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Trade update *Wheat*

Lets have a detailed look at this position that I still have open.

Take a look at chart 1

This is an hourly chart. The horizontal line that runs through the middle of it is an S/R pivot on the daily TF.

As Fridays session closed you can see that although price had broken this level, the market had come off the highs.

As Monday opened it is clear that the market runs into difficulty and prints a series of successively lower highs that were just holding above the pivot (see arrow in red).

This was a warning to me to move my stop in closer.

As a result, I decided to bring it in tight to 826 (red line). There were several reasons I put it here:

- It was my breakeven point (remember December Wheat closed me out for 35 cents profit (£175) and this is where my March contract was opened.

- It gives price some room to react to the S/R pivot. Remember these areas are more like zones. You should give them some leeway. How much is down to the individual trader.

- If the trend is strong, normally price will hit the 10 EMA and continue on its way. Therefore I put my stop behind this.

Price then moved lower throughout the day but held at the 10 as anticipated.

Tuesday afternoon price moves back up off the 10 and through the resistance. Now at this point I decided to make an aggressive move.

Wheat has performed very well for me and as I wrote earlier, when I am right on a market I want to make as much money as I can.

You will see that price formed a THREE BAR HIGH in the afternoon with the highs just above the pivot (see circled candles).

You can view a TWO or THREE BAR HIGH as a CONTINUATION PATTERN. If price breaks it (in this case higher) you would anticipate a trend continuation. As it has the added confluence of appearing at a pivot I decided to put an order to DOUBLE my position on a break.

I put my corresponding STOP order on the new position at the same place as the position already open.

The order triggered on the next bar giving me a net long position of £10 a point.

I had a little concern that I had bought a fake out when the entry candle closed at the low but price resumed its climb into the close.

Wednesday price went LIMIT UP giving me a profit of:

+ 55 cents (£275) on position 1
+ 35 cents ((£175) on position 2

The stop for my first position remains at 826. I have moved the stop on the second to breakeven at 846.

Chart 2 shows the S/R pivots on the March contract. (Ignore the current day which shows a pin forming as it is the result of electronic trading pre-market open).
 

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Hi TD,

I just wondered when i saw your new direct market chart at post #818.
Did you use a different MA there? because on my chart it doesn't touch the 21 EMA.
And i think we're looking at the same chart here, mine is from Nort Finance.
Just qurious.

Reas
 

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Hi TD,

I just wondered when i saw your new direct market chart at post #818.
Did you use a different MA there? because on my chart it doesn't touch the 21 EMA.
And i think we're looking at the same chart here, mine is from Nort Finance.
Just qurious.

Reas

Reas,

How odd! Here is my chart which is also from North Finance (see arrow)

Right click on your EMA and check the parameters. Mine are all EXPONENTIAL and apply to CLOSE.

Tom
 

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TD,

Mine are too, but also the shift is set at 5 (default setting) maybe that causes the difference?
 
Reas, I did a search on what the shift parameter refers too and it seems like it is the number of bars back from the current bar that the period starts from.

So I believe if you have a shift of 5, it will start counting your moving average from the fifth bar back.

If it 0 then it starts from the current bar.

Tom
 
trendline

Hello TD,

Do you mind showing a graph in the Daily TF showing your ascending trendline for the GBFCHF trade you documented.

Thanks.
 
GBP pin

Hi TD,

Pls have a look at this pin in gbpusd . This week its forming like a pin, yet we have time & will know at the end of week, has touched 50% fib (second circled pin). I am not sure of this second pin as its already rallying down & this pin like formation, what does it signals actually...? Your views appreciated.

Fxbee
 

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dow move- lots of features

Hi Folks,

This move on the dow seemed to have quite a few features:

  • bounce off yesterday's resistance @ 13225
  • small retrace at 'g' with a sort of gap fill thingy.
  • re-test of 13270, also a support region from yesterday.
  • finally enough momentum to see off 13300 and 13320 resistance

Unfortunately I couldn't hold on to the whole move, but there you go.
Sorry if this is tedious, it's just that I'm excited 'cause I've never been able to spot this stuff before. Am I reading too much into it?

Best Regards,
Neil
 

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Zwh8

I'm short the Wheat - filled at 893.5 - unfortunately I was requoted 5 points worse and accidentally took it when I was being bid 894. However, I'm in short based on H1, H4, and daily pin bars from an important S/R level. Holding over the weekend, first target down at 846. Charts to follow. This was too good a setup to pass up. Stops are in at 914.
 
Trade update *March Wheat*

That's a very good setup, Lurker.

I am still long from lower prices.

However, yesterday when I saw it failed to hold above the 900 round number and S/R pivot and formed a two bar pin bar (the two bars if combined into one would form a pin bar), I sold £5 short in another account.

Today when the market opened, I realised that the broker I went short with was quoting the market in 0.25c rather than 1c as I am used too. Of course this meant I had a risk four times the expected size. As soon as I saw this I covered the position which fortunately gave me a profit of £200.

I had no choice but to do this since the only place to put my stop that I could see made sense was above the highs and that meant simply too much risk.

As it happens I covered near the low and then price reversed and formed that pin at the double top. I am not going to close my long positions (which are based on the daily TF) on the strength of this hourly bar but I am moving the stop up on the second position to just beneath todays reaction low at 868. The first positions stop remains at 829. (see red lines on chart)

Good luck with this Lurker.
 

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Trade update *Eur/Gbp*

The market didn't hold above my support so out I come for a profit of 101 pips (£101).
 

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