Market Summary and Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

[MahiFX]

Market Summary

Yesterday’s trading saw a weaker dollar against the high yielders (NZD, AUD, NOK, SEK), whilst the looming ECB meeting prevented the Euro from participating despite the Euro-zone PMI printing at 32-month highs (53.3). Weak employment indicators contributed to the dollars’ slide as the ADP employment report came in at 139,000 vs. 155,000 expected. The employment component of the Non-manufacturing ISM slumped to a 4-year low of 47.5 (56.4 in Jan.) pointing to downside risks for Friday’s NF Payroll report. The Cable firmed after the PMI services data (58.2) added to growing evidence that the U.K. is firmly on the path to recovery (last 1.6710). The Aussie rose as the market absorbed yesterday’s firm Q42013 GDP result whilst also taking comfort from the China National People’s Congress 2014 GDP target of 7.5% and their commitment to deeper fiscal reform and a stable CNY. The rally continued in Asia today after strong retail sales (1.2% vs. 0.5% exp) and trade balance data (highs .9033). Today’s market focus will be on the ECB/BOE monetary policy meetings where the majority of Bloomberg economists expect no change in the interest rate settings.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.



EUR/USD Intraday. ALL EYES ON THE E.C.B. TODAY.

Pivot: 1.3730, R1 1.37526, R2 1.37718, R3 1.38136, S1 1.37108, S2 1.36882, S3 1.36464 (All pivots are daily 5 pm Ny).

Support Levels: Minor 1.3700/05, Very Minor 1.3680/85, Minor/Medium 1.3640/55 zone.

Resistance Levels: Minor 1.3785/95, Medium 1.3820/35 zone, Minor 1.3890/00.

View: We are happy to let the ECB pass today before trading, the 1.3775/90 area looks toppy on the topside (1.3825/35 max.), the 1.3640/55 zone should limit the downside, with 1.3700/05, and 1.3680/85 areas to watch in front.

Technical Comment: The dailies are again similar to the previous day (easing), the 4H's are languishing (the Stochs are rising though), the 1H's are slightly bearish.

GBP/USD Intraday: THE CABLE FIRMS ON THE PMI DATA, B.O.E. EYED TODAY.

Pivot: 1.67068, R1 1.67574, R2 1.67928, R3 1.68788, S1 1.66714, S2 1.66207, S3 1.65347.

Support Levels: Very Minor 1.6675/85, Minor 1.6640/45, Minor/Medium 1.6615/25, Minor 1.6580/85.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium 1.6745/50, Minor 1.6770/ 75, 1.6820/25.

View: We are happy to sit the Cable out with the BOE today but note recent sound resistance between 1.6745/75 and support in the 1.6640/55 area below. We think these zones should contain again today.

Technical Comment: The dailies have a mildly positive tone but lack momentum, the 4H's are easing a touch (althought the MACD is still reasonably firm and DI+ is above DI-), the 1H's are slipping.

USD/JPY Intraday: THE USD/JPY EDGES HIGHER AS RISK APPETITE RETURNS.

Pivot: 102.324, R1 102.53, R2 102.758, R3 103.192, S1 102.096, S2 101.89, S3 101.456.

Support Levels: Very Minor 102.25/30, Extremely Minor 102.10/15, 101.95/00, Very Minor 101.70/75, Minor 101.20/25.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium 102.60/70, 102.80/95 zone, Minor 103.40/45.

View: The Usd/jpy is looking very strong but we note the good resistance areas nearby from here to 102.95. Spec shorts could play of these with a stop above 103.00. We think 102.30/90 should apply pre NFP but note the upside momentum.

Technical Comment: The dailies are rising (Macd/signal line buy alert at hand), the 4H's point to more upside in the Usd/jpy (ADX very high), the 1H's are also strong.

AUD/USD Intraday: FIRM RETAIL SALES AND TRADE DATA BOOST THE AUSSIE.

Pivot: .89724, R1 .90098, R2 .90344, R3 .90964, S1 .89478, S2 .89104, S3 .88484.

Support Levels: Very Minor .8990/00, .8965/70, .8930/35, Minor .8900/05.

Resistance Levels: Medium/Major .9040/50, .9080/90, Very Minor .9115/20.

View: The Aussie has found it hard work above .9025 in recent times, we think the Aussie will consolidate in a .8985/.9035-45 type range today.

Technical Comment: The dailies are rising strongly, the 4H's also point to Aud/usd strength (the Stochs are nearing the o/bght zone), the 1H's are turning lower (the RSI is leaving the sell zone).

 

[MahiFX]

The Daily Score - 17 Mar 2014

By MahiFX
Market Summary

Moderate gains in the JPY and CHF were seen on Friday as investors continue to seek the protection of safe haven currencies over the concerns in Crimea. Initial results today indicate that 95% of voters in Crimea have chosen to leave the Ukraine joining Russia in a referendum that the E.U. and the U.S. have deemed illegal. So far the Usd/jpy has continued to hold the key 101.20 level however. Gold has rallied to highs around $US1392 an ounce, levels last seen in Sept. 2013. In Asia Chinese authorities announced over the weekend to widen the USD/CNY trading band to +/- 2% (from +/- 1%) in a widely anticipated move, this action should make it easier to tune interest rate settings as capital flows are liberalised. The Aussie found buying interest under 90c twice since our Friday report (lows .8992, last .9030), rallies have failed to breach .9050 so far. The Euro firmed to 1.3937 on Friday as the USD fell out of favour on a poor University of Michigan survey of consumer confidence outturn (79.9 vs. 82 exp.), PPI data also disappointed. The Cable bottomed out under 1.6590 before trading up to the 1.6650 area.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: THE EURO FIRMS ON POOR U.S. DATA

Pivot: 1.38999, R1 1.39519, R2 1.39894, R3 1.4079, S1 1.38624, S2 1.38103, S3 1.37208 (All pivots are daily 5 pm Ny).

Support Levels: Very Minor 1.3890/95, 1.3875/80, Minor/Medium 1.3840/45, Medium 1.3820/35 zone.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.3915/20, 1.3935/40, Minor/Medium 1.3965/75.

View: We will leave the Euro for today, Friday's rally was impressive, we are thinking a 1.3880/1.3940 type range for today.

Technical Comment: The dailies are mixed (the MACD and DMI point to Euro upside, the RSI is flat, the Stochs are falling), the 4H's have a firm bias but are ambling, the 1H's are drifting lower.

GBP/USD Intraday: STUBBORN BUYING INTEREST UNDER 1.6600 IN THE CABLE

Pivot: 1.66308, R1 1.66747, R2 1.66966, R3 1.67623, S1 1.66089, S2 1.65651, S3 1.64993.

Support Levels: Very Minor 1.6580/85, Minor 1.6565/70, Very Minor 1.6545/50, 1.6505/15.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.6650/55, Extremely Minor 1.6665/70, 1.6700/05, Minor 1.6715/25.

View: Cable buyers again swooped under 1.6600 (lows 85/90), we see this move being capable of seeing 1.6685 and possibly 1.6710/15 over the next 24 hours. 1.6650/55 caps for now.

Technical Comment: The dailies are drifting (the Stochs are firming a touch), the 4H's offer little (have a slight firming bias), the 1H's are also tracking sideways (the Stochs+RSI are sliding).

USD/JPY Intraday: 101.15/20 PIVOTAL TO FURTHER JPY GAINS.

Pivot: 101.482, R1 101.754, R2 102.151, R3 102.819, S1 101.086, S2 100.814, S3 100.145.

Support Levels: Minor/Medium 101.20/25, 100.75/85.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 101.85/90, 101.95/00, 102.10/15, Minor 102.20/30, Minor/Medium 102.40/55 zone.

View: We will trim additional longs bought from 101.20/30 in the 101.75/85 area, balance retained for 102.10/20, stops still under 100.70.

Technical Comment: The dailies are slipping (the Stochs are o/sold, the RSI has ticked up), the 4H's are swinging higher, the 1H's are firming.

AUD/USD Intraday: BUYING INTEREST UNDER 90C SUPPORTS THE AUD/USD.

Pivot: .90245, R1 .90521, R2 .90771, R3 .91297, S1 .89995, S2 .89719, S3 .89192.

Support Levels: Minor/Medium .8985/95, Extremely Minor .8965/70, .8935/40, Medium/Major .8920/30.

Resistance Levels: Minor .9045/50, Very Minor .9080/90, Minor/Medium .9105/15, Medium .9125/35.

View: We are looking for the .8990/.9050 range to largely contain but favour topside pushs overall with .9070 in view.

Technical Comment: The dailies are mixed (the Stochs and RSI are firming though), the 4H's are edging higher, the 1H's are slowly rising (the MACD is featureless/flat, the ADX is low).

 

[MahiFX]

The Daily Score - 18 Mar 2014

Market Summary

The dollar eased against most of the majors yesterday, the slide was more prominent against he risk currencies. These rallied following a lack of any military or diplomatic escalation following Crimea’s vote in favor of secession. The Aussie continued yesterdays rally to highs around .9110 in Asia today following the release of the RBA minutes where the bank noted ‘improved economic conditions evident across a range of household and business indicators’. Strong Aud/jpy buying has been seen over the past 24 hours; so far the Usd/jpy has rallied to 101.95 highs. Major global equity bourses were marked higher on the improved sentiment (DAX +1.37%, CAC +1.32%, S&P 500 +0.96%), whilst gold reversed some of its impressive 2014 gains, currently down $US31 from yesterdays $US1392 highs. Both the Euro and Cable traded within recent ranges (Euro 1.3880-1.3948, Cable 1.6604-1.6665), this was despite the final Feb. Euro zone CPI being revised down to 0.7% (0.8% exp). The German ZEW survey and U.S. housing starts feature today.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: GERMAN ZEW SURVEY THE FEATURE TODAY

Pivot: 1.39164, R1 1.39533, R2 1.39847, R3 1.40531, S1 1.38849, S2 1.3848, S3 1.37797 (All pivots are daily 5 pm Ny).

Support Levels: Minor 1.3875/80, Minor/Medium 1.3840/45, Medium 1.3820/35 zone.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 1.3945/50, Minor/Medium 1.3965/75, Minor 1.3995/1.4005, Very Minor 1.4015/20.

View: We think that the Euro will be contained within 1.3880-1.3970 before the FOMC. Overall the bias remains to the upside at present.

Technical Comment: The dailies are firm overall, the 4H's look similar, the 1H's point to additional Euro upside but lack follow through in Asia.

GBP/USD Intraday: CARNEY SPEECH EYED

Pivot: 1.66357, R1 1.66667, R2 1.66968, R3 1.67579, S1 1.66056, S2 1.65746, S3 1.65135.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 1.6605/10, Very Minor 1.6580/85, Minor 1.6565/70, Very Minor 1.6545/50, 1.6505/15.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.6665/70, Extremely Minor 1.6700/05, Minor 1.6715/25.

View: Like the Euro we see the Cable being contained pre the FOMC, we favour an upside bias with buyers lurking between 1.6585/1.6605, on the topside 1.6685/1.6715 is likely to contain.

Technical Comment: The dailies are a mixed bag (the Stochs are the firmest, the MACD is softening), the 4H's yield little, the 1H's give little away also (although DI+ is rising).

USD/JPY Intraday: RISK APPETITE SEES THE USD/JPY TRADE TO 101.95.

Pivot: 101.64, R1 102.004, R2 102.236, R3 102.832, S1 101.408, S2 101.044, S3 100.448.

Support Levels: Very Minor 101.50/55, Minor/Medium 101.20/25, 100.75/85.

Resistance Levels: Minor 101.95/00, Very Minor 102.10/15, Minor 102.20/30, Minor/Medium 102.40/55 zone.

View: We have trimmed longs here, noting the improved risk sentiment we are thinking a 101.50/102.10-20 type range pre the FOMC. Will cuts the residual longs through 101.15 or at 102.15.

Technical Comment: The dailies are showing a mild improvement (DI- is falling, the Stochs are close to leaving the o/sold zone), the 4H's are mixed (flat RSI, falling Stochs, improving MACD), the 1H's are easing.

AUD/USD Intraday: RISK SENTIMENT IMPROVEMENT SEES THE AUSSIE CHALLENGE RES. ABOVE 91C.

Pivot: .90624, R1 .91227, R2 .91584, R3 .92544, S1 .90267, S2 .89664, S3 .88704.

Support Levels: Minor .9045/50, Extremely Minor .9020/25, Very Minor .9010/15, Minor/Medium .8985/95, Extremely Minor .8965/70.

Resistance Levels: Medium/Major .9105/15, .9125/35.

View: The Aussie's run was stronger than anticipated, the buy bias was warranted though. Strong res. lvls are noted nearby (.9105/15, .9125/35, we are looking for a .9050-.9130 pre the FOMC but think the topside is under threat.

Technical Comment: The dailies look strong (the ADX is low though), the 4H's whilst firm on balance are slowing (the Stochs and DI+ are falling), the 1H's are mixed (the Stochs are o/sold).

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[MahiFX]

The Daily Score - 19 Mar 2014

Market Summary

The Kiwi and Aussie were again the standout performers over the last 24 hours as the key risk currencies benefitted from improved sentiment over the tensions in Crimea as the Russian president eased fears of moves to claim fresh territory in the Ukraine. The Aud/usd has rallied to familiar resistance at the .9130/40 level (highs .9138), whilst the kiwi has rallied to highs of .8641. The Euro almost repeated the prior days’ range (trading 1.3880-1.3942), the German ZEW survey undershot expectations at 46.6 (vs. 52 exp). The Cable traded to lows of 1.6545 its lowest level in over a month. All eyes will be on the FOMC today where expectations are for a continuation of the $US10B reduction in monthly asset purchases. Focus will be on the Fed forward guidance as the U.S. unemployment rate nears the 6.5% threshold (last 6.7% in Feb.) for signaling when it will consider raising the benchmark interest rate. A move to a more qualitative approach is expected. In the U.K. the BOE minutes will also be closely watched. NZ GDP features in Asian trading tomorrow.

GBP/USD Intraday: BOE MINUTES AND THE FOMC TODAY

Pivot: 1.65955, R1 1.66451, R2 1.66975, R3 1.67994, S1 1.65432, S2 1.64936, S3 1.63916.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 1.6580/85, Minor 1.6545/50, Very Minor1.6505/15, Minor/Medium 1.6470/80.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 1.6605/10, 1.6630/35, 1.6650/55, Very Minor 1.6665/70, Extremely Minor 1.6700/05.

View: We will leave the Cable with the FOMC out today, we are thinking 1.6540-1.6670 should wrap it up (1.6505/15 max). The tone appears soft overall.

Technical Comment: The dailies have a weakening bias (the RSI is ticking up though), the 4H's are soft (Stochs aside), the 1H's are firming (Stochs aside).

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: FOMC IN FOCUS TODAY

Pivot: 1.39191, R1 1.39584, R2 1.39827, R3 1.40463, S1 1.38948, S2 1.38555, S3 1.37919 (All pivots are daily 5 pm Ny).

Support Levels: Medium 1.3875/80, Minor/Medium 1.3840/45, Medium 1.3820/35 zone.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 1.3945/50, Minor/Medium 1.3965/75, Minor 1.3995/1.4005, Very Minor 1.4015/20.

View: 1.3880 has looked solid over the last few sessions, on the topside 1.3965/75 and 1.4000 are barriers, 1.3840 would be the next decent downside support on a USD bullish FOMC.

Technical Comment: The dailies still have a firm bias, the 4H's are a touch weaker (although the Stochs are firm), the 1H's are soft as 40/50 caps.

USD/JPY Intraday: QUIET TRADING AHEAD OF THE FOMC

Pivot: 101.555, R1 101.829, R2 102.217, R3 102.879, S1 101.167, S2 100.892, S3 100.23.

Support Levels: Minor/Medium 101.20/25, 100.75/85, Minor 101.60/65, Very Minor 101.40/45.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 101.75/80, Minor 101.95/00, Very Minor 102.10/15, Minor 102.20/30, Minor/Medium 102.40/55 zone.

View: Will cut residual longs through 101.15 preparing for a range of 100.70 (perhaps 100.40) to 101.90/102.10 (perhaps 102.30) over the FOMC. Will be square over the announcement.

Technical Comment: The Usd/jpy dailies are bearish (the Stochs are o/sold), the 4H's are also soft (the Stochs are o/sold, the RSI is ticking up), the 1H's are flat to bearish.

AUD/USD Intraday: FOMC LIKELY TO SET RISK ATTITUDE TODAY

Pivot: .91086, R1 .91533, R2 .91804, R3 .92522, S1 .90815, S2 .90368, S3 .8965.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor .9100/05, Very Minor .9080/85, Minor .9045/50, Extremely Minor .9020/25, Very Minor .9010/15, Minor/Medium .8985/95.

Resistance Levels: Major .9130/40, Minor .9165/70, Medium .9210/30 zone (Mult. supp./res. and 50% Fib. of .9757-.8659).

View: The .9135 area has been challenged today but is holding advances for now. Trading over the FOMC is often fraught with difficulty, a clear break of .9135/40 should see .9165/70, .9050 would be the first decent downside barrier.

Technical Comment: The dailies retain their bullish bias (the RSI and DI+ have ticked lower though), the 4H's have begun easing, the 1H's are easing (the Stochs are o/sold though).

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[MahiFX]

The Daily Score - 20 Mar 2014

Market Summary

A broad based USD rally after the FOMC meeting this morning as the Fed delivered a more positive outlook for the U.S. economy. The more hawkish tone included an upgrade on expectations for the Fed funds rates on the back of lower projections for unemployment and an increase in the projections for core inflation in 2015. As expected the FOMC reduced their monthly asset purchases by $US10 B to $US 55 B per month. The Fed also dropped the explicit link between their future policy path and the 6.5% unemployment rate. The Euro has traded down to lows of 1.3810 from 1.3915 after the announcement. The Cable fell to lows of 1.6507 from 1.6640, whilst the Aussie slumped to lows of .9002 having failed to breach .9135/40 yesterday. Initially the Cable had rallied to ~1.6655 on the back upgraded growth forecasts in the budget, the BOE minutes noted a risk of further GBP appreciation as the U.K. economy continued to improve. The Usd/jpy rallied to highs around 102.68, up over 100 pips.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: EURO CAUGHT IN FOMC USD RALLY

Pivot: 1.38591, R1 1.39082, R2 1.39837, R3 1.41083, S1 1.37836, S2 1.37345, S3 1.36099 (All pivots are daily 5 pm Ny).

Support Levels: Minor 1.3800/10 (hori.+trend), Very Minor 1.3770/80, 1.3740/45.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.3835/45, 1.3875/80, Extremely MInor 1.3915/20.

View: While the Euro holds the 1.3800 trend-line support we favour a consolidation, we note likely resistance at 1.3875, a break of 1.3800 should see 1.3770. We will stay out today.

Technical Comment: The dailies have soured after after the FOMC, the 4H's are heavy (the stochs are o/sold), the 1H's are ralling as the Euro edges off its lows.

GBP/USD Intraday: ONE-WAY TRAFFIC FOR THE CABLE AFTER THE FOMC

Pivot: 1.65675, R1 1.66269, R2 1.67134, R3 1.68593, S1 1.6481, S2 1.64216, S3 1.62757.

Support Levels: Very Minor1.6505/15, Minor/Medium 1.6470/80.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 1.6540/45, Very Minor 1.6565/70, 1.6580/85, 1.6600/10.

View: We will let he market settle after a huge day, we are thinking a 1.6470-1.6590 type range over the next 24 hours.

Technical Comment: The Cabel dailies are heavy across the boardd, the 4H's are also soft (although the RSI is flat), the 1H's are recovering (the RSI is flat).

USD/JPY Intraday: THE USD/JPY RALLIES TO HIGHS NEAR 102.70 POST THE FOMC

Pivot: 102.101, R1 102.905, R2 103.487, R3 104.873, S1 101.519, S2 100.715, S3 99.329.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 102.10/15, Very Minor 101.90/00, 101.70/75, 101.50/55.

Resistance Levels: Minor 102.65/75, Very Minor 102.85/90, 103.35/45.

View: Normally it is best to let the market settel for a day or so after the FOMC so will will stand aside. We are thinkinga 101.95-102.70 range over the next 24 hours.

Technical Comment: The dailies are lifting (esp. the stochs, the MACD/RSI and DMI are still relatively soft), the 4H's are firm (although the RSI and Stochs are easing), the 1H's are falling.

AUD/USD Intraday: .9135/40 NOW A MAJOR TOP FOR THE AUSSIE AFTER THE FOMC.

Pivot: .90669, R1 .91133, R2 .91848, R3 .93027, S1 .89954, S2 .8949, S3 .88311.

Support Levels: Minor /Medium .8985/95, Very Minor .8965/70, .8935/40.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor .9045/50, Extremely Minor .9060/65, Minor .9085/90, .9100/10, Major/Critical .9130/40.

View: The outlook has soured for the Aussie after the strong rejection from .9135, we are looking for a .8985/.9065 range over the next 24 hours.

Technical Comment: The dailies have soured across the board, the 4H's are also heavy (the Stochs are o/sold), the 1H's are swinger higher indicating a near-term consolidation.

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[MahiFX]

The Daily Score - 21 Mar 2014

Market Summary

The bid USD theme continued yesterday as the market digested the FOMC statement implications, although the high yielders (Kiwi and Aussie) held well. (last .8535, .9060). The USD benefitted from a better than expected Philly Fed survey (+9 in March) and jobless claims data which held last week near the lowest levels in four months. Comments at the FOMC meeting from Fed chair Janet Yellen which indicated that tightening will occur around six months after the conclusion of the tapering programme (this is anticipated to occur in Q3 this year) also helped the firm USD tone. The Cable fell as low as 1.6480 whilst the Euro slipped to lows of 1.3748, the Aussie traded sharply higher after initially falling to .8995. The Usd/jpy consolidated within a surprisingly tight range yesterday post the initial FOMC jump (102.20-102.55, 102.68 highs after the FOMC.)

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: THE FOMC AND U.S. DATA SEE THE EURO SLIDE FURTHER

Pivot: 1.37908, R1 1.38324, R2 1.38865, R3 1.39822, S1 1.37367, S2 1.36951, S3 1.35994 (All pivots are daily 5 pm Ny).

Support Levels: Minor 1.3740/45, 1.3700/05, Very Minor 1.3680/85.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.3790/05 zone, 1.3835/45, 1.3875/80.

View: We are looking for this move to continue to 1.3800/10 and potentially 1.3825/40, we will offer in the latter zone with a stop above 1.3880 for 1.3745.

Technical Comment: The dailies are sliding (although the RSI has ticked up a touch), the 4H's are edging higher (particularly the Stochs, the MACD is still very -ve.), the 1H's are firming.

GBP/USD Intraday: THE CABLE EDGES TO LOWS UNDER 1.6500 ON A BID USD.

Pivot: 1.65174, R1 1.65545, R2 1.66056, R3 1.66938, S1 1.64663, S2 1.64292, S3 1.6341.

Support Levels: Minor/Medium 1.6470/80, Very Minor 1.6435/40, Minor 1.6395/00.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 1.6515/20, 1.6540/45, Minor 1.6565/70, Very Minor 1.6580/85, 1.6600/10.

View: We are looking for 1.6465 to 1.6565/80 in the next session, we favour selling on the topside with a stop above 1.6610 for 1.6485.

Technical Comment: The dailies are heavy (the Stochs are nearing the o/sold zone), the 4H's are edging higher, the 1H's are flat after moving higher (the MACD is still edging up).

USD/JPY Intraday: SURPRISINGLY QUIET TRADE IN THE JPY POST THE FOMC MOVE

Pivot: 102.383, R1 102.555, R2 102.72, R3 103.057, S1 102.218, S2 102.046, S3 101.709.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 102.20/25, 102.10/15, Very Minor 101.90/00, 101.70/75.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 102.50/55, Minor 102.65/75, Very Minor 102.85/90, 103.35/45.

View: We favour more consolidation today with rallies capped around 102.70, (90 max.), on the downside 101.90/102.05 should be basey with some initial support at 102.20.

Technical Comment: The dailies are mixed to firm (the ADX is low, the Stochs strong, RSI flat), the 1H's are mixed (the MACD is heavy, the RSI/Stochs are rising).

AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE BOUNCES WELL FROM UNDER 90C.

Pivot: .90287, R1 .90621, R2 .90851, R3 .91415, S1 .90057, S2 .89723, S3 .89159.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor .9050/55, .9030/35, Medium .8985/95, Very Minor .8965/70.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor .9065/70 (very close), Minor .9085/90, .9100/10, Major/Critical .9130/40.

View: The Aussie has had a solid bounce and we wouldn't bet against it, we can see potential for .9105/10 today and are thinking a .9030-9100/10 range today.

Technical Comment: The dailies are mixed (the Stochs are heavy, the RSI and DI+ are edging higher), the 4H's are improving (particularly the RSI and Stochs), the 1H's are mainly firm.

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[MahiFX]

The Daily Score - 24 Mar 2014

Market Summary

Monday's Forex trading session started off relatively quietly with players still disgesting the implications of Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen bringin forward interest rate hike expectations in the US, which last week triggered a USD rally.

AUD/USD took a knock due to a flash markit/ HSBC China purchasing managers' index recording an 8-month low in March at 48.1 suggesting manufacturing activity is contracting. Nonetheless, AUD/USD recovered, but may well get talked down later in the week by officials from the Reserve Bank of Australia.

For EUR/USD all eyes will be on ECB President Mario Draghi when he speaks on Tuesday. Traders will be looking for clues about monetary policy and whether it will be relaxed or not. In terms of potential market moving data – various PMIs are being released today from France, Germany and the Eurozone.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: EUR AWAITS CATALYSTS

Pivot: S1: 1.3769, S2: 1.3745, S3: 1.3700, Pivot: 1.3790, R1: 1.3814, R2: 1.3835, R3: 1.3880

Support Levels: Minor: 1.3768, 1.3763 Major: 1.3780, 1.3745, 1.3735

Resistance Levels: Minor: 1.3819, 1.3847 Major: 1.3809, 1.3862

View: The EUR/USD rally appears broken on the dailies following a breach of an important trend line, but the trend is gently slopping upwards on the hourlies with PMIs and ECB's Mario Draghi's speech pending, which are likely to act as catalysts for direction.

Technical Comment: Early in the week traders will be looking to see if key support at 1.3780-1.3763 can hold with resistance placed around 1.3817. The 1-HR RSI is in neutral around 52. Both 1-HR MACD and STOCHS have buy signals, though they also look close to reversing on that position.

GBP/USD Intraday: TREADING WATER

Pivot: S1: 106467, S2: 1.6449, S3: 1.6404, Pivot: 1.6494 R1: 1.6512, R2: 1.6539, R3: 1.6583

Support Levels: Minor: 1.6460, 1.6453 Major: 1.6397

Resistance Levels: Minor: 1.6515, 1.6531 Major: 1.6504, 1.6565

View: On the dailies GBP/USD wilted in the face of a strong USD and remains in a down trend for the time being, but looks steady on the hourlies.

Technical Comment: Support kicks in around 1.6460 and resistance occurs around 1.6515. The 1-HR RSI is neutral around 45. The 1-HR STOCHS and MACD have buy signals.

USD/JPY Intraday: LOOKING FOR A BREAK-OUT

Pivot: S1: 102.04, S2: 101.81, S3: 101.37, Pivot: 102.25, R1: 102.48, R2: 102.69, R3: 103.12

Support Levels: Minor: 102.40, 102.37 Major: 102.49, 102.05

Resistance Levels: Minor: 102.85 Major: 102.66, 102.79

View: On the dailies USD/JPY are looking somewhat range bound, but on the hourlies have rallied to challenge key over-head resistance at 102.60-102.66.

Technical Comment: USD/JPY are in a range of 101.20-102.66, which has been successfully breached once. The 1-HR RSI is in neutral at 49. The 1-HR MACD is giving mixed signals and 1-HR STOCKS has generated a strong buy signal.

AUD/USD Intraday: DEFYING WEAK CHINESE DATA

Pivot: S1: 0.9043, S2: 0.9004, S3: 0.8936, Pivot: 0.9072, R1: 0.9110, R2: 0.9139, R3: 0.9207

Support Levels: Minor: 0.9065, 0.9049 Major: 0.9060

Resistance Levels: Minor: 0.9114 Major: 0.9101 0.9109

View: On the dailies AUD/USD has been creeping upwards and on the hourlies recovered swiftly from a fall induced by weak Chinese PMI data. For the bulls there is a risk that officials from the Reserve Bank of Australia will take the opportunity to talk AUD down as they're scheduled to give speeches this week.

Technical Comment: Support for the pair held at 0.9060 with resistance at 0.9101 potentially in the cross-hairs. The 1-HR RSI is neutral at 56. The 1-HR MACD has a sell signal and STOCHS a buy signal.

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[MahiFX]

The Daily Score - 26 Mar 2014

MahiFX Market Summary

Comments from central bank members dictated flow sentiment yesterday. The Euro slid heavily to lows under 1.3750 after ECB president Draghi said the ECB was ‘ready to take additional measures if needed’ along with ‘short-term real rates to become more negative’. Hawkish comments from the Fed’s Plosser over the future Fed. interest rate levels also contributed to the slide. The Euro has since bounced back to trade as high as 1.3844 however. In the U.K. data showed Feb. CPI in line with expectations at 1.7% YoY. U.K. house prices were seen growing more strongly than expected at 6.8% YoY in January (5.7% exp.), the Cable has last traded at 1.6535 off lows around 1.6480. The Australian dollar has continued its climb to .9184 against the USD from yesterday's lows of .9120, the Aussie has been buoyed late in the session by comments from the RBA governor Stevens who said amongst other comments that ' the lower $A, and improved global conditions to help growth'. The Usd/jpy continued its recent range-trading pattern (102.09-102.49). U.S durable goods orders data will be released today.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: EUR SINKS BRIEFLY ON DRAGHI COMMENTS

Pivot: 1.38075, R1 1.38661, R2 1.39058, R3 1.40041, S1 1.37678, S2 1.37092, S3 1.36109 (All pivots are daily 5 pm Ny).

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 1.3765/70, Medium 1.3740/45.

Resistance Levels: Minor 1.3845/50, 1.3875/80, Very Minor 1.3915/20.

View: The Euro looks 1.3745-1.3845 at the moment, Draghis comments again saw 1.3750 tested yesterday. We favour an easing toward 1.3790 (1.3770 max.), with 45/50 capping.

Technical Comment: The dailies are moderately soft (Stochs aside), the 4H's are mildly positive (the RSI is easing and DI- is above DI+ however), the 1H's are soft.

GBP/USD Intraday: CPI IN LINE WITH EXPECTATIONS

Pivot: 1.65201, R1 1.6559, R2 1.65883, R3 1.66565, S1 1.64908, S2 1.64519, R3 1.63837.

Support Levels: Very Minor 1.6455/60, 1.6435/40, Minor 1.6395/00.

Resistance Levels: Minor 1.6540/50, 1.6565/70, Very Minor 1.6580/85, 1.6600/10.

View: The tech's are a mixed bag. While 1.6480 holds we favour a slow push to 1.6565 and 1.6580, no bias here. We will leave today.

Technical Comment: The daily MACD and DMI are soft, the Stochs are rising, the 4H's are firm (although the RSI and Stochs have lost their upside momentum), the 1H's are heavy.

SD/JPY Intraday: MORE RANGE TRADING LIKELY

Pivot: 102.282, R1 102.467, R2 102.673, R3 103.064, S1 102.076, S2 101.891, S3 101.50.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 102.05/10, Minor 101.90/00, Very Minor 101.70/75.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 102.50/55, Minor/Medium 102.65/75, Very Minor 102.85/90, 103.35/45.

View: The tech's again lack momentum, we think 102.10-50 again today (102.00-102.65/70 max.) could trade either way with 35 pip stops.

Technical Comment: The dailies are again languishing, the 4H's are slightly soft (DMI aside), the 1H's are easing lower currently.

AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE SETS FRESH 2014 HIGHS ABOVE .9180.

Pivot: .91533, R1 .91868, R2 .92077, R3 .92621, S1 .91324, S2 .90989, S3 .90445.

Support Levels: Very Minor .9135/40, .9105/10, Extremely Minor .9060/65, Minor .9045/55.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor .9200/05, Minor .9220/30, Minor/Medium .9265/70.

View: We continue to favour the Aussie higher with a 1+ week goal of .9265/70, we will look to add to longs ahead of .9155 and .9140, stops under .9085.

Technical Comment: The dailies continue to favour a bullish outlook (the Stochs are nearing the o/bght zone), the 4H's support the view, the hourlies also look healthy.

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[MahiFX]

The Daily Score - 27 Mar 2014

Market Summary
The Australian dollar was the continued standout performer of the majors yesterday as it rallied to set fresh 4mth highs of .9245 against the USD. The Aussie continued to enjoy positive sentiment after yesterday’s upbeat speech from the RBA governor Glenn Stevens. Stevens said that whilst resource investment spending will be easing he expects that most of the slack will be taken up by exports and other parts of private demand, whilst simultaneously not accusing the currency of near-term overvaluation. The Cable lifted to highs around 1.6597 from lows near the 1.6510 level, this came as the BOE’s Weale said that the U.K. economic growth was “going quite well” and that the bank was starting to see wage growth pick up. In the U.S. durable goods orders increased 2.2% although the details were relatively weak. The Markit flash services PMI rose to 55.5 in March (vs. 53 in Feb, 54.2 exp.). The Usd/jpy has finally broken out is familiar 102.00/50 range in Asian trading setting lows so far around 101.70. Today’s data release calendar includes U.K. retail sales, U.S. Q4 GDP and U.S. pending home sales.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: THE EURO EBBS LOWER IN QUIET TRADING

Pivot: 1.37955, R1 1.38142, R2 1.38467, R3 1.38979, S1 1.3763, S2 1.37443, S3 1.36931 (All pivots are daily 5 pm Ny).

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 1.3765/70, Medium 1.3740/45.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 1.3805/10, 1.3820/25, Minor 1.3845/50, 1.3875/80.

View: We are looking for a lower drifting range today with rallies capped around 1.3810 (20/25 max.) and dips being supported towards 1.3760 and more importantly 1.3745/50 for now.

Technical Comment: The dailies are still soft, the 4H's are also heavy (the ADX is high, the RSI has ticked up a touch), the 1H's are mixed.

GBP/USD Intraday: THE GBP/USD RALLIES TO HIGHS NEAR 1.6600 ON BOE WEALE COMMENTS

Pivot: 1.65625, R1 1.66154, R2 1.6650, R3 1.67375, S1 1.65279, S2 1.6475, S3 1.63875.

Support Levels: Very Minor 1.6545/50, 1.6505/10, 1.6480/85, 1.6455/60.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.6595/05, Extremely Minor 1.6615/25, Minor 1.6650/55.

View: The Cable looks better today, we favour buying dips at 1.6565/70 and 1.6545 for 1.6650, stops under 1.6500 though. Be wary with orders over UK retail sales. No huge conviction here.

Technical Comment: The dailies are improving led by the Stochs, the 4H's are firm, the 1H's are firm (although the Macd line has recently dropped below the signal line).

USD/JPY Intraday: THE USD/JPY FINALLY BREAKS ITS RECENT RANGE, 101.70 LOWS SO FAR.

Pivot: 102.132, R1 102.387, R2 102.729, R3 103.326, S1 101.79, S2 101.534, S3 100.937.

Support Levels: Very Minor 101.70/75, 101.50/55, Minor/Medium 101.20/25.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 102.10/15, Minor 102.50/55, Minor/Medium 102.65/70.

View: The Jpy finally broke out of its 102.00/50 range, we will take the bearish cue to sell at 102.05/10 for a re-visit to 101.70, then 101.55, small trade, adding larger at 30/35, stops above 102.70, not a conviction trade.

Technical Comment: The break of 102.00 has seen the dailies deteriorate, the 4H's are heavy across the board, the 1H's are improving (the RSI has given a recent buy alert, the MACD is still negative though).

AUD/USD Intraday: RELENTLESS AUSSIE SURGES TO FRESH 2014 HIGHS (.9245).

Pivot: .92083, R1 .92622, R2 .92989, R3 .93895, S1 .91716, S2 .91177, S3 .90271.

Support Levels: Very Minor .9195/05, Minor .9165/75, Very Minor .9135/40, .9105/10.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor .9245/50, Minor/Medium .9265/70, .9280/85.

View: The Aussie has almost reached our 1 week target in a day (.9265/70), whilst the momentum looks good we will look to take profit on most our longs here squaring by .9260, will try a spec short at .9265 and 75/80 stops above .9300 after a good run and o/bght daily tech's.

Technical Comment: The dailies are very strong (the Stochs are nearing the o/bght bounds), the 4H's are firm (although the Stochs are easing and starting to leave the o/bght bound), the 1H's are mixed to firm.

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[MahiFX]

The Daily Score - 01 Apr 2014

Market Summary

Risk currencies and assets received a boost from US Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen who said on Monday there was still a need for the monetary stimulus to continue for some time to combat US unemployment and spur the economic recovery. USD was weaker as a result.

The EUR's upside potential was also clipped by the March Eurozone inflation estimated at 0.5%, which could pressure the ECB to create more monetary stimulus. In Japan the TANKAN index missed most economists estimates.

Key events scheduled for Tuesday include the release of UK manufacturing PMI, the US ISM manufacturing PMI. ECOFIN meetings are also scheduled for today. However, in the run up to the ECB's press conference on Thursday and Non Farm Payrolls on Friday currencies are likely to stay within relatively tight ranges.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: CPI PRESSURING ECB TO ACT

Pivot: S1: 1.3722, S2: 1.3675, S3: 1.3584, Pivot: 1.3765 R1: 1.3812, R2: 1.3856, R3: 1.3946

Support Levels: Minor: 1.3745, 1.3739 Major: 1,3713, 1.3707

Resistance Levels: Minor: 1.3794, 1.3798 Major: 1.3809, 1.3837

View: On the dailies EUR/USD has clawed back some losses, partly helped by dovish comments from Fed boss Yellen and weak inflation numbers from the Eurozone suggesting the ECB may need to act with more stimulus to combat deflation.

Technical Comment: During the Asian session the pair mainly flat-lined with 1.3769 providing effective support. During the European session support round 1.3745 and 1.3707-13 are likely to prove more solid. Resistance at 1.3776 was taken out with 1.3791-1.3794 the next levels up. The 1-HR RSI is in neutral around 60. The 1-HR MACD has a sell signal and STOCHS have a buy signal.

GBP/USD Intraday: WANTING TO GO HIGHER

Pivot: S1: 1.6621, S2: 1.6580, S3: 1.6507, Pivot: 1.6652, R1: 1.6693, R2: 1.6725, R3: 1.6797

Support Levels: Minor: 1.6647, 1.6630 Major: 1.6604

Resistance Levels: Minor: 1.6680 Major: 1.6713

View: On the dailies GBP/USD continues to make upward progress helped in part by weaker sentiment towards USD and EUR. On the hourlies the trend is also up.

Technical Comment: Support can be found around 1.6647, 1.6630, 1.6604 and resistance at 1.6680, and 1.6713. The 1-HR RSI is neutral around 56. The 1-HR STOCHS and MACD have sell signals suggesting a short period of consolidation or even a small pull back could be in order in an otherwise bullish trend.

USD/JPY Intraday: SAFE HAVEN CURRENCIES OUT OF FAVOUR

Pivot: S1: 102.86, S2: 102.51, S3: 101.86, Pivot: 103.15, R1: 103.51, R2: 103.79, R3: 104.43

Support Levels: Minor: 103.07, 102.56 Major: 102.41

Resistance Levels: Minor: 104.02 Major: 103.30

View: On the dailies USD/JPY continues to strengthen and is now challenging the top of its range with safe haven currencies losing their appeal due to ECB and People's Bank of China stimulus speculation along with dovish comments from Fed boss Yellen. The trend is up on the hourlies as well.

Technical Comment: USD/JPY is close to the top of its 101.26-103.30 range, which seems likely to be cleared with risk assets currently in favour. Nearby support can be found at 103.07, 102.56 and 102.41. Resistance can be seen at 103.30 and 104.02. The 1-HR RSI is in neutral at 59 but quickly heading towards over-sold. The 1-HR MACD and 1-HR STOCKS are giving weak buy signals. USD/JPY may face some consolidation, but otherwise the trend remains upwards, which could be disrupted by a strong NFP number on Friday, should that occur.

AUD/USD Intraday: GLOBAL STIMULUS HOPES BOOST AUD

Pivot: S1: 0.9229, S2: 0.91940, S3: 9134, Pivot: 0.9253, R1: 0.9288, R2: 0.9372, R3: 0.9372

Support Levels: Minor: 0.9262, 0.9258 and 0.9239 Major: 0.9218

Resistance Levels: Minor: 0.9293 Major: 0.9299

View: On the dailies AUD/USD continues to firm on stimulus hopes around the world and mixed PMI readings from China with the official one for March at 50.3, from 50.2 the month before. The HSBC and Markit PMI slid to 48.0 from 48.5 suggesting a contraction in manufacturing. On the hourlies the pair are in a consolidation pattern

Technical Comment: Support can be seen at around 0.9262, 0.9258 and 0.9239 with resistance placed at 0.9293 and 0.9299. After flirting with over-bought levels the 1-HR RSI is neutral at 53. The 1-HR MACD and STOCHS have sell signals implying a period of consolidation while waiting for further catalysts.

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[MahiFX]

The Daily Score - 03 Apr 2014

Market Summary
The current comfort with risk by the markets is likely to be tested over the next two days with the ECB press conference and US ISM non-manufacturing PMI later today and with US NFP tomorrow. Any readings widely outside expectations are likely to cause big moves in currencies such as USD and EUR.

In the meantime, USD/JPY continued to rally in Asia with safe havens out of favour and concerns that the BoJ may step up its monetary stimulus as the Japanese economy deals with a hike in the sales tax to 8% from 5% previously.

Some of the commodity currencies such as AUD/USD pulled back due to profit taking and concerns that the Reserve Bank of Australia, which is wary of currency strength, could talk it down.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: ALL EYES ON THE ECB]

Pivot: S1: 1.37804, S2: 1.37134, S3: 1.36464, Pivot: 1.37804, R1: 1.37804, R2: 1.38474, R3: 1.39144

Support Levels: Minor: 1.3751, 1.3745-6 Major: 1,3713

Resistance Levels: Minor: 1.3770, 1.3793, 1.3827 Major: 1.3811

View: On the dailies EUR/USD pulled back in Asian trade ahead of the ECB conference this afternoon (European time). While market participants don't expect any stimulus announcements from the ECB they are wary that EUR could be talked down. On the hourlies the downward trend was starting to level out in the early European session.

Technical Comment: The ECB's press conference could cause considerable volatility with support levels placed at 1.3751, 1.3745-6 and 1.3713 with resistance at 1.3770, 1.3793 and 1.3811. The 1-HR RSI is in neutral at 35 after nearly going into oversold. The 1-HR MACD has a sell signal that looks close to reversing and STOCHS has a buy signal. There could be some buying of EUR/USD ahead of the ECB press conference, but moves are likely to be restricted ahead of the news.

GBP/USD Intraday: TREADING WATER

Pivot: S1: 1.66100, S2: 1.65938, S3: 1.65507, Pivot: 1.66369, R1: 1.66531, R2: 1.66800, R3: 1.67231

Support Levels: Minor: 1.6583 Major: 1.6624, 1.6604

Resistance Levels: Minor: 1.6655-8 Major: 1.6680, 1.6713

View: On the dailies GBP/USD is consolidating with some upward movement on hourlies. The pair have been relatively stable with the focus on other currencies.

Technical Comment: The were some attempts to take-out resistance at 1.6655-8, and although the level was breached, the move was not sustained. Resistance at 1.6680 still looks stubbornly difficult to challenge. Support can be seen at 1.6604 and 1.6583. The 1-HR RSI is neutral around 57. The 1-HR STOCHS has a weak sell signal and MACD a weak buy signal with the indicators providing little in the way of conviction on direction.

USD/JPY Intraday: PAUSE LIKELY AHEAD OF NFP

Pivot: S1: 103.669, S2: 103.454, S3: 103.106, Pivot: 103.802, R1: 104.017, R2: 104.150, R3: 104.498

Support Levels: Minor: 103.70 Major: 103.63, 103.34

Resistance Levels: Minor: 103.99-104.02 Major: 104.14, 104.58

View: On the dailies the trend remains upward for USD/JPY with resistance levels continuing to be brushed aside with ease. On the hourlies the trend also remains upward.

Technical Comment: Relatively strong resistance is clustered around 103.99-104.02, which the pair attempted but failed to clear during the Asian session. Nonetheless, it does look vulnerable to being taken out with next levels of resistance placed at 104.14 and 104.58. Support can be seen at 103.70, 103.63. The 1-HR RSI is back neutral at 57 following a brief period in over-sold territory. The 1-HR MACD is giving mixed signals and 1-HR STOCKS a sell signal. The pair are close to needing to take a breather and are likely to consolidate ahead of NFP on Friday along with most USD crosses.

AUD/USD Intraday: TRADERS WARY OF RBA

Pivot: S1: 0.92261, S2: 0.92039, S3: 0.91630, Pivot: 0.92448, R1: 0.92670, R2: 0.92857, R3: 0.93266

Support Levels: Minor: 0.9195 Major: 0.9218-0.9222

Resistance Levels: Minor: 0.9251, 0.9276 Major: 0.9251

View: On the dailies AUD/USD appears to be in consolidation mode still with some profit taking in evidence and also with traders wary of the Reserve Bank of Australia talking the currency down if it were to strengthen. On the hourlies the most recent trend has been downwards.

Technical Comment: There were some unsuccessful attempts to sustainably take-out support at 0.9218-0.9222 with further tests likely and with 0.9195 in the cross hairs. Resistance can be found at 0.9235, 09251 and 0.9276. The 1-HR RSI is neutral at 35, but getting close to oversold. Both 1-HR MACD and STOCHS have weak sell signals.

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[MahiFX]

The Daily Score - 04 Apr 2014

Market Summary
Friday's session looks set for some intense volatility later on with the release of US Non Farm Payrolls with bullish expectations for a relatively strong number of 200,000 jobs created in March. Given recent poor runs of data – largely blamed on the weather – forex markets and USD bulls in particular are vulnerable to disappointment.

EUR/USD is still reeling from the surprisingly dovish tone set by the European Central Bank on Thursday when its President Mario Draghi floated the possibility of unconventional stimulus measures. Some analysts expect these actions to be enacted before the end of the year.

GBP/USD took a knock after strong non manufacturing ISM data from the US at 53.1 in March, compared with 51.6 in February. Meanwhile USD/JPY attempted to build a higher base above 104, but failed.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: FOCUS SHIFTS TO NFP

Pivot: S1: 1.3676, S2: 1.3633, S3: 1.3525, Pivot: 1.3741 R1: 1.3785, R2: 1.3849, R3: 1.3957

Support Levels: Minor: 1.3678, 1.3647 Major: 1,3486

Resistance Levels: Minor: 1,3722, 1.3732 Major: 1.3757

View: On the dailies EUR/USD is clearly breaking down following dovish comments from the ECB at Thursday's press conference. The downward trend is being confirmed on the hourlies. The next major test for the pair will be US NFP – a strong number is likely to see EUR/USD retreat further.

Technical Comment: Support levels are placed around 1.3678, 1.3647 with resistance pegged at 1,3722. 1.3732 and 1.3757. The 1-HR RSI is nudging into oversold territory at 29. The 1-HR MACD is undecided and STOCHS has a strong buy signal. Ahead of NFP the market is likely to consolidate with a big burst of volatility once it is released.

GBP/USD Intraday: BACK IN A DOWNTREND

Pivot: S1: 1.6558, S2: 1.6519, S3: 1.6428, Pivot: 1.6609, R1: 1.6649, R2: 1.6700, R3: 1.6791

Support Levels: Minor: 1.6567, 1.6563, 1.6543 Major: 1.6516

Resistance Levels: Minor: 1.6597, 1.6603 Major: 1.6624, 1.6649

View: On the dailies GBP/USD has pulled back recently due to a stronger USD with the hourlies range bound following a big fall on Thursday.

Technical Comment: Support is placed at 1.6567, 1.6563, 1.6543 and 1.6516. Resistance can be found at 1.6597, 1.6603, 1.6624. The 1-HR RSI is neutral around 37. The 1-HR STOCHS has mixed signals and MACD a weak buy signal.

USD/JPY Intraday: RALLY STALLS AHEAD OF NFP

Pivot: S1: 103.78, S2: 103.64, S3: 103.34, Pivot: 103.94 R1: 104.08, R2: 104.24, R3: 104.55

Support Levels: Minor: 103.70 Major: 103.63, 103.34

Resistance Levels: Minor: 103.99-104.02 Major: 104.14, 104.58

View: On the dailies the upward trend for USD/JPY has stalled with resistance around 104 proving difficult to clear. On the hourlies the pair are flat lining. NFP numbers are likely to see a break-out either well above 104 or a retreat significantly below that number.

Technical Comment: Resistance is clustered around 103.99-104.02 and is proving too much for USD/JPY to clear for the time being. Above that resistance is placed at 104.14 and 104.58. Support can be seen at 103.70, 103.63. The 1-HR RSI is neutral at 47. The 1-HR MACD and 1-HR STOCKS have weak sell signals.

AUD/USD Intraday: CHINA SPENDING SUPPORTIVE

Pivot: S1: 0.9207, S2: 0.9182, S3: 0.9135, Pivot: 0.9230 R1: 0.9255, R2: 0.9278, R3: 0.9326

Support Levels: Minor: 0.9195 Major: 0.9218-0.9222

Resistance Levels: Minor: 0.9251, 0.9276 Major: 0.9262

View: On the dailies AUD/USD is still consolidating, which could be disrupted by US NFP later today. AUD has received some support of late with signs China will support its economy through infrastructure development thereby creating more demand for Australian produced commodities. On the hourlies the trend is mildly firming.

Technical Comment: Resistance is placed at 0.9251 and 0.9262 with support to be found around 0.9218-22. The 1-HR RSI is neutral at 53. Both 1-HR MACD and STOCHS have weak buy signals.

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[MahiFX]

The Daily Score - 07 Apr 2014

Market Summary

During the Asian session USD retreated on many of the crosses with some disappointment that Friday's NFP wasn't stronger. The March figure showed 192,000 jobs were created, slightly below expectations.

EUR was not particularly sought after following last week's ECB press conference where the possibility of unconventional monetary policies were floated to ward off deflation. German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung said the ECB had modelled the effects on consumer prices of buying trillions of EUR.

There's very little in the way of market moving data expected for today though there is some caution towards JPY ahead of the BoJ press conference on Tuesday.

For the full Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis please visit here.

 

[MahiFX]

The Daily Score - 08 Apr 2014

The Daily Score - 8 April 2014 - Market Summary

The overriding theme in the currency markets this morning is USD weakness.

USD/JPY continues to fall back with the BoJ confirming that it is maintaining its policy of increasing the monetary base by 60 trillion to 70 trillion yen ($582-679 billion) a year ie no increase. It sees the economy recovering moderately.

EUR/USD also gained with senior policy makers at the ECB pointing out on Monday that the central bank is still a long way off from making large-scale asset purchases.

Numbers out today include UK manufacturing production, US JOLTS job openings and various Fed FOMC members are due to speak, which could trigger some action on USD crosses.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis
The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: UP ON PROMISE OF ECB INACTION

Pivot: S1: 1.3708, S2: 1.3675, S3: 1.3622, Pivot: 1.3728, R1: 1.3761, R2: 1.3781, R3: 1.3835

Support Levels: Minor: 1.3723, 1.3718 Major: 1.3697

Resistance Levels: Minor: 1,3758 Major: 1.3770

View: On the dailies EUR/USD is pushing against its down trend, which is being confirmed on the hourlies as the ECB dashes hopes of any quick monetary stimulus action.

Technical Comment: Support is placed at 1.3723, 1.3718 and 1.3697. Resistance can be seen at 1.3758, 1.3770. The 1-HR RSI is neutral at 66 and near over-sold levels. The 1-HR MACD and STOCHS have sell signals suggesting a period of consolidation or even a pull-back at some point shortly.

GBP/USD Intraday: STARTS EDGING HIGHER

Pivot: S1: 1.6574, S2: 1.6541, S3: 1.6482, Pivot: 1.6589, R1: 1.6632, R2: 1.6657, R3: 1.6715

Support Levels: Minor: 1.6603, 1.6580 Major: 1.6569

Resistance Levels: Minor: 1.6650, 1.6654, 1.6670 Major: 1.6681

View: On the dailies GBP/USD is in a consolidation pattern whilst on the hourlies it is making headway breaking out of a small consolidation pattern suggesting the possibility of further gains to come – though this morning's UK manufacturing data could boost or reverse that trend.

Technical Comment: Resistance can be seen at 1.6650, 1.6654, 1.6670 and 1.6681 while support is placed at 1.6603, 1.6580 and 1.6569. The 1-HR RSI is just moving into oversold at 71. The 1-HR STOCHS and MACD have buy signals.

USD/JPY Intraday: BOJ STANCE KEEPS JPY FIRMING

Pivot: S1: 102.831, S2: 102.765, S3: 102.368, Pivot: 103.162, R1: 103.328, R2: 103.558, R3:103.955

Support Levels: Minor: 102.41, 102.23 Major: 102.07

Resistance Levels: Minor: 103.09, 103.24 Major: 103.63

View: On the dailies USD/JPY continued notch up falls with the hourlies firmly in a down trend.

Technical Comment: Support is placed at 102.41, 102.23 and 102.07 with resistance placed at 103.09, 103.24 and 103.63. The 1-HR RSI is again nearing oversold at 31. The 1-HR MACD and 1-HR STOCKS are generating mixed signals.

AUD/USD Intraday: BREAKING THROUGH CONSOLIDATION

Pivot: S1: 0.9251, S2: 0.9232, S3: 0.9191, Pivot: 0.9273, R1: 0.9292, R2: 0.9314, R3: 0.9355

Support Levels: Minor: 0.9288, 0.9273 Major: 0.9292-0.9295

Resistance Levels: Minor: 0.9363 Major: 0.9373

View: On the dailies and hourlies AUD/USD is firming with break-outs from consolidation patterns in both time frames. However, AUD bulls should be wary of verbal intervention from the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Technical Comment: Resistance at 0.9292-0.9295 has been cleared with the pair targeting levels around 0.9363 and 0.9373 with support to be found around 0.9288 and 0.9273. The 1-HR RSI is oversold at 75. Both 1-HR MACD has as sell signal STOCHS a buy signal.

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[MahiFX]

The Daily Score - 10 Apr 2014

Market Summary
USD saw more weakness following the publication of FOMC minutes showing that the Fed is likely to wait a considerable time between the end of QE and raising interest rates – comments, which were taken as dovish by the forex markets.

AUD/USD continues to notch up a solid performance following news that Australia's unemployment rate fell to 5.8% in March from 6.1% in February.

Events to be watched today are US weekly jobs claims. Also, G20/G7 nations are due to meet today and there is always the possibility of statements over economic aims, which could influence the currency markets.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: FOMC BOOST

Pivot: S1: 1.3802, S2: 1.3750, S3: 1.3667, Pivot: 1.3832, R1: 1.3885, R2: 1.3915, R3: 1.3997

Support Levels: Minor: 1.3823, 1.3804 Major: 1.3788

Resistance Levels: Minor:1.3869 Major: 1.3856

View: On the dailies EUR/USD appears to be trying to resume its upward trend, whilst on the hourlies it is pulling back in early European trade following a spike up after the release of the FOMC minutes.

Technical Comment: Resistance can be found at 1.3856, 1.3869 and support at 1.3823, 1.3804 and 1.3788. The 1-HR RSI is neutral at 62 having retreated from over-sold levels. The 1-HR MACD and STOCHS have sell signals suggesting some consolidation or profit taking on the pair.

GBP/USD Intraday: ABOVE ITS RANGE

Pivot: S1: 1.6744, S2: 1..6696, S3: 1.6620, Pivot: 1.6772, R1: 1.6821, R2: 1.6849, R3: 1.6925

Support Levels: Minor: 1.6757, 16735 Major: 1.6709

Resistance Levels: Minor: 1.6796 Major: 1.6818

View: On the dailies GBP/USD is creeping above its range, helped yesterday by a dovish FOMC. On the hourlies the pair are pulling back following a spike up on the release of the FOMC minutes.

Technical Comment: Resistance can be seen at 1.6796 and 1.6818 Support is placed around 1.6757, 1.6735 and 1.6709. The 1-HR RSI has retreated from oversold to a neutral reading of 60. The 1-HR STOCHS has a sell signal and MACD a buy signal.

USD/JPY Intraday: NEARING KEY SUPPORT

Pivot: S1: 101.758, S2: 101.522, S3: 101.085, Pivot: 101.959, R1: 102.195, R2: 102.395, R3:102.832

Support Levels: Minor: 101.65 and 101.46. Major: 101.25 and 100.92

Resistance Levels: Minor: 101.85 Major: 102.13

View: On the dailies USD/JPY is edging closer to key support levels within a former consolidation pattern. On the hourlies the trend remains downward hampered only by key support levels.

Technical Comment: The strongest support levels of 101.25 and 100.92 representing the bottom of a former consolidation pattern remain unchallenged for the time being. Support at 101.65 is proving challenging for the pair as well. But closer support can be seen at 101.65 and 101.46. Resistance can be found at 101.85. The 1-HR RSI is neutral at 38. The 1-HR MACD and 1-HR STOCKS have sell signals.

AUD/USD Intraday: JOBS KEEP AUD RALLY ALIVE

Pivot: S1: 0.9350, S2: 0.9310, S3: 0.9246, Pivot: 0.9375, R1: 0.94147, R2: 0.9439, R3: 0.9503

Support Levels: Minor: 0.9413, 0.9402 Major: 0.9395

Resistance Levels: Minor: 0.9454, 0.9479 Major: 0.9523

View: On the dailies AUD/USD continues to rally this time boosted by strong Australian employment numbers with hourlies also in bullish form.

Technical Comment: Resistance can be found at 0.9454, 0.9479 and 0.9523. Support is placed at 0.9413, 0.9402 and 0.9395. The 1-HR RSI is neutral at 67. Both 1-HR MACD and STOCHS have weak buy signals.

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[MahiFX]

The Daily Score - 23 Apr 2014

Market Summary - by Simon Coulter of MahiFX

A sharply weaker Australian dollar was the feature of an otherwise quiet days trading in Asia. The sharp fall came on the back of a weaker than expected 2014 Q1 CPI outturn. The annual pace of underlying inflation came in at 2.6% versus expectations for a 2.9% outcome. The underlying QoQ number printed at 0.5% vs. 0.7% exp. The Aud/usd has fallen as low as .9270 from highs around .9377 before the number. The HSBC/Markit China flash PMI measure of China’s factory activity rose to 48.3 points in April from 48 in March matching median Bloomberg estimates. Readings below 50 indicate a slowdown in activity. The most significant of the U.S. data releases yesterday were the existing home sales report and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing index both of which printed above market expectations. The other key majors have continued to range trade over the last 24 hours (Cable 1.6798-1.6839, Usd/jpy 102.41-102.69, Euro 1.3785-1.3837).

Today’s trading focus will be on the BOE minutes, preliminary PMI releases in Europe along with Markit Manufacturing PMI and New Home Sales in the U.S. In New Zealand the RBNZ interest rate decision will feature with the market expecting a 25bps hike to 3.0% in the cash rate.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: PRELIMINARY PMI RELEASES UNLIKELY TO INSPIRE

Pivot: 1.3805, R1 1.3825, R2 1.38448, R3 1.38846, S1 1.37852, S2 1.37652, S3 1.37254 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Minor/Medium 1.3770/85 zone, Medium 1.3740/50.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.3835/40, Minor 1.3860/65, Very Minor 1.3875/80.

View: The Euro looks likely to languish again with a 1.3780/1.3840 range on the cards today.

Technical Comment: The daily tech's are generally soft although the Stochs are nearing the o/sold bounds, the 4H tech's are firming, the 1H's look heavy after the fall from the highs (ADX aside).

GBP/USD Intraday: BOE MINUTES IN FOCUS

Pivot: 1.68168, R1 1.68475, R2 1.68705, R3 1.69241, S1 1.67938, S2 1.67631, S3 1.67095.

Support Levels: Minor 1.6770/80, 1.6745/50.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium 1.6840/45, Minor 1.6875/80.

View: We will leave the Cable today with the BOE minutes out, the techs look soft and we favour 1.6840/45 to continue to cap with 1.6770 in view, and 1.6745/50.

Technical Comment: The daily tech's are ebbing lower, the 4H's look soft led by the Stochs and RSI, the 1H's are heavy across the board.

USD/JPY Intraday: MORE RANGE TRADING LIKELY

Pivot: 102.585, R1 102.753, R2 102.894, R3 103.203, S1 102.444, S2 102.276, S3 101.967.

Support Levels: Minor 102.35/45, Very Minor 102.10/15.

Resistance Levels: Minor 102.70/75, Very Minor 102.80/85, Extremely Minor 102.90/95.

View: We favour a continuation today of the range trading conditions, 102.35-102.75.

Technical Comment: The dailies are firm (although the Stochs are o/bght), the 4H's are soft, the 1H's are mixed to firm.

AUD/USD Intraday: AUSSIE FALTERS ON WEAK 2014 Q1 CPI.

Pivot: .93557, R1 .93891, R2 .94116, R3 .94675, S1 .93332, S2 .92998, S3 .92439.

Support Levels: Very Minor .9260/65, .9250/55, .9230/35, .9220/25, Minor .9200/05.

Resistance Levels: Minor .9305/15, .9330/35, Very Minor .9345/50.

View: We will let the Aussie settle after today's crash but favour rallies to be capped just above .9300 today (.9300/10). On the downside spec buyers could look to the .9220/35 area to buy, stops under .9200.

Technical Comment: The dailies are heavy across the board, the 4H's are heavy and include a recent Macd/signal line cross sell alert, the 1H's are heavy (the Stochs and RSI are o/sold)

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[MahiFX]

The Daily Score - 30 Apr 2014

Market Summary and Pre-European Open Technical Analysis

It will be all eyes on the FOMC meeting later today where a $10 B monthly reduction in the Fed-tapering program is unanimously anticipated. Zero-rates forward guidance is also expected. Yesterday again saw the Euro fail at the 1.3880 level, the German CPI release saw the slide accelerate to ~ 1.3810 after the April CPI fell 0.2% MoM (-0.1% exp.), the YoY number rose 1.3% vs. the 1.4% expectations. The Cable also fell sharply on weaker than expected data, it was the U.K. Q1 GDP which underwhelmed the market at 0.8% QoQ (vs. 0.9% exp.), the Gbp/usd traded as low as 1.6793 from highs near 1.6850 at the time. The subsequent bounce has again failed around the 1.6850 area so far; the YoY number at 3.1% still shows a broadening U.K. recovery story overall however.

The Usd/jpy again failed near familiar resistance levels (102.70/75) after topping at 102.78 to be trading at 102.35 currently. The Aud/usd found support above the Asian session lows of .9227 (.9234 lows) to be trading at .9280 currently. The U.S. ADP employment report, Euro-zone provisional April CPI, and the advanced reading of the U.S. Q1 GDP will feature on the data calendar today.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: THE GERMAN CPI UNDERWHELMS, FOMC IN FOCUS TODAY

Pivot: 1.38322, R1 1.3859, R2 1.39061, R3 1.3980, S1 1.37851, S2 1.37583, S3 1.36844 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Medium 1.3775/ 90 zone, Minor 1.3745/50.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium 1.3875/80, Minor 1.3905/10.

View: The Euro is in no-mans land here ahead of the FOMC, we see the potential for a wide 1.3770-1.3875 range today, we favour shorts overall above 1.3855 would be best, 1.3875 ideal (stops above 1.3910).

Technical Comment: The daily tech's have soured led by the stochs, the 4H's also point to Euro downside (the Stochs are o/sold, DI- is rising), the 1H's are consolidating.

GBP/USD Intraday: THE CABLE SLUMPS BRIEFLY ON THE Q1 GDP RELEASE

Pivot: 1.68225, R1 1.68521, R2 1.68769, R3 1.69313, S1 1.67977, S2 1.67681, S3 1.67137.

Support Levels: Very Minor 1.6775/80, Minor 1.6760/65, 1. 6745/50.

Resistance Levels: Minor 1.6845/50, 1.6875/80, 1.6900/10.

View: The Cable is a tough call with the FOMC out, we favour buying dips from 1.6765-1.6790 overall for a push through 1.6850 to 1.6875/80.

Technical Comment: The daily tech's continue to have a firm tone, the 4H's are ebbing higher, the 1H's are led by firm Stochs and look firm overall.

USD/JPY Intraday: THE USD/JPY FAILS NEAR OLD RES. AT 102.70/75

Pivot: 102.63, R1 102.791, R2 102.944, S3 103.259, S1 102.477, S2 102.316, S3 102.001.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 102.30/35 (very close), 102.20/25, Minor/Medium 101.95/102.05, Very Minor 101.80/85, 101.65/70, 101.50/55, Major 101.20/30.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium 102.75/85, Very Minor 102.95/00.

View: The Usd/jpy has again struggled around the 102.70 area, we see a likely whippy session between 101.70 and 102.95 today. Likely mid range right here.

Technical Comment: The dailies are mixed adding little, the 4H's are heavy led by the Stochs and RSI, the 1H's look poor (although the Stochs are in the o/sold bound and ticking higher).

AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE RECOVERS FROM ITS LOWS, FOMC NEXT FOR FRESH DIRECTION

Pivot: .92594, R1 .92907, R2 .9313, R3 .93666, S1 .92371, S2 .92058, S3 .91522.

Support Levels: Very Minor .9250/60, Minor .9220/25, .9200/05, .9165/70.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium .9315/20, Very Minor .9330/35, Minor .9345/50.

View: The Aussie outlook looks better but the FOMC will dictate, we will look to position around a potential range of ~.9225-.9325/30. Square here.

Technical Comment: The daily Stochs and RSI are improving (the MACD and DMI much less so), the 4H's point to Aussie upside, the 1H's are firm.

https://d3sgrjz8wd57s0.cloudfront.net/cache/d9/fe/d9feb5f6a036c3e31660ac7e103c551c.png

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[MahiFX]

The Daily Score - 07 May 2014

Market Summary by Simon Coulter for MahiFX

Explosive moves in many of the majors yesterday especially the high yielders as traders acted on the inability of the USD to make gains after the recent run of stronger data, the most notable being the recent April NFP release last week (+288k). The Aud/usd broke the key .9320 res. level to trade as high as .9367. The Kiwi also fared well trading up to .8779 (new 2014 highs) before slumping back under .8700 as the RBNZ governor Wheeler reiterated his displeasure with the high NZ dollar, in the process saying it would be ‘more opportune’ for intervention at elevated levels. The Euro traded up to the 1.3950 level whilst the Cable rally fell just short of 1.7000 as the U.K. service sector PMI exceeded expectations at 58.7, the 16th consecutive month of expansion. The Usd/jpy continued its slide but has held the 101.50 level so far. The Australian unemployment numbers for April are the feature of the data calendar tomorrow.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: THE EURO BREAKS UP ON THE WEAKER USD, 1.3966 YEARLY HIGHS IN SIGHT

Pivot: 1.3917, R1 1.39619, R2 1.39962, R3 1.40754, S1 1.38827, S2 1.38379, S3 1.37587 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Minor 1.3900/05, Minor/Medium 1.3880/90, Very Minor 1.3860/65, 1.3850/55.

Resistance Levels: Minor 1.3940/50, 1.3965/70.

View: We favour longs phased in between 1.3890 and 1.3910 for 1.3965 and higher, stops under 1.3850 based on the firming tech's. The Euro is our least favoured trade today so we will leave it.

Technical Comment: The dailies are firm with some momentum being added over the last session, the 4H's are mixed although the ADX is high, DI+ is above DI-, the 1H's point to some downside consolidation.

GBP/USD Intraday: THE RELENTLESS CABLE SURGE CONTINUES, 1.7000 CAPS FOR NOW.

Pivot: 1.69459, R1 1.70251, S2 1.70754, 1.7205, S1 1.68955, S2 1.68163, S3 1.66868.

Support Levels: Minor 1.6910/20, Extremely Minor 1.6845/55.

Resistance Levels: Minor 1.7000/05, Medium/Major 1.7040/50.

View: The Cable looks solid although somewhat over-stretched for now, we favour buyers targeting 1.6920/30 for longs on a consolidation but remain bullish overall.

Technical Comment: The dailies are strong with good momentum (a high and rising ADX, the RSI is o/bght), the 4H's are firm but have eased a little in Asia, the 1H's are consolidating lower overall.

USD/JPY Intraday: THE WEAKER DOLLAR SEES THE USD/JPY SLIDE CONTINUE TO 101.50.

Pivot: 101.79, R1 102.08, R2 102.478, R3 103.165, S1 101.393, S2 101.103, S3 100.415.

Support Levels: Very Minor 101.50/55, Major 101.20/30, 100.70/80.

Resistance Levels: Minor, 101.85/95, Very Minor 102.20/25, 102.30/35, 102.50/55.

View: The Usd/jpy looks vulnerable but has some support at 101.50. 101.20/30 and 100.70/80 hold the key otherwise a sustained downmove looks likely. We favour shorts at 101.75/85 for a test of the key 101.20/30 lvl, stops above 102.25.

Technical Comment: The dailies point to additional Usd/jpy downside (the MACD adds little), the 4H's are soft but not accelerating, the 1H's are relatively flat.

AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE BREAKS KEY .9320 RES. TO TRADE AT 2 WEEK HIGHS.

Pivot: .9330, R1 .9389, R2 .94265, R3 .9523, S1 .92925, S2 .92335, S3 .9137.

Support Levels: Minor/Medium .9315/30 zone, Minor .9295/00.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor .9365/70, Minor .9375/80, .9385/90, .9420/25.

View: The Aussie burst through .9320 was somewhat surprising although in line with the weak USD. We favour longs targeting .9320/30 for entry, adding at .9300/05, stops under .9270 (moving, under hourly down-trend line), long term bulls could stop under .9250.

Technical Comment: The dailies are firm across the board led by the RSI and Stochs (the ADX is still reasonably low though (rising)), the 4H's are firm but are easing (esp. the Stochs/RSI and DI+), the 1H's are consolidating.

 

[MahiFX]

The Daily Score - 08 May 2014

Market Summary - by MahiFX

A surge in the Aud/usd from the prior .9320 resistance level was the feature of trading in Asia today as the Aussie rose 0.6% to .9375 highs. The better than expected April employment data release was behind the move and has many picking a shift towards an RBA tightening bias in the months ahead. The jobless rate remained at 5.8% defying expectations of a rise to 5.9%, the economy added 14,200 new jobs, all full-time, above the 8,800 expectations. The Euro and Cable consolidated after the strong gains made earlier in the week, the Euro sagged to 1.3905, and the Gbp/usd drifting down to 1.6943 lows. Janet Yellen’s speech held few surprises as she reiterated the Feds’ commitment to the tapering path with purchases ending in Q4 2014 and the first rate hikes not until well into 2015. Concerns were expressed over housing activity indicators. The ECB and BOE interest rate decisions will be the feature of trading today, forward guidance on quantitative easing is expected to play a key role in the Euro direction, whilst the recent strength in the U.K. economic data will have many pundits looking for guidance of an earlier hike in interest rates than the Q2 2015 market consensus.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: ECB MEETING THE FOCUS FOR TODAY

Pivot: 1.39197, R1 1.39293, R2 1.39483, R3 1.39769, S1 1.39007, S2 1.38911, S3 1.38265 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Minor 1.3900/05, Minor/Medium 1.3880/90, Very Minor 1.3860/65, 1.3850/55.

Resistance Levels: 1.3940/50, 1.3965/70.

View: The ECB will likely dicate direction today, we retain a bullish bias and favour 1.3880 to hold for another look at the 1.3965/70 2014 highs. Caution required.

Technical Comment: The dailies have changed little from yesterday and are firm on balance, the 4H's are mixed to heavy (the Stochs are o/sold), the 1H's add little.

GBP/USD Intraday: BOE IN THE LIMELIGHT TODAY

Pivot: 1.69635, R1 1.69751, R2 1.69978, R3 1.70321, S1 1.69408, S2 1.69292, S3 1.68949.

Support Levels: Minor 1.6910/20, Extremely Minor 1.6845/55.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium 1.7000/05, Medium/Major 1.7040/50.

View: The Cable could move a bit today on the BOE, we favour longs between 1.6900/1.6920 although caution is needed over the BOE, probably easier trades today but the outlook is bullish.

Technical Comment: The dailies continue to look firm although have kicked on little from yesterday, the 4H's are falling (the Stochs sharply so, although are o/sold), the 1H's are beginning a small recovery.

USD/JPY Intraday: THE USD/JPY RECOVERS FROM THE 101.40 DOWNSIDE SLUMP

Pivot: 101.781, R1 102.13, R2 102.358, R3 102.935, S1 101.553, S2 101.204, S3 100.627.

Support Levels: Very Minor 101.40/45, Major 101.20/30, 100.70/80.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 102.20/25, 102.30/35, 102.50/55.

View: The Usd/jpy has had a nice bounce out of the 101.40 area, so far capped at 102.00, we would look to stay short here , stops above 102.25 for 101.45 and 101.25.

Technical Comment: The dailies continue to look sluggish although have not deteriorated further, the 4H's are mixed (although the Stochs are firm), the 1H's are ambling sideways overall.

AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE RALLY CONTINUES ON APRIL EMPLOYMENT DATA

Pivot: .93336, R1 .93488, R2 .93697, R3 .94058, S1 .93127, S2 .92975, S3 .92614.

Support Levels: Medium .9315/30 zone, Minor .9295/00.

Resistance Levels: Minor .9375/80, .9385/90, .9420/25, Medium .9460/65

View: The Aussie rally has resumed off the old .9320 resistance after the firm data, we will look to trim longs between .9380/90 but would not entertain shorts until .9420, late buyers could target .9345.

Technical Comment: The dailies continue to look firm, the 4H's are also rising, the 1H's are strong but the RSI and Stochs are in the o/bght zone.

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[MahiFX]

The Daily Score - 14 May 2014

MahiFX Market Summary and Technical Analysis

The Euro slump resumed in trading yesterday as news flow supported the prospect of fresh ECB easing in June after the German ZEW Economic Sentiment expectations survey disappointed falling to 33.1 from 43.2 (41.0 exp.). The slide from the resistance near 1.3775 accelerated after the markets reacted to a WSJ article, which stated that the German Bundesbank would support a range of ECB policy actions aimed at targeting the current low inflation levels. The Bundesbank later attempted to clarify the comments saying the stance was not new (the bank has been a strong opponent to extraordinary monetary policy measures for many years).

USD retail sales for April underwhelmed at +0.1% MoM (0.4% exp), although an upgrade to the March number (from +1.1% to 1.5% MoM) affirmed the upward trend in underlying sales, the Euro has traded down to 1.3689 lows so far. Softer Chinese data saw the Aussie trade down to .9333 before later rallying to .9397, whilst the Usd/jpy traded down to 102.06 from highs around 102.36. The Cable softened to lows around 1.6820 ahead to todays key unemployment data and the BOE inflation report.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: WEAK GERMAN ZEW SURVEY AND BUNDESBANK COMMENTS CONTRIBUTE TO NEXT EURO DOWN-LEG.

Pivot: 1.37214, R1 1.37535, R2 1.38038, R3 1.38862, S1 1.36711, S2 1.3639, S3 1.35566 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Minor/Medium 1.3670/75, 1.3640/45, Minor 1.3620/25.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.3740/45, Minor 1.3775/90 zone, 1.3805/10.

View: The decline has extended to around 1.3690 meaning it has lost 3c from last week highs. This rally looks capable of snaping back to 1.3745 and 1.3770/75. On the downside we think additional large declines sub the 1.3640/70 zone are unlikely.

Technical Comment: The dailies continue to look heavy (the Stochs are o/sold) and the ADX is rising showing increased momentum, the 4H's are also soft (the Stochs and RSI are o/sold), the 1H's are edging up.

GBP/USD Intraday: UNEMPLOYMENT AND BOE INFLATION REPORT TODAY

Pivot: 1.68427, R1 1.6866, R2 1.69067, R3 1.69707, S1 1.6802, S2 1.67787, S3 1.67147.

Support Levels: Minor/Medium 1.6815/25, Very Minor 1.6800/05, 1.6770/75, 1.6760/65.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 1.6880/85, Very Minor 1.6900/05, 1.6915/20.

View: The Cable has found demand at 1.6820 but it will be a tough day with the BOE inflation report and unemploy. data. For now 1.6820 and 1.6760/75 look key on the downside, 1.6900/20 should see selling interest on top.

Technical Comment: The dailies point to downside vulnerability (the Stochs are o/sold), the 4H's are improving, the 1H's are rising strongly (the Stochs are o/bght).

USD/JPY Intraday: THE JPY CONSOLIDATES IN A TIGHT RANGE

Pivot: 102.228, R1 102.394, R2 102.531, R3 102.834, S1 102.091, S2 101.925, S3 101.622.

Support Levels: Very Minor 102.00/05, 101.80/85, Minor 101.40/45, Major 101.20/30.

View: The Usd/jpy looks to be struggling to surpass 102.35/40 for now. We see 102.40 as the top with 101.85 in sight on the downside, 102.60/80 would be a great shorting opportunity, stops above 103.05.

Technical Comment: The dailies are firming (although the RSI has eased a touch), the 4H's are sliding led by the Stochs (watch for a Macd/signal line cross sell alert), the 1H's are easing (Stochs aside).

AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE BOUNCES ~ 0.65 C FROM ITS LOWS, .9385/00 RESISTANCE ZONE IS BEING CHALLENGED

Pivot: .93583, R1 .93832, R2 .94075, R3 .94567, S1 .9334, S2 .93091, S3 .92599.

Support Levels: Minor .9345/50, Medium .9315/30 zone, Minor .9295/00.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium .9385/00, Minor .9420/25, Medium .9460/65.

View: The break of .9345 only saw .9333 ahead of good support. We don't think chasing this rally will be wise at these levels despite .9425 being attainable. We will look to play short at .9415/25 with stops above .9465 for .9350/55.

Technical Comment: The dailies are firming (the stochs are tracking sideways), the 4H's are also looking strong, the 1H's are rising sharply (the stocks are o/bght).

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