LUCK in Trading. Does it exist?!

[duderotiy]

How about luck in trading?! I have made over $10K buying oil on 90$ and selling at 100$ - and I knew nothing about trading. This gave me cash (I started with 2k) to go out there and try different strategies on different markets - in a way learning for free .

I dont think luck can do the work for you but I think it can give you the initial boost most newbies desperetly need. There is the story of one of the richest futures traders who was a taxi driver before he become a trader! He made 50-60K from buying and holding wheat futures contracts (started with 3k-4k). He made some mistakes afterwords but the cash he made from his first trade gave him the confidence and money to learn.

TradingSimulator

 

[oildaytrader]

Re: LUCK in Trading. Does it exisit?!

How about luck in trading?! I have made over $10K buying oil on 90$ and selling at 100$ - and I knew nothing about trading. This gave me cash (I started with 2k) to go out there and try different strategies on different markets - in a way learning for free .

I dont think luck can do the work for you but I think it can give you the initial boost most newbies desperetly need. There is the story of one of the richest futures traders who was a taxi driver before he become a trader! He made 50-60K from buying and holding wheat futures contracts (started with 3k-4k). He made some mistakes afterwords but the cash he made from his first trade gave him the confidence and money to learn.

Give that money to charity.

Fool's luck drag most of us into this game,unprepared and most left defeated.Trading is the most difficult thing to be successful at.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/general-trading-chat/77976-im-nearly-90-category.html

 

[Jaydee]

Re: LUCK in Trading. Does it exisit?!

The luck factor exists more over a small sample size of trades and diminishes as the sample size increases.

It is, therefore, very likely that some people starting trading win money without knowing what they are doing over their first 10 trades or so. However, if they continue to trade the same way over 100, 1000, 10000 trades - you will find that it is more likely they will lose money.

There is a lot of luck hanging on any individual trade - it's how you handle it that makes you a trader.

 

[zupcon]

Re: LUCK in Trading. Does it exisit?!

It exists, but I wouldnt recomend it as a long term strategy

 

[everyonerich]

you'll need luck if youre planning to gamble

 

[Splitlink]

Re: LUCK in Trading. Does it exisit?!

The luck factor exists more over a small sample size of trades and diminishes as the sample size increases.

It is, therefore, very likely that some people starting trading win money without knowing what they are doing over their first 10 trades or so. However, if they continue to trade the same way over 100, 1000, 10000 trades - you will find that it is more likely they will lose money.

There is a lot of luck hanging on any individual trade - it's how you handle it that makes you a trader.

you can't rely on luck. It always comes in different forms, good, bad or indifferent. If I had a good trade that I had analysed, afterwards, as lucky it only happened in that instance. To expect it to happen again is gambling. Perhaps, that is the difference.

It`s like crossing Finchley Road with a blindfold on. Get away with it once and you are lucky. Try it, expecting it to happen, and you're a fool.

At the same time, you can make a trade and, by luck, see something that might make you think of a new idea.
That might be repeated but , the next time, it would be a calculated move not based on luck

 

[Splitlink]

That last sentence of mine reminded me of something a close friend told me. He was just turned 21 when he opened his first newscontob. It did very well and, of course, he ran it himself. He had learned that he had to have it on the high street, which is where it was.

When he had enough cash, he opened another one, which really took off and he realised that it was on a bus stop. He ended up with thirteen shops. Some of them were not on the high street, but round the corner or in factory areas but he never started another shop unless it was on a bus stop or tube station. His lucky break was seeing that when he got the second shop.

 

[meanreversion]

There are many more average lucky traders out there than exceptional unlucky traders, luck is not irrelevant, it does play a part although you certainly can't rely on it.

 

[AppleInvestor]

How about luck in trading?! I have made over $10K buying oil on 90$ and selling at 100$ - and I knew nothing about trading. This gave me cash (I started with 2k) to go out there and try different strategies on different markets - in a way learning for free ...

Do you know how many Day Traders made a killing in the 90s? They thought they were geniuses, when in fact they simply followed the crowd and entered the market when any monkey could have made money. Where are they now? Some learned to be risk managers and technicians, others lost their homes, cars, families, and are still sporting blank stares.

Sure there's luck involved, but there's dumb luck in anything you do, but luck has no consistency. The ONLY way to make money trading on a consistent basis is with a solid plan, discipline, skill (which you can develop) and a philosophy that values capital preservation over profit. You pick your spots and milk them.

-ernie
AppleInvestor

 

[kaciara]

luck => you can win
no luck => you can't win

 

[tomorton]

Luck can't be a part of your strategy or position management but your plans should include luck and the right response. At the simplest level - when you open a position, put on a stop-loss so bad luck can't wipe you out: when you set a limit order to take profits, allow for the possibility that through good luck price might run straight through and on another 50%.

 

[AppleInvestor]

Luck can't be a part of your strategy or position management but your plans should include luck and the right response. At the simplest level - when you open a position, put on a stop-loss so bad luck can't wipe you out: when you set a limit order to take profits, allow for the possibility that through good luck price might run straight through and on another 50%.

I object to the use of the word luck. In technical analysis and position sizing there's no concept of "LUCK" rather it's all about managing the risks appropriately. You identify trends and potential reversals of the trend, you then determined, based on past price movements and indicators, where the levels of support and resistance lay. You then determine the risk vs reward if you took a position given these boundaries.

The threshold you use for the risk/reward ratio is determined by your tolerance for risk. In other words you choose to enter positions with greater risk if your tolerance for risk is high, less risky position if your tolerance for risk is lower. These tolerance levels are finite and predetermined, based on your self-assessment and trading plan.

Then you size your position based on your capacity for risk. In other words, the number of shares you plan to commit to a position as a percentage of your total portfolio. The standard for most professional traders is to put no more than 2% of your portfolio at risk in any one trade. Option traders tend to put at risk a slightly higher percentage, usually 5%.

AGAIN, NO SUCH THING AS LUCK IN PROFESSIONAL TRADING, IT'S RISK MANAGEMENT!

-ernie
AppleInvestor

 

[tomorton]

Yes ernie, its money management that keeps you in the game, and by staying in the game you win it. But random events do occur, call it good luck or bad luck, you just have to be prepared to make the most out of what comes your way. Simple example - you buy a share, and a week later the company's a take-over target and the price leaps. You buy another share, and the Finance Director departs suddenly to spend more time with his family and the price tanks. Alright, you can't intentionally buy something for those things to happen, but you can plan how to maximise your advantage or minimise your loss if they do happen. And you should because eventually they will.

 

[Hilarymannah]

If confidence in your abilities is reliant on luck,.I wouldn't say it's a firm base to build a business.
Although, not unlike any placebo,..it has it's advantages e.g,..as you've stated, it's elevated your account rather than diminish it.

 

[bnaimy]

Simple answer is NO.

 

[tradefxlive]

If you have a system which you follow consistently then you find you will probably get more lucky breaks than you think

Bhav

 

[Black Swan]

If you have a system which you follow consistently then you find you will probably get more lucky breaks than you think

Bhav
www.tradefxlive.co.uk

clicks link to find usual pointless 5hitty little uninteresting blog that looks like it's been done by a sixth former using open source, or free Microsoft 'stuff'...A question to you, is it worth it? All that effort of spamming for a morning just to get 5 seconds of no fame?

 

[bhavin]

Re: LUCK in Trading. Does it exisit?!

It exists, but I wouldnt recomend it as a long term strategy

definitely Luck is important > added with the strategy and offcource the mental fitness.

Just today > had a great position, #50 per point short >it got @EXACTLY@ to my stop
and then went down...................

was that not my bad luck?

 

[tradefxlive]

Re: LUCK in Trading. Does it exisit?!

definitely Luck is important > added with the strategy and offcource the mental fitness.

Just today > had a great position, #50 per point short >it got @EXACTLY@ to my stop
and then went down...................

was that not my bad luck?

I feel for you - this always seems to happen does it.