Best Thread Live Cable Trading

[dc2000]

Kaffee
actually I am, I may not be trading it but I am keeping a close eye on it so your posting of the entries and results are most welcome

 

[superspurs]

Kaffee
actually I am, I may not be trading it but I am keeping a close eye on it so your posting of the entries and results are most welcome

i support that as well keep up the good work fella

 

[Cableguy]

Short 7838, s/l: 7855, target 7797, 0.1 lots

 

[Baruch]

For anyone's that's bothered:-

My entries for today:

EUR/USD:
Buystop at 1.2274, SL = 1.2232, PT = 1.2354
Sellstop at 1.2232, SL = 1.2274, PT = 1.2152

GBP/USD:
Buystop at 1.7888, SL = 1.7830, PT = 1.8008
Sellstop at 1.7830, SL = 1.7888, PT = 1.7710

Hans

So Hans must be short now in both pairs.

 

[Altern8]

So Hans must be short now in both pairs.

Yep,

Short triggered at 1.7830 for GBP/USD.
Short triggered at 1.2232 for EUR/USD.

 

[Cableguy]

We have support from yesterday @ 7814 and my L3 is @ 7815. Interesting to see if we break support - doubt I'll reach my target, prob look for a contra-trade.

CG

 

[Kaffee]

So Hans must be short now in both pairs.

Aye.

 

[Cableguy]

Short 7838, s/l: 7855, target 7797, 0.1 lots

Stopped out it's too volatile for me, im standing aside.

 

[FetteredChinos]

cheeky little spike there..

still short, but its up and down like a tart's drawers..

 

[Cableguy]

cheeky little spike there..

still short, but its up and down like a tart's drawers..

Teehee

 

[Cableguy]

Short 7866, s/l: 7883, target 7823, 0.1 lots

Oh well, it's only 0.1 lots

 

[Baruch]

Yep,

Short triggered at 1.7830 for GBP/USD.
Short triggered at 1.2232 for EUR/USD.

You need big pockets to trade this system - I prefer Big Ben. :cheesy:

 

[Kaffee]

You need big pockets to trade this system - I prefer Big Ben. :cheesy:

Don't say I never give you anything....

Originally Posted by hans123
I already have discussed it earlier in this thread. I will give it a try from a different view.

First, you maximum risk (loss) per day is 480 pips or $4,800 (4 times 50 and 4 times 70). That's 9.6% with a $50,000 account. That's a lot of risk. Mostly for good money management you will get the advice not to risk 2% per trade. The maximum risk per trade is 70 pips (1.4%), so less than 2%. I prefer to calculate my daily risk and 9.6% is high. The last 60 trading days my biggest loss was 253 pips (5.06%). My second biggest loss was 234 pips (4.68%) and my third biggest loss was 186 pips (3.72%). More than 5% loss per day is still a lot of money, but I am willing to take that risk. My W/L ratio is 1.74 so far, that's one of the reasons.

Second, I have to look to the drawdowns. My biggest drawdown was 449 pips (8.98%). Suppose the worst is yet to come and it will be twice the drawdown I already have experienced, I have to overcome a drawdown of 900 pips (18%). I think the system can overcome such kind of drawdowns.

Last, the Kelly value is 0.1969. This means you can put almost 20% of your capital in a single trade.

From all of the reasons above I conclude you need about $50,000 to trade this system comfortable and from a realistic point of view.

Hans

 

[Baruch]

Kaffee,

Thank you. Too risky for me.

 

[tradesmart]

Could be a nice setup for cable shorts with a little H&S in there and a gap fill target….?!

I’ll be watching to see how the dollar reacts to the Durable goods data at 13.30gmt to get the answer….

 

[TheBramble]

Originally Posted by hans123
I already have discussed it earlier in this thread. I will give it a try from a different view.

First, you maximum risk (loss) per day is 480 pips or $4,800 (4 times 50 and 4 times 70). That's 9.6% with a $50,000 account. That's a lot of risk. Mostly for good money management you will get the advice not to risk 2% per trade. The maximum risk per trade is 70 pips (1.4%), so less than 2%. I prefer to calculate my daily risk and 9.6% is high. The last 60 trading days my biggest loss was 253 pips (5.06%). My second biggest loss was 234 pips (4.68%) and my third biggest loss was 186 pips (3.72%). More than 5% loss per day is still a lot of money, but I am willing to take that risk. My W/L ratio is 1.74 so far, that's one of the reasons.

Second, I have to look to the drawdowns. My biggest drawdown was 449 pips (8.98%). Suppose the worst is yet to come and it will be twice the drawdown I already have experienced, I have to overcome a drawdown of 900 pips (18%). I think the system can overcome such kind of drawdowns.

Last, the Kelly value is 0.1969. This means you can put almost 20% of your capital in a single trade.
From all of the reasons above I conclude you need about $50,000 to trade this system comfortable and from a realistic point of view.

Hans

Kaffee, I appreciate you're quoting HANS123 here, but a correction is needed.

Kelly is often quoted as a basis for risk calculation without taking into account the proviso (which is an integral part of Kelly) that max drawdown is a limiting factor in position sizing. Rather than take a finger in the air 'Suppose the worst is yet to come and it will be twice the drawdown I already have experienced' and using the statistically more relevant actual drawdown to date (8.98%) and using the advised 80% of that AND assuming you're only going to have this one trade on, the actual amount Hans, or anyone else, might want to consider risking in Kelly's name is 7.18% of their total trading capital - not 20%.

I don't use Kelly, and if you're the sort of bod who's going to consider risking 7% on any one trade you may as well go for 20% (or even 100%), but if Kelly is going to be quoted, or more importantly, actually used in deciding your position size, it would make sense to use the entire formula and the correct one.

 

[Baruch]

Heads up! Very important data for US durable goods in 3 min. Consensus: 1.0

 

[FetteredChinos]

baruch, i dont know what charts you are looking at, but ive got a 20 pip intraday GAP on mine..

and now its starting to slide...

7840 being defended for dear life..

 

[FetteredChinos]

lol and now you delete your post...

 

[Baruch]

baruch, i dont know what charts you are looking at, but ive got a 20 pip intraday GAP on mine..

and now its starting to slide...

7840 being defended for dear life..

I trade the news with euro, because of the smaller spread. I can exit my position more easy (and cheap) with euro. Data was mixed - that's why we get this rebound.