Market Manipulation

Mycroft Algoman said:
They don't have to do a thing, the placement of the order is sufficient, breaking it down is also done to advantage by the Algos but the PRIMARY INFORMATION, the huge sum from a single section of the market is enough...

But also remember that $40m is for just 1000 players on line and involved and just £2 pp...

How many of us are there do you think?

20,000

50,000

100,000

How much is the average bet?

£5pp

$10pp

Do a bit of simple arithematic and you'll get the picture... eventually.
Click to expand...

Are you assuming that these 1000 retailers all enter at the exact same time and price?
 
All of Mycrofts unanswered, evasive or ill informed comments and replies:
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/spread-betting-cfds/179332-market-manipulation-6.html#post2192278
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/spread-betting-cfds/179332-market-manipulation-9.html#post2192428
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/spread-betting-cfds/179332-market-manipulation-10.html#post2192464
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/spread-betting-cfds/179332-market-manipulation-11.html#post2192550
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/spread-betting-cfds/179332-market-manipulation-12.html#post2192580
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/spread-betting-cfds/179332-market-manipulation-12.html#post2192600
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/spread-betting-cfds/179332-market-manipulation-14.html#post2192652
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/spread-betting-cfds/179332-market-manipulation-14.html#post2192670
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/indices/179360-dji-tonight-22-09-13-a.html

Acadmic claims:
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/spread-betting-cfds/179332-market-manipulation-15.html#post2192674
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/spread-betting-cfds/179332-market-manipulation-22.html#post2193114

Its pretty clear you have no facts to counter the above arguments.
I'm not wasting my time arguing over your unsubstantiated waffle any more.

Any more posts from you will be met with a copy of this post
unless you respond with something factual other than nonsense
pulled out of thin air.
Everyone reading this can make up their own minds.

Swing trading with a spreadbet firm - you won't even notice any of this.
Intraday trading, particularly very short term, you should be trading DMA.
End of.
 
Last edited:
Mycroft

Just let's assume for one moment that this notion of yours is correct (can't help squirming a bit as I type that :LOL:) then what conclusions do you draw about how the one pounders et al should go about their trading without stirring the evil axis of algos and quants?
 
barjon said:
Mycroft

Just let's assume for one moment that this notion of yours is correct (can't help squirming a bit as I type that :LOL:) then what conclusions do you draw about how the one pounders et al should go about their trading without stirring the evil axis of algos and quants?
Click to expand...

Even if you entertain the idea it is true,
swing trade with an SB or go DMA if very short term.
Anyone trying to scalp with a spreadbet firm needs their head testing anyway.
Thats it.
 
Mycroft I’ve read all the way through out of interest and a desire to find out what it is that you have, or think you have, that will make a difference to the way anyone reading your posts trades tomorrow. I’m not asking you to summarise as I could that myself if I could discern any coherent structure out of what it is you are trying to explain, so I suspect you’ll need to take a new tack. I’m sure that fault is mine in not possessing the necessary and basic skills required to even understand the obvious, let alone the nuances. So could you please if only for my benefit, post a basic set of bullet-points from what your research has given you in a way that I could bend to my use at start of trading tomorrow morning? Something utilitarian and concise that would actually make a positive difference to my P&L.

In expectation of something that I, and the other members too of course, can find useful and in return for your hoped for efforts, something I’m sure you will get if you are who I think you think you are:-

“...he has no ambition and no energy. He will not even go out of his way to verify his own solutions, and would rather be considered wrong than take the trouble to prove himself right. Again and again I have taken a problem to him, and have received an explanation which has afterwards proved to be the correct one. And yet he was absolutely incapable of working out the practical points...”.
 
Purple Brain said:
So could you please if only for my benefit, post a basic set of bullet-points from what your research has given you in a way that I could bend to my use at start of trading tomorrow morning? Something utilitarian and concise that would actually make a positive difference to my P&L.
Click to expand...

Agree, that would be the easiest way to lay this to rest.
So how about it Mycroft?
I think we may be in for a long wait...
 
barjon said:
now, now LV :LOL:

I don't really give a monkey's about who is controlling the market so long as it moves and I can hitch a ride on it. Not too bothered about whether I get a "good" price either, any more than I am by finding that I could have got the tin of beans I bought in the Co-op 2p cheaper at Tesco.

One thing I am pretty sure about though is that the massed forces of the industry don't swing into action because of my little £1 FTSE bet with my SB. That would be akin to the Government ordering full mobilisation and sending in the tanks because I had appeared on the street with a pop-gun.
Click to expand...

The worry is that sort of thing is actually quite likely to happen.
 
Shakone said:
Are you assuming that these 1000 retailers all enter at the exact same time and price?
Click to expand...

Please read earlier posts...

We are all (whether we like it or not) looking for the same clues as to whether the market is up or down in the near future, we are all given similar recognition abilities thanks to evolution, even the very stupidest amongst us (no names :) ) will recognise patterns effectively.

Research in this field and similar shows that we will recognise a discernment pattern at roughly the same moment, so about 85% of all the traders on line will go the same way.

So yeah, if there are 100, 1000, 10000 or 100,000 playing online then 85% will draw the same conclusion and take the position... almost at the same time, about 2 seconds.

But only a percentage will be looking at the DJI (the most popular trading market in the World)

But the figure of 1000 is about the most conservative you'll see and so is the amount which I've read is $7pp

The market has depth, most people think depth is the gross sum or similar, today in the era of the Algo depth is about the 'sea'... the markets are analogous to a sea, the depth of that sea is a minimum of $2500, some traders will break to $10000 in waves and we are buying in minimum values far higher than this Just £1 in the DJI is noted by the system as not £1 but actually as £15500 (or at what the price is at the time) but at present it is circa 15500 and that is about 25,000 dollars and there are hundreds/thousands of us committed long term (long term for Algos is anything longer than 1/250th of a second) to long or short and we keep coming in our droves.

So the Algos are designed to head off where ever the change in price costs the least... so based on the annoying human attribute of being good at pattern recognition the vast majority of us point one way...

The Algos go exactly in the opposite direction, that is what they made to do.

I feel like I've entered Kindergarten here, has no-one here had even a suspicion that might be what actually happens?
 
Mycroft Algoman said:
Research in this field and similar shows that we will recognise a discernment pattern at roughly the same moment, so about 85% of all the traders on line will go the same way.

So yeah, if there are 100, 1000, 10000 or 100,000 playing online then 85% will draw the same conclusion and take the position... almost at the same time, about 2 seconds.

But the figure of 1000 is about the most conservative you'll see and so is the amount which I've read is $7pp

The market has depth, most people think depth is the gross sum or similar, today in the era of the Algo depth is about the 'sea'... the markets are analogous to a sea, the depth of that sea is a minimum of $2500, some traders will break to $10000 in waves and we are buying in minimum values far higher than this Just £1 in the DJI is noted by the system as not £1 but actually as £15500 (or at what the price is at the time) but at present it is circa 15500 and that is about 25,000 dollars and there are hundreds/thousands of us committed long term (long term for Algos is anything longer than 1/250th of a second) to long or short and we keep coming in our droves.

So the Algos are designed to head off where ever the change in price costs the least... so based on the annoying human attribute of being good at pattern recognition the vast majority of us point one way...

The Algos go exactly in the opposite direction, that is what they made to do.

I feel like I've entered Kindergarten here, has no-one here had even a suspicion that might be what actually happens?
Click to expand...
More tosh.
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/first-steps/145690-scalping-16.html#post1808658
Latency arbitrage is the most prevalent method for HFT NYSE algos.
They don't track UK retail spreadbet traders.
They front run the NBBO.
If you had the slightest idea of what you are talking about you
would know that.

Latency arb doesn't second guess UK spreadbet retailers,
it front runs the entire market.
 
Last edited:
Mycroft Algoman said:
They don't have to do a thing, the placement of the order is sufficient, breaking it down is also done to advantage by the Algos but the PRIMARY INFORMATION, the huge sum from a single section of the market is enough...

But also remember that $40m is for just 1000 players on line and involved and just £2 pp...

How many of us are there do you think?

20,000

50,000

100,000

How much is the average bet?

£5pp

$10pp

Do a bit of simple arithematic and you'll get the picture... eventually.
Click to expand...


I think you'll find that the average bet on the DJ is around two quid, and even if there were a couple of thousand punters with a trade on at any particular moment their overall position would be quite close to flat. Not much chance of a butterfly effect, even if they all flapped their wings and farted in synchrony with Ben Bernanke.
 
Liquid validity said:
No, better things to do than feed trolls and snake oil salesmen like you.
No facts, just anecdotal BS from you.
All your subsequent posts will be met with this:
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/spread-betting-cfds/179332-market-manipulation-13.html#post2192640
Click to expand...

But you' re back!!!

You have a bad case of over-weening paranoia, I have nothing to sell.

I've been handsomely paid by my Faculty to do this (I jumped at the chance) and if you read (for free) and gain further insight then I will be overjoyed, if not just ignore and wend your merry way.

I will still be taking joy in your paranoia and if I can do so, from this post on, I will play on it as hard as I can, for sport... only you though, everyone else gets full respect.

It's all for you xxx

:)
 
Vasco da Banana said:
I think you'll find that the average bet on the DJ is around two quid, and even if there were a couple of thousand punters with a trade on at any particular moment their overall position would be quite close to flat. Not much chance of a butterfly effect, even if they all flapped their wings and farted in synchrony with Ben Bernanke.
Click to expand...

If by flat you mean 50-50 either way, then you are wrong, every scrap of research on pattern recognition in humans shows that we hold to the 85%-15% very closely indeed.

The boards do what every good broker would do and diversify the placement, but that doesn't mean a thing, the notifications to the Algos are 'gross' and directional.
 
Mycroft Algoman said:
If by flat you mean 50-50 either way, then you are wrong, every scrap of research on pattern recognition in humans shows that we hold to the 85%-15% very closely indeed.

The boards do what every good broker would do and diversify the placement, but that doesn't mean a thing, the notifications to the Algos are 'gross' and directional.
Click to expand...
More tosh.
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/first-steps/145690-scalping-16.html#post1808658
Latency arbitrage is the most prevalent method for HFT NYSE algos.
They don't track UK retail spreadbet traders.
They front run the NBBO.
If you had the slightest idea of what you are talking about you
would know that.

Latency arb doesn't second guess UK spreadbet retailers,
it front runs the entire market.
 
Mycroft Algoman said:
Please read earlier posts...

We are all (whether we like it or not) looking for the same clues as to whether the market is up or down in the near future, we are all given similar recognition abilities thanks to evolution, even the very stupidest amongst us (no names :) ) will recognise patterns effectively.

Research in this field and similar shows that we will recognise a discernment pattern at roughly the same moment, so about 85% of all the traders on line will go the same way.

So yeah, if there are 100, 1000, 10000 or 100,000 playing online then 85% will draw the same conclusion and take the position... almost at the same time, about 2 seconds.

But only a percentage will be looking at the DJI (the most popular trading market in the World)

But the figure of 1000 is about the most conservative you'll see and so is the amount which I've read is $7pp

The market has depth, most people think depth is the gross sum or similar, today in the era of the Algo depth is about the 'sea'... the markets are analogous to a sea, the depth of that sea is a minimum of $2500, some traders will break to $10000 in waves and we are buying in minimum values far higher than this Just £1 in the DJI is noted by the system as not £1 but actually as £15500 (or at what the price is at the time) but at present it is circa 15500 and that is about 25,000 dollars and there are hundreds/thousands of us committed long term (long term for Algos is anything longer than 1/250th of a second) to long or short and we keep coming in our droves.

So the Algos are designed to head off where ever the change in price costs the least... so based on the annoying human attribute of being good at pattern recognition the vast majority of us point one way...

The Algos go exactly in the opposite direction, that is what they made to do.

I feel like I've entered Kindergarten here, has no-one here had even a suspicion that might be what actually happens?
Click to expand...

Great stuff. I've enjoyed the lulz immensely.

The thing is that most people here already know that the majority lose. And some here know that in order to succeed you have to do things a little differently, and move beyond trading based on human tendencies and emotions which hinder trading results, and even to capitalise on them. And it's always been so, and has nothing to do with algos. Successful traders of the past have done this even before algos entered the markets.

Losing traders continue to make the same sorts of mistakes and 'collude' (if you want to call it that) with other losers to lose.

However, you massively overestimate the % of people and speed at which people will come to a similar decision and take similar action and you underestimate the size of various markets, which is why you come to the conclusion you do.
 
Shakone said:
However, you massively overestimate the % of people and speed at which people will come to a similar decision and take similar action and you underestimate the size of various markets, which is why you come to the conclusion you do.
Click to expand...
Please research this yourself, it is startlingly clear we will by and large (85% of us) reach the same conclusion and act on it in those few seconds.

The size of the market is unimportant it is the depth that counts and controls the movement these days, depth is often termed 'load' by mathematicians and by front end loading our positions prior to breaking down we stand out like a sore thumb.

The markets are actually not that large once you take the Algos out of the action, at their recent peak they constituted 91% of all the money in the market (DJI, 15th August 2013) but depth is the marker.
 
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