Long Term Trade - rising US Interest rates

[spy74]

I hear you Amit. We all have opinions on where markets will go. I just happen to think interest rates will be at 5% in 5 years. I do not think that the US will follow Japan. I've lived in both the US & Japan and Japan has a lot of cultural baggage that holds it back economically. The US does not have this and therefore is much more flexible.

I'm going to stick by my guns on that part as I only trade off my own opinions and not other people's. If a trade fails, it's my fault. If it works out, it's my fault.

RIght now, I'm not even sure if there is a way to trade it !

if this is your view, then perhaps the best way to play it is thru a longer dated OTM USD-JPY option instead of the US rates market

 

[scose-no-doubt]

Go to the bookies. I'm sure they offer <40:1 odds on any bet. Some guy did a bet years ago that lewis hamilton would win an f1 by time he was 22 or something if you can believe what you read in the papers.

 

[meanreversion]

The Hamilton story is true, but as I recall they got fairly short odds, maybe 50:1 or less, the reason being that he was wildly successful in karting when 7-8 years old so anyone in the know realised he had potential in spades.

 

[gooseman]

Normally the actual duration of their liabilities is arnd 3 - 5yrs, so they used to show up in the short sterling mkt periodically in the past.

.

banks duration?

 

[Martinghoul]

banks duration?

Duration of the builders' mtge books, I mean...