Market chat

[techMark]

Saw your post on the semis thread Naz and decided to post this here.

Interesting too that the Nasdaq itself closed the September island reversal on Friday. Also confirming 1625 still remains a key s/r level. Any thoughts on a possible target for a turnaround? It looks less clear to me but a double bottom at the September low would be rather nice.

 

[Naz]

Hi TechMark,

I'm not looking for a turnaround at the moment.When it happens the Nasdaq seems to have a way of signaling it.ie through the sectors,the tier one generals or some kind of t/a on the index.

I always like hunting for things and i've found something that might make a few think.I've often found that the $Nbi can quite often fortell things like in the New Year when the comp made a higher high but the $nbi led the market by making a lower high which was a prelude to the market fall.

Now to make all bulls shudder look at the chart of the $nbi now and see that its already taken out its September low.Is it once again telling us something? Only time will tell.

 

[ChartMan]

It tells me the biotech's are in deep deep clag and are going to be a nice cheap buy sometime......

 

[Naz]

Meanwhile traders that are bears make money and only turn bulls when the trend turns.

 

[Naz]

The chart below shows the Nasdaq trend since this thread posted the first island reversal marked with the red line.

Will there be a turnaround in some kind of time frame,yes.Will we see it yes.Will some traders make a bag full of money by catching it like April last year,yes.

We all have our own views on where we think the market maybe heading and sometimes not to sure what its going to do next but lets just remind ourselves of what the current Nasdaq trend is.

That saying that has been used before is all important "Trade what you see not what you think"

When it turns it will show us.

 

[Naz]

I said when it turns it will show us.One day on the Nas is nothing its the pullback that counts.Historically it has always been how it treats that gap that matters and what the index does when it hits the fib levels.

Just look at that 4 day island in the middle of April in the chart above.All islands start with a gap.The low last Sep was made when the gap was filled and it made the higher low.In down trends the bulls get suckered all the time by these bounces,they are right just once.Its picking the one time they are right that counts.

 

[Naz]

I was scalping NTAP short on fri and when i covered at one time, it was so slow that i copied off the bid from my nas level 2 screen and thought i might show it for any one who was interested.I also add the chart at that time as well.

Here is the bid as we approached $15.JPHQ is the ax.


ARCA 15.00 45
BRUT 15.00 1
SBSH 15.00 7
PIPR 15.00 10
GVRC 15.00 8
MLCO 15.00 92
PACS 15.00 1
WATH 15.00 8
NITE 15.00 33
FBCO 15.00 1
PERT 15.00 8
CIBC 15.00 33
DAIN 15.00 45
SUSQ 15.00 10
WEED 15.00 10
INCA 14.99 1
WCHV 14.99 1
NDBC 14.99 1
CEUT 14.99 1
MONT 14.99 10
ISLD 14.98 10
COWN 14.98 1
JPHQ 14.97 10

Here is the bid at exactly the bottom and the time to cover 33sec later.

JPHQ 15.05 10
WATH 15.04 7
BRUT 15.04 6
SCHB 15.01 20
ARCA 15.00 45
NFSC 15.00 18
PIPR 15.00 18
GVRC 15.00 8
PACS 15.00 1
NITE 15.00 33
FBCO 15.00 1
PERT 15.00 45
CIBC 15.00 10
DAIN 15.00 10
SUSO 15.00 1
WEED 15.00 1
NDBC 14.99 1
CEUT 14.99 1
MONT 14.99 1
COWN 14.98 1
SLKC 14.96 1

Notice how JPHQ raises his bid and held it soaking up all the selling that was going on.He called the bottom at that moment in time seen on that chart,then every one followed and up we went.It was the signal to close the short.If you wanted to scalp on the long side for 20c or so that was the time to get in and your initial stop if the ecn's disappeared was a soes order straight into all that support at $15.00.Risk reward about 3/1 for the scalp.

 

[Naz]

Just for overall interest and as a continuation from the previous post at the end of page 7 of the thread.I'll just post the chart of NTAP over a number of days to show the island that formed.

 

[Naz]

I saw this interesting Nasdaq chart which gives some good levels to trade off.So i thought i'd post it.MM's to watch are JPHQ FBCO GSCO MLCO.Anybody else got anything?

 

[Naz]

Here is the follow up.JPHQ certainly showed the way down on the level 2 screen aided by GSCO.The falling market helped as well.The red line indicated the resistance level where JPHQ was a seller.This level was also just under the 38% fib level from the open to the low of the previous trading day.The gap in trading was the US bank holiday. All in all not a bad 1 1/2 hrs work.

 

[Naz]

I noticed that previously MSFT likes to make higher lows that are nearly double bottoms in the $48-$51 area before a change in trend of itself and the Nasdaq composite.Chart attached.

 

[Naz]

If MSFT does happen to hold and bounce in this $48-$51 region one stock i always keep on my watch list to tuck away for a while is LGTO.It has a history of some great percentage moves over weeks and months. For some days ive been keeping an eye on that pullback.I post the chart for interest.

 

[Naz]

The Phlx Gold and Silver index $XAU.X is still in a nice uptrend and one stock that is benefiting is Barrick Gold (ABX),which has just had a nice little pullback.

 

[martino]

Saturns Return

Does anyone here have any views on the following? Maybe you know of a web site based on the topic?

Some time in January 2000 i was managing a team during the dot.com boom in a support function for a high profile high volume on-line stock broker. The team were responsible for the handling of complaints and staff/customer trade errors.

I'd read an article written by a well known astrologer who was discussing the iminent alignment of 5 planets that were last aligned just over 700 years previously. In other words it had taken these particlur 5 planets 700 years to complete a full cycle around the Sun. She went on to say that this alignement would be happen 2 months later on March 4th 2000.

The interesting thing about this article was that i had read about the event in the Economist annual Year Ahead magazine which i buy every year so i knew she was discussing something real.

She went on to say that there could be some kind of crash in the markets followed by a financial melt down.

I must have told all of my team and most of my freinds that there was going to be a stock market crash on March 4th 2000 and they just laughed at me. On March 5th 2000 the Tech Market crashed and the rest is history.

This link between the stock market crash and the planetary alignment has intrigued me for ages and soon afterwards i learned that the planet Saturn was in my birth sign from early 2001.

Now Saturn is a slow moving planet. It takes it just over 29 years to complete a full circle around the sun. Now whilst Saturn is travelling it takes approximately 2.5 years to move through a star sign (12 star signs makes one complete circle which is the zodiac and represents Saturns one year) and it was due to spend 2.5 years with me from early 2001. At the time of posting Saturn will move from my sign to the next sign in around 2 months time and will then spend 2.5 years with the next star sign. Im a Gemini so if your a Taurus your'e welcome to him.

Now in astrological terms Saturn is a planet that makes you grow up. It makes you think about your life. For example it could make you realise that the last time we met was 29 years ago and that ive had 29 years given to me so what have i done with the time? In the next breath it reminds you that when he leaves me to move onto the next sign that it will be 29 years before we meet again. What will you do with this time?

So i checked a few things out and i discovered that i was 7 years old when Saturn was last with me and that was in 1972.

Now in 1972 i am sure that all the markets were in a Tiz. Although i was only 7 at the time i remember the oil crisis. I remember queing with my Dad for petrol. I remember the Gold rally. There were VAT scams from retail Gold. Krugerans were the rage. I remember i was standing in a shop with brand spanking new coins in my hand which i later learned wasthe result of decimilization in UK. I remember the 1973 Yom Kippur. All of these things fitted a time span of around 2.5 years.

What intrigues me is the similarities between events of the early 1970's and the events early in the new millenium and the link to Saturns cycle which astrologists call "Saturn's Return".

Weve had our stock market crash. Weve had our Aphganistan war. Weve got a Gold rally. Weve had 9-11 and weve even had a new currency. The Euro. Even a house price bubble forming.

Any thoughts?

 

[stevet]

there are a lot of "unexplainable", but repeatable cycles, that occur again and again, and are correclated to economies and by extension stock markets

and they are as fascinating as they are pointless to try to trade off - there are so many easy ways to trade, that despite the validity of the alternative signals, these althernative signals tend to be long term in nature, and i want to spend my money in this lifetime, not the next!

 

[Mr. Charts]

The answers are in the market and in ourselves, not "out there".
Human beings seem to have a psychological need to search for supernatural causes in order to cope with their helplessness and alienation in the face of factors they - we - find too diverse and difficult to understand.
We must think for ourselves all our lives - even if we are stardust.

 

[dsmodi]

the planets

Martino,

Personally, I don't know about how stars and planets may correlate with the stock market or anything else, but I do know for sure that there are a lot of people in the market that use this form of trading.

As an example, W.D.Gann, who is reputed to be one of the most stock market traders of the last century (he has his portrait at the entrance to the NYSE or NASDAQ), used astronomy/astrology to make decisions in his trading. You may want to follow up searching on internet for him.

As I say, I don't use this but maybe there's something in it.....


p.s. I'm Taurean - and was also 7 in 1972 - have the last 2.5 years been full of problems for yourself? Should I be worried?......yikes....

 

[martino]

Thanks for that Mr Charts

I actually spend a lot of time on line in chat rooms and ive also noticed that when there is a full moon (once a month) the chat rooms always always have nearly double the number of people chatting than any other regular night during the month.

These Lunatics obviously suffer from Lunacy.

I wonder if there's a correlation between the stock market and the full moon cycle?

Ill watch out for it and comment if i have anything to report


moc

 

[stevet]

the correlation between the moon cycles and stockmarkets has been researched many times and all the results have been inconclusive - but i would guess that is because a trader was not responsible for the research and therefore - the researchers did not know what to look for - except in its simplest form - and traders are too busy making money to get involved in research - it does not matter what causes a move, and you dont have to be ahead, you just have to join near when the move starts

 

[options]

To mis quote.
"There are more things on heaven and earth Horatio"

Heaven and hell are more closer than any one realises.
Lol, ask any trader!
You have strong views Stevet; and I respect that. you obviously know your trade. Yet have you such a closed mind that nothing else is possible?
I know of one trader who retired under the age of 30 to sunnier
climes. Barbados I think it was. And he never made a move without consulting his 'stars' via his medium.
Who am I to knock that? I'm still working!
Okay, he only lasted 3 weeks before he got bored, (and frankly I find that length of time a marathon to endure)
but that was his main method. Wacky? maybe.
It is common knowledge that the sun and more so, the moon have a 'pull' on our behaviour.
Now, could not someone study this and base their trades on that methodolgy.
I always say, don't knock what you don't understand.
carrying on this thread, the 'runes' would have you dying by your own sword. one way or another as an unbeliever )

To all traders whatever your method. Good fortune.

Options