Market Psychology and Targets

[futures oil]

All of this, however, involves prediction, and prediction is unnecessary. One need only trade what's in front of him. Once he gets into prediction, the ego becomes a factor, and with the ego, emotions. This is particularly true if he views trading as a "battle", in which case the desire and even need to be right interferes with one's perception of reality.

If one wants to pursue this further, there is a virtual catalog of biases which may prompt a spark of recognition and perhaps eventual growth. Just google "cognitive bias".

The goal would be to trade like a machine but to get there its a long road. But i agree with you if you start involving emotions specially the "I" its going to be a hard and long road till success.

 

[futures oil]

Its sounds pretty much the same thing most are seeking "How can i understand and predict the future?". I dont think the answers lay down that road.

)

 

[seekingTruth16]

Thanks everyone for your help and advice. Lots of good posts and things for me to think about.

 

[Signalcalc]

But is it tradeable?

 

[wallstreetwarrior87]

Ok lets have a look at DP's Chart.

Sometimes its more important to look at what has not happened!

The key areas on this chart are 4 and 5 and 6 - but the key being that understanding what happened at 4 and 5 will give you the heads up that 6 WILL occur!

Ok what about now?

We have had 2200 and 19000 on the other US markets, and this is no way near climatic action up here, so 5000 juicy Lucy looks the plan (all in advance of course)

Ask yourself the question, who wants to sell here? Where is a target? They will just get churned over, until they become a believer, but then it will be too late. Santa will have delivered all his goodies, and Joe public will demand a refund in Jan 2017

Back in Jan it is then!

Got there 1st week Jan, but still not enough off loading here, and with earnings starting next week, seems silly not to keep it up here and push it higher in the next 2 weeks. Retail beginning to believe, just need them convinced! What does volume really represent? See there is nothing better than doing this in real time, see how the market flows in relation to the overall puzzle.

Remember Wykoff involves the expression of price and volume, but the key is the re-expression of price and volume, future price projection is possible to a high degree of accuracy, this can be taken as far as the user wants \ needs.

Ego tends to get involved when we try to work out a scenario that is not clear. This is because we cant always know the answer, but ego believes we can, hence academics really struggle to grasp this. When we can clearly see the game plan, we must play as we know the majority of the time the trades will be profitable, and not only that, we can gauge accurately where to exit on a consistent basis.

Hopefully this will be some food for thought going into 2017?

 

[dbphoenix]

I'm sure you know that the sideways range movements to which you refer take place within longer-term trend channels. The upper limit of the particular trend channel which contains this range is considerably higher than where we are now. Will we get there? Who knows? But ego won't determine whether or not we get there, and, as you pointed out earlier, there's no climactic action yet.

 

[wallstreetwarrior87]

Got there 1st week Jan, but still not enough off loading here, and with earnings starting next week, seems silly not to keep it up here and push it higher in the next 2 weeks. Retail beginning to believe, just need them convinced! What does volume really represent? See there is nothing better than doing this in real time, see how the market flows in relation to the overall puzzle.

Remember Wykoff involves the expression of price and volume, but the key is the re-expression of price and volume, future price projection is possible to a high degree of accuracy, this can be taken as far as the user wants \ needs.

Ego tends to get involved when we try to work out a scenario that is not clear. This is because we cant always know the answer, but ego believes we can, hence academics really struggle to grasp this. When we can clearly see the game plan, we must play as we know the majority of the time the trades will be profitable, and not only that, we can gauge accurately where to exit on a consistent basis.

Hopefully this will be some food for thought going into 2017?

Ok, into Feb now, and we mentioned last time about believers needing to really embrace the markets, and that we could not even talk about a topping area until this has been put in place. Well a prime example would be this thread http://www.trade2win.com/boards/indices/120172-anyone-scalping-ftse-futures-9764.html . All the talk is about how far these US indexes can go, traders are beginning to become slightly irrational and detached from reality. Yes, we are moving higher, but these changes of stages of movement at the most account for about 15% of the time, but during this time the crowds tend to get ahead of themselves - talking DOW at silly prices, a bit like $5000 gold and $250 oil. This is the stage of belief, so be aware and be careful. Those that really get paid are collecting in this area, they are not mopping up all they can get, they are phasing out.

So will it be psychology that determines the next few months, or lines on a chart?

All interesting stuff?

 

[Hamzi]

how to trade on forex without fear?

 

[Winherd]

how to trade on forex without fear?

Practice, practice and even more practice, my friend...