Long USD/CHF?<-- I state my case inside.

[petedeluiz]

The old say: "It's bear market"

 

[DashRiprock]

...

At any rate, I remember I still owe you a trade thread. It's coming.

u dont owe nebody nuffink martinghoul, i think u r a cool guy for posting here

im watchin UFC on channel 5, the man in blue pants is well ard!

 

[scose-no-doubt]

I gave up on models after a tried to build a sort of "shake out" model that was supposed to identify risk tolerance levels using sentiment releases and VaR. I explained it to gammajammer and he said I'd basically just made a bolly band lol.

As far as analysis goes, I prefer to look at it in terms of quantitative and qualitative rather than technical and fundamental. Probably because I learned the T&F definitions from this site and I just don't agree with them. There's a lot of overlap IMO and I don't think drawing a line on a chart qualifies as TA either.

 

[Martinghoul]

u dont owe nebody nuffink martinghoul, i think u r a cool guy for posting here

im watchin UFC on channel 5, the man in blue pants is well ard!

It's good to have the old Dash back. I got really concerned when you got all serious.

 

[Martinghoul]

I gave up on models after a tried to build a sort of "shake out" model that was supposed to identify risk tolerance levels using sentiment releases and VaR. I explained it to gammajammer and he said I'd basically just made a bolly band lol.

Well, you can't give up after just one. These things can be done til' the cows come home.

 

[DashRiprock]

It's good to have the old Dash back. I got really concerned when you got all serious.

well oviously this is a serious forum with serious talking about trading

well my look on it is im never gonna be competitive at the serious stuff so i am not serious and v good at it

man in blue pants won the fight. PWNED the other man. my next post will be my 2000ths!!!!!

 

[scose-no-doubt]

Well, you can't give up after just one. These things can be done til' the cows come home.

Need to get more quantified and the ingrain it all first. I only have limited capacity in my head so the stuff I do outside of work usually has quite a short shelf life.

 

[afarghaly9]

Ah, you see, Dash, you have actually stated a deeply-held belief of mine. Specifically, that there is no qualitative difference between technical and fundamental analysis. The difference is in the degree of robustness and the quality of reasoning. I never use technical analysis because I can't explain how it works and the assumptions behind it, which means it's a black box to me. An analysis such as I have described above, on the other hand, is something that's based a) simple mathematics; and, b) common sense; which means I can understand it very well. Let me offer an example. If my "technical" system is giving me a bad signal, I have no way of detecting it. In contrast, if my regression model is telling me that weights for some of the independent variables are counterintuitive, I know that there could be an issue with variable choices. That's sorta how I think about it.

At any rate, I remember I still owe you a trade thread. It's coming.

Well contrary to most you were actually bearish on the CHF right when your suppose to be. Fudamentals usually agree with the trend after the trend has started because i believe all that data is a result of market action rather than the contrary. If you study the Elliott wave you will be where you need to be in the right time (and it is based on psychology rather than self fulfilling). Now your methods of analysis obviously compliments the elliott wave as we both share the same bias, hence combining both approaches will prove worth while. The elliott wave will keep you aware of the position of the 'lag' from fair valuations according to your models

 

[afarghaly9]

What supports the Idea that this advance from 1970 in the swiss franc is corrective is the pattern than unfolding from 1970-1980 on the usdx and the EUR/CHF triangle formation:

which followed the initial advance (decline in terms of EUR/CHF) of the swiss franc. Wave 2 cant be a triangle ;-) and what supports a major low is triangles signal the final move of that degree hence the upcoming move if proven corrective will correct the entire move from the 70s

Credit for the EUR/CHF chart is due to Elliott Wave International. http://elliottwave.com

 

[afarghaly9]

Analysis proven accurate!.. Record daily advances in this currency pair was set in augest... Still holding!