Best Thread Live Cable Trading

[trendie]

I was a bit disappointed with the unconfident break above 1.7460.
Thought it was going to start going up.
Was waiting for a decent retracement to enter, but didnt get one.
Seems to have lost its desire to go up.
Are you going to open a position and carry it over the weekend ?

 

[c6ackp]

I think this thread would be a lot more interesting if people gave some kind of rationale behind their trades, rather than "try this one...", "how about this..." - at least a one-liner describing why you took the trade and on what timeframe...

Take Pipsqueeks short at 401... 35 is a very wide stop for intraday, so I assume this was a 4 hour chart trade? It's tough to take an intraday short into oversold 15s, so I didn't take this trade myself. I was waiting for the 1st higher-low long which materialised at 392. It turned out that 409 was the correct level for the short (break of mini higher low + 15 bar break).

How about more discussion instead of obsession with live calls?

Steve

 

[trendie]

excellent point, c6ackp.
I did try to get posters to do this early on in the thread. ( obviously didnt work )

Personally, I try to give some logic to how I lose money to the markets.
( currently dabbling with MAs and Stochs, although some patterns are fun )

would screen-shots be useful every so often do you think ?

 

[JonnyT]

With the US being on a National Holiday today, are we in for a quiet afternoon?

JonnyT

 

[wole]

HI all new to thread, I dont usualy use patterns often. but 30 min chart showing head and shoulders pattern, neckline just broke target at @ 17325 - (Nov 8th low) S/loss @ 17420

I would have attached a chart if I new how to

 

[fseitun]

I think this thread would be a lot more interesting if people gave some kind of rationale behind their trades, rather than "try this one...", "how about this..." - at least a one-liner describing why you took the trade and on what timeframe...

Take Pipsqueeks short at 401... 35 is a very wide stop for intraday, so I assume this was a 4 hour chart trade? It's tough to take an intraday short into oversold 15s, so I didn't take this trade myself. I was waiting for the 1st higher-low long which materialised at 392. It turned out that 409 was the correct level for the short (break of mini higher low + 15 bar break).

How about more discussion instead of obsession with live calls?

Steve

I agree with you, you definetely make a good point.

At this very moment I am out of the market on every currency pair I trade. God bless!

It's been a really rough week for me as my indicator was utterly UNSYNCHRONIZED with the market.

Yesterday I was long on the cable and got really optimistic after the bad news on US trade deficit came out. My optimism only lasted 1 minute before the dollar came back strong and faded the bearish move.

This morning I was stopped out at the 1.7390 level.

My stance on the cable remains BULLISH. The dollar has been overbought and I definetely expect it to fall 100-200 pips early next week. This is from a daily point of view.

From a weekly point of view, I still have a bullish signal on the dollar.

As I consider my weekly signal much stronger than my daily signal, I expect the dollar to retrace 100-200 pips and then resume its fall. I know it makes little sense economically speaking as the all-time high US trade deficit would want the dollar to weaken to shore up exports; however, I stick to my system, to my rules and to my charts. And my charts are indicating a bearish outlook for the cable in the next few weeks at least.

It's funny because I just started trading FOREX 3 weeks ago and I am already down 12.5 %. I lost 8 trades out of 10, my winning % is a mere 20%. Thank God I have a good management in place.

IS THERE ANY SWING-POSITION TRADER OUT THERE WHO CAN SHARE HIS EXPERIENCE OVER THE LAST 3 WEEKS?

I talked to a couple of experience traders yesterday and they also have been struggling recently.

 

[samtron]

I think this thread would be a lot more interesting if people gave some kind of rationale behind their trades, rather than "try this one...", "how about this..." - at least a one-liner describing why you took the trade and on what timeframe...

Take Pipsqueeks short at 401... 35 is a very wide stop for intraday, so I assume this was a 4 hour chart trade? It's tough to take an intraday short into oversold 15s, so I didn't take this trade myself. I was waiting for the 1st higher-low long which materialised at 392. It turned out that 409 was the correct level for the short (break of mini higher low + 15 bar break).

How about more discussion instead of obsession with live calls?

Steve

Yes i would definitely agree, after all whats a call without the rationale, surely its just a vain attempt to bolster one ego,
ok you don't always get time, but you could post the call then do a subsequent post describing the rationale
ALL IN FAVOUR SAY I

 

[trendie]

Yes i would definitely agree, after all whats a call without the rationale, surely its just a vain attempt to bolster one ego,
ok you don't always get time, but you could post the call then do a subsequent post describing the rationale
ALL IN FAVOUR SAY I

Eye, Aye, cap'n.

 

[Baruch]

Is anyone trading cable today...
I am planning open a long position from this 1.7360 region with a stop of about 70 pips a long term trade for the next week...any views

A stop of 70 pips..?! Why risk so much?

 

[PipSqueek]

short 7401 looking for 7275. stop and reverse at around 7435 (though that might change)

explanation:

half based on instinct and half based on t/a.

as mentioned above a h/s pattern was formed, neckline broke, also broke a trend line that started on morning of 8th nov. i use a longer time frame, and then scale it in to find an entry/exit.

also there seems to be no appetite for GBP at the moment, it can't seem to go up (don't want to get to technical) but euro is making its way down to 1.15 imo, GBP will follow it down. take yesterdays data, it was very bearish for dollars imo, and still it managed to do nothing, the market just seems hell bent on being long dollar. don't fight the market, follow it. now i've said that watch my trade go tits up :cheesy:

by the way i'm not trying to bolster my ego, but it is difficult to explain why a trade is taken (for me anyway) as a lot of the time its just instinct/experience.

 

[darktone]

Is anyone trading cable today...
I am planning open a long position from this 1.7360 region with a stop of about 70 pips a long term trade for the next week...any views

Hi rav.. if i were you... i wouldnt..

You probably know that im looking for support here also.. the price action this week has been choppy go nowhere. like trendy i was disappointed through 460.
imho...To be buying at limit now is to be "picking" a bottom with not much to suggest that one has/is being made, ive only lost money trying to do that.. also we have the weekend just around the corner, if you do get filled you wont have much of a cushion.. (unless this isnt an issue re fxcm etc)

Personally, im looking for a break up out of the weekly bar (detailed) before id actively look for longs given the anaemic price action this week..

but dont listen to me!!! cos when it makes its low 59 and zooms off 9500 youl be cussin!!!

gl

 

[PipSqueek]

I agree with you, you definetely make a good point.

At this very moment I am out of the market on every currency pair I trade. God bless!

It's been a really rough week for me as my indicator was utterly UNSYNCHRONIZED with the market.

Yesterday I was long on the cable and got really optimistic after the bad news on US trade deficit came out. My optimism only lasted 1 minute before the dollar came back strong and faded the bearish move.

This morning I was stopped out at the 1.7390 level.

My stance on the cable remains BULLISH. The dollar has been overbought and I definetely expect it to fall 100-200 pips early next week. This is from a daily point of view.

From a weekly point of view, I still have a bullish signal on the dollar.

As I consider my weekly signal much stronger than my daily signal, I expect the dollar to retrace 100-200 pips and then resume its fall. I know it makes little sense economically speaking as the all-time high US trade deficit would want the dollar to weaken to shore up exports; however, I stick to my system, to my rules and to my charts. And my charts are indicating a bearish outlook for the cable in the next few weeks at least.

It's funny because I just started trading FOREX 3 weeks ago and I am already down 12.5 %. I lost 8 trades out of 10, my winning % is a mere 20%. Thank God I have a good management in place.

IS THERE ANY SWING-POSITION TRADER OUT THERE WHO CAN SHARE HIS EXPERIENCE OVER THE LAST 3 WEEKS?

I talked to a couple of experience traders yesterday and they also have been struggling recently.

all i can add to this is that after a biggish move, like we've had, and especially after key technical levels have been broken in various currency pairs, there will be a lot of 'churning' and choppiness, while the market decides on its next move. if you are a swing trader, i would either sit tight, or scale in your time frame, and if you can scalp, scalp the crap out of it.

imo we building up for a pretty big move in one direction or another.

 

[darktone]

imo we building up for a pretty big move in one direction or another.

I agree. if your in it for a trend... at the moment... there aint one! (or at least were at a key point in the market!)

Patience is a virtue...so they say!

 

[samtron]

by the way i'm not trying to bolster my ego, but it is difficult to explain why a trade is taken (for me anyway) as a lot of the time its just instinct/experience.

fair point pip,
on reflection I would say I was being harsh (maybe I was just trying to bolster my ego ), sorry no offence meant to anyone.

 

[PipSqueek]

fair point pip,
on reflection I would say I was being harsh (maybe I was just trying to bolster my ego ), sorry no offence meant to anyone.

no offence taken mate, i'm above all that :cheesy: :cheesy:

 

[Mornington Crescent]

fseitun

what's the problem with the last 3 weeks ?

I trade trends and cant think of any special problems

 

[fseitun]

all i can add to this is that after a biggish move, like we've had, and especially after key technical levels have been broken in various currency pairs, there will be a lot of 'churning' and choppiness, while the market decides on its next move. if you are a swing trader, i would either sit tight, or scale in your time frame, and if you can scalp, scalp the crap out of it.

imo we building up for a pretty big move in one direction or another.

Yeah, i am expecting some choppy market as well before a big move is made either up or down.

I wouldnt be surprised to see the dollar getting stronger though. These markets are unpredictable. We are all playing a game of probabilities but we traders are ALL LOSERS UNTIL THE MARKET PROVES US CORRECT.
This is a great principle I am holding dear. Please do not take it the negative way. All I am trying to say is that nobody can predict the market. We can risk some money to anticipate favorable market moves, sometimes we win sometimes we lose. In the end, it's only the market that will tell whether we are right or wrong.

Since I am facing a 12.50% drawdown right now, I would like to ask you guys what is the maximum drawdown you are willing to accept. Have you ever had a bigger drawdown than expected? If yes, how did you react to it and what measures did you adopt?

According to my backtesting the biggest drawdown I could possibly expect was 18%. Right now I am at 12.50%, thus a couple of bad trades away from it.

I set an EMERGENCY RULE that is triggered as soon as my drawdown reaches the 20% level, which implies a reduction of my trade unit or risk per trade. I am currently risking 3% of capital per each trade, i.e. I lose 3% if my hard stop is hit.

All the 8 losers I have had in my first 10 trades were HARD STOPS. I honestly cant remember backtesting anything similar. Sometimes my system would happen to lose a bunch of trades in a row, but half of the losers would be half the hard-stop or even less. Small losers. In the first 3 weeks of my trading activity I have had 8 BAD LOSERS.

Since trading is mostly psychological, I am focusing on the positive things. One of them is that I am only down by 12.50% over this bad span, which highlights my good money management.

I am also very happy about the way I reacted to all these losers. I stood strong and cool about it, doing the same thing as if I were winning big. I didnt break a single rule of my trading book.

If my system is a successful one, it must go thru turbolence and still be strong. If I am to be a trader for a long time, I'll have to go thru periods like this many times; I find it purely coincidental that I have been facing such a bad period since the day I started off. I wish it would have happened at a later stage when I am already on the winning side, but the market gods decided otherwise and I have to live with it.

I am sure the day I get out of this small hole I'll be stronger than ever.

 

[coolTrader]

HI all new to thread, I dont usualy use patterns often. but 30 min chart showing head and shoulders pattern, neckline just broke target at @ 17325 - (Nov 8th low) S/loss @ 17420

I would have attached a chart if I new how to

spot on I am already in a nail biting long. :cheesy: there was no follow through to the upside neither to the down side. Cable can break without warning though so one needs to beware of pattern failure.

 

[PipSqueek]

Yeah, i am expecting some choppy market as well before a big move is made either up or down.

I wouldnt be surprised to see the dollar getting stronger though. These markets are unpredictable. We are all playing a game of probabilities but we traders are ALL LOSERS UNTIL THE MARKET PROVES US CORRECT.
This is a great principle I am holding dear. Please do not take it the negative way. All I am trying to say is that nobody can predict the market. We can risk some money to anticipate favorable market moves, sometimes we win sometimes we lose. In the end, it's only the market that will tell whether we are right or wrong.

Since I am facing a 12.50% drawdown right now, I would like to ask you guys what is the maximum drawdown you are willing to accept. Have you ever had a bigger drawdown than expected? If yes, how did you react to it and what measures did you adopt?

According to my backtesting the biggest drawdown I could possibly expect was 18%. Right now I am at 12.50%, thus a couple of bad trades away from it.

I set an EMERGENCY RULE that is triggered as soon as my drawdown reaches the 20% level, which implies a reduction of my trade unit or risk per trade. I am currently risking 3% of capital per each trade, i.e. I lose 3% if my hard stop is hit.

All the 8 losers I have had in my first 10 trades were HARD STOPS. I honestly cant remember backtesting anything similar. Sometimes my system would happen to lose a bunch of trades in a row, but half of the losers would be half the hard-stop or even less. Small losers. In the first 3 weeks of my trading activity I have had 8 BAD LOSERS.

Since trading is mostly psychological, I am focusing on the positive things. One of them is that I am only down by 12.50% over this bad span, which highlights my good money management.

I am also very happy about the way I reacted to all these losers. I stood strong and cool about it, doing the same thing as if I were winning big. I didnt break a single rule of my trading book.

If my system is a successful one, it must go thru turbolence and still be strong. If I am to be a trader for a long time, I'll have to go thru periods like this many times; I find it purely coincidental that I have been facing such a bad period since the day I started off. I wish it would have happened at a later stage when I am already on the winning side, but the market gods decided otherwise and I have to live with it.

I am sure the day I get out of this small hole I'll be stronger than ever.

i couldn't agree more with you mate. there are a lot who would say, stop what your doing, review your system...blah blah blah, if you have an edge, and have confidence in it, then stick with it. the market has a good way of shaking out week hands, just stay true to your system/edge. sure make tweeks to it if necessary but don't go switching from one method to another.

as for predicting the market, we can't predict it, but we can try to get on the right side of it, using probability/stats/experience.

 

[coolTrader]

It will be nice if we just kept it short and sweet. eg I am going long. ema cross...what ever indicator pattern. No long story as I personally will just like to get to the point in an UN convoluted manner. :|