Evening All,
OK, I'm home from the day job & can now give T_D's post the time it deserves.
"First off lets look at the pin bar itself (see chart)
If you are unsure whether a pin is a good one remember to ask yourself THREE questions. You want to be able to answer YES to all of them."
In a nutshell, yes. I use the pinbar identification spreadsheet that was posted by another user on this forum. I was happy with how the questions on this file matched the pin-bar's formation.
"
1. Does it have a long nose in proportion to its body?
The range of the whole bar (high to low) is $10.65 and the range of the body is $2.53. Therefore the size of the body is just under 25% of the range of the bar. That is just about acceptable."
This statement confused me when I saw it in work - hence the need to check my chart on my PC (which is at home - I'm not willing to risk the trouble I'd get into by downloading MT4 in my workplace). Here's why:-
The high of the pin-bar is 912.55; the low is 891.90 - a difference of $20.65. This figure was still clearly in my mind when I placed the demo trade, because my capital at risk in my demo account worked off this figure.
Sorry to be pedantic about the numbers! For my considerable sins, I work alot with figures each day, so for better or worse, I've good attention-to-detail with maths.
I do agree that the body's range is $2.53 (Phew!!!)
So:-
=> 2.53/ 20.65 = 10% (approx) < 25% => 1st condition satisfied.
"
2. Does it have its close within the range of the previous bar and near to the previous bars high or low?
Yes"
I actually think the close of my pinbar is one pip below the low of the previous bar!
More importantly, I was still happy with my pin-bar cf. the ID rules on the pinbar.xls file.
So: 2nd condition satisfied.
"
3. Does it have its body in the top or bottom third of the range?
The range is $10.65. "
Gotta disagree here. Unless I'm missing something (& I'm glad to be corrected on this, if true!!), I believe the range is $20.65, as above
"$10.65 / 3 = $3.55"
Have this as: ($10.65 / 3 + $10 / 3) = ($3.55 + $3.33) = $6.88
"The high of the daily range is $912.55.
So $912.55 - $3.55 = $909
So we want to see the close (which is the low of the candle body) above $909.
Unfortunately the close was $903.40 so the pin bar has FAILED To meet this criteria."
I have this as:-
H = $912.55
L = $891.90
O = $905.93
C = $ 903.40
$891.90 + $6.88 x 2 = $891.90 + $13.76 = $905.66 (it's been a long day, might have got this wrong).
The open is marginally above this level; so I took this to be ok.
Now I realise that it's the close for a long trade (and open for a short) that must exceed the 66.67 percentile (ie 2/3rds of the way up matey!) of the pin-bar.
So there-in lies my mistake on the pin-bar set-up.
I still think it was pretty close -as the pin-bar set-up rules go - to our ideal pin.
"Now of course after time you get to know whether these pin bars are good enough to take without doing the calculations I have done above but this is simply for illustration.
Of course the pin bar itself is only HALF the story. What is important is WHERE the pin bar occurs.
Lets have a look at that next:
Support/Resistance Pivots
There is no significant s/r pivot."
In a number of posts throughout the thread, a running theme seems to be that perfect pin-bar set-ups on the Daily timeframe are sufficient enough on their own to trigger a trade.
It was only when you cut down the TF did you require extra info. (However, I may have got this wrong! Again, please, please put me straight if I've mis-construed.)
"
Fib Levels
The "pin" hits the 50 fib from the last swing low. This is good."
I did actually see this - so I've just contradicted my above point!
But in all seriousness, I place more emphasis on S/R than on Fibs, so T_D's pivot point note above is valid.
S/R is vital.
"
Would the order have even been triggered?
You should be entering on a BREAK of the previous days high NOT in anticipation of it. As you can see from my chart, the high has not been broken so even if the setup was perfect, a position would still not be taken."
Agreed - finally, we agree on something!! No seriously, this is a part of your trade management startegy that I mis-understood. Or "let the market come to you", as a wise trader once said
Summary
"I hate to say it but this looks like a very weak setup and not one I would have taken.
That doesn't necessarily matter. Gold is in an uptrend and you are buying a retracement. You may find yourself bailed out by the trend on this one. But to clarify, the pin is not a good one, there is no real pivot and the previous days high has not been taken out. All you have is a fib level and the trend. It may be enough but "may" is not a situation I would like to put my money behind."
Again, I want to thank you for taking the time to review & constructively comment on my trade.
Having reviewed your post, I believe the pin-bar was actually bit better than your analysis concludes - however, this is based on my successful calculation of the range of $20.65.
Certainly, I didn't let the close of the pin lie in the upper third of this "proposed" pin-bar.
Gold is of course on the up, but then all commodities act as an inflation-proof capital preservation asset during times of financial turmoil. However, we wish to trade price & price action only, not fundamentals.
Or should read:-"I'm trying to trade price, you already can"
Ultimately, I believe my trade was incorrect because my entry was flawed. I didn't realise I should wait until the pin after the "pin-bar" broke the high of it's predecessor.
Something for me to consider in future.
Thanks a mill for your time & patience again.
As we all know at this stage, the trade was stopped out (!), but there are times when what you learn from losers far outweigh the profits from winners.
Thanks for reading.
Good luck.[/QUOTE]