Marc Rivalland - Swing Trading

[barjon]

danfreek

mmm, I use something akin to the Rivalland approach and although I play around with other things my swing trading is my main preoccupation.

Entries, both initial and additions, are easy (not necessarily profitable, just easy ) since they are based on specific set ups and set conditions. Thus, they trigger or they don't and I'm either stoplossed out or I'm not. Aside from the odd spike triggered stop all that's no problem.

Exits are something else. Usually, I'm pretty quick to take some profit and move my stop to ensure breakeven overall but, aside from that element, I don't have specific exit criteria (perhaps I should ). Instead, rather like you maybe, I rely on "candle judgement". When I analysed my last year's trading I concluded that I had left far too much on the table and it's an area where I need to improve. Hence the question.

good trading

jon

 

[danfreek]

Yeah, leaving too much on the table can be a problem,

I'm trying to tighten up my exit strategy, hopefully I'll get some good tips from "trading day by day" which I should have soon.

Going back to the FTSE in particular, if today is another doji, I might consider putting a stop under the low, two doji's in a row near an important resistance level doesn't look good for my trade, although there's still 4 hours of trading left to change that outlook.

Dan

 

[tomorton]

Hi Danfreek -

Sorry late coming back to you.

I'm not in FTSE at present and would feel unhappy being long FTSE when DJIA is in downtrend (I am short Dow from 24th though that entry was early). Hampered at moment by lack of PC at home.

Tom

 

[danfreek]

That's a very going point that I'm ashamed to say I forgot. I'm ready to take profits from my FTSE trade now if I get the signs. Yesturday was more bullish than I thought it would be, but having said that, it wasn't strongly bullish. This is becoming a catchphrase now, but I'll have to see what the market does today. I'm not making any predictions about this one, just taking it one step at a time.

Dan

P.S. tomorton, what made you short the DOW specifically?

 

[tomorton]

Hi Dan -

Dow broke swing low of 10484 on 20/01. This backed up by reversal to downtrend since start of year.

 

[sake]

ID name

I recently purchased Marc Rivalland's new book on swing trading using modified Gann bar charts and P&F charts, does anyone here use the principles outlined in his book and if so have they had any success ?

ps does anyone know how I can change my ID name ?

I have tried to change my ID name with no success ,password is not a problem but i think T2W
admin may be able to help, otherwise you will have to re register with. the ID you want .

 

[danfreek]

Hi Dan -

Dow broke swing low of 10484 on 20/01. This backed up by reversal to downtrend since start of year.

Ah, right. I don't follow the Dow at the moment, so I hadn't seen that myself.

Btw, for anyone who is interested, I got out of my trade on the FTSE 15 points up at 4812.

 

[jonnyy40]

Imo we're in a DOW uptrend.

 

[tomorton]

Hi jonny40 -

It depends how you define your trend. Marc Rivalland's method and website would suggest the Dow went into downtrend as it fell through 10484 on 20/01. Lately it has risen of course, but it has not yet formed an uptrend as it hasn't breached the December high. People going short after 20/01 should have been shaken out as the index rose and hit their stops. Of course, if you look further in time the index does appear to be in uptrend. I feel his method is precise as regards entry points but as subjective as anyone else's as regards trend slopes at any given moment. In any case, trends reverse, eventually.

 

[rglenn]

At present the only thing that I can see that can stop the Dow from continuing upwards is the price of Oil and of course a disaster which can happen at anytime.

I don't trade the Dow much these days as I am currently looking at forex which Is a much more stable instrument than the Dow - depending on which pairs you trade of course

 

[jonnyy40]

Just as well I'm not a Marc Rivalland follower.

 

[tomorton]

Nobody has a perfect personal system. And the followers / imitators / copiers of such a system (like me) cannot be expected to make the same success rate as the originator anyway. I get 60-65% success rate trading the Dow and FTSE100 by Marc's methodology, fairly loosely applied, a rate I find acceptable. And following Marc's stop-loss advice means never risking excessive draw-down on the 35-40% that go wrong. Effectively, the loss, not counting the spread and bias on the trade from the spreadbetting company, is one day's range on the index of choice. I feel that has to be worth pursuing.

 

[danfreek]

I really like Rivallands method. I use a modified version myself, but when I did use it in it's pure form it was very effective. the only reason I modified it was to fit inot the other package of methods that I have put together into my own strategy which I didn't want to stop using.

Tomorton has hit the nail on the head though, no system is ever perfect, and using just a single example to judge a system is not a very good way to find a method you're happy with.

 

[Second income trader]

Use with Forex?

Has anyone tried Marc's system on Forex, particularly Cable or Euro/$?

 

[danfreek]

How ironic! I was thinking of looking at how the method stands up both EOD and intraday on cable. I'll let you know what I conclude.

 

[Second income trader]

That would be great! Have you tried it intraday on the indices? If so what time periods did you use and what indices?

Many thanks,

 

[danfreek]

Currently I only use it EOD on the major indecies, i.e. FTSE 100, DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, DAX. It works very well in that time frame. I am currently finishing my last week in my current job, next week I will have the time free to look properly at the intraday viability, I will mainly be looking at cable, but I may also look as the US indicies intraday.

 

[Second income trader]

Glad to hear that it's working well! I've decided to start using the Rivalland system on the Dow EOD, but my only concern is the signals are so infrequent. Is this why you trade all the indices mentioned? Also do you use charts based on the market hours (i.e. FTSE 8-4), or the full 24 hour day including futures (hope that makes sense!).

 

[danfreek]

That's exactly why I look at several markets. The DOW especially doesn't give signals very often, it has two reversal days and then takes off again. I'm going to look at using two days on the DOW instead of three, but I'll need to look over a lot of past data before I commit myself.

I use the normal market hours, when the cash market moves, the futures tend to do the same thing because of arbitrage, and that's the closest I can get, I could look only at futures prices, but I find that the extra volatility just makes the signals a little more fuzzy and doesn't help me, so I use the cash price, but that's a personal thing.

 

[vocalist]

Hi guys,sorry to stick a spanner in the works here but I guess thats what these boards are for,a healthy debate.

Im sure I heard from someone that last year Rivallands swing trading method on the ftse made a small loss or at very best just about broke even as reported by himself in The Financial Times.

I have tried using his methods from his book on the spx and Nasdaq but alas it doesnt seem to work for me.Consistently get stopped out on breach of a high or a low and when entering off a swing break with a reasonable stop.

Maybe im doing something wrong here.Do I use a simple moving average to filter trades.

Please PM me if anyone would like.Many thanks.Ash