Bigbusiness
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Tom Hougaard now gives a fairly detailed prediction of all the moves for the day before the market opens. I am not sure how he works this out and there must be a good chance of it all going wrong. I looked at his predictions for the past few days and they have been quite good. Will be interesting to see how long he can do it before getting one badly wrong. If he can get more than 5 days in a row without a bad prediction, I will start to think he has a time machine!
http://forum.tacticaltrader.com/viewforum.php?f=5
http://forum.tacticaltrader.com/viewforum.php?f=5
Johny40
Thanks for at least trying to vote for me- very nice of you.
Anyway
I think I am looking at too many markets from now on I am only going to concentrate on Two.
Eurostoxxe50 and the Dow.
I have got a good knowledge of the Stoxxe and not far off now from mastering the Dow.
I will let you all know how I get on and if there is anything to share then I will.
The Dow looks very tricky to predict today so I am not going to say anything about it today.
Thanks for at least trying to vote for me- very nice of you.
Anyway
I think I am looking at too many markets from now on I am only going to concentrate on Two.
Eurostoxxe50 and the Dow.
I have got a good knowledge of the Stoxxe and not far off now from mastering the Dow.
I will let you all know how I get on and if there is anything to share then I will.
The Dow looks very tricky to predict today so I am not going to say anything about it today.
Bigbusiness
I have attended a couple of Tom's seminars and he is a fan of geometric ratios which certainly appear to be pretty accurate (& obvious in hindsight!). He recommends Bryce Gilmore http://www.bryce-gilmore.com/ as a source of material. I have a copy of Trading To Win from the website and it takes a couple of reads to digest as it is written in a sort of live log format rather than the usual handbook but certainly makes interesting reading. I am still trying to apply it so cannot comment on profitability only that it is not a rip-off.
David
PS I note you are just down the road so I can show you it sometime if you are interested.
I have attended a couple of Tom's seminars and he is a fan of geometric ratios which certainly appear to be pretty accurate (& obvious in hindsight!). He recommends Bryce Gilmore http://www.bryce-gilmore.com/ as a source of material. I have a copy of Trading To Win from the website and it takes a couple of reads to digest as it is written in a sort of live log format rather than the usual handbook but certainly makes interesting reading. I am still trying to apply it so cannot comment on profitability only that it is not a rip-off.
David
PS I note you are just down the road so I can show you it sometime if you are interested.
After the strong close of the Dow -the European markets will open quite strong tomorrow.
The ftse should see the biggest move early morning.
The afternoon will probably see a slide in the Dow as the momentum has been upwards for a few days now before it begins another strong surge upwards.
The long term trend is quite clearly up - but please remember to only trade when the markets are open.
The ftse should see the biggest move early morning.
The afternoon will probably see a slide in the Dow as the momentum has been upwards for a few days now before it begins another strong surge upwards.
The long term trend is quite clearly up - but please remember to only trade when the markets are open.
Bigbusiness
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Thanks David,
I have sent you an email. I have found this website that might be of interest:
http://www.harmonictrader.com/chart_examples.htm
http://www.harmonicanalyzer.com/
I have sent you an email. I have found this website that might be of interest:
http://www.harmonictrader.com/chart_examples.htm
http://www.harmonicanalyzer.com/
Bigbusiness
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Made my money early today so I have been looking for some more reading material.
There are some excellent pdf files on this page. Worth a look if you have enough time to read through them.
http://www.tradingeducators.com/trading_philosophy.htm
There are some excellent pdf files on this page. Worth a look if you have enough time to read through them.
http://www.tradingeducators.com/trading_philosophy.htm
Hi Folks,
I'm brand new to this board and this is my first post, so forgive any daft questions I ask. I'm considering spread betting the indices and have been paper trading for a couple of months with some success (though my experience trading shares tells me the game changes completely when you use your real money!). I must admit I'm hugely impressed by rglenns predictions for the dow. He has called it uncannily well but I have a question. Everyone cautions against trading the indices when they are not open. Why is this?
I'm brand new to this board and this is my first post, so forgive any daft questions I ask. I'm considering spread betting the indices and have been paper trading for a couple of months with some success (though my experience trading shares tells me the game changes completely when you use your real money!). I must admit I'm hugely impressed by rglenns predictions for the dow. He has called it uncannily well but I have a question. Everyone cautions against trading the indices when they are not open. Why is this?
Nice to have you join us quint
Calling the markets correctly is not always that easy.
As you will find out soon enough if you try to predict the markets before they open and setup a trade in the direction of your prediction you will soon find that you will loose a awful lot of money.
It is always worth waiting for the markets to open and then after it settles down for a while you will know by their movements what the general direction is.
I am beginning to master the markets general movements after they open.
One thing I have learnt is not to get too greedy. Set your profit target and stick to it.
On the Dow it is good to set a profit target of 50pts multiplied by your stake. Of course you need to have a system to work by.
I believe I now possess that system but I didn't take into consideration the spreadbetting companies when devising this system.
Yesterday I lost few hundred pounds profit because I wasn't able to get in and out of the position that the system threw up because the spread betting company's system went down.
So this is another area I have to look at.
Calling the markets correctly is not always that easy.
As you will find out soon enough if you try to predict the markets before they open and setup a trade in the direction of your prediction you will soon find that you will loose a awful lot of money.
It is always worth waiting for the markets to open and then after it settles down for a while you will know by their movements what the general direction is.
I am beginning to master the markets general movements after they open.
One thing I have learnt is not to get too greedy. Set your profit target and stick to it.
On the Dow it is good to set a profit target of 50pts multiplied by your stake. Of course you need to have a system to work by.
I believe I now possess that system but I didn't take into consideration the spreadbetting companies when devising this system.
Yesterday I lost few hundred pounds profit because I wasn't able to get in and out of the position that the system threw up because the spread betting company's system went down.
So this is another area I have to look at.
Bigbusiness
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Hi rglenn,
Were you having problems with finspreads yesterday? Their internet trading was down and I couldn't set a stop so I phoned to close the bet. Luckily I manged to place the bet with IG Index just before the fall after the open. That's the first time I haven't been able to place a stop online with finspreads but it is handy having another account in case it happens.
Quint, I sometimes trade after the close or before the open. So far it has proved quite profitable but I am only using small stakes to test a few ideas.
I am off for the next two weeks so I predict that the Dow will have increased volatility and will probably have a large fall at some point. It always seems to happen when I am away!
Were you having problems with finspreads yesterday? Their internet trading was down and I couldn't set a stop so I phoned to close the bet. Luckily I manged to place the bet with IG Index just before the fall after the open. That's the first time I haven't been able to place a stop online with finspreads but it is handy having another account in case it happens.
Quint, I sometimes trade after the close or before the open. So far it has proved quite profitable but I am only using small stakes to test a few ideas.
I am off for the next two weeks so I predict that the Dow will have increased volatility and will probably have a large fall at some point. It always seems to happen when I am away!
Thanks for the replies guys. Very interesting.I'm not intending to start trading with hard cash for a couple of months but it is frustrating to see the gains I'm making on paper but I am forcing myself to stick to my program.Admittedly my system is simplistic to say the least,trading the FTSE using a combination of Rivallands modified Gann charts and my own little formula based on the relationship between the previous days Dow and FTSE (at its simplest, to give one example,if the trend is up,FTSE down,DOW up 40+,No major Economic Data I go long on the FTSE).I know,its ridiculously simplistic and relies on betting the FTSE out of market hours. I would be really grateful if someone would tear my system to ribbons (gently)and show me the error of my ways(better to learn now).
PS rglenn:I note you haven't given us your specific dow prediction today.
PS rglenn:I note you haven't given us your specific dow prediction today.
Sorry quint for no Dow prediction on Friday- I got called away on an emergency- Needless to say I missed another golden opportunity!
But if the system is working as good as it is then there is no need for me to worry.
quint regarding your system- no one can say how good or how bad it is except yourself. If you have devised a system that the worst scenario is break-even or a small loss i.e 1-3% then you are quite safe in the long term. If most of the losses are greater than 3% then you are sure to lose all of your money.
At present when I have signed up to a few more Spreadbetting companies my worst scenario will be around 3%.
80% will be winning trades and the remainder will be break-even.
PREDICTION FOR DOW-16-jUN-03
The upward trend on the Dow is very strong - I see the Dow going down slightly on Monday possibly to around 20 or 30pts before starting its upward momentum again to around 120-140pts.
But if the system is working as good as it is then there is no need for me to worry.
quint regarding your system- no one can say how good or how bad it is except yourself. If you have devised a system that the worst scenario is break-even or a small loss i.e 1-3% then you are quite safe in the long term. If most of the losses are greater than 3% then you are sure to lose all of your money.
At present when I have signed up to a few more Spreadbetting companies my worst scenario will be around 3%.
80% will be winning trades and the remainder will be break-even.
PREDICTION FOR DOW-16-jUN-03
The upward trend on the Dow is very strong - I see the Dow going down slightly on Monday possibly to around 20 or 30pts before starting its upward momentum again to around 120-140pts.
Car Key Boi
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do any of yuo guys take account of what's happening in the Treasury Bond markets before making yuor Dow predictions?
just curious...
just curious...
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