Long term dow prospects....

[dsmodi]

ummmm ... does ANYONE at all have any thougts on the long term dow that they would like to post.

I beleive a similar discussion to the one above has been taking place on another board with stevet as well. Perhaps that would be the place to continue....

 

[stevet]

options

there is some really good stuff in those articles - not everthing is there by a long way, but there is an awful lot of what is used to trade markets and fibonnacis are key to succesful trading

i think people are just lured to spreadbetting because of its marketing, low cost entry and the tax implications - but certainly spreadbetting fulfills the saying of there being no free lunch - but they are right about not paying tax - you will lose money with them - so you will not have to pay tax!

All the key decisions for trading eminis must primarilly come from the main contract, but this must also be done in conjunction with the cash, and the emini price - not so much the emini chart - but the emini price in relation to the main contract, so that you are buying at the right price and the noise of the emini does not allow you to enter at the wrong point for the risk reward

This does not apply to illiquid contracts such as the FTSE mini, since it is not tradeable. It really only applies to the emini S&P and Nasdaq - which are primary contracts to trade

If you only feel comfortable trading one contract - you should stick with one until something makes you up your size - its harder to increase at the begining since one to two is double size, whereas 4 to 5 is a small jump - this might seem elementary to anyone who has not really traded - but anyone who has will know what i mean

Increasing contracts is a real skill and means you have to start relearning all over again - since the phsycological stuff you overcame to be successful with one contract - all comes back into play as you increase size

I dont understand why everyone on here talks about SBs "biasing" the spread - i suspect people are just comparing the SB price to the cash price, wheras it needs to be compared to the futures price - on the whole their pricing follows the futures price - tick for tick - it only goes out of whack when the futures and cash go out of whack, and when there is an aberation between the dow and the s&p, because the SBs use an algorithym which uses multiple inputs to get their pricing, in an attempt to use leading indicators - and its this algorithym which offers the opportunity in SB priciing for a knowledgable trader - but the SBs are protected from a trader taking advantage since the SB systems are so slow and unreliable for any trader seeking to take advantage of SB pricing inefficiencies

No one can be succesful without getting a years futures trading under their belt, but once at that point - the only way is up!

 

[stevet]

dsmodi

anyone who bases their trading on a long term view is gambling and/or on an ego trip - except if the markets are at a possible key turning point - which only happens in a time frame you have to measure in years

i know a trader who picked the top of the nasdaq to bet very heavily on a short position and he is still holding this position now - but he knows what he is doing and is real experienced and had developed a trading style which allowed him to take advantage of this opportunity - but those kind of opportunities happen only a few times in a lifetime and only work for a few people

 

[dsmodi]

stevet

In that case shall we make each and every board on here and everywhere on the www "The stevet method of trading" or shall we replace the word "trading" with "stevet". It seems you feel yours is the only method of trading, and therefore if anyone else does trade, then they have no right to unless they do it your way!

In the last 10 days or so, I've read many of your posts on t2w and every one of them stinks of arrogance. You want to denounce everything everyone else is saying, although everyone else makes an effort to be polite when replying to you.

Where, and I repeat WHERE, in anything I have written, or anyone else has written, do you get the impression that I or others want to trade the Dow using long term views? Do you have an answer (even if its an arrogant one (v.likely)) to that?

Can I and others not have an interest in looking at where the DOW may be going in the long term, especially as the Dow has a phenomenal impression on the major indices the world over. There have been people who have said they can see the Dow goin to 7000'ish. That is of interest to me. And these are points I would like to make and share with others as well as their own viewpoints. Why should you have a problem with that.

As a suggestion, it would probably be a good idea to go through all your own post, compare them to the tone of replies you have received and try to come to a sensible conclusion.

It wouldn't surprise me if there were many schmuks out there that agree with me. I will consider it a step in the right direction if you did as well.

 

[stevet]

dsmodi

i am just giving my view in a direct and honest way

i dont want you to like my view and or agree with me - it is absolutley just my view - and at the minimum - you might agree i am unambiguous at putting my view across

and its unfortunate that i am the only one to have replied to your comment as of yet - which i guess makes my view stand out

my view is that guessing and pontificating where markets are going to be is fine but has no value toward making money from the markets - which rightly or wrongly is my only interest in the markets

this site is called trade2win and i do feel very strongly that people waste a lot of time theorising about trading and not getting on with it - and my comments are strictly directed to anyone who is keen to become a succesful aggresive trader and might be pushed over the edge into the chasm of really trading by what i say - so if you and others find my remarks offensive - just ignore them - even if the heading of my comments is directed to you - i assume everyone reads the posts so i am not making the comments for you - its for everyone on the board - and those who might want a different view point about trading to the normal stuff that might be on this or other forums!

but, ironically the only point of my comments is if they are being of value to anyone, and frankly your response has pretty much made me feel i am wasting my time

 

[neil]

Stevet

Keep posting since your views are as valid as anyone else's.

If what you say upsets people, well, that's the nature of debate.

The overiding principle is that debate is constructive, adult in tempo, and furthers the purpose of this board - helping traders to be profitable.

So you are not wasting your time.

Intelligent debate is never a waste of time.

 

[dsmodi]

stevet

I do agree with you in that, at the minimum, your comments are unambiguous. What I don't agree with is that they are TOO unambiguous. And I think you would do well to take on board this and points from above. But then that's my view. You may not like it and I'm trying to be unambigouos.

I MAY, and MAY only think it unfortunate that nobody has replied to my comments a few days after they've been posted, not a few hours after, as not everybody has as much time to write posts like yourself. The length of all your posts makes it blatantly obvious how much time you do have. And its only after trapsing through many of your posts and in reply to what you wrote to me that I put in the effort to write to you. For your information, I know for fact that others have read and agreed with the comments I've made.

The way you write, I cannot be wrong in assuming you must currently have done well from your trading. But to get to that position surely you must have yourself gone through many theories and trading strategies. Thats what folk here are doing, regardless of what the name of the site may be. I for one appreciate this site and am sure there are many out there that do, quite probably yourself included.

I am willing to accept that you may have something to offer the trading community. If so, then you can create an appropriate board directed towards your methodology of trading. And that way you can do it without knocking others. You see, there are ways of being unambiguous in a different manner. Different views on trading usually interest most traders (as long as they aren't so arrogant to think there method is the holy grail of trading). But delivery of those views is all important.

I hope this post and my previous post have made my points clear to you and I haven't wasted my time. But if you feel you are wasting your time, then I'm sure you are welcome to waste your time elsewhere. I don't think I have much more to say on this matter and it is highly unlikely I will have any more to say to add to this. However, if anyone has any comments on the long tderm dow, then I'm sure me and others would certainly be interested.

 

[stevet]

dsmodi

ok, i think quick and i type quick and i trade from 8 in the morning till at least 9 at night and longer if i am hitting asian markets - so do have a bunch of computer time

not too sure what your exact point is

but you sound exactly the kind of arrogant person you accuse me of being

 

[dsmodi]

Neil

For some reason, altho' u posted before my last post, I've only just seen your post.

I have absolutely no problem with Stevet's posting. If you go through the above then you may agree. But in order for the debate to be adult, and bearing in mind the "mild-mannered tempo" of this site, I feel anyon posting should be unambiguous in a better way. I agree intelligent debate is never a waste of time and have never alluded that it is, but if its gotta be intelligent, then it can most definately be done with respect (and not necessarily in agreement with) of others views. If Stevet feels I thought he shouldn't post then that is a misunderstanding. If you also feel thats what I've written, then I should certainly try to be less ambiguous.

Ofcourse, you may agree, all your comments also appy to my postings?

 

[dsmodi]

lol

I'm not being arrogant, but you would looking through spectacles of your own colour.

Umm, but if you think I'm being arrogant, then how do you like it? You don't? Then do you understand the point I'm making about arrogance? You last post only further confirmed your arrogance, no doubt your next post will further confirm the same.

 

[neil]

keep on track

Lets keep things civil.

If someone has something useful to contribute on trading or any of its' facets then he or she should feel free to post.

Should someone's premise upset another, then the intelligent thing to do is to try and refute such premise by a factual rebuttal, not school yard bluster.

 

[stevet]

dsmodi

i still dont get your point, and you still sound real arrogant - and i could care less if you do or dont

i was just surprised at why you would respond to my original comment by basically telling me not to respond as opposed to offering a view on my propostion

 

[dsmodi]

lol!
in fact double lol!

Neil
I did refute with a factual rebutal - I pointed him in the direction of his previous posts....

Stevet
I agree, I also don't care whether you think I'm being arrogant or not. So we agree on that!.
I'm just wondering whether you'd admit to getting point if u did, or whether you'd feel better placed to deny everything.....
lol m8 - I'm actrually surprised by Neils entry into the fray telling us to be intelligent - ummm so wots he doing.

 

[neil]

Wots he doing

Hoping to get more viewpoints on trading and less playground brawling.

 

[stevet]

dsmodi

i dont get your point and i would admit it if i did

 

[ChartMan]

OK I think this thread is getting no where. Each to thier own, and at this point I think I have to step in as IMPARTIAL Moderator and ask that the thread be closed, as it was originally titled "longer term dow". If you wish to continue this debate, can I ask that you start a new thread titled "Alternate trading styles"....
Any further posts on this thread will be deleted.....