Making Money Trading

[trader_dante]

With the markets "opening" in a few hours, would TD care to tell us what he is looking for?

I'd be interested to know which setups he is thinking of taking should they transpire. Naturally it would be better to enter some of these high risk daily pins on an hourly bar.

I have added Usd/Jpy, Usd/Chf, Eur/Usd and the FTSE 100 to the other markets in my portfolio to watch on the hourly TF.

TD - what do you think of USDJPY - I know you mention it is a pin, and without further confluence. Would you consider taking an hourly pin long and holding if it breaks the PDH?

If I see an hourly pin bar I will analyse it in the context it appears in.

 

[forexbee]

I have added Usd/Jpy, Usd/Chf, Eur/Usd and the FTSE 100 to the other markets in my portfolio to watch on the hourly TF.

Hi TD,

If you have added the above three to watch for hourly TF, does it mean you check for any pin entry on hourly and enter (Sorry for the naive question). An if so , is there any duration you wait for hourly entry on these above pairs & ftse? ( Like x hours if we have a daily pin)

Again if there is a good daily pin found, is it bound to give us a hourly pin !?

Fxbee

 

[trader_dante]

Hi forexbee,

If you have added the above three to watch for hourly TF, does it mean you check for any pin entry on hourly and enter (Sorry for the naive question).

No, it simply means that I have a bias.

In the case of Eur/Usd for example, I have a short bias.

That does NOT mean I will drop down to the hourly and take ANY pin bar short.

The reason I don't want to take the pin on the daily TF short is partly because the stop is too wide but mainly because I do not like the way that it took out the low of the previous day but failed to CLOSE below it. Instead it created an S/R pivot.

So in this case what I will do is add the Eur/Usd to my list and look for lower risk entries around that S/R pivot. It may be a pin. It may be an inside bar. There may be no setup at all.

There is even a possibility that I will change my bias if the pivot holds and price action indicates a long entry.

A trader should be quick to adapt to changing market conditions.

An if so , is there any duration you wait for hourly entry on these above pairs & ftse? ( Like x hours if we have a daily pin)

No, I will take setups as and when they occur.

Again if there is a good daily pin found, is it bound to give us a hourly pin !?

It is a possibility but certainly not a given.

 

[lurkerlurker]

Hmm - markets open - a few gaps here and there, but not on GBP/EUR/USD-Yen. I doubt there will be any signals to enter the market until at least midnight, but would remind those who I have made the service available to that the hourly pin bar signal website will be calling pins which may occur from 10PM onwards. If you are interested in this service, please PM for the URL. I am reluctant to open this to the public at large and publish the URL, but I feel the service may be of use to busy people who are following the methods on this thread.

EUR/USD looks interesting - again, I don't want to call a top in this, whatever Trichet might say, but as TD says, a lower risk pin might appear closer to the S/R pivot which would allow a small short to be taken there.

 

[forexbee]

GBP pin - analysis

Hi TD

Last week couple of pins in GBPUSD appeared to be valid one. (again you have to vategories its valid perfect or not).

Your analysis would be helpful. First circled pin seems to be perfect one with support/resistance around 13Nov. Again second too got a S/R around 20Nov & 22Nov with nearby fib 23.6% (not peek thru).

Fxbee

 

[trader_dante]

Woah...

I thought I was on Lurkers journal for a moment...

 

[lurkerlurker]

Woah...

I thought I was on Lurkers journal for a moment...

Sorry - I've just scrolled up and seen the posts. Do you want me to edit / remove them? Also, I think my live trade calls do belong on my journal as I was saying that I would be putting my forex trading in there.

Thanks for the pips!

 

[trader_dante]

Hi Lurker,

No need to remove them but perhaps you can put some additional comments on a market, or an open trade, into the original post next time

One point to make on your Gbp/Jpy trade: I'm afraid you're reading your fibs incorrectly.

You should all be really careful of this because you may be basing a trade on something completely wrong.

The fibs you have drawn show you how much the market will retrace upwards.

This is NOT what you want because you are attempting to trade LONG based on the idea that the short term trend UP has had a significant retracement DOWN.

Remember, if you are trying to determine the retracement levels of a trend UP, then you need to draw fibs from the recent swing low to the recent swing high.

See chart with arrow indicating the points to draw from and to.

If anyone is at all confused with fibs, let me know and I will put up some more lessons. They are a very useful tool but you must draw them right or they will give you misleading information.

 

[forexbee]

usdjpy pin

Hi Guys

USDJPY Pin was really a good one, perfect or whatever we can call, had a fib & S/R confluence. It could be useful for reference i hope so.

Fxbee

 

[lurkerlurker]

Hi Lurker,

No need to remove them but perhaps you can put some additional comments on a market, or an open trade, into the original post next time

One point to make on your Gbp/Jpy trade: I'm afraid you're reading your fibs incorrectly.

You should all be really careful of this because you may be basing a trade on something completely wrong.

The fibs you have drawn show you how much the market will retrace upwards.

This is NOT what you want because you are attempting to trade LONG based on the idea that the short term trend UP has had a significant retracement DOWN.

Remember, if you are trying to determine the retracement levels of a trend UP, then you need to draw fibs from the recent swing low to the recent swing high.

See chart with arrow indicating the points to draw from and to.

If anyone is at all confused with fibs, let me know and I will put up some more lessons. They are a very useful tool but you must draw them right or they will give you misleading information.

More lessons please. I realised my error about the fibs at the worst possible point in that trade - 50 odd pips drawdown. I then thought that fibs were something that appeared to be so simple I'd never really learned how to use them. I then started worrying if I should cover the trade, but thankfully I didn't!

I've asked the mods to shift the posts to my journal, and I'll be more concise in the future. Must dash...

 

[trader_dante]

Hi TD

Last week couple of pins in GBPUSD appeared to be valid one. (again you have to vategories its valid perfect or not).

Your analysis would be helpful. First circled pin seems to be perfect one with support/resistance around 13Nov. Again second too got a S/R around 20Nov & 22Nov with nearby fib 23.6% (not peek thru).

Fxbee

Hi Fxbee,

Can you actually circle the pins if you still want an answer on this? I can't tell which ones you mean

 

[trader_dante]

Hi Guys

USDJPY Pin was really a good one, perfect or whatever we can call, had a fib & S/R confluence. It could be useful for reference i hope so.

Fxbee

Hi Fxbee,

Unfortunately this pin would likely have resulted in a breakeven trade the way I play them. Nonetheless it is a good example.

As you say, the pin hits a minor S/R pivot which has fib confluence.

You've drawn your fibs correctly, too

 

[forexbee]

Hi Fxbee,

Unfortunately this pin would likely have resulted in a breakeven trade the way I play them. Nonetheless it is a good example.

As you say, the pin hits a minor S/R pivot which has fib confluence.

You've drawn your fibs correctly, too

Hi TD,

Thanks for your complement , Could you shed light on why it would have resulted in breakeven trade if you have played them?

I have attached the chart with pinbar circled (oops, i missed it to circle when i posted earlier).

Fxbee

 

[superspurs]

keeping my eye on the dow,altho the candle hasnt finished yet,im looking for a pullback to the support line which also is a 38 fib.

 

[trader_dante]

Hi TD,

Thanks for your complement , Could you shed light on why it would have resulted in breakeven trade if you have played them?

I have attached the chart with pinbar circled (oops, i missed it to circle when i posted earlier).

Fxbee

Hi Fxbee,

I would have moved my stop to breakeven after the sharp move upwards. Since it then turned and undid the whole move, I would have then been out.

Your charts show good examples of pin bars THEMSELVES.

However, the supporting factors are not particularly strong.

I am not looking at the daily TF but The S/R pivot on the higher pin is rather weak on this TF.

The lower pin has a stronger S/R pivot but I don't put too much weight on the 23 fib so I would not consider it a good example of confluence.

Tom

 

[lurkerlurker]

Looks like there is an hourly pin forming on the GBPJPY. I'm quite interested in the 224.80 level - there have been quite a few pins off that level last week, and it is at a key S/R pivot. First proper target would be 100 pips south of there. Of course, 26 minutes left in the bar so who knows what could happen, but I'm getting ready with my orders.

I'll edit this post with details of the trade as it progresses, rather than making multiple postings.

 

[superspurs]

if this thread is only about pin bars,forgive me,but it has made me look at charts differently.what i mean is price action.im already long ved,but when i saw that big range bullish bar followed by inside bar,followed by another inside bar and then a breakout to the upside it gives me confidence to hold.this is an hourly chart,but im holding this in a long term portfolio,and not trading short term.any opinions

 

[trader_dante]

if this thread is only about pin bars,forgive me,but it has made me look at charts differently.what i mean is price action.im already long ved,but when i saw that big range bullish bar followed by inside bar,followed by another inside bar and then a breakout to the upside it gives me confidence to hold.this is an hourly chart,but im holding this in a long term portfolio,and not trading short term.any opinions

Hi superspurs,

This thread is certainly not ONLY about pin bars. I particularly like inside bars.

When you get several inside bars with successively smaller ranges the chances of a sharp break greatly increase.

Tom

 

[MitchT]

When you get several inside bars with successively smaller ranges the chances of a sharp break greatly increase.

I've seen this type of formation quite a few times, but I've never been able to work out which direction the sharp break would go in. Sometimes a breakout seems to occur, only for the market to reverse and head the other way just when I thought I'd seen it tell me which way it was going!

 

[firewalker99]

I've seen this type of formation quite a few times, but I've never been able to work out which direction the sharp break would go in. Sometimes a breakout seems to occur, only for the market to reverse and head the other way just when I thought I'd seen it tell me which way it was going!

That's where stops, risk & trade management come into play. You don't want to see the trade move in your direction, then walk away from the screen only to come back and see you're in the red big time.