .9400 on shorts, first supp. is ahead of .9335 then .9315/20.

Technical Comment: The dailies are firm (the Stochs are o/bght), the 4H's are ticking higher, the 1H's are mixed.

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[MahiFX]

Market Summary

The Euro slide continued in trade yesterday, weak support at 1.3580/85 gave way as the market continued to respond to the ECB’s policy loosening measures (lows 1.3521). The Cable eased in sympathy from ~1.6817 highs to its 1.6737 lows. U.K industrial output rose 0.4% in April from the month prior matching median Bloomberg expectations. The Aud/usd continued to firm peaking at .9390 so far, whilst the Usd/jpy had another quiet session drifting to lows around 102.21. Data releases today include the April U.K. ILO Unemployment Rate (6.7% exp. from 6.8%), Australian employment numbers for May (+10k exp.) and the RBNZ interest rate decision where the market is unanimous in its expectations of a third consecutive interest rate hike in the tightening cycle to 3.25% (from 3.0%, low in previous easing cycle 2.5%).

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: EURO SOFTENS ON CONTINUED ECB FALL-OUT

Pivot: 1.3561, R1 1.35887, R2 1.36296, R3 1.36982, S1 1.35201, S2 1.34924, S3 1.34238 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Very Minor 1.3520/25, Minor 1.3500/05, Minor/Medium 1.3470/80.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 1.3555/65, Minor 1.3580/85, Very Minor 1.3620/25, Medium 1.3670/80.

View: With the Euro closing in on the post ECB low (1.3503) we would be wary of initiating fresh shorts here. Downside targets for the bears are 1.3500/05 and 1.3470/80. On the topside shorts could target 1.3555/60 and 1.3570/80.

Technical Comment: The dailies continue to look poor (the ADX is still very high), the 4H's are also heavy (the ADX is high, the Stochs are o/sold), the 1 H's are soft but improving a touch.

GBP/USD Intraday: ILO EMPLOYMENT DATA AWAITED

Pivot: 1.67725, R1 1.6802, R2 1.68471, R3 1.69217, S1 1.67274, S2 1.66979, S3 1.66233

Support Levels: Minor 1.6720/30, Minor/Medium 1.6690/95, Very Minor 1.6680/85, Minor/Medium 1.6650/60.

Resistance Levels: Minor 1.6780/85, Very Minor 1.6815/20, 1.6830/35.

View: Data will dictate so we will leave, 1.6690 and 1.6780 look like the initial key levels to watch.

Technical Comment: The dailies are soft (the ADX is low indicating low momentum), the 4H's are heavy (the Stochs are o/sold), the 1H's are mainly lifting.

USD/JPY Intraday: LISTLESS JPY CONTINUES TO DRIFT

Pivot: 102.381, R1 102.548, R2 102.742, R3 103.102, S1 102.187, S2 102.021, S3 101.66.

Support Levels: Very Minor 102.10/15, Extremely Minor 101.80/90, 101.65/70, Very Minor 101.40/50.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 102.40/45, Very Minor 102.65/70, Medium 102.75/85, Extremely Minor 102.85/90.

View: The Usd/jpy is soft but lacks momentum, we think a lowering range is most likely in the next 24 hours. 102.10/102.45, 101.90/102.60 max.

Technical Comment: The dailies are soft led by heavy Stochs (the ADX is low), the 4H's are drifting lower, the 1H's are also soft.

AUD/USD Intraday: EMPLOYMENT DATA IN FOCUS

Pivot: .9366, R1 .93908, R2 .94088, R3 .94516, S1 .9348, S2 .93232, S3 .92804.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor .9355/60, Very Minor .9330/35, .9310/20, Extremely Minor .9300/05, Minor .9285/90.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium .9385/90, Minor .9395/00, .9405/10, Very Minor .9425/30, .9445/50, Minor/Medium .9460/65.

View: Data risk makes trading the Aussie tough, will move short stops to above .9430 and aim to trim risk prior to data. The tech's are strong. Longs could target a .9360/65 entry.

Technical Comment: The dailies are firming (the Stochs are o/bght, the ADX is rising), the 4H's are also firm (with a high ADX), the 1H's are firm also.

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[MahiFX]

The Daily Score - 12 June 2014

A daily forex market summary from MahiFX
The Kiwi has been the largest mover of the majors after the RBNZ failed to signal a pause in the tightening cycle as many had expected. Immigration, house price inflation and above-trend growth continue to put pressure on the RBNZ to normalize interest rates (hike 25 bps to 3.25%, Nzd/usd +1.2% to .8656 highs). The Cable also put in a solid performance rallying to 1.6810 highs after the ILO employment report surpassed expectations. The U.K. economy created 345,000 jobs in the 3 months to April. The unemployment rate fell to 6.6% from 6.8% (6.7 % exp.), its lowest level since Jan 2009. The Aussie rallied to highs around .9414 before selling off to ~ .9353 on a knee-jerk reaction to the 4,800 fall in May employment (+10,000 exp.), the fall was quickly reversed as the break-down revealed that full time positions rose by 22,200 (part-time jobs fell 27,000). The unemployment rate remained at 5.8% (on exp.). The Euro has continued to hold the 1.3520 level whilst the Usd/jpy found support under 101.90.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: EUROZONE IP DATA DUE TODAY

Pivot: 1.35368, R1 1.35519, R2 1.35724, R3 1.3608, S1 1.35163, S2 1.35012, S3 1.34656 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Minor 1.3520/25, 1.3500/05, Minor/Medium 1.3470/80.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.3555/65, Minor 1.3580/85, Very Minor 1.3620/25, Medium 1.3670/80.

View: With 1.3520 holding another challenge at 1.3560 and 1.3580 is likely, but shorts are favoured in this area, stops above 1.3625.

Technical Comment: The dailies have changed little from yesterday (soft, with a high ADX), the 4H's are firming, the 1H's are rising.

GBP/USD Intraday: THE CABLE FIRMS ON POSITIVE EMPLOYMENT DATA

Pivot: 1.6779, R1 1.68199, R2 1.6852, R3 1.6925, S1 1.67469, S2 1.6706, S3 1.6633.

Support Levels: Very Minor 1.6765/70, Minor 1.6720/30, Minor/Medium 1.6690/95, Very Minor 1.6680/85, Minor/Medium 1.6650/60.

Resistance Levels: Minor 1.6815/20, Very Minor 1.6830/35, Minor 1.6845/50, 1.6880/85.

View: We favour longs with a target of 1.6880, stops under 1.6760, momentum is low so not a favoured trade, 1.6845/50 needs cleared first.

Technical Comment: The dailies are mixed and lack momentum (Stochs weak, MACD improving), the 4H's are also mixed, the 1H's add little.

USD/JPY Intraday: JPY STRENGTH WANES UNDER 101.90

Pivot: 102.111, R1 102.359, R2 102.642, R3 103.172, S1 101.828, S2 101.58, S3 101.049.

Support Levels: Very Minor 101.80/90, Extremely Minor 101.65/70, Very Minor 101.40/50.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 102.05/15 (very close), Extremely Minor 102.40/45, Very Minor 102.65/70, Medium 102.75/85.

View: Its groundhog day for the Usd/jpy. The current momentum favours a move towards 102.40 but the market is lack-lustre. We pick 101.80/102.40 the next 24 hours.

Technical Comment: The dailies are soft but lack momentum, the 4H's are beginning to lift (esp. the Stochs/RSI), the 1H's are firm (although the Stochs/RSI have ticked lower).

AUD/USD Intraday: 94C TOPPED PRIOR TO MAY EMPLOYMENT, .9353 LOWS POST DATA

Pivot: .93849, R1 .94048, R2 .94259, R3 .94669, S1 .93638, S2 .93439, S3 .93029.

Support Levels: Very Minor .9350/60, .9330/35, .9310/20, Extremely Minor .9300/05, Minor .9285/90.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium .9405/15, Very Minor .9425/30, .9445/50, Minor/Medium .9460/65.

View: The Aussie has been whippy today, we favour more price action inside .9350/.9420 over the next 24 hours. The tech's are still bullish.

Technical Comment: The dailies are still firm (the Stochs are o/bght), the 4H's are deteriorating pointing to near-term consolidation, the 1H's are mixed but soft on balance.

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[MahiFX]

Daily forex market summary from MahiFX - 13 June

Market Summary
The spotlight was on the Cable in early Asian trade today as the BOE Governor Mark Carney said that the BOE could raise interest rates sooner than the markets expect. Carney expressed concerns over the housing market debt mountain, which could undermine stability. U.K. house prices rose ~10% over the past year placing loan/income ratios at an all time record. (Cable highs 1.6958). The Aussie rally continued to .9438 highs after yesterday’s solid May employment data release, whilst the Kiwi peaked at .8700 putting its peak gains at 1.75% since the mildly hawkish RBNZ statement yesterday. The Euro managed to post only marginally additional losses to 1.3512 before rallying to 1.3572 highs, whilst the JPY continued to firm (Usd/jpy lows 101.60, last 101.80). Resistance at 102.10/15 caps the Usd/jpy for the time being before the BOJ.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: BUYERS EMERGE AHEAD OF 1.3500, EUROZONE CPI AWAITED

Pivot: 1.35456, R1 1.35789, R2 1.36053, R3 1.3665, S1 1.35192, S2 1.34859, S3 1.34262. (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Minor 1.3500/10, Minor/Medium 1.3470/80.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium 1.3580/85, Very Minor 1.3620/25, Medium 1.3670/80.

View: The 1.3580/90 level holds the key, CPI could foster some vol, shorts would stop above here, the first support level is 1.3500/10. A break of 1.3590 should bring 1.3620 into view.

Technical Comment: The dailies remain soft with a high ADX, the 4H's are firming (although the ADX is falling), the 1H's are ticking up.

GBP/USD Intraday: CABLE SOARS ON CARNEY RATE HIKE TALK

Pivot: 1.68819, R1 1.69775, R2 1.70263, R3 1.71707, S1 1.68331, S2 1.67375, S3 1.65931.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 1.6900/05, Very Minor 1.6880/85, Minor 1.6845/55.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.6975/80, Minor/Medium 1.6995/1.7005, Medium/Major 1.7040/50.

View: Whilst thin Asian markets have no doubt exacerbated the up-move the bulls are in charge. We like to buy ahead of 1.6900, adding ahead of 1.6880, stops under 1.6840 for 1.7000+

Technical Comment: The dailies are very strong, the 4H's are also strong (the RSI and Stochs are o/bght, the ADX is high), the 1H's are very similar to the 4H's.

USD/JPY Intraday: THE JPY FIRMS TO 101.60 VS THE USD. BOJ IN FOCUS

Pivot: 101.851, R1 102.023, R2 102.352, R3 102.887, S1 101.487, S2 101.279, S3 100.743.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 101.60/65, Very Minor 101.40/50, Extremely Minor 101.30/35, Very Minor 101.10/15.

Resistance Levels: Minor 102.05/15, Extremely Minor 102.40/45, Minor 102.65/70.

View: Some vol. will ensure over the BOJ, we favour selling rallies for now but will wait for the BOJ commentary to clear, 102.10/15 and 102.40 are the first topside levels to watch.

Technical Comment: The dailies are weak although the momentum is stil low (although increasing), the 4H's are heavy (the ADX is high), the 1H's are firming.

AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE RALLY CONTINUES TO .9438 HIGHS

Pivot: .94054, R1 .94609, R2 .94938, R3 .95822, S1 .93725, S2 .9317, S3 .92286.

Support Levels: Very Minor .9400/05, Extremely Minor .9390/95, Very Minor .9375/80, Minor/Medium .9350/60.

Resistance Levels: Minor .9440/50, Minor/Medium .9460/65, Very Minor .9485/90.

View: The bulls are in charge but we are hesitant after the strong run and the S.T. tech's are pointing to a consolidation. We won't chase preferring to buy at .9375/85 stops under .9350, care over Chinese data required.

Technical Comment: The dailies are firm (MACD aside, the Stochs are o/bght), the 4H's are firm but currently tracking sideways, the 1H's are soft.

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[MahiFX]

The Daily Score - 18 June 2014

Market Summary
Apologies for missing a day or two of posting the Daily Score. . . .

he U.S. FOMC meeting will hog the limelight later today where focus will center on the policy statement and update of the economic projections by the Fed chair Janet Yellen. A $US10B monthly reduction in asset purchases is widely expected, reducing the monthly purchases to $US35B. The May U.S. CPI reading released yesterday was stronger than expected; the headline number at 2.1% (YoY) exceeded the 2.0% expectations (core 2.0% vs. 1.9% exp.), whilst the monthly headline rise (0.4%) was the largest increase in 15 months. The Euro slid from yesterday’s highs (1.3587) to base at 1.3536. The Aussie continued its slide to lows of .9329, whilst the Usd/jpy firmed to 102.24. Weaker than expected U.K. CPI data (core 1.6% YoY vs. 1.70% exp, from 2.0%) saw the Cable trade marginally lower to 1.6937, the BOE minutes will be in focus today, signs of a shift in the debate towards possible rate hikes before years end will be closely watched.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: ALL EYES ON THE FOMC

Pivot: 1.3557, R1 1.35776, R2 1.36079, R3 1.36588, S1 1.35267, S2 1.35061, S3 1.34552 (All pivots are daily 5pm NY).

Support Levels: Medium 1.3500/10, 1.3470/80, Minor 1.3450/55, Minor/Medium 1.3415/20.

Resistance Levels: Medium 1.3580/90, Very Minor 1.3620/25, Medium 1.3670/80.

View: We prefer to stay out over FOMC, the techs are mixed. 1.3500/10, and 1.3580/90 are the closest key levels to watch.

Technical Comment: The dailies are mainly tracking sideways (although the Stochs are firm), the 4H's are mildly soft (although the Stochs have lifted), the 1H's are trickling higher (the Stochs aside).

GBP/USD Intraday: BOE MINUTES AND FOMC TODAY

Pivot: 1.69641, R1 1.6990, R2 1.70153, R3 1.70665, S1 1.69388, S2 1.69129, S3 1.68617.

Support Levels: Very Minor 1.6935/45, 1.6920/25, 1.6900/05, 1.6880/85, Minor 1.6845/55.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium 1.7005/1.7015, Medium/Major 1.7040/50. Minor 1.7130/40.

View: The bulls are in control but the FOMC will induce volatility and we prefer to stay out.

Technical Comment: The dailies are still firm (the Stochs are o/bght), the 4H's are slightly soft (Stochs aside, the ADX is falling), the 1H's are firming.

USD/JPY Intraday: THE USD/JPY FIRMS PRIOR TO THE FOMC

Pivot: 102.069, R1 102.322, R2 102.496, R3 102.922, S1 101.895, S2 101.642, S3 101.216.

Support Levels: Very Minor 101.60/65, Very Minor 101.40/50, Extremely Minor 101.30/35, Very Minor 101.10/15.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 102.20/25, 102.40/45, Minor 102.65/70, 102.80/85, Very Minor 103.00/05.

View: Too tough with FOMC, but we would be surprised to see it break out of 101.40/60 on the downside and 102.80/103.10 on top.

Technical Comment: The dailies are firming moderately, the 4H's are also firming (the Stochs have eased a touch), the 1H's are sliding.

AUD/USD Intraday: FOMC TO SET THE TONE

Pivot: .93571, R1 .93838, R2 .94302, R3 .95033, S1 .93107, S2 .9284, S3 .92109.

Support Levels: Minor .9320/30, Very Minor .9300/05, Minor/Medium .9280/85, .9250/60.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor .9365/70, Minor .9375/80, Very Minor .9385/90, .9405/10, Minor .9440/50.

View: Will stay put over FOMC. Its tough to see a move beyond .9250 and .9400/10 over the announcement.

Technical Comment: The dailies are sliding, the 4H's are soft but the Stochs/RSI are beginning to lift, the 1H's are firming.

 

[MahiFX]

The Daily Score - 23 June 2014

A daily forex market summary from MahiFX

The Australian dollar surged in Asian trade today from lows posted shortly after the open (~.9370) on solid Chinese factory data. The Aussie has rallied to .9442 highs so far after the HSBC Flash PMI rose to 50.8 from 49.4 in May, well ahead of consensus forecasts of 49.7. The Canadian dollar rallied on Friday from around 1.0820 against the dollar to be trading around 1.0725 currently after the Canadian CPI rose 2.3% in May from a year earlier, exceeding the BOC’s target for the first time in more than 2 years. The Cable retreated from its multi-year highs around 1.7060 to trade down to 1.7002 lows (last 1.7035) whilst the Euro slid to lows around 1.3563 (last 1.3605). The Usd/jpy has slipped marginally from highs set near 102.20 to be trading at 101.95 currently.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: THE EURO BOUNCES OFF 1.3560.

Pivot: 1.35993, R1 1.36345, R2 1.36692, R3 1.37391, S1 1.35646, S2 1.35294, S3 1.34595 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY.

Support Levels: Very Minor 1.3560/65, 1.3530/35, Medium/Major 1.3500/10, 1.3470/80.

Resistance Levels: Minor 1.3640/50, Medium 1.3670/80.

View: We favour the Euro returning higher to challenge last week's highs (1.3640/45) and 1.3670. Stops unfortunately need to be sub 1.3560.

Technical Comment: The dailies are mildly firm (the ADX is declining), the 4H's are mixed but beginning to tick higher again, the 1H's are firm but lack momentum.

GBP/USD Intraday: THE CABLE EASES FROM MULTI-YEAR HIGHS NEAR 1.7060.

Pivot: 1.70255, R1 1.70481, R2 1.70833, R3 1.71411, S1 1.69903, S2 1.69677, S3 1.69099.

Support Levels: Minor 1.6995/1.7005, Very Minor 1.6930/40, 1.6915/25, 1.6900/05.

Resistance Levels: Minor 1.7060/65, 1.7130/40.

View: The Cable continues to look good and while 1.6995/1.7005 holds we favour higher levels targeting 1.7130/40.

Technical Comment: The dailies are still firm but haven't added to their gains (the Stochs have eased), the 4H's are swinging higher, the 1H's are firm.

USD/JPY Intraday: MORE RANGE TRADING FOR THE USD/JPY

Pivot: 102.028, R1 102.239, R2 102.407, R3 102.786, S1 101.86, S2 101.649, S3 101.27.

Support Levels: Minor 101.70/75, 101.60/65, Very Minor 101.40/50, Extremely Minor 101.30/35, Very Minor 101.10/15.

Resistance Levels: Minor 102.15/20, Minor 102.35/45, 102.65/70, 102.80/85.

View: Its hard to see anything but groundhog day yet again for the Usd/jpy. 101.70/102.20/25 remains in play.

Technical Comment: The dailies still lack any real impetus (the ADX is low), the 4H's are easing but also lack momentum, the 1H's are heavy.

AUD/USD Intraday: AUSSIE BOOSTED ON CHINA PMI DATA

Pivot: .93939, R1 .94098, R2 .94308, R3 .94677, S1 .93729, S2 .9357, S3 .93201.

Support Levels: Very Minor .9400/05, Minor .9365/75, Minor/Medium .9315/30 zone, Very Minor .9300/05.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium .9435/50 zone, Minor/Medium .9460/65, Very Minor .9480/85.

View: The Aussie is challenging good res. currently. This move looks capable of testing the 2014 highs at .9460 but we wouldn't chase here. We prefer to leave spec. sell at 60 and 75/80 with a s/l above .9500.

Technical Comment: The dailies are moving higher again (the MACD is flat), the 4H's are firming although the momentum is still quite low, the 1H's are firm.

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[MahiFX]

The Daily Score - 25 June 2014

A daily forex market summary from MahiFX

A marginally firmer USD against most of the majors yesterday as data continues to suggest the U.S. economy performing well over spring. New home sales at +504,000 rose 18.6% MoM (+1.4% exp.) and was the largest 1-month gain since January 1992. Consumer Confidence rose to 85.2 in June from 83.0 (exp. 83.5). By contrast the German IFO business survey was soft, the Euro eased to 1.3583 lows from ~1.3627 highs. The Aussie fared poorly in the firm USD environment sliding to .9356 lows (from above .9420) as the high-yielders lost their luster on the improving U.S. data and concern over Fed complacency re potential emerging inflation pressures. The Cable slid through the 1.7000 support area to lows of 1.6965 so far as the BOE Governor Carney downplayed the speed at which interest rates might rise, the Usd/jpy again stumbled around the 102.15 level (101.90 last).

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: GERMAN IFO SOFT, EURO LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM 24 HRS PRIOR

Pivot: 1.36058, R1 1.36281, R2 1.36499, R3 1.3694, S1 1.3584, S2 1.35617, S3 1.35176 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 1.3570/75, Very Minor 1.3560/65, 1.3530/35, Medium/Major 1.3500/10, 1.3470/80.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 1.3625/30, Minor 1.3640/50, Medium 1.3670/80.

View: With the declining momentum we favour the Euro being contained within 1.3570/1.3630 again today.

Technical Comment: The dailies are mixed and momentum is declining, the 4H's also lack momentum and direction , the 1H's are slightly soft.

GBP/USD Intraday: CARNEY ATTEMPTS TO DOWNPLAY THE SPEED OF INTEREST RATE RISES

Pivot: 1.69942, R1 1.70227, R2 1.70605, R3 1.71268, S1 1.69564, S2 1.69279, S3 1,68616.

Support Levels: Very Minor 1.6930/40, 1.6915/25, 1.6900/05.

Resistance Levels: Minor 1.6995/1.7005, Medium 1.7060/65.

View: The Cable has lost its shine, we expect rallies to stall ahead of 1.7000 with 1.6920 the target, stops above 1.7040.

Technical Comment: The dailies are deteriorating led by the Stochs/RSI, the 4H's are sliding, the 1H's are soft but improving.

USD/JPY Intraday: 102.15/20 CAPS THE USD/JPY AGAIN

Pivot: 101.986, R1 102.154, R2 102.337, R3 102.688, S1 101.803, S2 101.635, S3 101.284.

Support Levels: Minor/Medium 101.70/75, 101.60/65, Very Minor 101.40/50, Extremely Minor 101.30/35, Very Minor 101.10/15.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium 102.15/20, 102.35/45 Minor 102.65/70, 102.80/85.

View: With the current very low momentum there is still money trading 101.70/102.15. No bias here.

Technical Comment: The dailies continue to track sideways with low momentum, the 4H's are sliding, the 1H's are mixed (the Stochs/RSI are improving).

AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE FARES POORLY AS HIGH YEILDERS WANE (.9356 LOWS).

Pivot: .93884, R1 .94103, R2 .94527, R3 .9517, S1 .9346, S2 .93241, .92598.

Support Levels: Very Minor .9350/55, Minor/Medium .9315/30 zone, Very Minor .9300/05.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor .9370/75, .9405/15, Medium .9440/50.

View: A move through .9350 will likely open up .9320/30 as a target but the risk metrics aren't compelling. The first real res. should lie just above .9400. We prefer to buy at 35, 25 stops under .9300.

Technical Comment: The dailies are softening (DI- has crossed DI+), the 4Hs are heavy with increasing momentum (the Stochs are o/sold), the 1H's are improving from a weak position.

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[MahiFX]

The Daily Score - 27 June 2014

A daily forex market summary from MahiFX
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Discussion over the Fed interest rate policy was in the limelight yesterday. James Bullard, president of the FRB of St. Louis told Fox Business Network that he favors raising rates in early 2015 (earlier than many expect). Bullard said the FOMC is closer to its goals for full employment and low and stable inflation than many investors realize. He forecast that growth will pick-up to 3% this year. The Euro slid to lows around 1.3575 from the 1.3620 area. The Cable rose after the U.K. Financial Stability Report discussion outlined measures aimed at stabilizing the housing market and curbing debt (highs 1.7040), key U.K. GDP data will be released later today. The Usd/jpy was little changed on the host of data released in Asia today today after trading down to the 101.50 level yesterday (core inflation +3.4% YoY, exp. 3.4%), although has slipped later to 101.45 in Asian trade. The Kiwi set fresh 2014 highs above .8790 today.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: EURO TRADING LARGELY UNCHANGED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, AFTER 1.3575 LOWS.

Pivot: 1.36095, R1 1.36432, R2 1.36752, R3 1.3741, S1 1.35775, S2 1.35437, S3 1.3478 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Minor 1.3570/75, Very Minor 1.3560/65, 1.3530/35.

Resistance Levels: Minor 1.3640/55 zone, Medium 1.3670/80, Very Minor 1.3700/05.

View: 1.3570/80 is the buy area, upside targets remain 1.3650,70 and 1.3700. Mild upside bias but will stay out until sub 1.3580 (buy, stops under 1.3550).

Technical Comment: The dailies are mildly positive (the Stochs are edging lower), the 4H's are mixed, the 1H's are strong.

GBP/USD Intraday: THE CABLE FIRMS ON BOE HOUSING MEASURES

Pivot: 1.70124, R1 1.70534, R2 1.70809, R3 1.71494, S1 1.69849, S2 1.69439, S3 1.68754.

Support Levels: Very Minor 1.6990/1.7000, 1.6950/55, 1.6930/40, Minor 1.6915/25.

Resistance Levels: Medium 1.7060/65, Very MInor 1.7130/40.

View: The Cable looks firm again, we expect 1.6990/1.7005 to hold sell-offs, upside targets are 1.7060/65 then 1.7130/40.

Technical Comment: The dailies are swinging higher again, the 4H's are firming (the ADX is rising), the 1H's are firm.

USD/JPY Intraday: DATA FAILS TO ROUSE THE JPY, 101.45 LAST

Pivot: 101.696, R1 101.899, R2 102.07, R3 102.445, S1 101.524, S2 101.321, S3 100.947

Support Levels: Minor 101.40/50, Extremely Minor 101.30/35, Very Minor 101.10/15.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 101.80/85, Minor/Medium 102.15/20, 102.35/45 Minor 102.65/70, 102.80/85.

View: The Usd/jpy continues to trade heavily but sell-offs below here typically quickly attract buyers over the past 4 months. We prefer to buy at 30/40 stops under 101.10. Re-buy at 100.85, stop under 100.60.

Technical Comment: The dailies are very similar to yesterday (slightly soft), the 4H's are also soft with increasing momentum, the 1H's are soft.

AUD/USD Intraday: AUSSIE UNCHANGED IN QUIET TRADE

Pivot: .94097, R1 .94232, R2 .94322, R3 .94547, S1 .94007, S2 .93872, S3 .93647.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor .9395/00, .9370/75, Minor .9350/55, Minor/Medium .9315/30 zone, Very Minor .9300/05.

Resistance Levels: Medium .9440/50, .9460/65.

View: We see .9390/95 to .9445 wrapping it up today. No real bias, although selling at 35/45 with stops above .9465 should be cheap.

Technical Comment: The dailies are slowly firming with moderate momentum, the 4H's are firm with reasonably low momentum, the 1H"s are firm but tracking sideways.

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[MahiFX]

The Daily Score 30 June 2014

A daily forex market summary from MahiFX

A quiet last 24 hours in the majors although some outperformance has been seen in the safe haven currencies the JPY and CHF (Usd/chf .8910, Usd/jpy 101.30 last). The EUR harmonized CPI reading for June came in at 1.0% YoY (0.7% exp.), helping the Euro trade up from lows around 1.3610 to ~1.3650 on Friday. The Cable was little changed trading a ~1.7006-1.7050 range (last 1.7030) as the U.K. Q1 GDP final read was unchanged at 0.8% as expected. The Aussie again ran into selling interest around the .9440 level before retreating to lows around .9405, whilst the JPY has firmed to highs of 101.26 against the USD in Asian trade today. Traders will be watching the U.S. Pending Homes sales and Chicago PMI data later today, whilst the RBA interest rate decision will be released in Asia tomorrow ( no change at 2.5% exp.).

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: EUR FIRMS ON CPI DATA

Pivot: 1.36366, R1 1.36636, R2 1.36777, R3 1.37188, S1 1.36225, S2 1.35955, S3 1.35544 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 1.3630/35, Very Minor 1.3605/10, Minor 1.3570/75, Very Minor 1.3560/65, 1.3530/35.

Resistance Levels: Minor 1.3645/55, Medium 1.3670/80, Very Minor 1.3700/05.

View: The Euro looks firm but needs to get through 1.3650/55, we favour waiting for 1.3610/15 to buy, more agreesive buyers could target 30/35, targets are 1.3670/80 and 1.3700.

Technical Comment: The dailies are drifting higher (the ADX is declining), the 4H's are firm (the Stochs are o/bght, the RSI is edging lower), the 1H's are drifting lower.

GBP/USD Intraday: THE FINAL READING OF Q1 U.K. GDP AS EXPECTED.

Pivot: 1.70317, R1 1.70567, R2 1.70763, R3 1.71209, S1 1.70121, S2 1.69871, S3 1.69425.

Support Levels: Minor 1.6990/1.7000, 1.6950/55, 1.6930/40, Minor 1.6915/25.

Resistance Levels: Medium 1.7060/65, Very MInor 1.7130/40.

View: We continue to favour the upside, 1.6990/1.7000 needs to hold sell-offs, a break of 1.7060/70 will bring 1.7130 into view.

Technical Comment: The dailies are firm (watch for a potential Macd/signal line sell cross alert though), the 4H's are similar, the 1H's are easing.

USD/JPY Intraday: THE JPY FIRMS MARGINALLY IN ASIAN TRADE

Pivot: 101.484, R1 101.65, R2 101.895, R3 102.307, S1 101.238, S2 101.072, S3 100.661.

Support Levels: Very Minor 101.10/15, Medium 100.70/80, Minor 100.60/65.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 101.50/55, 101.80/85, Minor/Medium 102.15/20.

View: The tech's are heavy but selling down here is only for the brave. Long here, stops under 101.10, bears could target 101.45/50 stops above 101.75.

Technical Comment: The dailies are weak with increasing momentum, the 4H's are also weak (the ADX is edging higher), the 1H's are mainly soft.

AUD/USD Intraday: FAMILAR SELLING ABOVE .9440 CAPS THE AUSSIE

Pivot: .94257, R1 .94458, R2 .94612, R3 .94967, S1 .94103, S2 .93902, S3 .93547.

Support Levels: Very Minor .9395/00, .9370/75, Minor .9350/55, Minor/Medium .9315/30 zone.

Resistance Levels: Medium/Major .9440/50, .9460/65.

View: Selling between .9440 and .9460 has capped the Aussie since Nov. 2013. The Aussie does look firm however so we favour small longs around .9400/05, adding at 85/90, stops under .9370, RBA care needed though. .9440/65 to cap.

Technical Comment: The dailies are marginally firm, the 4H's are mixed with declining momentum, the 1H's are firming.

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[MahiFX]

The Daily Score - 01 July 2014

Happy Canada Day to all Canadians!
Here's the daily forex market summary:

Market Summary
The USD slide continued yesterday despite continued solid dataflow. Pending sales of existing homes lifted the most in 4 years, whilst the Chicago PMI eased marginally (62.6 from 65.5, 63.0 exp.) but remains high with strong underlying details. The Euro rallied sharply to highs around 1.3698 and the Cable 1.7115, the latter trading at the highest levels since Oct. 2008. The Usd/jpy continues to find support ahead of 101.20 (last 101.40). The Aussie rallied off .9387 lows to trade back up to .9440 in line with the weakening USD. Data released in Asian trade today saw China’s factory growth rise to a six-month high in June; the official PMI quickened from May’s 50.8 to 51.0. The RBA left interest rates unchanged at 2.5% as expected reaffirming their neutral stance; this has seen the Aud/usd trade up to .9455 highs as some market pundits had expected more dovish commentary.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: EURO RALLY RESUMES, HIGHS NEAR 1.3700

Pivot: 1.36771, R1 1.37137, R2 1.37349, R3 1.37928, S1 1.36559, S2 1.36192, S3 1.35614 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Minor 1.3645/55, Very Minor 1.3630/35.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.3700/05, 1.3735/40, 1.3775/80.

View: The break of 1.3650/55 has quickly seen near 1.3700, we won't chase as we can't see this beyond 1.3735/40 for now. Longs favoured but prefer bids near 1.3660, stops under 1.3625.

Technical Comment: The dailies are firm (the Stochs are entering the o/bght zone), the 4H's are firm but haven't gained in recent hours (the ADX is high), the 1Hs are heavy (sell signals RSI+DMI+MACD).

GBP/USD Intraday: THE CABLE FIRMS TO THE HIGHEST LVLS SINCE OCT 2008 (1.7100+)

Pivot: 1.70763, R1 1.71443, R2 1.7183, R3 1.72897, S1 1.70376, S2 1.69696, S3 1.68629.

Support Levels: Minor 1.7060/65, Medium 1.6995/1.7005.

Resistance Levels: Very MInor 1.7130/40, 1.7155/60, 1.7175/80, Extremely Minor 1.7185/90.

View: The bulls are in charge, buyers should look for 1.7060/70 to hold, solid support is around 1.7000 though, first target is 1.7130/40.

Technical Comment: The dailies are firm (the ADX is rising again), the 4H's are also firm (the Stochs and RSI are o/bght), the 1H'S are declining.

USD/JPY Intraday: THE JPY BEGINS WEAKENING OUT OF THE FAMILAR USD/JPY SUPPORT ZONE (101.10/25).

Pivot: 101.347, R1 101.455, R2 101.581, R3 101.815, S1 101.221, S2 101.113, S3 100.879.

Support Levels: Minor 101.10/25 zone, Medium 100.70/80, Minor 100.60/65.

Resistance Levels: Minor 101.50/55, Very Minor 101.80/85, Minor/Medium 102.15/20.

View: The Usd/jpy is begnning to find itsfeet, we will maintain longs, stops still under 101.10 targeting 101.70 and 101.90/95, latecomers could target 101.20/30 again.

Technical Comment: The dailies are beginning to firm from their weak position (MACD aside), the 4H's are increasing, the 1H's are firm (the ADX is increasing, the Stochs are o/bght).

AUD/USD Intraday: BUYERS PUSH AUSSIE BACK FROM .9387 TO .9440, .9455 POST RBA

Pivot: .94198, R1 .94519, R2 .9471, R3 .95222, S1 .94007, S2 .93686, S3 .93174.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor .9410/15, .9385/90, Very Minor .9370/75, Minor .9350/55.

Resistance Levels: Medium/Major .9460/65, Very Minor .9480/85, Extremely Minor .9495/.9505, Minor .9525/30.

View: The Aussie is firm but still lies in the resistance band ahead of .9460/65. We can't buy here and will stand aside, .9415-.9485/.9500 is our pick for the next 24/36 hrs. False break potential above .9460.

Technical Comment: The dailies are firm, the 4H's are also firm (the ADX is low though), the 1H's are firming.

 

[MahiFX]

The Daily Score - 11 July 2014

A daily forex market summary from MahiFX

The majors were dominated by a flight to safety yesterday, which saw the USD gain ground except against the JPY that is also viewed as a safe haven bet. The move started after a ‘missed payment’ in the holding company structure encompassing Portuguese bank Espirito Santo which lost 17% before trading was halted in the stock, this served to heighten risk aversion. The Euro slumped to 1.3589 having earlier peaked at 1.3650, the Cable drifted lower to 1.7105 lows, whilst the JPY rallied to 101.07 highs against the USD. The Aussie continued its decline to base at .9361 after having earlier spiked to .9455 highs in Asia after the June employment data. The bounce has so far been contained by .9400.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: THE EURO WANES ON FLIGHT TO USD SAFETY FEARS

Pivot: 1.36162, R1 1.36432, R2 1.3678, R3 1.37398, S1 1.35814, S2 1.35544, S3 1.34926. (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Minor 1.3580/85, 1.3570/75, Very Minor 1.3560/65.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 1.3610/15, Minor/Medium 1.3645/55, Extremely Minor 1.3665/75, Minor/Medium 1.3700/05.

View: The Euro is trapped between 90&10 for now. We still favour shorts overall but with little momentum and a void data calendar a rangy play is most likely. 1.3570/1.3615.

Technical Comment: The dailies are mixed with declining momentum, the 4H's are soft, the 1H's add little but are soft on balance.

GBP/USD Intraday: THE CABLE EASES BUT MISSES MOST OF THE FLIGHT TO SAFETY SELLING

Pivot: 1.71349, R1 1.71646, R2 1.71974, R3 1.72599, S1 1.71021, S2 1.70724, S3 1.70099.

Support Levels: Very Minor 1.7090/95, 1.7080/85, Minor 1.7060/65.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.7165/70, Medium/Major 1.7175/80, Extremely Minor 1.7185/90, 1.7200/05, Very Minor 1.7230/35.

View: Little has changed since yesterday, we have a mild short bias but continued drifting today is most likely. Shorts at 40/55 should stop above 80.

Technical Comment: The dailies are drifting lower from firm positions (the Stochs aside, the 4 H's are firming slowly, the 1H's are firming (the RSI aside).

USD/JPY Intraday: RISK AVERSION AND SAFETY BUYING SPURS THE JPY.

Pivot: 101.36, R1 102.65, R2 101.955, R3 102.551, S1 101.055, S2 100.764, S3 100.169.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 101.05/10, Medium 100.70/80, Minor/Medium 100.65/70.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 101.35/45, 101.60/65, 101.70/75.

View: The Usd/jpy looks heavy but selling down here over recent months has often proved fruitless. Cheap trade would be to sell at 35/40, s/l above 101.60.

Technical Comment: The dailies are soft with increasing momentum, the 4H's are also soft (the Stochs aside), the 1H's are soft.

AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE CONTINUES LOWER TO .9361 ON RISK AVERSION FLOW

Pivot: .94041, R1 .94469, R2 .94988, R3 .95935, S1 .93522, S2 .93094, S3 .92147.

Support Levels: Very Minor .9355/60, .9340/45, Medium .9315/30 zone.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor .9395/00, .9410/15, Very Minor .9440/45, Minor .9455/60.

View: Its hard to see the Aussie rallying above .9400, .9410/15 max. We favour mild shorts targeting .9360 and .9340.

Technical Comment: The dailies are mixed (the DMI looks the firmest), the 4H's are drifting higher, the 1H's are firming.

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[MahiFX]

The Daily Score - 14 July 2014

A daily forex market summary from MahiFX

The CAD was the weakest G10 currency on Friday as the market reacted to an unexpected climb in the unemployment rate to 7.1% (vs. 7.0 % exp.) and a drop in employment of 9,400 jobs for June (vs. +20,000 exp). Despite part-time job losses being the driver behind the fall (-43,000) the CAD fell from ~1.0650 against the USD to be currently trading at 1.0735. Most of the other majors were contained within reasonably tight ranges (Euro, ~1.3592-1.3625), the Cable ~1.7100-1.7150, and the Aussie ~.9375-.9409. Focus for the early part of this week will center on the FOMC Chair Janet Yellens’ semi-annual testimony to Congress (the Humphrey Hawkins Testimony) as traders watch for any acknowledgement of the recent strength in inflation and employment indicators, as market chatter continues around the potential for an earlier initiation of rate hikes.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: QUIET TRADE AROUND 1.3600 IN THE EURO

Pivot: 1.36081, R1 1.36240, R2 1.36407, R3 1.36733, S1 1.35914, S2 1.35755, S3 1.35429 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Minor 1.3580/85, 1.3570/75, Very Minor 1.3560/65.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium 1.3645/55, Extremely Minor 1.3665/75, Minor/Medium 1.3700/05.

View: The Euro looks soft overall but momentum is low. We note Draghi's speech today, we'd be surprised to see any comments that reverse its soft tone, so favour mild shorts 20/30, stops above 55.

Technical Comment: The dailies are displaying moderate softness with declining momentum, the 4H's are flat/edging up a touch, the 1H's similar

GBP/USD Intraday: THE CABLE CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE (1.7100-1.7150)

Pivot: 1.71218, R1 1.71475, R2 1.71763, R3 1.72308, S1 1.7093, S2 1.70673, S3 1.70128.

Support Levels: Minor 1.7090/95, Very Minor 1.7080/85, Minor 1.7060/65.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.7150/55, Minor 1.7165/70, Medium/Major 1.7175/80, Extremely Minor 1.7185/90, 1.7200/05, Very Minor 1.7230/35.

View: The Cable rally looks increasingly tired to us, we favour a move lower but note the CPI release on Tuesday will most likely be the catalyst for the next move so don't expect too much today. 1.7150/65 to cap.

Technical Comment: The dailies continue to deteriorate (the ADX is declining), the 4H's are mixed, the 1H's are soft.

USD/JPY Intraday: MORE DULL TRADE IN THE USD/JPY

Pivot: 101.314, R1 101.411, R2 101.490, R3 101.665, S1 101.235, S2 101.139, S3 100.963.

Support Levels: Very Minor 101.05/10, Medium 100.70/80, Minor/Medium 100.65/70.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 101.35/45, 101.60/65, 101.70/75.

View: The Usd/jpy market is lack-luster, we think it is most likely in the center of its range for the next 24/36 hours, 101.05-101.60/65.

Technical Comment: The dailies are moderately soft (although the RSI/Stochs are ticking up a touch), the 4H's are mixed, the 1H's are mainly easing.

AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE OPENS LOWER AFTER GOV. STEVENS ARTICLE COMMENTS

Pivot: .93922, R1 .94083, R2 .94246, R3 .9457, S1 .93759, S2 .93598, S3 .93274.

Support Levels: Very Minor .9370/75, .9355/60, .9340/45, Medium .9315/30 zone.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor .9410/15, .9440/45, Minor .9455/60.

View: We view more of the same as being most likely today .9375-.9410/15, with a chance of .9425 max. Favour shorts.

Technical Comment: The dailies are easing (although DI+ is above DI-), the 4H's are beginning to lift (the MACD is flat), the 1H's are firm (flat MACD).

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[MahiFX]

The Daily Score - 15 July 2014

A daily forex market summary from MahiFX
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Market Summary
The Cable stood out as an underperformer in an otherwise quiet market amongst the majors as it slid from highs above 1.7140 to under the 1.7085/1.7100 support zone established this month (lows 1.7070). The Euro was well contained within recent ranges again failing to rally beyond 1.3650 (1.3640 highs, last 1.3615). Comments from the ECB’s Draghi to the E.U. parliamentary committee failed to ignite. The JPY eased to lows around 101.65 against the USD. Neutral RBA minutes saw the Aussie track sideways in Asian trade today. Generally positive sentiment saw equities rally in Europe and the U.S., with the Dow briefly trading at record highs again whilst the Gold price under-went its largest daily fall in 2014 so far (-2.5%, last $US1307 an ounce).

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: DRAGHI COMMENTS FAIL TO FIRE THE EURO

Pivot: 1.3619, R1 1.36404, R2 1.36617, R3 1.37045, S1 1.35976, S2 1.35762, S3 1.35335. (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Minor 1.3580/85, 1.3570/75, Very Minor 1.3560/65.

Resistance Levels: Medium 1.3640/55 zone, Extremely Minor 1.3665/75, Minor/Medium 1.3700/05.

View: The Euro looks listless with 1.3600/1.3640 likely to wrap it up. We have a mild short bias towards the upper end of the range, s/l's above 55.

Technical Comment: The dailies are tracking sideways with low momentum, the 4H's are very similar, the 1H's are mixed.

GBP/USD Intraday: THE CABLE DRIFTS LOWER THROUGH 1.7100 PRIOR TO CPI DATA TODAY

Pivot: 1.70995, R1 1.7129, R2 1.71738, R3 1.72481, S1 1.70547, S2 1.70252, S3 1.69509.

Support Levels: Minor 1.7060/65, Very Minor 1.7045/50, Medium 1.6995/1.7010 zone.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 1.7085/95, Minor 1.7150/55, 1.7165/70, Medium/Major 1.7175/80

View: The Cable looks heavy but the CPI could make things messy. We will stay out today, key resistance lies in the 1.7150/80 area, key support 1.6995/1.7010.

Technical Comment: The dailies are soft pointing to downside pressure (the ADX is tracking lower), the 4H's are also soft (the Stochs are o/sold, the ADX is low), the 1H's are mixed.

USD/JPY Intraday: NO CHANGE FROM THE BOJ

Pivot: 101.497, R1 101.661, R2 101.786, R3 102.075, S1 101.372, S2 101.208, S3 100.919.

Support Levels: Very Minor 101.20/25, Minor 101.05/10, Medium 100.70/80, Minor/Medium 100.65/70.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 101.70/75, 101.80/85, 101.95/00.

View: The momentum is to the upside for now and this move could extend to 101.80/85 and 101.95. We will leave though.

Technical Comment: The dailies are lifting, the 4H's are firm (the Stochs are o/bght), the 1H's are mixed.

AUD/USD Intraday: RBA MINUTES NEUTRAL, AUSSIE UNCHANGED

Pivot: .93913, R1 .94054, R2 .94176, R3 .94439, S1 .93791, S2 .9365, S3 .93387.

Support Levels: Very Minor .9370/75, .9355/60, .9340/45, Medium .9315/30 zone.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor .9410/15, .9440/45, Minor .9455/60.

View: Little has changed since yesterday, we still like the Aussie to be contained within .9370/.9415.

Technical Comment: The dailies are drifting with a mildly positive tone, the 4H's lack momentum and are largely drifitng, the 1H's are featureless.