Market chat

  • Thread starter Thread starter Naz
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Semis

Yes, it looks like a pretty vital level for the semis ... if we are to break into bull mode, the market will continue to be led by the techs ... the $sox daily pattern is due for a pullback after a nice 3 day run ... if the $sox could decisively break out of its consolidation on the daily bars, that would be very a encouraging development (at least for those who prefer the longside).
 
Just been on the phone to New York,i told them about this thread and they've been checking it out.

Response.Hey cool man 700 views in 10 days, some site.

By the way also liked the way the whole site was presented.
 
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Hi Naz,

Just wanted to say a big thank you for the contribution you're making on the boards, I'm sure I speak for everyone when I say its great to have someone as knowledgable, enthusiastic and with a great writing style so active on the board.

I'm glad you and your friends like the website and the way it's presented. I'm working hard on maintaining and updating the site, and it's a great boost to hear positive feedback from members like yourself that use it every day.

That's all. 🙂

Cheers,
Sharky.
 
I second that. Must be a far cry from those hundreds of other BB's that are supposed to be for "Traders" 🙂
Maybe we should have a "Green" theme? 🙂
 
Thanks for the comments guys.

Right ,one of the things i've loved doing since my UK trading days is to get on a plane,take a train,or a taxi and go and quiz all manner of CEO's CFO's, traders,investors,Editor's and anyone,at any function who i can annoy and get some market information.One tip if your talking to a CEO you get more out of him if you realy understand his company.So do your homework first.

I have been invited and gatecrashed everywhere.It always makes an enjoyable time and you get to meet some very interesting people and get loads of free information.

So today was one of those times.Although it was all by invatation.First stop was to see a Director friend of a small quoted UK tech company.Cant say which one yet but therye looking to immenently merge with a US company and get a Nasdaq listing.The blue bloods advising are looking for the US stock to rise 8 times within the year.The UK part should also do very well as they will shortly be receiving a large order flow.When i get the OK i'll mention it on the board.

Next stop was to pop in for lunch and see a trader friend at one of the Gann seminars.Interesting stuff.Anybody know anything about it all?Does anyone use Gann?

Had lots of eats with all the investors.What realy amazed me was that most of these guys looked like they were retired and of reasonably high net worth,but had such an old fashion way of looking at playing the market.

I think the tech boom passed them by.Not many understood a stop loss,trailing stop or what was meant about managing a position.Some had to have explained to them what shorting was and a few didnt understand what t/a was.Most still thought that you couldnt beat investing in strong old economy ftse 100 stocks.However they have been shaken by the recent falls and were sitting with losses.

As most portfollio figures i heard being talked about were 1/2million upwards.It amazed me how slow they were to react to changing market forces.It just enforces my mind that as we get older we have to take control of our own finances and this means keeping up with current ideas and stratergies.It's a shame that its taken some losses to galvanize them into looking at different ideas.

_________________________

Heres a tip when dealing with CEO's capture them away from the crowd.During the coversation say something strong. If he huffs and puffs its not true. If he smiles you've hit the nail on the head.I once did very well buying a stock by demanding that a CEO wasnt pulling his weight and the company should be seeking a full listiting and gave my reasons.He smiled.That was the signal to buy the stock.

I once caught Jim Slater in a qiet corner and complained about a few recomendations based on his peg sytem.What did he think about that.He promptly gave me the last tech stock that hed just personaly bought and the reasons why.I went straight out and bought this computer game stock and it flew.
 
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I've just been swaping e-mails with one of the female presenters at CNBC who is a good friend.We were talking about when there was all doom an gloom in the markets and i showed her an intraday graph and said.Look there's an island reversal i'm long from here.It turned out to be the beginning of the last major swing up.
Yes i did mention it on air and thought crikey your pushing your luck a bit.

Any way the Nasdaq Composite more and more seems to be following technical analysis principals.I notice this last seven day leg up started with.......You guessed it! another island reversal.

Last night when i was not trading but watching the Comp.I looked at the 50% fibonnacci level from the high of the last swing high in May and said to myself thats got to reverse intraday off this level and it duly obliged.

So perhaps theres more to this t/a stuff than i think! 🙂 By the way my t/a instructor banged it into my head that island reversals were extremely potent signals and this has always stayed with me.Anybody got any t/a ideas that they think work well on the Nasdaq?
 
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Absolutely no doubt about it, Island Reversals top and bottom are Bankables. Even more so because they are more often than not preceded by Expansion Gaps and finally Exhaustion Gaps. The thing is, as with all TA, what works for one stock/index, may not work with another. EG you'd be hard pushed to find any islands on the DOW...As you know, I'm as passionate about TA as you are about L2....
Island reversals are almost impossible to see in realtime charts..you can get close on 30 mins, but that's about as good as you get. This seems to be an exception to the rule that " TA works in all time scales".
As a side point, a recent study showed that trading "the gaps" was more profitable than swing trading. It assumes you can get the gap direction correct more often than not 🙂
As for specific ideas that work for the NAZ, you have to find what works for you, and what works on the NAZ. EG I have found that the DOW does not find support or resistance easily at 50% Fib. retracements. Is that true for the NAZ?
TA works on all "high volume " products. You just have to find those that you understand how and why, then test, then implement. I'm sure the DOW analysis techniques I use would work equally well on the NAZ if not better, as I feel the NAZ is more "predictable", or should that be "less unpredictable"? 🙂
 
Sppoky footnote..Curiosity got the better of me 🙂 Believe it or not, I rarely look at the NAZ.....But I've just looked at the Fibs for EOD peak on 21/05 and the low at 20/09.. these give the following retrace points

23% 1634
38% 1765
50% 1871
62% 1976

Now take a look at the 10 min NAZ RT chart...
We find support at 1634 a month later (19/10)
Resistance at 1780 (26/10)
drop to 1650 ( near 23%)
Resistance switch to support at 1780 (5/11-6/11)
Finally resistance at 1871 ( 50%)
Who says TA is a waste of time?

No doubt a retrace to 1785 and a re-test of 1870..... 🙂
 
Thanks for the reply chartman.I have noticed thru my trading of the Nasdaq that individual liquid stocks are very good at closing the gap,especialy intraday morning gaps.

One of my first plays is to watch for gapped stocks,wait for first indications of it closing and play it.However this play is so well known that many stocks now only half fill a gap in the first 1/2hr and then reverse.For swing plays on large up/down days that reverse in the process of filling the gap can often be the high or low of the day.

Catch it just right with your level 2 and you've just got a brilliant scalpers entry into a swing play that you can manage all day.

I enjoy playing the Naz 100 index thru playing QQQ's on my level 2 screen.It is traded on the Amex exchange and therefore dosnt have market maker particpation the same as the Nasdaq.However it is tradable on island.As island trades 1/4 of the volume of the Q's you can imagine how liquid it is trading it this way(thats maybe 20 million shares/day)

However that means looking at trading it slightly differently.I enjoy playing it with a mixture of t/a and island book/direct access skills.Here's how.

The Q's (Nasdaq 100 index) have fibonnacci levels working as support and resistance levels all the time,in all different time frames.The trick is to draw lots of them on your chart.the ones that work best are where a number of them coincide at the same point.The next is to have some kind of over bought oversold indicator in different intraday time frames and take the trade when you reach a fib level and your 1 minute and 3 or 5 minute indicator are bouncing offf extremes.Even better if the futures are giving the same signal.I like slow stochastics with 13 period time frame.Obviously i never want to pay a spread so i'll buy on the bid or short the offer on the island book. Direct access will fill me before the spread better has even got thru to his company.Then i manage the trade on the island book.

So there you have it a mixtureof t/a, island book and direct access get me into the trade as it happens with no spread in the blink of the eye.If i want to be cute i could quickly offer it out on the other side of the spread and capture a quick profit!but thats the scalper in me.Normaly i try for some kind of run.

As i've berated you all, over the wonderful features of Nasdaq level 2 direct access trading for so long and youve all been so good at listening to it without being rude to me and as you have all supported this thread to make it, i think, the fastest viewed thread ever i decide that i should realy be nice to you all so i succumbed and decided to talk a little about technical analysis.
I hope this last little piece will push the viewing figures to over a thousand views in just under 2 weeks.Incredible! 🙂
 
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Out and about again today and lucky to have a meeting with Options Direct.I was pleased to talk to such interesting people who are very much customer orientated.

I look forward to the continued development of their services and their forward thinking views.I would also like to point out that the $25,000 Nasdaq day trading rules does not apply to anyone trading with them.Your account of course is held in this country.Level 2 Nasdaq no problem.Food for thought.
 
You dont needed any fancy indicators to look at the Nasdaq at the moment.All you've got to do is trade the breakout of the consolidation range that were in.This is when i like trading the QQQ's.(Nasdaq 100 tracking stock) Dont predict! Just have your plan ready, stops ready,Watch any first half hour gaps.Be ready for maybe more chop but get ready for the next leg and jump on the train when it leaves the station.Manage the ride and jump off when the momentum stops.

Of course having access to Island on level 2 is a great way to play this as it allows you to buy on the bid,short the ask (paying no spread) so having a little dabble before the next move can always bank some scalping profits.

Remember no up tick rule and bags of liquidity means you can always get in and out in the blink of an eye which ever way it goes.The only boring scenario would be another day of more Chopiness.

Now if i want to trade the QQQ's my qoute on island when i want to trade is maybe $37.60-$37.64 and a spread bet quote if the stock was going to go up would be $37.64-$37.69.(Now i know they probably dont offer the Q's but just relate it to any Nasdaq stock) I checked the spread price against a stock price with a spread bet trader from one of the spread firms who i met personaly.
(who suprise ,suprise didnt have a clue about how you could buy on the Nasdaq and not pay a spread)

Now i presume we are all reasonably clever people.If i enter the stock at $37.60 because thats how my level 2 direct access system allows me to trade and you go and get in the trade at $37.69 havent i just beaten your entry price by 9c?

Now arent we in this game to make money?

I recently bought my daughter a brand new Ford KA and went to a large discount import group and saved nearly £2000.Because we are being ripped off on new car prices still in this country.I wondered why people still go to Ford Main agents and pay the full price.But they do!

Its the same with spread betting!

Companies are very good at explaining why we should be paying more for things and i'm always amazed at their creativity.So i look forward to the brainwashing answers that i hope some of you spread betters might like to give me.
🙂 😱
 
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Don't be too harsh on them Naz, we all have to start somewhere and gain our painful experiences. I, ( and many others) still put up with CMC's aweful "futures" driven quoting system....this means at the start of a "reasonable rally/tank", their price moves ahead by as much as 20 points on the DOW. Result? Get into a "glitch" or transient move and you're going to lose 30 points minimum, just to get in and out.
I'm going to post about "Easy2Trade" later- a far better system.I trialled it and was able ( more or less) to trade as you do- in between the spreads.Only thing is, they don't do USA yet 🙁
 
Now i just want to take this a lttle further.Just because i buy from one firm why should i have to deal with the same firm when i come to sell if i get a better price elsewhere.

For instance on the PRSF thread Roger posted the Island book and the price was $2.04-$2.18 at that time.Now if i see the best bid on inca is $2.01 i'll jump infront of it and hope to grab some stock at $2.02.Now using level 2 Nasdaq this dosnt mean i have to use the same company to sell the stock.If people are willing to pay $2.18 on island I'll go and hide my order $2.17.If someone out there wants to deal at $2.18 they will get a price improvement and buy my stock at $2.17.Why did i hide my order? so the guy who's selling dosnt know someone's jumped infront of him.

Now on the PRSF thread Roger and i were posting things as they were happening, live.The anticipated move at the end of trading day didnt come off but i still made 4.55% profit by trading within the spreads with different companies.

Imagine if you took a spread position out with one company and tried to close it out with another who were offering a better price!

I know we all start somewhere but very often its worth spending some time learning with someone who can do it before risking your hard earnt money.For instance one tip from my t/a instructor about island reversals has been handsomely rewarded over the last six weeks on the Nasdaq.
 
Hi all. this thread is bloody great' information facts everything you want. It has given me a new outlook on trading. thanks to all posters. chaders.😀
 
Hi Chaders thanks for responding.There are a lot of very clever traders on this board who trade with different styles of trading.As Chartman has said we seem to be passionate about the different styles we trade.The nice thing is that everyone seems to enjoy reading someone elses post because they realise that knowledge is power and we always need to have an open mind.

This week i was told that beginners have enjoyed looking at this site because it tends to give facts and not silly school boy humour that some bb's give.

I've also been pleased to hear that Brokerage directors in the investment community in New York and the City of London have checked this thread out this week.If you can attract 1200 views in two weeks with sensible and interesting items then this will attract the same type of viewer.

I have been asked to send my comments on some trading software to a UK brokerage.So here is a great oppertunity for every one who uses this site to let me know what kind of things they would like to see in a direct access trading software package.

What orders would you like?what kind of stops? etc etc.What would a beginner like to see?What would a seasoned trader like to see?

People listen because you are potential customers.Now i've got a chance to air my views to the right people,if you would like to contribute on the above then lets hear it.Otherwise i'll take it that youre quite happy how things are.

Infact anyone at any level,feel free to say how you feel about anything to do with trading the markets.This thread is for you!
 
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naz / chartman / anyone - need to ask a question which i am sure others would love to know the answer to......whilst catching up on the last few days postings on 'market chat' i note several references to 'island reversals'......could you please explain exactly what this and what is the best way of spotting them. thank you
 
I should realy let chartman use his expertise to answer this question but here goes.

An island is defined as a piece of trading that is bounded by an up gap and a down gap.Which has the appearance on a chart to make that piece of trading look like an island.One of the most common is the one day island.It must appear after a signaificant move either up or down.

Japanese candle technicians like to refer to it as an abandoned baby.It can easily be spotted on intraday graphs and daily bar graphs but line charts would blend in the gap and it wouldnt be seen.

The psychology may be as follows.In a down trend for instance the crowd become conditioned to its direction.A continuation down gap will just be added confirmation of the markets weaknes.

When the market gaps up the next day sentiment is severely affected and greed will come in to players that bottom fish.At the same time shorts will have to buy to cover their positions.This sentiment from both sets of players can be enough to reverse the trend.Very often on the Nasdaq the up gap can get filled and when the players see that there is support near the island area this has the same effect as a higher low which confirms doubters views that the short term trend has changed and its safe to go long.

I hope this hurried explanation helps.
 
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I've started a separate thread on island reversals with some interesting results based on trading them mechanically.

Regards,
 
These postings are excellent! Are there any particular stratagies that could be applied to the Footse? (spreadbetting)
Re the previous comment on spreadbetting, many people like myself use this technique because its simple and not time consuming. (When learning) However because of the spread as previously noted it can be difficult turn a profit consistantly!🙂
 
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