Best Thread Live Cable Trading

[Ripcord]

All fundamental news are important. It's the fundamentals which rule the markets... :cheesy:

We get secondary numbers virtually every other day and PPI clearly falls into that catagory, yes it can have a minor effect on the market but nothing in the order of magnitude to provide a daily direction, particulary the day after NFP. Yes there can always be an exception but if you waited until all news was always out you would never trade.

It also begs the question that if you do not trade until these numbers are out then what are you doing staring at a screen up to two hours before they arrive. Go and treat yourself to some breakfast!

 

[jezza888]

It is the fundamentals which really move this market but this doesn't mean it doesn't move in the meantime and there is always money to be made regardless. I personally work the news releases into my methodology and know that the big news releases will just mean more pips that day!

 

[Uphios]

US fighting back well. Must admit I don't really see why. NFP was a little better than expected but still only average and I think that average is insufficent to keep up with population increase in the US. This seems to be borne out by a small increase in the unemployment rate. US balance of payments and budgets don't bare talking about (not that the UK is that great). I think on the whole the driving force behind the dollar is the expectation of a rate increase at the end of the month and a little extra excitement with the runour that it may be 0.5% this time.

 

[Baruch]

Generally speaking I agree with you Baruch. However there are so many chart players in this game that on a day to day basis I think it is dangerous to ignore them.

Yes, I agree. That's why I try to combine fundamentals and charts.

 

[Uphios]

Back long 7240, out if we go 7225

 

[Baruch]

US fighting back well. Must admit I don't really see why. NFP was a little better than expected but still only average and I think that average is insufficent to keep up with population increase in the US. This seems to be borne out by a small increase in the unemployment rate. US balance of payments and budgets don't bare talking about (not that the UK is that great). I think on the whole the driving force behind the dollar is the expectation of a rate increase at the end of the month and a little extra excitement with the runour that it may be 0.5% this time.

Yes, the rate situation is very important. We will get more FED and ECB and even BOJ rate hikes, but no more from BOE. That's why cable must to go down. Can the chart tell you that? No. But it can confirm this analysis... :cheesy:

 

[eatontrade]

From Thomson.....
Cable is trading soft into the new week but is holding just off Friday"s
1.7230 low. Strong US employment numbers, UK policy on hold and a fresh play
into the EUR has left sterling feeling the heat. Asia traded cable sideways to
higher and gave Europe a better selling level at 1.7297. Offers crept into the
market and good-sized selling out of London, including rumoured clearer
interest, has knocked the pound back to 1.7237-40.
UK producer prices for February provide the early focus with expectations of a
slight pick up in both output and input prices. Retail sales and unemployment
numbers will carry more weight when released later in the week.
GBP/USD has a 1.7200 look about it and possibly a return to the late December
lows around 1.7130 this week. Stops are reportedly way off the pace above 1.7400
and bids are rumoured to be light on the approach to 1.7200.

 

[Uphios]

More likelyhood of a decrease from BoE. However, I remain a little bemused that the Euro is relatively strong with an interest rate of 2.5% and the possibility of an increase, against sterling that already pays 4.5%. It seems the prospect of a rate increase does more for your currency than actually doing it!

 

[Baruch]

More likelyhood of a decrease from BoE. However, I remain a little bemused that the Euro is relatively strong with an interest rate of 2.5% and the possibility of an increase, against sterling that already pays 4.5%. It seems the prospect of a rate increase does more for your currency than actually doing it!

Yes, because the facts has already been discounted. We trade on expectations. But there sees to come better eco data out of Euroland, about more growth and jobs, while UK seems to slow down. That's why eur/gbp moves north.

 

[Baruch]

Yes but it is not considered a significant number in terms of market movement, by anyone!

The data was mixed, so it made not much action. But if it had told the story of inflation coming back, you would had seen a huge move north.

 

[Uphios]

I probably need to get my head straight on the 'already discounted' point of view. I have heard it many many times, especially from serious pro players. However, I can not make that statement square with the action when news comes out, often exactly as expected and the market goes wild. Perhaps I am being synical but I don't really believe it's ever 'already discounted'.

 

[eatontrade]

LSE outcome could have an effect. Talk of counterbid now hence LSE needs to buy 4bln USD as opposed t o NASDAQ needing 2.4bln GBP, 8bln USD swing in potential flow

 

[Uphios]

Out of cable long at 7253 being 5 below the best price I saw. I notice I am winning on the long side on lower and lower peaks. Usually on days this happens I notice by the end of the day I would have had a far more comfortable ride being short in the first place!

 

[Uphios]

I will chance another long in the 7230 area but am now favouring shorting a peak if it can get back to the 7280-90 area.

 

[Baruch]

I will chance another long in the 7230 area but am now favouring shorting a peak if it can get back to the 7280-90 area.

What's your spread?

 

[Uphios]

Spread - 3 pips. Which is OK for quick in and outs. I like to play GBPCAD but the 10 point spread prohibits trading on these tight range days.

 

[Baruch]

Spread - 3 pips. Which is OK for quick in and outs. I like to play GBPCAD but the 10 point spread prohibits trading on these tight range days.

Yes, 3 pips OK. I have 3,5 pips with Saxo. But I heard that IB has only 1,5 pips on cable. That must be very nice for scalpers. And if you could trade with the banks, the spread would be 0,0 or 0,5.

 

[eatontrade]

Yes, 3 pips OK. I have 3,5 pips with Saxo. But I heard that IB has only 1,5 pips on cable. That must be very nice for scalpers. And if you could trade with the banks, the spread would be 0,0 or 0,5.

You could try trading the CME currency future, normally 1 pip spread

 

[Uphios]

I used to worry about the spread but much less so now. It's a problem when it gets to 10 pips as in the GBPCAD or even 20 for CMC's NIkkei but I decided it is far more importent to a) money manage and b) pick a winner. As long as the spread is tight enough to let me get out when I feel I am on a wrong one then that's OK.

 

[Uphios]

Well this has all gone rather dull. 2 hours without a position. I am of out to enjoy the sunshine and a little light gardening for an hour or two. Good luck.